SUPER BOWL XLIII Trends and Indexes 2/1

[Udog]

NFL


Super Bowl XLIII

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Opening Line Report
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Super Bowl XLIII opening line report

LAS VEGAS – The Super Bowl is the one game oddsmakers set a number for the public because recreational money is going to outweigh wise-guy plays.

The key question is which team does the public back, Pittsburgh or Arizona?

The oddsmakers at Las Vegas Sports Consultants were divided between opening the Steelers -6.5 or seven. They decided on seven with a total of 46.5.

Dan O’Brien was one of the LVSC linesmakers who thought the opener should be 6.5 or even six.

“I was thinking seven at the beginning of last week,” he said. “But after watching Arizona beat another solid, all-around team, I was thinking seven would be an automatic take.”

The earliest betting action was on the Cardinals. Several offshore and Las Vegas places, including the Palms Hotel and Pinnacle, came down to 6.5 points.

The Steelers have always been a widely public team. Being the favorite isn’t going to hurt their betting appeal either. Recreational bettors tend to bet favorites.

Arizona hasn’t been a hit with gamblers, which is understandable since the Cardinals’ previous winning season was way back in 1984.

But the Cardinals have swayed a lot of skeptics with their three-game playoff run, knocking off Atlanta, Carolina and Philadelphia. The Cardinals should know the Steelers well since they have a bunch of former Steelers assistant coaches on their staff including head coach Ken Whisenhunt and assistant head coach Russ Grimm.

“Most of the time the public will bet the favorite,” said Jay Kornegay, race and sports book director at the Las Vegas Hilton. “But from what I’ve seen a lot of people are jumping on the Cardinals’ bandwagon.”

The Hilton opened Pittsburgh -7. Kornegay said he wasn’t anxious to move off that number but was taking a wait-and-see attitude regarding a possible adjustment.

“We’re trying to project the popularity of the Steelers versus the appeal of the Cinderella team,” he said.

The Steelers have tradition, the NFL’s best defense and a comfort zone with bettors.

The Cardinals bring a fresh look and a much more exciting offense with big-play quarterback Kurt Warner and star wide receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.

A great defense against an exciting, pass-oriented offense made it a challenge to set an opening total. The Hilton’s number was the same as LVSC’s recommendation, 46.5. Several places were at 47 points.

It wouldn’t be surprising if the total climbed higher. Weather shouldn’t factor with Tampa as the venue. The public prefers to root for points rather than defense, so they usually bet over. O’Brien’s suggested opening total number was 47.5 points.

“It was a tricky total,” he said. “But Super Bowl inflation mitigates Pittsburgh’s defense.”

The last time Pittsburgh had a total above 39 was against San Diego Nov. 16, when the number was 42. The Steelers’ highest total occurred in Weeks 2 and 3 when it was 44 against the Browns and Eagles. The Steelers beat the Browns 10-6 and lost to the Eagles, 15-6.

Arizona has been one of the best over teams, going above the total in 68 percent of its games during the past three seasons. The Cardinals were 13-6 over/under this season. Pittsburgh went above the total in 10 of its 18 game including both playoff contests.

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[Udog]

NFL
Long Sheet


Super Bowl XLIII

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Sunday, February 1
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PITTSBURGH (14 - 4) vs. ARIZONA (12 - 7) - 2/1/2009, 6:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 78-48 ATS (+25.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 72-49 ATS (+18.1 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[Udog]

NFL
Short Sheet


Sunday, February 1

Super Bowl XLIII
Tampa, FL
TV: NBC
Philadelphia vs. Arizona, 6:20 ET

Pittsburgh:
6-1 ATS off home win
32-16 ATS off game w/ TO margin of +3 or better

Arizona:
8-0 Over off a SU win as a dog
13-5 Over as an underdog

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[Udog]

NFL
Trend Sheet


Sunday, February 1

Super Bowl XLIII

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Trend Sheet
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6:20 PM PITTSBURGH vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Arizona
Pittsburgh is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

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[pm530]

NFL


Sunday, February 1

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Super Bowl XLIII Preview
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals

- The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Arizona Cardinals will both be gunning for a victory on Sunday, February 1 when they meet at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay for Super Bowl XLIII.

Oddsmakers currently have the Steelers listed as 6½-point favorites versus the Cardinals, while the game's total is sitting at 47.*

The Steelers defeated Baltimore 23-14 as a 6-point favorite in the AFC Championship Game. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (35.5).

