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Nick Bogdanovich
1/14/2009
CATCHING UP WITH NBA POINTSPREAD RECORDS
I’ll start talking a lot more about pro and college basketball in the coming days and weeks now that football season is winding down.
I’ll still have the regular weekend edition of “What the Sharps Think” about the NFL Championship games this Saturday morning. Then, we’ll have a Super Bowl edition for that two weeks hence. Other developments may cause the need for additional football articles. Otherwise, it’s time to focus on hoops!
Today I wanted to get everyone caught up on where NBA teams stand against the spread so far this season. We’re nearing the midway point already, with everyone closing in on the 40-game mark in the next few days. In most professional sports, it’s hard for teams to post very good or very bad ATS records. It’s a confined league, which makes it more manageable for oddsmamkers to monitor. Generally, they’ll be able to adjust quickly to good streaks or bad streaks. I say generally, because there are always exceptions to the rule.
Let’s look at those exceptions to this point in the season. Whenever one-sided records exist at the halfway mark of a season, there’s a good chance that oddsmakers have been to slow on the trigger…and may STILL be behind the curve in terms of measuring reality.
MOST UNDERRATED TEAMS SO FAR
*Cleveland: 25-10 ATS
It took oddsmakers forever to realize that Cleveland is for real as a championship contender. And, given their cover against Boston last week, you could make the case that the market still isn’t given them enough respect. The stats show a team that is on pace to tie the very best of Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls teams. Oddsmakers priced them like the same old “B+” Cavaliers team when they had surged to an “A+” in dominant fashion. Most or all of the value is gone here in terms of the blowout spreads you see against bad teams. The Cavs may still have room to overachieve against other playoff contenders. The market just doesn’t realize what’s happening with this team!
*Orlando: 25-12-1 ATS
Talk about the market not noticing something. Orlando has been on a tear of late. They’re basically playing as good as Cleveland, they just waited longer to kick it into gear. In the case of Cleveland, we’re talking about a team with a 71% cover rate so far. With Orlando, it’s 68%. That just shouldn’t happen in a professional sport this deep into a season. Everyone was paying so much attention to Boston and the LA Lakers that they really took their eye off the ball regarding the Magic and Cavs. Based on recent results, I don’t think the market is up to speed here. Orlando has covered its last three games, and is 15-3 ATS its last 18 games. Wake up people!
*Milwaukee: 25-13-2 ATS
Scott Skiles has done a great job with the Bucks. He’s got them playing defense after they stopped trying on that side of the ball last year. He also lit a fire under Andrew Bogut. Any time a big guy is playing with enthusiasm and energy, it’s going to be a good thing in the NBA. It’s hard to see these guys as championship material come playoff time. The athletes just aren’t there. But, they’re bringing intensity almost every time out right now. That puts you into position to cover in this league. Many teams take nights off. Milwaukee rarely does. That’s why they’re knocking at the door of 67% success through half a season.
*Oklahoma City: 25-14-1 ATS
Boy is this a shocker! Oklahoma City started the season very poorly under PJ Carlesimo. They didn’t win too many games at first after he was dismissed. The whole country just seemed to give up on them. They’re now the fourth best cover team in the NBA! Russell Westbrook has risen to the head of the rookie class with his stellar play since early December. The Thunder are an incredible 20-6 ATS since Carlesimo was fired. They still have trouble winning games straight up because of their youth and inexperience. They’ve been as good as gold in terms of underdog value with the new coach. This is a big sports wagering story that almost everyone has missed.
MOST OVERRATED TEAMS SO FAR
*Dallas: 15-22 ATS
I should first note that we don’t have any teams who are as “bad” as the hot teams are “good” in terms of the spread. All four teams I listed above are plus double digits in the won-lost column so far ATS. There aren’t any teams who are worse than seven games below .500 as I write this. Dallas is bringing up the rear with minus 9 net losers (counting vigorish). The Jason Kidd trade didn’t work out at all the way they had hoped. And, it’s hard to say the coaching change is really helping much either. The Dirk Nowitzki era may end without a championship. Mark Cuban seems resigned to the fact that the deck is stacked against him in this league right now.
