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**StarDust Bum** · 01-28-2009, 10:58 AM

Five Stats You Should Know

Sometimes it is the unknown or smaller stats that can make a difference in locating the Super Bowl winner. Matt Fargo takes a look at five categories you might not know about.

Sacks

When you talk about sacks, you automatically think about the Steelers because that is what the media has thrown at you. You will probably be surprised to know that the Cardinals are +3 in net sacks this season while the Steelers are +2 in net sacks. It isn’t a huge difference but Pittsburgh and its defense are being portrayed as the team that will be able to dominate in that category.

Cardinals left tackle Mike Gandy is far from in the spotlight but he has made life a lot easier for quarterback Kurt Warner. He has started 35 straight games since joining the Cardinals in 2007 and this year gave up only 6.5 sacks with just one holding penalty.

Winning the battle of the sacks usually means a Super bowl win. In the last 13 Super Bowls, the sack leader won 12 of those games and went 8-3-2 ATS. Edge Even.

Redzone

People tend to look at yardage and points but fail to look inside those numbers to see where they come from. Redzone scoring is where games are won and lost Pittsburgh is in good shape.

Despite having the 3rd ranked scoring offense, Arizona is 9th in redzone touchdown percentage at a 58.5 percent clip. The Steelers are 15th at 55.1 percent. The difference here is that the Cardinals scored 72 more redzone points while having 16 more possessions inside the 20-yard line.

Defensively, the Steelers were an NFL best, allowing redzone touchdowns only 33.3 percent of the time while Arizona allowed touchdowns 63.6 percent of the time which was 5th worst. The point differential amounted to 124 more points allowed by Arizona. Edge Pittsburgh.

Field Position

Field position is a pretty simple philosophy. A shorter field makes it easier on the offense and harder on the defense. These are two of the worst punting teams in the NFL as Arizona finished 31st in net punting while Pittsburgh finished 29th. The Cardinals however have the edge in punt returning, averaging 7.2 ypr while the Steelers averaged 6.0 ypr, 31st in the NFL.

In the Arizona 21-14 win last season against the Steelers, Cardinals receiver Steve Breaston ran a punt back for a touchdown which broke a 7-7 tie. Edge Arizona.

Defense Wins Championships

Past Super Bowls can give some significant information if you are in fact a history buff. Defenses have reigned supreme of late. The last four Super Bowl winners have allowed 15.5 ppg. The last eight Super Bowl winners have allowed 17 ppg. Of the 42 past Super Bowls, the losing team has scored 20 points or fewer 33 times.

What about the offense? The winning team has scored 30 points or more 21 times however, it has not happened since Super Bowl XXVIII. Based on this little bit of history, the defenses are in fact the catalysts and we know what that means here. Edge Pittsburgh.

Passer Rating

Of the 42 winning quarterbacks in Super Bowl history, 15 of those had passer ratings better than 100 throughout their playoff run. This included both Ben Roethlisberger in 2005 (101.6) and Kurt Warner in 1999 (100.0). Looking at this season, Roethlisberger has a passer rating of 90.5 while Warner has a passer rating of 111.9.

Considering Roethlisberger had a regular season rating of 80.1 while Warner had a rating of 96.9, this current pace is not surprising. If Warner keeps it up and wins the Super Bowl, it would be the 7th highest rating of all time. Keeping that pace will be difficult but achievable. Edge Arizona.
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**StarDust Bum** · 01-28-2009, 11:01 AM

Steelers' RBs vs. Cards' LBs

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We‘re moving full steam ahead as Sunday’s much anticipated show down in Tampa Bay inches ever so closer to kickoff. Do running backs Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore hold the key to Pittsburgh gaining control of its time of possession, thus swinging the ground game in the team’s favor? Or does Arizona’s three linebacker set flourish behind emerging start, Karlos Dansby?

Pittsburgh’s Running Backs

In only his second year in the NFL, “Fast” Willie Parker embraced his starting role in Super Bowl XL. Pittsburgh worked hard to grab its first SB victory since 1979, beating down Seattle, 21-10. And while All-Star wide out, Hines Ward (five receptions for 123 yards with one score) was awarded the MVP, it was Parker who collected 93 yards and one TD. With the score only 7-3 in the Steelers favor, Parker broke a 75-yard run in the third quarter, etching his name into history as the running back to register the largest run from scrimmage in Super Bowl history.

Three years later and the Steelers will once again entrust Parker to lead the running game. Some uncertainty definitely hangs above as the 28-year-old back out of North Carolina has struggled to recoup from a nagging knee injury in 2008 (and a broken leg in '07). Parker finished the regular season, rushing for 791 yards in 11 games (3.8 yards per attempt).

Then there’s Mewelde Moore. As backup to Parker, the five-foot-11, 209 pound running back chalked up 588 yards with five scores on 140 attempts. As rookie Rashard Mendenhall stepped off the field for the season in Week 4 due to a fractured shoulder, Moore became the go-to guy (especially with Parker’s knee problems).

Moore has also been a solid check off option, putting together 320 receiving yards and one TD on 40 receptions.