Ben Roethlisberger passed for 255 yards with a 65-yard touchdown strike to Santonio Holmes for Pittsburgh, while Troy Polamalu ran back an interception 40 yards for a touchdown.

The Cardinals upset Philadelphia 32-25 as a 3.5-point underdog in the NFC Championship Game. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (47).

Kurt Warner passed for 279 yards with four touchdowns for Arizona, and Larry Fitzgerald caught nine passes for 152 yards with three touchdowns in the win.

Regular season records:
Pittsburgh: 12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS
Arizona: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS

Pittsburgh most recently:
When playing in February are 1-0
When playing on grass are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing outside the division are 6-4

Arizona most recently:
When playing on grass are 6-4
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing outside the division are 5-5
After playing Philadelphia are 2-8

A few trends to consider:
Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Pittsburgh is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

* Note: when this was originally written, the line was 6 ½
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[pm530]

NFL

Dunkel Index

Super Bowl XLIII

Pittsburgh vs. Arizona
The Steelers look to build on their 7-0 ATS record in the playoffs behind QB Ben Roethlisberger against an Arizona team that has lost 13 of its last 18 SU as an underdog between 3 1/2 and 9 1/2 points. The Steelers are the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has Pittsburgh favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-7).

SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 1

Game 101-102: Pittsburgh vs. Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 145.444; Arizona 135.352
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 10; 42 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 7; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-7); Under

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[pm530]

NFL



Super Bowl XLIII

Sunday, February 1

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Tips and Trends
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Super Bowl: Arizona Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers [NBC | 6:28 PM ET]

Cardinals: Arizona's Kurt Warner will be trying to become the first starting QB to lead two different teams to Super Bowl wins, and this time he will be the underdog. Warner was a favorite in his previous two Super Bowl appearances and is just enjoying the ride this time around with the Cardinals, who have been underdogs in all three of their playoff games this year. He could make a serious case for the Hall of Fame with another victory against the top-ranked defense in the NFL, which is well-known for zone blitzing. Warner completed 64.4 percent of his passes with 14 touchdown passes and a 103.1 QB rating against the blitz this season. “My approach is hoping that every player that I’ve played with, every place that I’ve been, that in some way, shape or form, I leave my stamp on those people and those places,” Warner said. “That’s what I want my legacy to be. The football stuff, that’s all gravy.”

Cardinals are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games vs. teams with a winning record.
The OVER is 23-8 in Arizona's last 31 games on grass.

Key Injuries - DE Travis LaBoy (biceps) is day-to-day.
TE Stephen Spach (leg) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

Steelers (-6.5, O/U 46.5): Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger has the opportunity to win two Super Bowls before the age of 26, something only New England's Tom Brady has accomplished. But Roethlisberger will be playing with a chip on his shoulder knowing how disappointed he remains with his own performance in a 21-10 win over Seattle in Super Bowl XL. He completed 9-of-21 passes for 123 yards with two interceptions against the Seahawks and has had to listen to everybody talk about how former offensive coordinator and current Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt knows his tendencies better than anybody. “I obviously got a little bit upset I didn’t play so well, I let the guys down and I didn’t help the team win the game,” Roethlisberger said. “It fuels the fire that you want to come out and play a better game the next time. You have to get over the initial hoopla, the flash, the lights and just make it a game.”

Steelers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
The OVER is 12-2 in Pittsburgh's last 14 playoff games.

Key Injuries - WR Hines Ward (knee) is probable.
S Ryan Clark (head) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 30

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[pm530]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up


Super Bowl XLIII

Sunday, February 1

In week 4 of 2007 season, Steelers went to Arizona 3-0, outscoring foes by 97-26 margin, but they lost 21-14 in a game they led 7-0 at halftime; Leinart started at QB for Cardinals, was replaced by the two-time MVP Warner, who engineered the win. Both teams had two turnovers, neither team ran ball for 90 yards. Steelers were 6-point favorite in that game; they're 7-point favorite here, on a neutral field against a better team than the one they faced last year in the desert.

If you read this website at all, you'll know there's no way I can analyze this game in an impartial way, since I'm a Ram fan and Kurt Warner was a great Ram. Here's what I think about this game; you're getting 7 points with the quarterback who has the two highest passing yardage games in Super Bowl history, one who led the game-winning drive in last 2:00 of one Super Bowl, a tying drive in last 2:00 of another. Pittsburgh will try to zone blitz and take Fitzgerald away; hard to blitz a veteran QB.

