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DIRECT FROM NEVADA
With Linesmaker Nick Bogdanovich
SUPER BOWL WEEK IN NEVADA
I have to admit that sportsbooks in Las Vegas and Reno aren’t expecting this to be a typical Super Bowl in terms of excitement and wagering action. It will still be the biggest betting weekend of the year. The current economy means that the years aren’t as big as they used to be, or the biggest events.
Nevada dodged a bullet when Baltimore failed to beat Pittsburgh in the AFC championship. It would have been very tough to generate excitement about a Baltimore/Arizona Super Bowl. The public can handle one Cinderella, but not two at the same time. The Pittsburgh/Arizona matchup gives you a clear favorite, and one franchise with a long history of winning championships.
There really isn’t much mystery to this point about what the sharps are thinking in this game. They bet early and with authority on Arizona +7 and Under 47. They were afraid those numbers wouldn’t stick for the full two weeks, and they wanted a position at the early prices for max bets. Should the public come in strong on the favorite and the Over in a way that causes the lines to move up, sharps would step in again with their usual Dog and Under combination.
Will the public do that? We expect that in Nevada. You never know. Squares did bet the NY Giants last year because the number was so high (driving the Giants from +14 down to +12). Maybe they’ll decide over the final weekend that the value is with the underdog in a league of parity. The favorite had such a strong history for several years that the public tends to expect blowouts in the big game.
Depending on the store, the moneyline to win outright is Pittsburgh -265 (risk $265 to win $100), Arizona +225 (risk $100 to win $225). I know a lot of sharps who are hoping the Pittsburgh number goes down so they can take a shot at a middle with their Arizona +7 bets. They’ll lay just over 2-1 on Pittsburgh to win the game…then hope to cash both bets should the Steelers win by 1-6 points. If it’s exactly a 7-point win, sharps would push their Arizona bets but win the Pittsburgh bets. Some guys tried to get cute like that last year by betting New England big on the moneyline and cost themselves big money.
Sportbooks are generally rooting for that kind of middle in the Super Bowl. The public usually lays points with the favorites, but takes the odds with the underdog to win outright rather than taking the points. Last year the public took the Giants every which way they could. It was the first losing Super Bowl for Nevada sportsbooks since 1995 (down about $2.5 million).
Through the course of our time together this season I’ve outlined for you what various big events were like here in Nevada. It’s fitting then that we finish off the season with a look at what Super Bowl Week usually entails. Here are the highlights…
*The beginning of the week starts off slow. The game has been up for a while so there’s no urgency to bet. Everyone hit the opener. Tons of public money will come in later on. Most of the oddsmakers attention is on nightly basketball, and on the Super Bowl propositions. There’s always concern that the sharps will make a move on one of the props and score several strikes across town before the number can change. You should have seen all the sharps sprinting across town last week when the opening prop lines went up!
Top oddsmakers are trying to think of additional props they can offer to their customers. You want to get people in the door and making bets! If your store just offers what everyone else is offering, there’s nothing special. So, the best places try to get creative and post possibilities that will appeal to the public. I think some places have gone overboard in recent years. You can seemingly bet on everything now. Will a team score more points than LeBron James scores in his NBA game for the Cavs? How long will the National Anthem go? Will Ben Roethlisberger fix a flat tire on the way to the game? It’s crazy!
*The public’s presence really starts to be felt by late Thursday. People take Friday off and schedule weekend trips to be in Las Vegas or Reno for the big game. If you take Friday off, you might as well fly in or drive in on Thursday Night! You know how that goes. Tourists are never more excited than when they’re on their way to Las Vegas. Get there as soon as possible, and try to make your money last the weekend.
If we’re going to see any movement in the line, we will get an inkling of that in this early action. The public is usually one-sided on the favorite. Gauging HOW one-sided that action is going to be starts once the money is rolling in late Thursday and early Friday. Sportsbooks don’t mind taking a position on the underdog if the public is betting a bad number. They don’t want to take too big a position though. It’s a tough balance to find sometimes.
We’ll see the same thing to a lesser extent on the total. The public usually bets Overs. They really LOVE the Overs in the Super Bowl because so many past games have been high scoring. The sharps will be looking to fade any line moves because of their traditional Under tendencies.
*Over the weekend, it’s a madhouse! The Super Bowl is the one game that EVERYONE wants to bet. People who only place one bet a year will make it on the Super Bowl. Wives and girlfriends of gamblers go to the window because they want to be part of the excitement. There are always some tourists making the first bets of their lives because they’ve never traveled to Vegas or Reno before for the Super Bowl. A lot of guys just above the age limit come in to lose their gambling virginity too.
Lines can get long because many bettors don’t know what they want to do when they get to the window. Employees are generally patient and accommodating. Much of a full year’s profit can be determined by how much money these kinds of bettors LOSE over Super Bowl weekend. Sportsbooks will be as helpful as possible helping them make their bets.
You’ve probably heard or read a lot about all the parties that go on in Nevada during Super Bowl weekend. I won’t go into all of that here. Check out some of the Nevada newspapers online during the weekend for in depth coverage of the festivities. I can tell you that things will be toned down a bit this year because of the economy. That’s relative though. Las Vegas is still crazier when it’s toned down than any place else on earth!
*Game Day will be a real zoo. Panicky people will be rushing to make their final bets before the game kicks off. Even though the numbers have been on the board for two weeks, there are always stragglers who can’t decide until the last second what they want to do. And, if there’s a line move on the side or total…that can create a rush to the window from sharps who have been waiting for a key number. Imagine a late move to Pittsburgh -7.5 or -8. Sharps would come out of the woodwork to take Arizona at anything better than +7. Should THAT rush take the line back down to seven…well the public will race back to the window for the better price on the Steelers. A crazy day could get even crazier!