And look for third string rusher, Gary Russell to be implemented into the game plan. Moore suffered a right ankle sprain in the Conference Championship win over Baltimore (23-14), and while his status seems unaffected for the Super Bowl, Russell serves as another option in a worst case scenario.

Coming full circle, it’s necessary to note that the Steelers are 5-0 straight up and 3-2 against the spread when Parker has breeched the 100-yard mark on the ground. Even more important is Pitt’s perfect 4-0 SU and ATS mark when the star back had seen the end zone at least once in a game in both the regular and postseason.

Parker’s best outing this season came in the 35-24 win over San Diego in the divisional playoff game. His 146 yards and two scores came on 27 carries. However, Parker emerged from the 23-14 win over the Ravens with just 47 yards on 24 touches (just 2 yards per carry).

Arizona’s Linebackers

Let’s be honest, the Steelers emerge from this category as the best linebacker core in Super Bowl XLIII. But that means it’s very easy to overlook Arizona’s emerging talent.

Playing in the more conventional 4-3 defense (as opposed to Pittsburgh’s 3-4 defensive formation), the Cards will be looking to Karlos Dansby as the inspirational leader. The five-year linebacker out of Auburn finished the regular season with a career high, 119 tackles. Four sacks, two forced fumbles and two interceptions also proved that Dansby’s versatility is not to be overlooked.

Interesting enough, when Dansby was produced eight tackles or less, Arizona has put together an impressive 10-2 record. Producing more then eight tackles is good indication that the Cardinals defense is spending too much time on the field.

Cementing the foundation is middle linebacker , Gerald Hayes. Helping to plug the hole, Hayes has donated 88 tackles (67 solo) to the defensive cause, while forcing four fumbles throughout the regular season. In just the playoffs alone, Hayes is responsible for 12 tackles and one interception.

On the weak side of the field will be Chike Okeafor’s territory to patrol. The 10-year defensive end/linebacker brings with him experience and numbers to boot. Okeafor has produced 25 tackles in the last six outings, while 60 take downs (50 solo tackles), 4 ½-sacks and one interception should give us an indication of what’s to come in the Bowl.

Take into account that when the defensive effort has stepped up, allowing the run game to outyard opponents, Arizona has been able to secure four straight SU and ATS wins. This has translated into team’s scoring 20.8 PPG, while the ‘over’ has gone 3-1.

Who’s got the Edge?

You’d be hard pressed to go against the grain here. Hands down, Pittsburgh’s run game has been a tested group able to punch their way through defensive units when needed. But there have been instances when Parker has finished flat even when his health status has been cleared. This year has been Parker’s worst since joining the league in 2004 (rushed for 186 yards on 32 attempts in that first year in the NFL). When the two-time Pro Bowl running back has produced under 100-yards on the ground in eight games this season, he’s averaged just 45.5 yards per game.

If we’re talking about experience there’s no way that the Cardinals linebacker core could be in the same category as Pittsburgh’s but that’s not what’s up for debate. We have a young crew in Arizona hungry for a chance to prove themselves on the highest plateau in the NFL.

I’m just not sure that allowing a 19th ranked, 331.5 total YPG and a 16th ranked, 110.3 YPG on the ground tells the whole story of what the Cards will bring to the big game. If there’s been an argument to support it’s Arizona’s defense holding opponents to 77.3 YPG on the ground and giving up just two rushing scores during the postseason. Is this indication of a ‘D’ that’s undergone a tune-up in big games?

Edge: Steelers

**StarDust Bum** · 01-28-2009, 11:03 AM

Cards' RBs vs. Steelers' LBs

Super Bowl XLIII is less than a week away, meaning now is the time to really focus on some of the key aspects that will help determine the winner. This column is going to focus on the Arizona running backs against the Pittsburgh linebackers.

These two teams would not be playing in this game if it weren’t for the exploits of these two areas. To further help in breaking down these two key areas will be VegasInsider.com handicapper Mark Franco who correctly picked both conference finals.

Arizona is going to need a solid ground game to keep the Pittsburgh pass rush off of quarterback Kurt Warner. By running the ball effectively, it will open up the passing attack led by a quarterback that already has a Super Bowl MVP trophy on his resume. The Cardinals have won and covered all three of their playoff games this postseason behind an improving ground game.

Pittsburgh won the AFC North Division and advanced to the Super Bowl behind its dominating defense. The linebackers are a central part to the Steelers attack that includes the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. Whatever team controls this aspect of the game will probably hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy in Tampa Bay. Now let’s take a closer look at this matchup for Super Bowl XLIII.

Arizona’s Running Backs

Arizona’s ground game consists of veteran Edgerrin James and rookie Tim Hightower. James was benched during the season and didn’t get the touches he has been used to in his career. While the veteran complained about it at the time, it has turned out to be a blessing in disguise for the Cardinals. James is much healthier at this stage of the season, ranking 42nd in the league during the regular season with 133 carries for 514 yards for an average of 3.9 yards per carry. The 10-year veteran scored three touchdowns during that time.