Arizona must keep Parker from running wild and contain Big Ben in the pocket; Roethlisberger has also won a Super Bowl, but he played poorly in that game. media likes to point out how Steelers have won five Super Bowls, but only one of them has come since 1980. Four of last seven Super Bowls were decided by three points each. This will be close game, a hard fought game. Taking Arizona plus the points is the right play.

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[pm530]

NFL
Super Bowl Stats


Super Bowl XLIII

Sunday, February 1

Five Super Bowl stats you should know

Sometimes it is the unknown or smaller stats that can make a difference in locating the Super Bowl winner. Five categories you might not know about.

Sacks

When you talk about sacks, you automatically think about the Steelers because that is what the media has thrown at you. You will probably be surprised to know that the Cardinals are +3 in net sacks this season while the Steelers are +2 in net sacks. It isn’t a huge difference but Pittsburgh and its defense are being portrayed as the team that will be able to dominate in that category.

Cardinals left tackle Mike Gandy isn't getting much attention but he's made life a lot easier for quarterback Kurt Warner. He has started 35 straight games since joining the Cardinals in 2007 and this year gave up only 6.5 sacks with just one holding penalty.

Winning the battle of the sacks usually means a Super bowl win. In the last 13 Super Bowls, the sack leader has won 12 of those games and went 8-3-2 ATS.

Edge: Even


Red zone

Red zone scoring is where games are won and lost.

Despite having the third ranked scoring offense, Arizona is ninth in red zone touchdown percentage at a 58.5 percent clip. The Steelers are 15th at 55.1 percent. The difference here is that the Cardinals scored 72 more redzone points while having 16 more possessions inside the 20-yard line.

Defensively, the Steelers were an NFL best, allowing red zone touchdowns only 33.3 percent of the time. Arizona, meanwhile, allowed touchdowns 63.6 percent of the time which was fifth worst. The point differential amounted to 124 more points allowed by Arizona.

Edge: Pittsburgh


Field Position

A shorter field makes it easier on the offense and harder on the defense. These are two of the worst punting teams in the NFL as Arizona finished 31st in net punting while Pittsburgh finished 29th. The Cardinals, however, have the edge in punt returning, averaging 7.2 yards per return compared to Pitt's 6.0 ypr average (31st in the NFL).

In Arizona's 21-14 win last season against the Steelers, Cardinals receiver Steve Breaston ran a punt back for a touchdown which broke a 7-7 tie.

Edge: Arizona


Defense Wins Championships

The last four Super Bowl winners have allowed only 15.5 points per game. The last eight champs allowed 17 ppg. Of the 42 past Super Bowls, the losing team has scored 20 points or fewer 33 times.

What about the offense? The winning team has scored 30 points or more 21 times, but it has not happened since Super Bowl XXVIII. Based on this little bit of history, it's clear a solid defense is a key contributor to any Super Bowl winner.

Edge: Pittsburgh


Passer Rating

Of the 42 winning quarterbacks in Super Bowl history, 15 of those had passer ratings better than 100 throughout their playoff run. This included both Ben Roethlisberger in 2005 (101.6) and Kurt Warner in 1999 (100.0). Looking at this season, Roethlisberger has a passer rating of 90.5 while Warner has a passer rating of 111.9.

Considering Roethlisberger had a regular season rating of 80.1 while Warner had a rating of 96.9, this current pace is not surprising. If Warner keeps it up and wins the Super Bowl, it would be the seventh-highest rating of all time. Keeping that pace will be difficult but achievable.

Edge: Arizona

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[pm530]

NFL


Sunday, February 1

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NFL Betting: Super Bowl XLIII
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The NFL caps its latest campaign with a Super Bowl pitting one the league's great franchises vs. one of its most historically inept when the Pittsburgh Steelers take on the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday afternoon at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa (6:28 pm Eastern, NBC).

As of Friday morning, 56 hours before kickoff, Pittsburgh was listed as seven-point favorites over Arizona, with a total of 46.5. Those numbers had held steady throughout this last week. The Steelers were also posted at -255 on the moneyline, with the Cardinals getting +215.

For nearly the first 40 years of its existence, Pittsburgh was an annual afterthought, never finishing higher than second place. But over the last 35 years, the Steelers have been one of the great franchises in professional sports, contending on a nearly annual basis and winning five Super Bowls. With a win Sunday the Black and Gold will own more Lombardi Trophies than any other team in the league.

On the other side of this story the Cardinals, the oldest franchise in the league, are playing in their first Super Bowl and in their first league championship game since 1948, when they were based in Chicago. There were some good times when St. Louis was home, but never a playoff victory. And before this season, in their first 19 years based in Arizona, the Cardinals had gone to the playoffs just once.

