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  • Your Capping Style

    I'm kind of wondering how people on this site handicap their games (I'm not asking for systems or setting practices).

    Do you cap by feel?

    Do you set lines by stats?

    Do you just gamble and pick by flipping a lucky coin or something?

    Do you exclusively play systems and trends?

    Do you use a combination of these things and if so what kind of combo???

    I'm just trying to get an idea for how other people set their lines. Mostly my methods include a mixture of str8 system trends and stats. I do use some "feel" when determining Home court advantage in the NBA because of how important it is in that particular sport however this is partly determined by rest and stats also so it isnt entirely "feel". I strictly do not "gamble" and dont believe in "luck". I'd say I'm a stat monger and love setting my lines using them because they are the only concrete evidence that we have to try and set better lines than Vegas...

    Thoughts??? Replies please...

    PK
    No thrills, frills, spills or write-ups. Just givin ya the winners everyday.

  • #2
    stats and trends

    Comment


    • #3
      TO TELL YOU THE TRUTH THIS IS HOW I DO IT

      MLB

      I LOOK AT THE STATS EVERY WAY I CAN FROM RECORDS AGAINST THE RIGHTY/LEFTY DAY/NIGHT INDOOR/OUTDOOR AND ONE THING OVERLOOKED BY MANY BUT I FIND VERY USEFUL IS THE HOMEPLATE UMPIRE AND HOW HE CALLS A GAME FOR INSTANCE A GREG MADDUX VERSES COLE HAMELS MATCHUP IN SAN DIEGO AT NIGHT WITH THE PHILLIES -150 SEEMS LIKE A DECENT NUMBER WITH AN AVERAGE UMPIRE BEHIND THE PLATE BUT IF YOU GET A PITCHERS UMPIRE THAT GIVES MADDUX THE CORNERS AND LETS HIM WORK +140 WOULD BE A STEAL.ON THE OTHER HAND AN UMPIRE THAT MAKES YOU THROW STRIKES AND DOES NOT GIVE THE CORNER STRIKE THEN -150 WOULD BE A STEAL.

      HAD A WINNING SEASON IN BASEBALL EVERY YEAR BUT ITS ALOT OF HARD WORK


      COLLEGE HOOPS AND NBA SIMPLE FOR ME TAKES LESS THAN 30 MIN TO LOOK AT THE CARD.IF SOMETHING LOOKS STRANGE I PLAY THE OTHER WAY.I KNOW HOW TEAMS PLAY AND IF SOMETHING LOOKS LIKE THE LINE SHOULD BE DIFFERENT PLAY AGAINST IT

      AVERAGE SUCSESS

      NFL
      STATS AND TRENDS ALOT LIKE BASEBALL JUST NOT THAT IN DEPTH


      NCAA FOOTBALL

      THE CLOSEST TO BASEBALL AS IN WORK.I GO THROUGH THE SAGRAIN {spellling?} RATINGS AND SEE IF A LINE IS WAY OFF MEANING A TD OR MORE IF SO TRY AND LOOK AT INJURIES AND FIND OUT WHY.COLLEGE FOOTBALL MORE THAN ANY SPORT IS HARD TO FIND INJURY INFO ON THAT IS WHY I CHECK ALOT OF LOCAL PAPERS AND COLLEGE WEBSITES TO FIND OUT AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE.IF THE RATINGS ARE ABOUT EVEN FOR THE GAME I PASS ON IT UNLESS I JUST HAVE A GUT FEELING OR ITS A MOTIVATION GAME ALOT LIKE FLA LAST YEAR AGAINST GEORGIA.AFTER GEORGIA STORMED THE END ZONE AFTER THAT 1ST TD I KNEW THAT WAS EXTRA MOTIVATION FOR FLA THIS YEAR.

      ALL IN ALL I CAN TELL THAT THE MORE WORK I DO THE BETTER I DO ONLY THING IS HOOPS IS MY LEAST FAVORITE AND ITS HARD TO DO THE EXTRA RESEARCH WHEN YOU DONT CARE AS MUCH ABOUT THE SPORT HOPE THIS HELPS
      MLB 2012***100-98 +$215 OR +2.15 UNITS
      HUGE PLAYS 2-1

      NFL 2011-2012** 6-10
      0-0TOP PLAYS

      NCAA FBL 2011-2012**** 26-23

      4-1 TOP PLAYS


      GOY 33-12 ALL SPORTS

      AS of 6/3/12

      Comment


      • #4
        Stats, injuries, trends, weather in MLB and football.

        I like to use stats and injuries to get a preliminary picture. Then, I check to see if any leans I have are backed up by strong trends, especially the strong recent trends.

        Weather is huge when considering bases or foots but especially when I'm thinking about a total in either of those sports.

        And, like Tech says, umpire tendencies are huge in bases!
        Last edited by Udog; 02-09-2009, 09:43 AM.

        Comment


        • #5
          Thanks a lot to the guys who replied here. This is some tremendous info. Particularly the Bases stuff since I have ZERO idea on how to cap them. Professional Basketball and Football have kinda come easy.