“Arizona has run the ball 52 percent of the time in its three playoff games after running the ball only 35 percent during the regular season,” said Franco. “So look for the Cardinals to try to run the ball with try being the key word.”

James leads the postseason in rushing for 203 yards on 52 attempts (3.9 yards per carry average). The 30-year-old has averaged 17.3 carries during Arizona’s three playoff games, scoring one touchdown and recording 10 first downs.

The reason that James has been so fresh during the stretch run has been the exploits of Hightower, a rookie out of the University of Richmond. The 22-year-old had 143 carries during the regular season for 399 yards (2.8 yards per carry) along with 10 touchdowns. Hightower has accumulated 132 yards rushing in three postseason games on 34 carries (3.9 yards per carry average) with one touchdown and seven first downs.

The Cardinals have been doing most of their damage on the ground with their outside speed. Arizona ranked dead last in the league during the regular season in rushing with 1,178 yards on 340 attempts (73.6 yards per game) with 14 touchdowns.

Pittsburgh Linebackers

When you talk about Pittsburgh linebackers, you have to start with NFL Defensive Player of the Year James Harrison (101 tackles, 16 sacks). The Steelers 3-4 scheme ranked second in the league during the regular season in rush defense, allowing just 80.2 yards per game and an average of 3.3 yards per carry.

“Pittsburgh has what I consider the best linebacking group in the NFL,” stated Franco. “Looking at what the Steelers did this season versus on of the toughest schedules ever, you have to say that they are the best in the business.”

Pittsburgh’s defense ranked first during the regular season in points per game (13.9), yards allowed (237.2) and passing yards (156.9). Alongside Harrison in the 3-4 scheme is Larry Foote (63 tackles, 1.5 sacks), James Farrior (133 tackles, 3.5 sacks) and LaMarr Woodley (60 tackles, 11.5 sacks).

The Steelers continued their defensive dominance during their two postseason games, yielding an average of 44 yards per game rushing and an average of 2.4 yards per carry. Those performances occurred against San Diego’s Darren Sproles (11 carries, 15 yards) and Baltimore’s Willis McGahee (20 carries for 60 yards and two touchdowns).

“Pittsburgh will have to play most of the Super Bowl looking for the pass first because Warner will beat the Steelers deep if they don’t,” noted Franco. “This may help the rushing yardage totals for the Cardinals, but don’t look for any long runs against the Pittsburgh defense.”

What Team Has the Edge?

Defense wins championships, a formula Pittsburgh has used in five previous Super Bowl victories. The Steelers pride themselves on stopping the run, and Arizona’s ground game is not the strong point of its offense. Pittsburgh’s defense creates problems with its unorthodox 3-4 scheme highlighting four talented linebackers. The Steelers rushing defense ranked second in the league during the regular season, while Arizona’s ground game was last.

Expect to see the Cardinals pass the ball to open up their ground game, hoping to get enough out of the running attack to keep the Steelers pass rush honest. James and Hightower have provided another angle to Arizona’s high-octane passing offense of Kurt Warner, Anquan Bolden and Larry Fitzgerald. I see Arizona’s offense becoming one dimensional as the game progresses, with the Cardinals’ running game against the Steelers’ linebackers being one of the biggest mismatches of Super Bowl XLIII.

Edge: Pittsburgh

**StarDust Bum** · 01-28-2009, 11:05 AM

Roethlisberger vs. Cards' Secondary

Rodney Dangerfield was probably the most famous when it comes to getting no respect. Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger, however, is catching up to Al Czervik himself in terms of a lack of admiration.

It practically started from the moment Roethlisberger came out of college. Fresh off of an unbeaten season and No. 10 ranking in the Associated Press poll, the former Miami (Ohio) gunslinger was picked 11th by the Steelers in the 2004 NFL Draft. But not too many harped on his selection. The experts were infatuated by the Giants and Chargers trading Philip Rivers and Eli Manning, who were both picked well ahead of Big Ben.

He made a name for himself in his rookie campaign by leading the Steelers to a 15-1 regular season and home field advantage in the AFC playoffs. Unfortunately for Roethlisberger, he ran into Tom Brady and the Patriots in the conference title game. Off to the shadows he went again.

Even when Big Ben did lead his club to a Super Bowl championship, he was overlooked. Although, I can’t blame anyone for doing it that time since he completed just nine of 21 passes for 123 yards and a pair of interceptions. Roethlisberger’s quarterback rating of 22.6 remains the lowest of any signal caller in a Super Bowl.

He’ll get a chance to avenge that performance as his Steelers are seven-point favorites against Arizona this Sunday in Tampa.

If you’re going by stats alone, Roethlisberger didn’t do a whole hell of a lot. He completed just over 59 percent of his passes for 3,301 yards with 17 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Not the kind of numbers you’d expect of a signal caller leading his squad into the biggest match of the season. And his 2-2 record against the NFC is sullied more by connecting on 48 of his 104 passes for 574 yards with two scores, six picks and 21 sacks.