Pittsburgh won 12 games this season and the AFC North Division title. The Steelers then dispatched of the San Diego Chargers 35-24 in a Divisional Round playoff game, and trimmed the Baltimore Ravens 23-14 in the Conference Championship game two weeks ago in Pittsburgh.

Arizona, meanwhile, won seven of its first 10 games this season and was the first team in the league to clinch a division crown. The Cardinals then proceeded to lose four of their last six games, three in blowout fashion. But the Cards have exploded in the playoffs, racking up 95 points in beating Atlanta, Carolina and Philadelphia to claim their first-ever Conference Championship.

These two teams last met in Week 4 of last season, when the Cards upset the Steelers as six-point home underdogs 21-14. That game was the fourth in the tenures of both Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin and Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt, a former Steelers assistant.

'Zona outrushed Pittsburgh that day 86-77, and picked off Steelers' QB Ben Roethlisberger twice, once down near the Cardinals' end zone. And Arizona QB Kurt Warner, who replaced starter Matt Leinart that day, went 14/21/132 passing, with a touchdown and no interceptions.

The big play of that game came early in the fourth quarter, when the Cardinals' Steve Breaston returned a punt 73 yards for a score, breaking a 7-7 tie. Arizona added another score with under five minutes to go, and held on from there for the victory.

That game also stayed well under its total of 42.5.

This season, these two teams played five common opponents. Arizona lost at Washington 24-17, at Philadelphia 48-20, in the slop at New England 47-7, and at home to the Giants 37-29. The Cardinals also beat Dallas 30-24 in overtime, and two weeks ago – as mentioned above – knocked off the Eagles in the NFC championship game 32-25.

Pittsburgh won at the Redskins 23-6 and at the Patriots 33-10, beat the Cowboys at home 20-13, and lost at Philly 15-6 and at home to the Giants 21-14.

So vs. those five common foes, Arizona went 2-4 both straight up and against the spread, while the Steelers went 3-2 both SU and ATS.

Including the playoffs, Pittsburgh has been favored by 6.5 points or more five times this season, and has won and covered all five games. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have been dogged by 6.5 points or more twice this season, losing miserably at New England at +9 but winning at Carolina in grand fashion getting 10 points in that NFC Divisional Round playoff game.

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[pm530]

NFL


Sunday, February 1

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Picking sides: Arguments for betting Arizona and Pittsburgh
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Cardinals and Steelers backers sound off on why they think their team is going to cover the spread on Super Sunday.


Three reasons to back the Arizona Cardinals:

Ken Whisenhunt

Jon Gruden turned his familiarity with the Raiders into a Super Bowl ring with the Bucs in 2003. Whisenhunt is the architect of the Steelers offense and while things have changed on the chalkboard, he does have an inside edge when it comes to the personnel.

Willie Parker admitted last week that “Whiz” knows everything about himself, Ben Roethlisberger and the rest of the Steelers. That was the case last season when Whisenhunt stuck it to his former team with a 21-14 victory in September. He sicked the dogs on Roethlisberger, sacking his former star four times and picking off two passes.

Turnovers

Turnovers are the great leveler in the Super Bowl. Nothing takes the wind out of an offense more than a bad pick or costly fumble. Arizona's defense has thrived on forcing turnovers. The Cardinals have stolen the ball 12 times in the playoffs. Even outside of Jake Delhomme's public execution in the divisional round, they've used their speed to rush quarterbacks and snatch wayward passes.

Larry Fitzgerald

He is the NFL's best receiver and has backed that up with five touchdowns and over 400 yards receiving in the postseason. He makes up almost 40 percent of the Cardinals offense and he's willing to take a pay cut just to keep wing mate Anquan Boldin in the desert. That's a team player.

Pittsburgh will try to get physical with Fitzgerald but will find out like the Eagles did, the solid 6-foot-2 wideout doesn't budge. He brushed off would-be tacklers in the NFC Championship for even more yards after the catch.


Three reasons to back the Pittsburgh Steelers:

Smack ‘em in the mouth

My esteemed colleague thinks Larry Fitzgerald and the Cards are going to pull a Hulk Hogan and run wild on the Steelers. I beg to differ.

We all watched Fitzgerald destroy the Eagles coverage, but don’t try and compare Ike Taylor to Asante Samuel.

Samuel is a pipsqueak and was playing with an injury. Taylor and the rest of the Pittsburgh secondary are as hard-hitting as they come – just ask Willis McGahee.

