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DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND IN THE NFL
We’re down to the last three games in the NFL season. Sunday will feature the NFC Championship game matching #6 seed Philadelphia and #4 seed Arizona…and the AFC Championship game matching #6 seed Baltimore and #2 seed Pittsburgh. The winners play in the Super Bowl in two weeks. The pointspread for the Super Bowl will go up Sunday Night as soon as the AFC Championship game ends.
If the dogs keep winning outright, the Super Bowl could be a matchup of #6 seeds!
It’s been that kind of year in pro football. Nobody’s been able to establish dominance on a week to week basis. Many of the teams with the best records either own a lot of close games, or played a very easy schedule. You could almost throw the best teams in a hat and just pick out a winner. Parity is an over-used word in pro football analysis. It’s really been the story this year.
You know, if all the playoff games had been pick-em, the lesser seeds would have had a winning record against the spread anyway. The seedings don’t matter. The pointspreads don’t matter. Just figure out who’s going to win the game and make your bets!
How have sharps been doing so far in the playoffs? If underdogs are winning, sharps are usually winning. That’s a good general rule. Though, a lot of guys thought Carolina was going to kill Arizona. For the most part, sharps are happy, and the public is frustrated to this point. The pubic loves betting favorites, particularly those with home field advantage and a bye. Only Pittsburgh put those factors to use last weekend. Those edges used to be HUGE in the playoffs. Not the past few seasons.
Let’s see what the sharps have been doing so far in this Sunday’s championship games. Be aware that sharp action sometimes “waits” until the weekend so they can take the extra points occasionally created by public betting.
PHILADELPHIA AT ARIZONA: The early money came in on Philadelphia, as the game opened either at -3 with extra juice, or -3.5 depending on the store. We’re now seeing Philadelphia -4 everywhere. Does that mean the sharps love Philadelphia?
I’d say it means this:
*The sharps who like Philadelphia bet the earliest possible line to maximize their value. They know the public usually bets favorites. Sharps who liked Philly weren’t going to bet it at -4 or -5 when -3 with extra vig was available early.
*Sharps who wanted to set up potential middles hit Philadelphia at -3 early on so they could come back with Arizona at +4 or better…perhaps even coming back over the top with a bigger bet on Arizona at the higher price. This sets up nice payoffs if the game lands on either 3 or 4. Some early money represents “position taking” rather than an endorsement of a team.
*Sharps who knew they wanted Arizona haven’t bet yet. They’ll wait to see if the line goes higher. There’s no reason to bet the Cardinals at +3.5 or +4 if you can get +4.5, +5, or maybe even more on game day once the public starts hitting the game.
Add all that up, and you get a line moving up because ALL of the early money is coming in on the same team. That’s NOT proof that the sharps like Philadelphia across the board. It’s just proof that sharps know how to make the most of market tendencies.
My impression from talking to sharps in Reno and Las Vegas is that more guys will be on Arizona than Philadelphia come kickoff. Some of the public may take the home underdog because they heard that home dogs offer value. I think most squares will be on the favorite. This won’t be a classic “tug of war” game with all the sharps on one side, and all the squares on the other. It will be shaded that direction though.
The total has come down from 49 to 47. I’m a bit surprised the Under guys acted so quickly. The public tends to bet Overs, particularly at the higher totals. Maybe if they waited they could have seen a 50 or a 51. The consensus seems to be that oddsmakers overshot the mark by at least a field goal….and the totals guys wanted to bet before other sharps took their edge away. If the public drives the line back up over the weekend, more sharps will come in on the Under. There’s a lot of respect for Philadelphia’s defense. And, sharps noticed that Arizona settled for a lot of field goals last week at Carolina.
BALTIMORE AT PITTSBURGH: We have a similar story here, in that the line shot up after its open even though sharps tend to bet underdogs. Pittsburgh opened at -4.5, and is now -6 most places as I write this (I’m seeing some 5.5’s out there).
I should also mention here that the public can influence openers during the playoffs. Many squares come to Vegas for big playoff weekends…and they’re still in town when the lines go up right after the final gun. So…it’s possible that some of the early movement on both favorites came from squares betting BEFORE they went back home to their 9-5 work weeks.
To me, both cases are more about position-taking than early square money. The sharps know what the squares are going to do, and they set themselves up for potential middles around key numbers. If the public is destined to drive this line to Pittsburgh -7, it sure pays to have possible middles at 5 and 6 (particularly 6). Sharps can come back over the top on Baltimore +7 if it gets that high…or can accept a +6 on the dog with the middle possibilities just below it.
I have heard some respected players talking about Pittsburgh here as a value play. Getting RB Parker back at full speed really gives them an extra dimension…and there’s a perception that Baltimore was very lucky to get by Tennessee last week. If the Ravens get outplayed and outgained to that degree again, they’ll have trouble covering for sure.
Most sharps are taking the points:
*Sharps almost always take the points!
*In a topsy turvy season where parity is the rule, you’re supposed to take points whenever they’re offered.
*In games with low totals, you’re supposed to take the points because it’s harder for the favorite to win big in a defensive battle.
*Both teams play conservatively in a way that will shorten the game, making points valuable as well.
The low opener of 33 on the total has gone up to 34. Nobody’s going to play Under at 33 unless a blizzard is in the forecast. So, the people who liked what they saw with Pittsburgh’s offense last week (and noticed that Baltimore’s defense was allowing a lot of yardage) hit the Over in addition to betting the Steelers. The Under money will come in if there’s a move higher than 34, or if the weather is going to be an issue. All in all, it’s shaping up as a very interesting weekend! The sharps like the dogs, but it’s far from a true consensus. The sharps like the Under in Arizona, and will probably like the Under in Pittsburgh but they’re waiting for more line value.
WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND IN THE NFL
We’re down to the last three games in the NFL season. Sunday will feature the NFC Championship game matching #6 seed Philadelphia and #4 seed Arizona…and the AFC Championship game matching #6 seed Baltimore and #2 seed Pittsburgh. The winners play in the Super Bowl in two weeks. The pointspread for the Super Bowl will go up Sunday Night as soon as the AFC Championship game ends.
If the dogs keep winning outright, the Super Bowl could be a matchup of #6 seeds!
It’s been that kind of year in pro football. Nobody’s been able to establish dominance on a week to week basis. Many of the teams with the best records either own a lot of close games, or played a very easy schedule. You could almost throw the best teams in a hat and just pick out a winner. Parity is an over-used word in pro football analysis. It’s really been the story this year.
You know, if all the playoff games had been pick-em, the lesser seeds would have had a winning record against the spread anyway. The seedings don’t matter. The pointspreads don’t matter. Just figure out who’s going to win the game and make your bets!
How have sharps been doing so far in the playoffs? If underdogs are winning, sharps are usually winning. That’s a good general rule. Though, a lot of guys thought Carolina was going to kill Arizona. For the most part, sharps are happy, and the public is frustrated to this point. The pubic loves betting favorites, particularly those with home field advantage and a bye. Only Pittsburgh put those factors to use last weekend. Those edges used to be HUGE in the playoffs. Not the past few seasons.
Let’s see what the sharps have been doing so far in this Sunday’s championship games. Be aware that sharp action sometimes “waits” until the weekend so they can take the extra points occasionally created by public betting.
PHILADELPHIA AT ARIZONA: The early money came in on Philadelphia, as the game opened either at -3 with extra juice, or -3.5 depending on the store. We’re now seeing Philadelphia -4 everywhere. Does that mean the sharps love Philadelphia?
I’d say it means this:
*The sharps who like Philadelphia bet the earliest possible line to maximize their value. They know the public usually bets favorites. Sharps who liked Philly weren’t going to bet it at -4 or -5 when -3 with extra vig was available early.
*Sharps who wanted to set up potential middles hit Philadelphia at -3 early on so they could come back with Arizona at +4 or better…perhaps even coming back over the top with a bigger bet on Arizona at the higher price. This sets up nice payoffs if the game lands on either 3 or 4. Some early money represents “position taking” rather than an endorsement of a team.
*Sharps who knew they wanted Arizona haven’t bet yet. They’ll wait to see if the line goes higher. There’s no reason to bet the Cardinals at +3.5 or +4 if you can get +4.5, +5, or maybe even more on game day once the public starts hitting the game.
Add all that up, and you get a line moving up because ALL of the early money is coming in on the same team. That’s NOT proof that the sharps like Philadelphia across the board. It’s just proof that sharps know how to make the most of market tendencies.
My impression from talking to sharps in Reno and Las Vegas is that more guys will be on Arizona than Philadelphia come kickoff. Some of the public may take the home underdog because they heard that home dogs offer value. I think most squares will be on the favorite. This won’t be a classic “tug of war” game with all the sharps on one side, and all the squares on the other. It will be shaded that direction though.
The total has come down from 49 to 47. I’m a bit surprised the Under guys acted so quickly. The public tends to bet Overs, particularly at the higher totals. Maybe if they waited they could have seen a 50 or a 51. The consensus seems to be that oddsmakers overshot the mark by at least a field goal….and the totals guys wanted to bet before other sharps took their edge away. If the public drives the line back up over the weekend, more sharps will come in on the Under. There’s a lot of respect for Philadelphia’s defense. And, sharps noticed that Arizona settled for a lot of field goals last week at Carolina.
BALTIMORE AT PITTSBURGH: We have a similar story here, in that the line shot up after its open even though sharps tend to bet underdogs. Pittsburgh opened at -4.5, and is now -6 most places as I write this (I’m seeing some 5.5’s out there).
I should also mention here that the public can influence openers during the playoffs. Many squares come to Vegas for big playoff weekends…and they’re still in town when the lines go up right after the final gun. So…it’s possible that some of the early movement on both favorites came from squares betting BEFORE they went back home to their 9-5 work weeks.
To me, both cases are more about position-taking than early square money. The sharps know what the squares are going to do, and they set themselves up for potential middles around key numbers. If the public is destined to drive this line to Pittsburgh -7, it sure pays to have possible middles at 5 and 6 (particularly 6). Sharps can come back over the top on Baltimore +7 if it gets that high…or can accept a +6 on the dog with the middle possibilities just below it.
I have heard some respected players talking about Pittsburgh here as a value play. Getting RB Parker back at full speed really gives them an extra dimension…and there’s a perception that Baltimore was very lucky to get by Tennessee last week. If the Ravens get outplayed and outgained to that degree again, they’ll have trouble covering for sure.
Most sharps are taking the points:
*Sharps almost always take the points!
*In a topsy turvy season where parity is the rule, you’re supposed to take points whenever they’re offered.
*In games with low totals, you’re supposed to take the points because it’s harder for the favorite to win big in a defensive battle.
*Both teams play conservatively in a way that will shorten the game, making points valuable as well.
The low opener of 33 on the total has gone up to 34. Nobody’s going to play Under at 33 unless a blizzard is in the forecast. So, the people who liked what they saw with Pittsburgh’s offense last week (and noticed that Baltimore’s defense was allowing a lot of yardage) hit the Over in addition to betting the Steelers. The Under money will come in if there’s a move higher than 34, or if the weather is going to be an issue. All in all, it’s shaping up as a very interesting weekend! The sharps like the dogs, but it’s far from a true consensus. The sharps like the Under in Arizona, and will probably like the Under in Pittsburgh but they’re waiting for more line value.
NBA is a joke
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