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Waialae CC which lies on the Oahu is known for its tight fairways and sand protected greens. Better ball strikers will have an advantage especially with the winds that are expected to be around 20 mph on Thursday and Friday. Players who naturally keep the ball low will have percentages to succeed early in the week. But along with the wind, rain is expected to come with it, so there might be some delays and a saturated course. Be aware that this is the 2nd tournament of the year and most players are making their 1st appearance. I use recent performance in golf pretty heavily in my handicapping. On to the plays which are all tournament matchups.
Jerry Kelly -110 over Ryuji Imada
Kelly has four top 5's and six top 13's in seven starts in the event. He is a veteran that grinds out big paychecks where he knows he can succeed and I expect him play well once again here. Imada's last 4 appearances in this event have resulted in a MC, 20th, 36th, and 69th place finishes; nothing spectacular.
Steve Stricker -120 over Kenny Perry
This play worries me a little bit in that how far Kenny Perry has come in the last year. His game has imrpoved immensley, but his track record here is so awful I can't ignore it. In six starts in the last seven years at the Sony, he has just one Top 25 which was way back in 2002, and has missed three of his last four cuts. Steve Stricker on the other hand has had very good results here. Two tied 4th place finishes in the last two years is enough reason for me to like the veteran this week. He hits it low, which will help separate him from the field when the wind howls Thursday and Friday. Perry who is a draw player may be fighting with the winds all day if play is allowed.
KJ Choi -110 over Adam Scott
KJ Choi has improved every time in this event. In 2006 he finished 13th, 2007 - 4th, 2008 - 1st. There is good reason for that because it's not how far you blast the ball at Waialae, it's where you put it and how creative you are around the greens, which suites Choi. Scott has yet to make a serious run at the Sony Open in three starts. He has a 18th, 20th, and a missed cut. I love to fade Scott as he is one of the most overrated players on the tour. Waialae is a track that rewards accuracy over pure power.
Jerry Kelly -110 over Ryuji Imada
Kelly has four top 5's and six top 13's in seven starts in the event. He is a veteran that grinds out big paychecks where he knows he can succeed and I expect him play well once again here. Imada's last 4 appearances in this event have resulted in a MC, 20th, 36th, and 69th place finishes; nothing spectacular.
Steve Stricker -120 over Kenny Perry
This play worries me a little bit in that how far Kenny Perry has come in the last year. His game has imrpoved immensley, but his track record here is so awful I can't ignore it. In six starts in the last seven years at the Sony, he has just one Top 25 which was way back in 2002, and has missed three of his last four cuts. Steve Stricker on the other hand has had very good results here. Two tied 4th place finishes in the last two years is enough reason for me to like the veteran this week. He hits it low, which will help separate him from the field when the wind howls Thursday and Friday. Perry who is a draw player may be fighting with the winds all day if play is allowed.
KJ Choi -110 over Adam Scott
KJ Choi has improved every time in this event. In 2006 he finished 13th, 2007 - 4th, 2008 - 1st. There is good reason for that because it's not how far you blast the ball at Waialae, it's where you put it and how creative you are around the greens, which suites Choi. Scott has yet to make a serious run at the Sony Open in three starts. He has a 18th, 20th, and a missed cut. I love to fade Scott as he is one of the most overrated players on the tour. Waialae is a track that rewards accuracy over pure power.
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