*Phoenix: 13-20 ATS
The Suns are another Western team who haven’t lived up to expectations since trying to rebuild for last year’s playoffs. Shaquille O’Neal gets respect from the gambling markets, but his teams haven’t offered value for quite some time. The Suns aren’t quite as bad as the Mavericks at this point in terms of meeting expectations. It’s close. The window may have closed on this franchise as well. Making big trades and changing coaches isn’t always a recipe for success!
*Toronto: 16-22-1 ATS
Here’s another team that’s seen some turmoil this year in the coaching and lineup departments. The Raptors did just take Boston to overtime Monday Night though, so you can’t say that they’ve thrown in the towel or anything. They were expected to be an Eastern power. Orlando turned out to be the team that came off the radar instead of the Raptors. *Chicago: 16-22 ATS
Derrick Rose is getting a ton of hype from the media. Maybe that’s why the Bulls are doing so bad against the spread. ESPN keeps telling everyone how great Rose is, while opponents aren’t having much trouble containing the team as a whole. It’s also worth noting that three of the four hot teams play in the East. Chicago has run into those guys a few times, and doesn’t match up particularly well with teams who know what they’re doing. They’re coach is a rookie, and they’re star is a rookie. That can be a good thing for handicappers when expectations are very low (as we saw in Oklahoma City). It’s a bad thing when the market expects too much. There are 30 teams in the NBA. 22 of them aren’t listed today because they’re in the middle of the pack in terms of meeting expectations. It’s very hard in professional sports to find a team to you can just ride or fade all the way to the bank. Having FOUR teams so far over .500 nearing the midway mark is a surprise…and, frankly, a strike against oddsmakers. They should have reacted better than that. Hopefully you’ve been taking advantage. I know Cleveland fans are getting rich this year! Ohio has a lot of pointspread-minded people.
1/14/2009
CATCHING UP WITH NBA POINTSPREAD RECORDS
I’ll start talking a lot more about pro and college basketball in the coming days and weeks now that football season is winding down.
I’ll still have the regular weekend edition of “What the Sharps Think” about the NFL Championship games this Saturday morning. Then, we’ll have a Super Bowl edition for that two weeks hence. Other developments may cause the need for additional football articles. Otherwise, it’s time to focus on hoops!
Today I wanted to get everyone caught up on where NBA teams stand against the spread so far this season. We’re nearing the midway point already, with everyone closing in on the 40-game mark in the next few days. In most professional sports, it’s hard for teams to post very good or very bad ATS records. It’s a confined league, which makes it more manageable for oddsmamkers to monitor. Generally, they’ll be able to adjust quickly to good streaks or bad streaks. I say generally, because there are always exceptions to the rule.
Let’s look at those exceptions to this point in the season. Whenever one-sided records exist at the halfway mark of a season, there’s a good chance that oddsmakers have been to slow on the trigger…and may STILL be behind the curve in terms of measuring reality.
MOST UNDERRATED TEAMS SO FAR
*Cleveland: 25-10 ATS
It took oddsmakers forever to realize that Cleveland is for real as a championship contender. And, given their cover against Boston last week, you could make the case that the market still isn’t given them enough respect. The stats show a team that is on pace to tie the very best of Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls teams. Oddsmakers priced them like the same old “B+” Cavaliers team when they had surged to an “A+” in dominant fashion. Most or all of the value is gone here in terms of the blowout spreads you see against bad teams. The Cavs may still have room to overachieve against other playoff contenders. The market just doesn’t realize what’s happening with this team!