          Basketball is great because the amount of scoring provided makes most games come down to the wire where we really need to look at who the best closing team is. Also...The speed a team plays with is very important since if a quicker team is on a days rest and playing another team who is on a back-to-back then they will gain a distinct advantage. Home court advantage is most prevalent in BB compared to most other sports.

          Football is probably the easiest sport IMO. Home field is a pretty limited advantage so there isnt much to look at there. And the games can be almost scripted from beginning to end on how many scoring drives each team will be able to muster.

          PK
          No thrills, frills, spills or write-ups. Just givin ya the winners everyday.

          Comment


          • #6
            I just tail Kaptain...he is a proven winner and I suck at it.

            I guess my style would be if you can't beat them yourself, find someone that can!
            Best of Luck Everyone

            2012 Record:

            1 unit = $100


            ***All sides and totals -110 unless noted***

            ***Teasers are -120 & 7 Points on Sides and 5 Points on Totals ties push****

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Pitt37 View Post
              I just tail Kaptain...he is a proven winner and I suck at it.

              I guess my style would be if you can't beat them yourself, find someone that can!
              LOL...I figured someone would say something like this. Love it.

              PK
              No thrills, frills, spills or write-ups. Just givin ya the winners everyday.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by poskid View Post
                LOL...I figured someone would say something like this. Love it.

                PK

                OR COVERBOY IN FOOTBALL
                MLB 2012***100-98 +$215 OR +2.15 UNITS
                HUGE PLAYS 2-1

                NFL 2011-2012** 6-10
                0-0TOP PLAYS

                NCAA FBL 2011-2012**** 26-23

                4-1 TOP PLAYS


                GOY 33-12 ALL SPORTS

                AS of 6/3/12

                Comment


                • #9
                  In all seriousness...I am doing that this season in basketball. The last few years I have sucked at hoops and blow my football profit within a month or two of the basketball season.
                  This year I am just relying on Kaptain to turn a profit for me this season in hoops. Hopefully he does well and I can tail him in baseball.

                  Now football is a whole other story.

                  I use, weather, schedule, trends, stats, coaching, injuries and travel.
                  I spend alot of time looking at the ins and outs of the games. I wouldn't say I have a formula but I just look at the game piece by piece and if I get enough pluses for one side then I take it.
                  Best of Luck Everyone

                  2012 Record:

                  1 unit = $100


                  ***All sides and totals -110 unless noted***

                  ***Teasers are -120 & 7 Points on Sides and 5 Points on Totals ties push****

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    pop that pxxxy,make that pxxxy pop !!

                    snort or pop lots of mood-altering chemicals then i use the force !!
                    DON'T YOU EAT THE YELLOW SNOW !! PS-MARVIN LOVES SPLIT SALAD !!

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Pitt37 View Post
                      In all seriousness...I am doing that this season in basketball. The last few years I have sucked at hoops and blow my football profit within a month or two of the basketball season.
                      This year I am just relying on Kaptain to turn a profit for me this season in hoops. Hopefully he does well and I can tail him in baseball.

                      Now football is a whole other story.

                      I use, weather, schedule, trends, stats, coaching, injuries and travel.
                      I spend alot of time looking at the ins and outs of the games. I wouldn't say I have a formula but I just look at the game piece by piece and if I get enough pluses for one side then I take it.
                      You will hear no complaints from me man. I supplement my own capping by using Kapt's picks as well. I almost always take his 20*'s. Supplementing a weaker sport with a stronger capper's takes is not a bad move. Hell...I couldnt figure out college BB if my life depended on it.

                      PK
                      No thrills, frills, spills or write-ups. Just givin ya the winners everyday.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by WayneChung View Post
                        snort or pop lots of mood-altering chemicals then i use the force !!
                        for some reason I am 100% not surprised

                        PK
                        No thrills, frills, spills or write-ups. Just givin ya the winners everyday.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Stats and common sense. Or at least I try on the second one, haha. I HATE trends. Most of them have nothing to with anything. For instance "Since 1985 AFC teams travelling 3 time zones after travelling 2 time to face an NFC opponent playing their second straight home game are 20-2 ATS." To me, none of that has ANYTHING to do with the current game about to be played.
                          O..H.........I..O!

                          2010 NCAA Football: 4-3-1

                          2010 NFL: 0-0

                          2009-2010 NCAA Basketball: 30-23-1

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by poskid View Post
                            for some reason I am 100% not surprised

                            PK
                            JOKES ASIDE p-kid,college foots my best sport,have had two really good seasons in a row posting here,with the other sports,i post,if i'm hitting,i continue to post,if i lose,take a break for awhile,in other words,try to play on the house money !!
                            DON'T YOU EAT THE YELLOW SNOW !! PS-MARVIN LOVES SPLIT SALAD !!

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by ULikeApples View Post
                              Stats and common sense. Or at least I try on the second one, haha. I HATE trends. Most of them have nothing to with anything. For instance "Since 1985 AFC teams travelling 3 time zones after travelling 2 time to face an NFC opponent playing their second straight home game are 20-2 ATS." To me, none of that has ANYTHING to do with the current game about to be played.
                              Couldnt agree more...read what I wrote in this touts thread in the service section when he came up with some other similar type of

                              http://www.bettorschat.com/forums/sp...-my-hands.html
                              SOBER SINCE MARCH 28TH OF 2007!!!

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