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DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT SUNDAY’S SUPER BOWL
We’ve come to our final weekend article about what the sharps are thinking about NFL football. Well, the final one for THIS season. The popularity of these pieces will guarantee that we’ll be doing then for you next season as well. September will be here before you know it.
This time around, it’s very easy.
THE SHARPS LOVE ARIZONA
THE SHARPS LOVE THE UNDER
Why do the sharps like ARIZONA?
*Sharps always like underdogs anyway, to it’s natural.
*They also believe this particular line is inflated. Most guys I talked to had Pittsburgh about 4 points better on a neutral field in their power ratings. They had the difference a shade bigger before the playoffs started. But, Arizona has earned their respect with three straight underdog victories. Arizona was better than the number in all three playoff outings. If you adjust your pre-playoff numbers for that, it’s very difficult to make Pittsburgh a seven-point favorite. Pittsburgh could still win by more than that. The Power Ratings will show less than a TD, and sharps bet their ratings.
*The fact that a critical number was involved encouraged early action from the sharps. A lot of games land exactly on seven…so, if you’re making a big bet, you would sure rather have seven than six-and-a-half. There was some early hope that the public would drive Pittsburgh up over a touchdown. That doesn’t seem to be happening, though things could change this weekend.
*Arizona has a veteran quarterback in Kurt Warner, and sharps love taking points with veteran quarterbacks. A lot of sharps liked rookie Joe Flacco of Baltimore last week. If they’ll back a rookie in a big game with points, you know they wont’ have any qualms about taking a proven quantity like Warner.
*The NY Giants won out as an underdog last year, proving that it’s possible for an unheralded team to play well in a Super Bowl and win it. There really isn’t any fear in sharps about this play. We’re talking about people at the top end of the confidence scale anyway. Sharps liked Arizona on the opener and don’t appear to have even given the game a second thought. If the Giants can beat the 18-0 Patriots, the Cardinals can surely hang with Pittsburgh.
*Sharps aren’t impressed with Ben Roethlisberger as a blowout quarterback. He makes a lot of mistakes. And is prone to have several drives end in turnovers or punts. Pittsburgh’s great defense bails him out time and time again. This year, that has resulted in a lot of very close victories. If your M.O. is to win close games, then seven points is an awfully high number.
I should mention that a lot of sharps are playing Pittsburgh on the moneyline to win the game straight up, but Arizona plus the points. That creates a huge seven-point middle. More than 40 years of Super Bowls have shown that the public tends to bet favorites on the spread…but underdogs to win outright on the moneyline hoping for the big payout.
Sportsbooks typically shade the numbers against those tendencies. Sharps saw the math possibilities, and have been aiming at the middle for a few years now. That cost them dearly last year when they stepped out too heavily on the Patriots at a very high price to win outright. Probably the only joy sportsbook operators had last year in the big game (the first losing Super Bowl Sunday for them in more than a decade) was seeing a bunch of arrogant sharps walking around in a daze after the Patriots lost.
I’m not going to talk about props in today’s article. There are just too many to consider! I can tell you that the sharps have been focusing on Pittsburgh players to underachieve their expectations as a general rule. There are a few guys who play the “bridge jumper” plays that are -1000 on the moneyline or worse but don’t happen often in Super Bowls. They bet on no overtime, no safeties, no blocked punts. It’s worked very well for them in recent years. Bet a lot to make a little on stuff that probably won’t happen. If this game sees a safety and an overtime, then a lot of sharps will take a big hit. I can’t recommend that strategy for smaller gamblers even if the math is favorable. I won’t encourage people with smaller bankrolls to take big risks.
Why do sharps like the UNDER?
*Most made this game around 44-45. Super Bowl totals are often inflated because there was a long stretch of games that flew Over the total. The public loves Overs, so they made a killing during this period. Scoring has calmed down in recent years…but there’s still some total inflation. Sharps wanted to take advantage by playing the Under.
*Pittsburgh has a great defense. It’s just not a team that plays high scoring shootouts. They play low-scoring defensive battles as a general rule. If a team has a lot of games totaled in the 30’s…a number like 47 or 46.5 is going to seem huge.
*Veteran quarterbacks are very smart about running the clock. If EITHER team gets a big lead, they’re likely to sit on it. That could lead to a quiet fourth quarter that bails out an Under play in a game that might have looked like it was going Over. The modern game is much lower scoring in big games than it was 10 or 20 years ago because of this. *Pittsburgh had trouble offensively in their last game after Hines Ward was knocked out with an injury. He’s probably not going to be at 100% on Sunday even if he plays. Sharps typically bet the Under when any key offensive threat is hurt, figuring that has to be worth something….and if you bet 100 “worth something’s” you’re going to go better than 50/50. This particular factor influenced the team side affection for Arizona too.
WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT SUNDAY’S SUPER BOWL
We’ve come to our final weekend article about what the sharps are thinking about NFL football. Well, the final one for THIS season. The popularity of these pieces will guarantee that we’ll be doing then for you next season as well. September will be here before you know it.
This time around, it’s very easy.
THE SHARPS LOVE ARIZONA
THE SHARPS LOVE THE UNDER
Why do the sharps like ARIZONA?
*Sharps always like underdogs anyway, to it’s natural.
*They also believe this particular line is inflated. Most guys I talked to had Pittsburgh about 4 points better on a neutral field in their power ratings. They had the difference a shade bigger before the playoffs started. But, Arizona has earned their respect with three straight underdog victories. Arizona was better than the number in all three playoff outings. If you adjust your pre-playoff numbers for that, it’s very difficult to make Pittsburgh a seven-point favorite. Pittsburgh could still win by more than that. The Power Ratings will show less than a TD, and sharps bet their ratings.
*The fact that a critical number was involved encouraged early action from the sharps. A lot of games land exactly on seven…so, if you’re making a big bet, you would sure rather have seven than six-and-a-half. There was some early hope that the public would drive Pittsburgh up over a touchdown. That doesn’t seem to be happening, though things could change this weekend.
*Arizona has a veteran quarterback in Kurt Warner, and sharps love taking points with veteran quarterbacks. A lot of sharps liked rookie Joe Flacco of Baltimore last week. If they’ll back a rookie in a big game with points, you know they wont’ have any qualms about taking a proven quantity like Warner.
*The NY Giants won out as an underdog last year, proving that it’s possible for an unheralded team to play well in a Super Bowl and win it. There really isn’t any fear in sharps about this play. We’re talking about people at the top end of the confidence scale anyway. Sharps liked Arizona on the opener and don’t appear to have even given the game a second thought. If the Giants can beat the 18-0 Patriots, the Cardinals can surely hang with Pittsburgh.
*Sharps aren’t impressed with Ben Roethlisberger as a blowout quarterback. He makes a lot of mistakes. And is prone to have several drives end in turnovers or punts. Pittsburgh’s great defense bails him out time and time again. This year, that has resulted in a lot of very close victories. If your M.O. is to win close games, then seven points is an awfully high number.
I should mention that a lot of sharps are playing Pittsburgh on the moneyline to win the game straight up, but Arizona plus the points. That creates a huge seven-point middle. More than 40 years of Super Bowls have shown that the public tends to bet favorites on the spread…but underdogs to win outright on the moneyline hoping for the big payout.
Sportsbooks typically shade the numbers against those tendencies. Sharps saw the math possibilities, and have been aiming at the middle for a few years now. That cost them dearly last year when they stepped out too heavily on the Patriots at a very high price to win outright. Probably the only joy sportsbook operators had last year in the big game (the first losing Super Bowl Sunday for them in more than a decade) was seeing a bunch of arrogant sharps walking around in a daze after the Patriots lost.
I’m not going to talk about props in today’s article. There are just too many to consider! I can tell you that the sharps have been focusing on Pittsburgh players to underachieve their expectations as a general rule. There are a few guys who play the “bridge jumper” plays that are -1000 on the moneyline or worse but don’t happen often in Super Bowls. They bet on no overtime, no safeties, no blocked punts. It’s worked very well for them in recent years. Bet a lot to make a little on stuff that probably won’t happen. If this game sees a safety and an overtime, then a lot of sharps will take a big hit. I can’t recommend that strategy for smaller gamblers even if the math is favorable. I won’t encourage people with smaller bankrolls to take big risks.
Why do sharps like the UNDER?
*Most made this game around 44-45. Super Bowl totals are often inflated because there was a long stretch of games that flew Over the total. The public loves Overs, so they made a killing during this period. Scoring has calmed down in recent years…but there’s still some total inflation. Sharps wanted to take advantage by playing the Under.
*Pittsburgh has a great defense. It’s just not a team that plays high scoring shootouts. They play low-scoring defensive battles as a general rule. If a team has a lot of games totaled in the 30’s…a number like 47 or 46.5 is going to seem huge.
*Veteran quarterbacks are very smart about running the clock. If EITHER team gets a big lead, they’re likely to sit on it. That could lead to a quiet fourth quarter that bails out an Under play in a game that might have looked like it was going Over. The modern game is much lower scoring in big games than it was 10 or 20 years ago because of this. *Pittsburgh had trouble offensively in their last game after Hines Ward was knocked out with an injury. He’s probably not going to be at 100% on Sunday even if he plays. Sharps typically bet the Under when any key offensive threat is hurt, figuring that has to be worth something….and if you bet 100 “worth something’s” you’re going to go better than 50/50. This particular factor influenced the team side affection for Arizona too.
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