So why would still take Big Ben in this battle? Well, Baltimore’s defensive lineman Trevor Pryce said it best, “Here’s my advice to the Arizona Cardinals: Don’t rush Ben Roethlisberger.” Pryce continued, “After that, he’s a playground football player. That’s what he is, and he’s a damn good one.”

Roethlisberger is one of the most stubborn competitors you’ll find on a football field nowadays. His 65-yard touchdown pass to Santonio Holmes against the Ravens in the AFC Title Game on Jan. 18 was pure improvisation. Plays like that have helped him lead all AFC quarterbacks in the playoffs with a 90.8 rating and the only starter in the postseason not to throw a pick.

You’d think that would be enough to get the edge against Arizona, but you’d think wrong. The Cardinals’ secondary looked more like matadors than they did football players during the regular season after ranking 22nd in passing yards per game (221.3), 17th in interceptions (13) and they gave up the most passing touchdowns (36).

These aren’t the same Cards that we saw from September to December though. Sure, Arizona is giving up more yards through the air (247.0 YPG) and the most passing touchdowns (6) of any team that qualified for the postseason. But they have been extremely opportunistic when it comes to forcing opposing gunslingers into mistakes as they have eight picks in the postseason. Those turnovers were quickly transformed into 23 points by Kurt Warner and the offense. That doesn’t even cover the fact that free safety Antrel Rolle ran back a fumble for a score against the Falcons in the Wild Card round.

The Cardinals have been able to get those turnovers thanks to the secondary clamping down on the oppositions top targets. Strong safety Adrian Wilson’s exploit during the year garnered him a spot in the Pro Bowl. But guys like rookie Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (15 tackles, seven passes defended, two interceptions), Roderick Hood (11 tackles, four passes defended, one pick) and Ralph Brown (two stops, two passes defended, two interceptions) have forced quarterbacks to be as accurate as possible.

Arizona also has the benefit of already facing off against Roethlisberger and Company last season. The Cardinals won that match as 5 ½-point home ‘dogs, 21-14 on Sept. 30. No doubt the knowledge that head coach Ken Whisenhunt and assistant Russ Grimm have of Pittsburgh came into play with that matchup as Big Ben had two interceptions and was sacked four times. Despite those miscues, Roethlisberger still completed 17 of 32 passes for 244 yards and a pair of scores.

Who Has the Edge?

The popular adage is that defense wins championships. I agree with that statement, but you have to believe that having a quarterback that doesn’t screw up is just as important. Roethlisberger has played mistake-free football leading into the Super Bowl. Yet he’s only gone at least three games straight without an interception on four occasions in his career.

Roethlisberger will get the chances to make the deep throws on the Cardinals, which he is known for doing. But a few of those passes will end up being slightly off the mark. That will give Arizona the chance to either knock the ball away or come up with a momentum shifting interception. Either way, Pittsburgh’s signal caller has his work cut out for him.

Edge: Arizona Secondary

**StarDust Bum** · 01-28-2009, 11:08 AM

Steelers' O-Line vs. Cards' D-Line

With two weeks between conference championship games and the Super Bowl, VegasInsider.com is stepping up once again to provide all the gaming aspects for Super Bowl XLIII. This column is going to focus on Pittsburgh’s offensive line against Arizona’s defensive front.

Most of the focus is usually on the quarterbacks and running backs, but games are won and lost in the trenches. Pittsburgh will win a record sixth Super Bowl title if the offensive line can create enough holes for the running game while also giving quarterback Ben Roethlisberger enough time to throw.

Arizona can complete its incredible Cinderella run if its defensive line can continue to play at a high level it has through the postseason. The Cardinals’ best chance at victory is to shut down the Steelers’ running attack and make the team one-dimensional. Arizona had exactly one playoff win before this postseason run during its 20 years in the desert, and the play of its defensive line could help this long-suffering franchise capture its first Super Bowl title.

Now let’s take a closer look at the Super Bowl XLIII war in the trenches between Pittsburgh’s offensive line and Arizona’s defensive line. To help us focus on this key matchup, I’ve enlisted the help of VegasInsider.com handicapper Jamie Tursini who has hit an incredible 71 percent of his pro football selections this season that includes a 43-17 record his last 60 selections.

Pittsburgh’s Offensive Line

Most teams have a chink in the armor, and Pittsburgh weakest point for the 2008 season has been its offensive line. The Steelers are in Super Bowl XLIII because of their top-ranked defense, overcoming an offense that ranked a disappointing 22nd in the league. Pittsburgh averaged just 21.7 points during the season, barely ahead of such teams as San Francisco (21.2) and Kansas City (18.2).

“The Steelers offensive line allowed 49 sacks during the regular season, and another five in their two playoff games,” noted Tursini. “They were great versus Baltimore, allowing just one sack while picking up the blitz all evening long.”

The Pittsburgh offensive line consists of center Justin Hartwig, right guard Darnell Stapleton, left guard Chris Kemoeatu, left tackle Max Starks, right tackle Willie Colon and tight end Heath Miller. The Steelers seemed to be digging out of a hole all season when Pro Bowl left tackle Alan Faneca signed as a free agent with the New York Jets.