With Linesmaker Nick Bogdanovich
SUPER BOWL WEEK IN NEVADA
I have to admit that sportsbooks in Las Vegas and Reno aren’t expecting this to be a typical Super Bowl in terms of excitement and wagering action. It will still be the biggest betting weekend of the year. The current economy means that the years aren’t as big as they used to be, or the biggest events.
Nevada dodged a bullet when Baltimore failed to beat Pittsburgh in the AFC championship. It would have been very tough to generate excitement about a Baltimore/Arizona Super Bowl. The public can handle one Cinderella, but not two at the same time. The Pittsburgh/Arizona matchup gives you a clear favorite, and one franchise with a long history of winning championships.
There really isn’t much mystery to this point about what the sharps are thinking in this game. They bet early and with authority on Arizona +7 and Under 47. They were afraid those numbers wouldn’t stick for the full two weeks, and they wanted a position at the early prices for max bets. Should the public come in strong on the favorite and the Over in a way that causes the lines to move up, sharps would step in again with their usual Dog and Under combination.
Will the public do that? We expect that in Nevada. You never know. Squares did bet the NY Giants last year because the number was so high (driving the Giants from +14 down to +12). Maybe they’ll decide over the final weekend that the value is with the underdog in a league of parity. The favorite had such a strong history for several years that the public tends to expect blowouts in the big game.
Depending on the store, the moneyline to win outright is Pittsburgh -265 (risk $265 to win $100), Arizona +225 (risk $100 to win $225). I know a lot of sharps who are hoping the Pittsburgh number goes down so they can take a shot at a middle with their Arizona +7 bets. They’ll lay just over 2-1 on Pittsburgh to win the game…then hope to cash both bets should the Steelers win by 1-6 points. If it’s exactly a 7-point win, sharps would push their Arizona bets but win the Pittsburgh bets. Some guys tried to get cute like that last year by betting New England big on the moneyline and cost themselves big money.
Sportbooks are generally rooting for that kind of middle in the Super Bowl. The public usually lays points with the favorites, but takes the odds with the underdog to win outright rather than taking the points. Last year the public took the Giants every which way they could. It was the first losing Super Bowl for Nevada sportsbooks since 1995 (down about $2.5 million).
Through the course of our time together this season I’ve outlined for you what various big events were like here in Nevada. It’s fitting then that we finish off the season with a look at what Super Bowl Week usually entails. Here are the highlights…
*The beginning of the week starts off slow. The game has been up for a while so there’s no urgency to bet. Everyone hit the opener. Tons of public money will come in later on. Most of the oddsmakers attention is on nightly basketball, and on the Super Bowl propositions. There’s always concern that the sharps will make a move on one of the props and score several strikes across town before the number can change. You should have seen all the sharps sprinting across town last week when the opening prop lines went up!
Top oddsmakers are trying to think of additional props they can offer to their customers. You want to get people in the door and making bets! If your store just offers what everyone else is offering, there’s nothing special. So, the best places try to get creative and post possibilities that will appeal to the public. I think some places have gone overboard in recent years. You can seemingly bet on everything now. Will a team score more points than LeBron James scores in his NBA game for the Cavs? How long will the National Anthem go? Will Ben Roethlisberger fix a flat tire on the way to the game? It’s crazy!
*The public’s presence really starts to be felt by late Thursday. People take Friday off and schedule weekend trips to be in Las Vegas or Reno for the big game. If you take Friday off, you might as well fly in or drive in on Thursday Night! You know how that goes. Tourists are never more excited than when they’re on their way to Las Vegas. Get there as soon as possible, and try to make your money last the weekend.
If we’re going to see any movement in the line, we will get an inkling of that in this early action. The public is usually one-sided on the favorite. Gauging HOW one-sided that action is going to be starts once the money is rolling in late Thursday and early Friday. Sportsbooks don’t mind taking a position on the underdog if the public is betting a bad number. They don’t want to take too big a position though. It’s a tough balance to find sometimes.
We’ll see the same thing to a lesser extent on the total. The public usually bets Overs. They really LOVE the Overs in the Super Bowl because so many past games have been high scoring. The sharps will be looking to fade any line moves because of their traditional Under tendencies.
*Over the weekend, it’s a madhouse! The Super Bowl is the one game that EVERYONE wants to bet. People who only place one bet a year will make it on the Super Bowl. Wives and girlfriends of gamblers go to the window because they want to be part of the excitement. There are always some tourists making the first bets of their lives because they’ve never traveled to Vegas or Reno before for the Super Bowl. A lot of guys just above the age limit come in to lose their gambling virginity too.
Lines can get long because many bettors don’t know what they want to do when they get to the window. Employees are generally patient and accommodating. Much of a full year’s profit can be determined by how much money these kinds of bettors LOSE over Super Bowl weekend. Sportsbooks will be as helpful as possible helping them make their bets.
You’ve probably heard or read a lot about all the parties that go on in Nevada during Super Bowl weekend. I won’t go into all of that here. Check out some of the Nevada newspapers online during the weekend for in depth coverage of the festivities. I can tell you that things will be toned down a bit this year because of the economy. That’s relative though. Las Vegas is still crazier when it’s toned down than any place else on earth!
*Game Day will be a real zoo. Panicky people will be rushing to make their final bets before the game kicks off. Even though the numbers have been on the board for two weeks, there are always stragglers who can’t decide until the last second what they want to do. And, if there’s a line move on the side or total…that can create a rush to the window from sharps who have been waiting for a key number. Imagine a late move to Pittsburgh -7.5 or -8. Sharps would come out of the woodwork to take Arizona at anything better than +7. Should THAT rush take the line back down to seven…well the public will race back to the window for the better price on the Steelers. A crazy day could get even crazier!
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