Nba 2nd half system trials

[NoCashMcgraff]

mavs/hornets 2nd half over missed...puts us at 2-2 on the night...but both losses were on the 1pt disparity..lets see how the lakers/spurs game goes..that was a 2pt disparity. Probably talking chinese to some lol..dont know if im explaining it clearly..if anyone has any questions feel free.

[poskid]

mavs/hornets 2nd half over missed...puts us at 2-2 on the night...but both losses were on the 1pt disparity..lets see how the lakers/spurs game goes..that was a 2pt disparity. Probably talking chinese to some lol..dont know if im explaining it clearly..if anyone has any questions feel free.

I think I understand your system. Basically you are trying to play the linesmaker's by comparing where the 2nd half line is according to what it should be. Let's we have a game spread of 210. When the First half is offered we see that the linsemaker set the line at 112 that means that the 2nd half line should be 108...However if the action in the game is dictating them to raise or lower that number we should follow the raise or drop. If the line offered is 109 then we should play the over. If the line is 107 we should play an under.

I believe the position that you are taking is that the linemaker is going to keep the 2nd half line somewhat closer to the original split because otherwise it may become somewhat exploitable with better analysis or middling and the limited time in order to come up with a trueline is going to cause them to underadjust the line due to the use of their models to determine likely totals before the game starts.

Am I somewhat close to what you were thinking?

PK

[mavskidd02]

Miss the LA Over by one fucking point, if they dont foul mason game goes to OT and garunteed winner. tough break NCM, i like the system, keep working on it

[NoCashMcgraff]

I think I understand your system. Basically you are trying to play the linesmaker's by comparing where the 2nd half line is according to what it should be. Let's we have a game spread of 210. When the First half is offered we see that the linsemaker set the line at 112 that means that the 2nd half line should be 108...However if the action in the game is dictating them to raise or lower that number we should follow the raise or drop. If the line offered is 109 then we should play the over. If the line is 107 we should play an under.

I believe the position that you are taking is that the linemaker is going to keep the 2nd half line somewhat closer to the original split because otherwise it may become somewhat exploitable with better analysis or middling and the limited time in order to come up with a trueline is going to cause them to underadjust the line due to the use of their models to determine likely totals before the game starts.

Am I somewhat close to what you were thinking?

PK

this is exactly correct. However, to make myself feel better so to speak I think I am going to eliminate to games with 1 pt disparities..these seem too common for me..I am trying to devise a system in which the plays are not very common..seems more likely to be a reliable system (at least to me) if its occurs less frequently..so, I will be tracking games with a disparity of 1.5 or higher..

[NoCashMcgraff]

2nd half over sac/gs 112.5...1.5 disparity

[poskid]

Keep a spreadsheet of the disparity between the lines and whether it is an over or an under. After about 20-40 collections you should have at least an idea of whether it is possible that you are on to something it will also show you where the soft spots are. The reason that it only takes about 20-40 is because when you are talking about win/loss bets the data tends to converge quickly. Since we have to hit roughly 60% to be exploitable...if you havent at least broken even after 40 then it is very unlikely that the data will converge back to a reasonable winrate. If you see that it is 50-50 then start to look at the numbers and you may see some patterns that emerge where you can find a possible betting strategy depending upon disparity.

Hopefully this makes sense for you. And good luck. I hope you stick with this for a bit and see where it takes you.

PK

[NoCashMcgraff]

3-3 overall..

1 point disparity 1-2
1.5 point disparity 1-0
2 Point disparity 1-1

From now on I will only be tracking disparities of 1.5 and above. Those went 2-1 on the night.

[NoCashMcgraff]

hahah, oh boy - not sure exactly what happened but according to my own system the Sacto/Warriors OVER was NOT a play. I am tracking down the plays and keeping tabs on everything taking a lot of notes and realized I made a mistake by posting it. Hopefully some followed because it was a WINNER! but I will not count it towards the system.

System went 1-1 with the disparities of 1.5 and above. Ill be back tomorrow. I figure this process will take roughly a month to get a good sample size.

[Spearit]

Taking notice

I hope the system bears fruit. It is simple enough and stranger things have happened.

poskid explained his understanding of it and I will just say that it is a system to monitor. However, Vegas sets the lines in this manner (my opinion) based on previous games between the two teams first and then most recently. From there, it is anyones perception. You can get previous history of teams playing at home and how they play in the second half generally. You will see that overall, its uncanny that they are not far from the mark. This 2 point swing can happen as you have mentioned. I can't tell you of how many times we have been beaten by a !/2 point difference.

I wish you success in building your systems and playing them when they are hot for surely it slides the other way when you think that you are on to something that can't lose.

[NoCashMcgraff]

System trial play #3 - Blazers/Nets 2nd half over 95.5 (1.5 pt disparity)

system 1-1 so far