Spears 10* Philly/Arizona NFL Playoff

[Spearit]

1. As outlined last week from the coldhardfootballfacts.com, teams with the better DHI (Defensive Hog Index) are now 18-1 S/U & 17-2 ATS the last 2 years in the NFL playoffs. The game between Philly (#2 DHI) & Arizona (#17) will mark the biggest difference among any of the previous contests.


2. Arizona had a +1 point differential this season (427 points scored, 426 points allowed). They are in rarified air: a mediocre team that's one victory away from appearing in their first Super Bowl.

Here are the teams that made it to their respective conference championship games in the Super Bowl Era with the worst point differential:

1978 Oilers, -15 (283-298)
1996 Jaguars, -10 (325-335)
1987 Vikings, +1 (336-335)
2008 Cardinals, +1 (427-426)
2004 Falcons, +3 (340-337)
1977 Vikings, +4 (231-227)
1983 Seahawks, +6 (403-397)
1970 Raiders, +7 (300-293)

Now let’s look at how those teams fared in their conference championship games:

1978 Oilers lost at Pittsburgh, 34-5
1996 Jaguars lost at New England, 20-6
1987 Vikings lost at Washington, 17-10
2004 Falcons lost at Philadelphia, 27-14
1977 Vikings lost at Dallas, 23-6
1983 Seahawks lost at LA Raiders, 30-14
1970 Raiders lost at Baltimore Colts, 27-17

You'll notice a few things:
These middling teams all lost in the conference title game and most lost convincingly (an average loss of 15.1 points). Only the 1987 Vikings were close.

Five of the seven losses were to the eventual Super Bowl champions. One caveat, the Cardinals will be the first team from this group to be playing at home.

[Spearit]

3. Home dogs in Conference Championship games have been terrible since the playoff format was realigned, going 1-4 SU/ATS. The lone win and cover was a ridiculous 41-0 victory by the Giants (+2.5) over Minnesota in the 2001 NFC Title Game. Here are the four losses:

2005 – Pittsburgh (+3) lost to New England, 41-27
1998 – San Francisco (+2.5) lost to Green Bay, 23-10
1998 – Pittsburgh (+2.5) lost to Denver, 24-21
1993 – Miami (+2.5) lost to Buffalo, 29-10


4. Open Philly -3
Current Philly -4

=> Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ARIZONA) - revenging a road loss against opponent, off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog.
(27-6 since 1983.) (81.8%, +20.4 units. Rating = 3*)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (9-2).

Alternative plays: If the line goes back to -3' as I suspect I will buy the half to get Philly -3 -125. Already the wagers are down to 58% on the visitor so stay tuned. Otherwise I will look at the Philly ML.

[Spearit]

10* Philly ML
10* Philly -4
10* Philly (wait to see the if it come back down to m-3 or buy to -3)
8* Philly -2 (First Half)
8* Zona +1/2 3rd Qtr

Thats my bets and I am sticking to it!
Seems I am once again in the minority. Somehow, it seems to work out for me.
best to all!

[libertypl]

BOL today Spear Lets Go Eagles!!!

[BillMill71]

Good Luck Spear

[10DimeBry]

GL today spear

[FRITO]

10* Philly ML
10* Philly -4
10* Philly (wait to see the if it come back down to m-3 or buy to -3)
8* Philly -2 (First Half)
8* Zona +1/2 3rd Qtr

Thats my bets and I am sticking to it!
Seems I am once again in the minority. Somehow, it seems to work out for me.
best to all!

I thought Ariz was looking good to come back out scoring in the 3rd qtr.
I remembered reading in here about their 3rd qtr stats so i was watching for it.
That turned out to be the only quarter they didn't score in, Philly 'D' stepped up.
(sometimes we can cap for days but the stats just don't work out right) 'gambling'

good luck on the SuperBowl