The Steelers pride themselves on running the ball and stopping opponents’ ground game. While Pittsburgh was extremely successful in stopping the run, the team ranked 23rd during the regular season in rushing offense. The Steelers averaged 105.6 yards per contest, with an average of 3.7 yards per carry. Those numbers improved slightly during their two playoff games, rushing for an average of 108.5 yards in victories over San Diego and Baltimore.

Pittsburgh ranked 17th in passing yards because Roethlisberger didn’t have much time to throw. The five-year veteran threw 19 touchdowns and 15 interceptions this season while completing 60 percent of his passes.

“The offensive line seems to be giving Roethlisberger plenty of time now that they are healthy,” said Tursini. “With running back Willie Parker healthy once again, that gives this offense more options.”

Arizona’s Defensive Line

Arizona went a modest 9-7 straight up and against the spread during the regular season, winning the weak NFC West Division. However, the Cardinals caught fire at just the right time by winning three games in a row SU and ATS to reach this stage. Recent history has shown us that it is not the best team during the regular season that wins the big game, but the team that is peaking at just the right time.

Arizona’s regular season defensive numbers are average at best, but the team has hit another gear in its run to Super Bowl XLIII. The Cardinals ranked 19th during the regular campaign by yielding 26.6 points per game and 331.5 yards.

“The Arizona defense only had 31 sacks during the regular season,” stated Tursini. “The Cardinals have produced seven sacks through three playoff games.”

Arizona was 22nd in the league in pass defense by surrendering 221.2 yards per contest. The rush defense was rated 16th during the regular season by giving up 110.2 yards a game. If those numbers would have remained the same during the postseason, the Cardinals would be enjoying the Super Bowl from home.

In playoff victories over Atlanta, Carolina and Philadelphia, Arizona was reached for 324 yards per game and 20.7 points per contest. The Cardinals have clamped down by allowing just 77.3 yards a game on the ground, aided by the fact that they have jumped out to leads meaning opponents have had to pass the ball to catch up. With their opponents forced to pass, Arizona has recorded seven sacks this postseason.

“Last week versus the Eagles, Arizona rushed three players and dropped eight throughout the game and got little to no pressure,” said Tursini. “Donovan McNabb had plenty of time to throw, and if he hadn’t been off target throughout the first half, he would have thrown for close to 500 yards. Arizona will have to rethink the three-man rush versus Pittsburgh.”

What Team Has the Edge?

The marquee matchup for Super Bowl XLIII is the Arizona offense versus the Pittsburgh defense, the real reason these two teams are in this position. The Cardinals are in their first Super Bowl despite their defense, while the Steelers are in Tampa Bay with a flawed offense.

Despite their shortcomings, the Pittsburgh offensive line and Arizona defensive line have stepped up with improved play during the postseason. The team with the advantage in this spot will come down to coaching strategy. Pittsburgh will have the advantage in this area if Arizona drops eight players into coverage like it did in the NFC Championship Game. However, the Cardinals will have the advantage if they attack the Steelers line with blitzes in an attempt to stuff their run game much like Seattle did in Super Bowl XL.

Edge: Push

**StarDust Bum** · 01-28-2009, 11:10 AM

Steelers' D-line vs. Cards' O-line

Beginning this weekend and running through next week, Vegasinsider.com is committed to getting more then just a leg up on Super Bowl XLIII. All hands are on deck in the editorial department as we examine and re-examine every facet in this much anticipated showdown.

Let’s get this party started with a look into whether Pittsburgh’s defensive line has the advantage over Arizona’s offensive front (or vise versa). Just to stay on top of the figures, most books currently have Arizona as a seven-point underdog. A total of 46 ½ has remained unchanged.

Steelers D-Line

First off, we’re dealing with not only a D-line but a core of defensive players that finished the season first overall (13.9 PPG allowed and 237.2 YPG overall), first against the pass (156.9 YPG) and third against the run (80.3 YPG). The list goes on but you get the point.

The embedded base 3-4 formation is held together by defensive ends Aaron Smith (60 tackles), Brett Keisel (41 tackles) and nose tackle Casey Hampton (22 tackles). The combined 7 ½-sacks and six stuffs in the backfield may not be the best measurement of success, especially given the impact of the four linebackers that patrol behind the front three.

But however you want to look at it, the Steelers 21st century “Steel Curtin” ranks in just about every top spot in defensive statistical categories. The best way to breakdown the line is where this group in-fact failed to help garner the ‘W’?

Right off the bat we can see that five of the seven ATS losses during the regular season witnessed Pittsburgh giving up an average of 86.2 rushing YPG (6.2 YPG more then their season average of 80.3). But the real difference is allowing six rushing TDs in the seven total ATS losses (2-5 straight up) versus giving up just one score on the ground in nine ATS wins on the season.

And while we’ll also cover Pittsburgh’s fast attack from the outside linebackers later in the week, where would those backs be without the upfront support?

The three defensive anchors were also responsible for helping the team work for a plus-four turnover margin (nine fumble recoveries included). Providing the much needed support on the line of scrimmage, the Steelers’ defense finished the regular season with a second best, 51 sacks.