Play calling

Kurt Warner has said multiple times that if it were up to him Arizona would pass on every down. Against Pittsburgh he might get his wish, but that isn’t good news for Zona backers.

The highlight packages of the Cards playoff run is filled with bombs to Fitzy and 60 yard runs after the catch for Anquan Boldin, but the reason those wideouts have room to operate was because of the running game.

During the Cardinals final six games in the regular season they rushed the ball about 14 times each outing. Since the postseason began they’ve turned the amplifiers on the ground attack up to 11 averaging 28 rushing attempts each contest.

Only the Vikings allowed fewer rushing yards than the Steelers during the regular season and surrendered just 96 yards on the ground in their two playoff matches.

When (not if) offensive coordinator Todd Haley abandons the run, the Pittsburgh pass rush will go balls-to-the wall on Kurt Warner.

Just win baby

Pittsburgh’s offense doesn’t gain a lot of style points but the unit gets the job done. It’s almost like Buckley’s cough medicine should be the sponsor.

The Yellow and Black endured one of the toughest schedules the NFL as ever put together and still came away 13-3 straight up and 9-7 against the spread. Ben Roethlisberger and his offensive mates do enough to get the job done.

And it’s not like we’re talking about an attack reminiscent of the 2000 Ravens. The Steelers have a big-play wideout (Santonio Holmes), the best slot receiver in the business (Hines Ward), an effective tight end in run and pass situations (Heath Miller) and a home-run threat at tailback (Willie Parker).

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[pm530]

NFL


Sunday, February 1

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Hit 'em where it hurts: Super Bowl mismatches
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals (-6.5, 46.5)

Santonio Holmes vs. Cardinals’ punt coverage

The Steelers’ punt return team was rather abysmal during the regular season with just 6.6 yards a return, but Holmes and the Steelers have upped their game in the postseason and could provide the Steelers with a shorter field to work with on Sunday.

In its two playoff wins, the Steelers have returned seven punts for an average of 14.1 yards and one touchdown. The lone touchdown, of course, was a 67-yard scamper by speedster by Holmes. He has risen to the occasion in the playoffs with five punt returns for an average of 19.6 yards.

The Arizona punt unit has been solid this postseason after a disappointing first 16 games. Punter Ben Graham took over punting duties midway through the regular season and has been solid in the playoffs. Just five of his 15 punts have been returned and nine were downed inside the 20. With that said, the Cardinals still managed to rank 31st of 32 teams during the regular season with a net punt return average of 13.1 yards. That could mean some things will be open for Holmes and the Steelers.

Pittsburgh defense vs. Arizona offensive line

The offensive line of the Cardinals has improved under O-line coach Russ Grimm, especially during this surprising playoff run. But the unit hasn’t faced anything like the NFL’s top-rated ‘D’ and that may prove a major factor.

Arizona’s offensive line allowed only 29 a remarkable feat for considering only the Saints attempted more passes per game than the Cards. The Red Birds were last in rushing yards with just 73.6 yards a game but that turned around in the postseason. The ground game, thanks largely to a rested and healthy Edgerrin James, increased to 111 yards a game over Zona’s last three games.

Kurt Warner and Company will be facing a whole other test when NFL Defensive Player of the Year James Harrison and crew enters Raymond James Stadium Sunday.

Cardinals’ offense vs. Steelers’ defense on third-down

These are actually strengths of both teams, but it could go a long way towards determining the outcome. The Cardinals’ offense has been lights out on third down during the postseason with a 47 percent conversion rate, which is an improvement from its solid regular season conversion rate of 42 percent. The improved running game of the Cardinals in the playoffs has gone a long way in upping that percentage, but they’ll be facing a daunting task with the Steelers’ defense.

Pittsburgh’s defense was tops in the NFL during the regular season and just 31 percent of opponents’ third downs were successful. The Steelers have been nearly as good during their playoff run with just a 32 percent opposition success rate.

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[pm530]

NFL


Sunday, February 1

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Super Bowl XLIII weather report
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Mother Nature won’t be a factor for the big game.

Meteorologists are predicting game-time temperatures around 62 degrees F with mostly sunny skies. The winds will be blowing east to southeast at seven miles per hour.

The conditions were similar (65 F) in 2001, the last time Tampa Bay hosted the Super Bowl. The Ravens registered a playoff-high in points beating the Giants 34-7 in Super Bowl XXXV. The 41 points went well about the over/under line, which was set at 33.

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