*Orlando: 25-12-1 ATS
Talk about the market not noticing something. Orlando has been on a tear of late. They’re basically playing as good as Cleveland, they just waited longer to kick it into gear. In the case of Cleveland, we’re talking about a team with a 71% cover rate so far. With Orlando, it’s 68%. That just shouldn’t happen in a professional sport this deep into a season. Everyone was paying so much attention to Boston and the LA Lakers that they really took their eye off the ball regarding the Magic and Cavs. Based on recent results, I don’t think the market is up to speed here. Orlando has covered its last three games, and is 15-3 ATS its last 18 games. Wake up people!
*Milwaukee: 25-13-2 ATS
Scott Skiles has done a great job with the Bucks. He’s got them playing defense after they stopped trying on that side of the ball last year. He also lit a fire under Andrew Bogut. Any time a big guy is playing with enthusiasm and energy, it’s going to be a good thing in the NBA. It’s hard to see these guys as championship material come playoff time. The athletes just aren’t there. But, they’re bringing intensity almost every time out right now. That puts you into position to cover in this league. Many teams take nights off. Milwaukee rarely does. That’s why they’re knocking at the door of 67% success through half a season.
*Oklahoma City: 25-14-1 ATS
Boy is this a shocker! Oklahoma City started the season very poorly under PJ Carlesimo. They didn’t win too many games at first after he was dismissed. The whole country just seemed to give up on them. They’re now the fourth best cover team in the NBA! Russell Westbrook has risen to the head of the rookie class with his stellar play since early December. The Thunder are an incredible 20-6 ATS since Carlesimo was fired. They still have trouble winning games straight up because of their youth and inexperience. They’ve been as good as gold in terms of underdog value with the new coach. This is a big sports wagering story that almost everyone has missed.
MOST OVERRATED TEAMS SO FAR
*Dallas: 15-22 ATS
I should first note that we don’t have any teams who are as “bad” as the hot teams are “good” in terms of the spread. All four teams I listed above are plus double digits in the won-lost column so far ATS. There aren’t any teams who are worse than seven games below .500 as I write this. Dallas is bringing up the rear with minus 9 net losers (counting vigorish). The Jason Kidd trade didn’t work out at all the way they had hoped. And, it’s hard to say the coaching change is really helping much either. The Dirk Nowitzki era may end without a championship. Mark Cuban seems resigned to the fact that the deck is stacked against him in this league right now.
*Phoenix: 13-20 ATS
The Suns are another Western team who haven’t lived up to expectations since trying to rebuild for last year’s playoffs. Shaquille O’Neal gets respect from the gambling markets, but his teams haven’t offered value for quite some time. The Suns aren’t quite as bad as the Mavericks at this point in terms of meeting expectations. It’s close. The window may have closed on this franchise as well. Making big trades and changing coaches isn’t always a recipe for success!
*Toronto: 16-22-1 ATS
Here’s another team that’s seen some turmoil this year in the coaching and lineup departments. The Raptors did just take Boston to overtime Monday Night though, so you can’t say that they’ve thrown in the towel or anything. They were expected to be an Eastern power. Orlando turned out to be the team that came off the radar instead of the Raptors. *Chicago: 16-22 ATS
Derrick Rose is getting a ton of hype from the media. Maybe that’s why the Bulls are doing so bad against the spread. ESPN keeps telling everyone how great Rose is, while opponents aren’t having much trouble containing the team as a whole. It’s also worth noting that three of the four hot teams play in the East. Chicago has run into those guys a few times, and doesn’t match up particularly well with teams who know what they’re doing. They’re coach is a rookie, and they’re star is a rookie. That can be a good thing for handicappers when expectations are very low (as we saw in Oklahoma City). It’s a bad thing when the market expects too much. There are 30 teams in the NBA. 22 of them aren’t listed today because they’re in the middle of the pack in terms of meeting expectations. It’s very hard in professional sports to find a team to you can just ride or fade all the way to the bank. Having FOUR teams so far over .500 nearing the midway mark is a surprise…and, frankly, a strike against oddsmakers. They should have reacted better than that. Hopefully you’ve been taking advantage. I know Cleveland fans are getting rich this year! Ohio has a lot of pointspread-minded people.