Combining the most recent 23-14 victory over Baltimore in the conference championship and its 33-13 demolition over San Diego in the divisional playoff meeting, Pittsburgh once again succeeded up front. We’re talking about the 3-4 defense holding both teams to a total of 88 rushing yards allowed (just 15 yards gained by the Chargers).

Even after holding their opponents to 14 ½-points per game (including the playoffs), the ‘over’ is 10-8 in ’08-09.

Arizona O-Line

The Cardinals offensive line isn’t the easiest to analyze. On one hand we have an Arizona team ranked last in the league, struggling for 73.6 YPG on the ground. Veteran running back Edgerrin James has found little room to work with. His 514 rushing yards and three trips into the end zone are the lowest stats to date in a career spanning 10 years.

In the grand scheme of things, we’re talking about a team who’s averaged a second worst, 3.5 yards per carry. But then again, a climatic 22 fumbles during the regular season takes away some of the blame from the offensive line.

Shifting over to the Cardinals’ passing game, that same offensive line has allowed QB Kurt Warner to chuck the pigskin for 4,583 yards (286.4 YPG) with 30 TDs and 14 interceptions. Although 26 sacks against Warner have marred the pass protection in this argument, it’s also worth mentioning that Arizona’s slinger isn’t the most mobile outside the pocket.

But there is a brighter side to this story.

In the playoffs, veteran lineman Mike Gandy and company have helped the offense make a 180 degree turnaround. During the regular season, the Cardinals ran the ball 340 times for an average of 21 carries per game. But in the playoffs, 33 touches per game has resulted in running the ball 52-percent of the time (compared to passing it 62-percent of the time during the regular season).

In wins against Atlanta, Carolina and Philadelphia during its postseason run, Arizona has outrushed the opponent for a total of 101 yards (33.7 YPG advantage). When the offensive line has paved the way for Edgerrin James to notch 70-plus yards on the ground, the Cards have gone 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS.

Who’s got the Edge?

The Steelers have been getting the job done with the same three defensive linemen since taking Super Bowl XL in 2005 (and beyond then with Aaron Smith logging in 10 years and Casey Hampton with eight years of Pittsburgh experience). Not much has changed in the way of defensive dominance since coach Bill Cowher left the team at the end of 2007.

Arizona’s offensive line success can only be traced back to the beginning of the playoffs. Sure, the Cards front four have opened the door for the rushing game to steam forward for 111 YPG in the last three games. But, this will be the toughest test and in the most important scenario this season. Can the offensive line rise to the occasion against considerable odds?

Edge: Steelers’ defensive line

**StarDust Bum** · 01-28-2009, 11:13 AM

Super Bowl History

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SUPER BOWL HISTORY
Superbowl Year Winner Winner's Line Loser Total Location
XLII 2008 New York Giants 17 +12 New England Patriots 14 55, UNDER Glendale, AZ
XLI 2007 Indianapolis Colts 29 -7 Chicago Bears 17 47, UNDER Miami, FL
XL 2006 Pittsburgh Steelers 21 -4 Seattle Seahawks 10 47, UNDER Detroit, MI
XXXIX 2005 New England Patriots 24 -7 Philadelphia Eagles 21 46.5, UNDER Jacksonville, FL
XXXVIII 2004 New England Patriots 32 -7 Carolina Panthers 29 37.5, OVER Houston, TX
XXXVII 2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48 +4 Oakland Raiders 21 44, OVER San Diego, CA
XXXVI 2002 New England Patriots 20 +14 St. Louis Rams 17 53, UNDER New Orleans, LA
XXXV 2001 Baltimore Ravens 34 -3 New York Giants 7 33, OVER Tampa, FL
XXXIV 2000 St. Louis Rams 23 -7 Tennessee Titans 16 47.5, UNDER Atlanta, GA
XXXIII 1999 Denver Broncos 34 -7.5 Atlanta Falcons 19 52.5, OVER Miami, FL
XXXII 1998 Denver Broncos 31 +11 Green Bay Packers 24 49, OVER San Diego, CA
XXXI 1997 Green Bay Packers 35 -14 New England Patriots 21 49, OVER New Orleans, LA
*** 1996 Dallas Cowboys 27 -13.5 Pittsburgh Steelers 17 51, UNDER Tempe, AZ
XXIX 1995 San Francisco 49ers 49 -18.5 San Diego Chargers 26 53.5, OVER Miami, FL
XXVIII 1994 Dallas Cowboys 30 -10.5 Buffalo Bills 13 50.5, UNDER Atlanta, GA
XXVII 1993 Dallas Cowboys 52 -6.5 Buffalo Bills 17 44.5, OVER Pasadena, CA
XXVI 1992 Washington Redskins 37 -7 Buffalo Bills 24 49, OVER Minneapolis, MN
XXV 1991 New York Giants 20 +7 Buffalo Bills 19 40.5, UNDER Tampa, FL
XXIV 1990 San Francisco 49ers 55 -12 Denver Broncos 10 48, OVER New Orleans, LA
XXIII 1989 San Francisco 49ers 20 -7 Cincinnati Bengals 16 48, UNDER Miami, FL
XXII 1988 Washington Redskins 42 +3 Denver Broncos 10 47, OVER San Diego, CA
XXI 1987 New York Giants 39 -9.5 Denver Broncos 20 40, OVER Pasadena, CA
XX 1986 Chicago Bears 46 -10 New England Patriots 10 37.5, OVER New Orleans, LA
XIX 1985 San Francisco 49ers 38 -3.5 Miami Dolphins 16 53.5, OVER Stanford, CA
XVIII 1984 LA Raiders 38 +3 Washington Redskins 9 48, UNDER Tampa, FL
XVII 1983 Washington Redskins 27 +3 Miami Dolphins 17 36.5, OVER Pasadena, CA
XVI 1982 San Francisco 49ers 26 -1 Cincinnati Bengals 21 48, UNDER Pontiac, MI
XV 1981 Oakland Raiders 27 +3 Philadelphia Eagles 10 37.5, UNDER New Orleans, LA
XIV 1980 Pittsburgh Steelers 31 -10.5 Los Angeles Rams 19 36, OVER Pasadena, CA
XIII 1979 Pittsburgh Steelers 35 -3.5 Dallas Cowboys 31 37, OVER Miami, FL
XII 1978 Dallas Cowboys 27 -6 Denver Broncos 10 39, UNDER New Orleans, LA
XI 1977 Oakland Raiders 32 -4 Minnesota Vikings 14 38, OVER Pasadena, CA
X 1976 Pittsburgh Steelers 21 -7 Dallas Cowboys 17 36, OVER Miami, FL
IX 1975 Pittsburgh Steelers 16 -3 Minnesota Vikings 6 33, UNDER New Orleans, LA
VIII 1974 Miami Dolphins 24 -6.5 Minnesota Vikings 7 33, UNDER Houston, TX
VII 1973 Miami Dolphins 14 -1 Washington Redskins 7 33, UNDER Los Angeles, CA
VI 1972 Dallas Cowboys 24 -6 Miami Dolphins 3 34, UNDER New Orleans, LA
V 1971 Baltimore Colts 16 -2.5 Dallas Cowboys 13 36, UNDER Miami, FL
IV 1970 Kansas City Chiefs 23 +12 Minnesota Vikings 7 39, UNDER New Orleans, LA
III 1969 New York Jets 16 +18 Baltimore Colts 7 40, UNDER Miami, FL
II 1968 Green Bay Packers 33 -13.5 Oakland Raiders 14 43, OVER Miami, FL
I 1967 Green Bay Packers 35 -14 Kansas City Chiefs 10 NL Los Angeles, CA

**jbaker1564** · 01-28-2009, 12:56 PM

Reading through all this stuff has made my head spin. I'm going to bet the team that I think is better. From what I watched all year, I'm putting my hard earned money on the Steelers, a team who has 20 experienced players that have been through it once.

Good Luck deciphering

**StarDust Bum** · 01-28-2009, 03:34 PM

......GO with the gut nutting wrong with that......

This was just some information to read up on........

**StarDust Bum** · 01-29-2009, 10:01 AM

Special Teams

Special teams are often overlooked even though they play a major factor in big games. How often is an important contest decided by a field goal? Huge momentum swings can take place with a blocked kick or a returned punt. If Arizona and Pittsburgh play to a stalemate in Super Bowl XLIII, then the spotlight will really focus on special teams.

The purpose of this article is to break down the Arizona and Pittsburgh kickers, punters and kick returners to see which team has an edge. To further help analyze this often overlooked aspect, I’ve employed the services of VegasInsider.com handicapper Paul Bovi who has a stellar 5-0 record this postseason and a 13-2 ledger his previous 15 selections overall. Bovi has been especially successful in handicapping totals, an aspect that is often affected by teams’ play on the special teams.

Now let’s take a closer look at all the special teams aspects that will affect the outcome for Super Bowl XLIII.

Arizona kickers

Arizona kicker Neil Rackers had 28 field goal attempts in 2008, converting 25 times for a solid 89 percent. His longest made attempt of the year was from 54 yards on the road against Seattle in mid-November. One field goal this season was blocked, but he was an unblemished 44-of-44 on extra-point attempts.

“Rackers, at 77 percent lifetime, is five percentage points lower than (Jeff) Reid over his career,” stated Bovi. “While the nine-year veteran did enjoy a breakout season in 2005 by converting 40-of-42 kicks, he has faltered at times during pressure situations.”

The veteran ranked 20th in the league during the regular season, making all nine of his field-goal attempts from 20-29 yards. Rackers connected at a solid 82-percent clip (9-of-11) from 30-39 yards, and 6-of-6 when kicking from 40-49 yards. The 32-year-old only had two attempts over 50 yards this season, making 1-of-2.

Rackers saw his kicking percentage take a slight hit during the postseason, going 5-of-7 (71 percent) with a long of 49 yards. The former Illinois Illini kicker was unblemished from 20-29 yards (1-of-1), 30-39 yards (2-of-2) and 40-49 yards (2-of-2) while missing both attempts from over 50 yards.

Rackers was tied for 30th in the league regarding kickoffs, kicking off 90 times for 5,699 yards with only one ball kicked out of bounds. The nine-year veteran had an average of 63.3 yards per kickoff, with 15 touchbacks.

Rackers stepped up his game like the rest of the Cardinals when the postseason rolled around, and was involved in more kickoffs compliments of an explosive offense. The 6-foot-1 kicker had 18 kickoffs for 1,143 yards with one out-of-bounds for an average of 63.5 yards per kick. This year was Racker’s first postseason experience after spending three years with the Cincinnati Bengals (2000-02) and the last six seasons with Arizona (2003-2008).

Pittsburgh Kickers

Pittsburgh’s Jeff Reed was 27-of-31 (87 percent) on field-goal attempts, with no blocks occurring this season. His longest successful kick was from 53 yards in Week 3 at Philadelphia.

The seven-year veteran was perfect from 1-19 yards (1-of-1), 9-of-9 from 20-29 yards, 8-of-9 from 30-39, 8-of-10 from 40-49 yards and 1-of-2 from 50 plus. He did miss one extra point during the regular season, going 36-of-37.

Reed connected on all three of his field goal attempts this postseason, with a long of 46 yards against Baltimore. The former North Carolina Tar Heels kicker was 1-of-1 from 30-39 yards and 2-of-2 from 40-49 yards. He has played all seven of his seasons in Pittsburgh, and was a member of the Super Bowl XL winning squad.

Reed had 79 kickoffs for 4,943 yards with one kick going out of bounds during the regular season. The veteran had just nine touchbacks (11 percent), while 68 kicks were returned for an average of 19.3 yards. He had just one onside kick during the year. Reed ranked ahead of just three other kickers this postseason with 12 kickoffs and no touchbacks, with the average return on those kicks going for 21.4 yards.

“The Steelers have the top-ranked coverage team on kickoffs,” said Bovi. “Pittsburgh also ranks a solid third in covering punts.”

Arizona Punting

Arizona punter Ben Graham returned from an injury and kicked the last four weeks of the regular season, and all three postseason games. The Australian had 15 punts against Atlanta, Carolina and Philadelphia for an average of 39.9 yards per kick. His long was for 53 yards against the Panthers, while his net average for those games was just 35.1 yards. Nine of his kicks were downed inside the 20-yard-line, while five punts were returned for 53 yards.

Pittsburgh Punting

Pittsburgh’s Mitch Berger was called on 66 times this season, punting the ball 2,728 yards with a net of 2,405 yards. The Canadian native had an average punt of 41.3 yards, with his longest being 61 yards. Berger kicked 19 balls inside the 20-yard line with four touchbacks.

His postseason numbers were similar, punting 11 times for 456 yards with a net of 367. His longest punt was for 51 yards, but his average kick was 41.5 yards. Berger had nine of his punts returned, while one was downed and the other was a touchback.

“The weakness for both teams has to be in the punting game where both Berger and Graham have proven erratic,” noted Bovi. “Graham has seen 21 of his 37 punts returned for an average of 16 yards, and his net of 33.8 yards per punt was two yards less than Berger’s.”

Arizona kick returners

Running back J.J Arrington had 36 kick returns during the regular campaign for 923 yards and an average of 25.6 yards per return. The 26-year-old did return one for a touchdown that went for 93 yards, and had three runs for over 40 yards.

The postseason saw Arrington have seven returns for 148 yards and an average of 21.1 yards per attempt. Wide receiver Steve Breaston contributed with two kick returns in the playoffs for 41 yards (20.5 yards per return average). The former Michigan Wolverine also had five punt returns for 25 yards with a long of 11 yards.

Pittsburgh kick returners

Pittsburgh running back Gary Russell had 16 returns during the regular season for 371 yards and an average of 23.2 yards per return. His longest return was 43 yards, while eight returns were over 20 yards. The second-year player had four kickoff returns during the playoffs for 78 yards and an average of 19.5 yards. The former Minnesota Golden Gopher had two returns over 20 yards, with the longest being 25 yards.

Running back Mewelde Moore had one kickoff return during the postseason for 18 yards, while returning two punts for a half a yard. Not exactly a game breaker in these kind of situations.

What Team Has the Edge?

“I would give the special teams edge to the Steelers, particularly when it comes to the place kicking,” stated Bovi. “Jeff Reed rates a clear advantage over Neil Rackers when it comes to dealing with pressure situations.

“I cannot recall an instance of Reed missing a field goal with the game hanging in the balance. Reed has only missed 11-of-124 kicks under 40 yards during his seven-year career. That has to be considered a stellar feat when one takes into account the difficulty factor of Heinz Field.”

While both Arizona’s and Pittsburgh punting and kick return games are pretty similar, the edge goes to the Steelers concerning special teams due to their place kicker.

Edge: Pittsburgh

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