Announcement

**Udog** · 01-14-2009, 12:29 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Conference Championships

Sunday, January 18th

NFC Playoffs
Championship Game
TV: FOX
Philadelphia at Arizona, 3:00 ET

Philadelphia:
11-1 ATS off division game
6-0 ATS off road division win

Arizona:
7-0 Over off SU dog win
10-0 Over off an Under

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AFC Playoffs
Championship Game
TV: CBS
Baltimore at Pittsburgh, 6:30 ET

Baltimore:
8-2 ATS in road games
9-0 ATS off win by 3pts or less

Pittsburgh:
0-9 ATS after scoring 35+ points
15-5 Over vs. AFC

**Udog** · 01-14-2009, 12:30 PM

NFL

Sunday, January 18

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Trend Sheet
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Sunday, January 18

3:00 PM PHILADELPHIA vs. ARIZONA
Philadelphia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Arizona is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

6:30 PM BALTIMORE vs. PITTSBURGH
Baltimore is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Baltimore is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Pittsburgh is 14-7 ATS in its last 21 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Baltimore

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**pm530** · 01-15-2009, 04:19 AM

NFL

Sunday, January 18

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Tips and Trends
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NFC Title: Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals [FOX | 3 PM ET]

Eagles (-4, O/U 47): Philadelphia will be playing for a spot in the Super Bowl for the fifth time in eight years but will be trying to get back there for just the second time during that stretch. This year's run seems the most unlikely as a Wild Card team and will be the team's first on the road since 2001 at St. Louis against Kurt Warner. The Eagles lost that game to the Rams 29-24, and a lot has obviously changed for Warner and Donovan McNabb since then. Ironically, Philly's turnaround this year took place at home against Arizona in Week 13, resulting in a 48-20 victory and leading to six wins in seven weeks.

Eagles are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games.
The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Philadelphia's last 9 playoff games.

Key Injuries - RB Brian Westbrook (knee) is probable.
WR Jason Avant (knee) is probable.
OG Shawn Andrews (back) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24

Cardinals: Very few gave Arizona a shot to win last week at Carolina after watching a team that went 0-5 on the East Coast during the regular season go up against an opponent that had not lost a game at home. Now the Cardinals need to prove that shocking 33-13 upset of the Panthers was no fluke. “Not many people had very nice things to say about us and didn’t give us a chance,” Arizona head coach Ken Whisenhunt said. “We believe in ourselves. I like being the underdog, and we’re going to continue to be the underdog.”

Cardinals are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
The OVER is 8-1 in Arizona's last 9 home games.

Key Injuries - WR Anquan Boldin (hamstring) is questionable.
TE Stephen Spach (leg) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 23 (Side Play of the Day)

AFC Title: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers [CBS | 6:30 PM ET]

Ravens: Baltimore owns a remarkable 8-to-1 turnover advantage, which has helped QB Joe Flacco become the first rookie in NFL history to win twice on the road in the playoffs. Flacco has not needed to do much at Miami and Tennessee over the last couple weeks thanks to a strong defense, but playing mistake-free football also shouldn't be undervalued. “We’ve been confident in ourselves all year,” Flacco said. “It seems like we’ve been on the road for the longest time. It doesn’t matter to us. We’re going to go out there and battle the crowd, battle the other team, and give it our best.”

Ravens are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. AFC.
The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Key Injuries - DE Terrell Suggs (shoulder) is questionable.
CB Samari Rolle (groin) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 10 (UNDER - Total Play of the Day)

Steelers (-6, O/U 34): Pittsburgh will be appearing in the AFC title game for the fourth time in eight years and first under head coach Mike Tomlin. The Steelers have split eight meetings with the Ravens since winning Super Bowl XL, and five of those games have been decided by six points or less. “We’re at the point of the season where it’s about “It would be a big game if it was a scrimmage,” Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin said. “This is for the AFC championship.”

Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
The OVER is 15-2 in Pittsburgh's last 17 January games.

Key Injuries - S Troy Polamalu (calf) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17

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**BettorsChat** · 01-15-2009, 12:37 PM

NFL Playoff Statistical Analysis
Scoring
• Home teams scoring 26.0 PPG or more are just 14-21 ATS
(40%) - Record in ’09: 2-1 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Arizona
• Road teams allowing less than 17 PPG are 19-11 ATS (63.3%)
- Record in ’09: 2-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore
• Home teams outscoring their opponents by less than 5.0 PPG
on the season are 8-14 ATS (36.4%) - Record in ’09: 1-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Arizona
Rushing Stats
• Home teams that average 106 RYPG or less are 15-5 ATS
(75.0%) - Record in ’09: 2-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Arizona, Pittsburgh
• Road teams that allow 3.90 YPR or fewer are 27-11 ATS (71.1%)
- Record in ’09: 3-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore, Philadelphia
• Road teams that allow fewer than 100.0 RYPG are 25-14 ATS
(64.1%) - Record in ’09: 4-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore, Philadelphia
Passing Stats
• Home teams that gain more than 7.40 yards per pass attempt
or more on the season are just 9-17 ATS (34.6%) - Record in
’09: 2-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Arizona
• Home teams that allow 192.0 PYPG or fewer are 11-16 ATS
(40.7%) - Record in ’09: 1-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Pittsburgh
Yards Per Play Stats
• Road teams that yield 4.90 yards per play or fewer on defense
are 17-5 ATS (77.2%) - Record in ’09: 4-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore, Philadelphia
• Home teams outgaining their opponents by 1.00 or more yards
per play are just 2-9 ATS (18.2%) - Record in ’09: 1-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Pittsburgh
• Road teams outgaining their opponents by 0.25 or more yards
per play on the season are 15-7 ATS (68.2%) - Record in ’09:
5-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore, Philadelphia
Turnover Stats
• Road teams that enjoyed a turnover differential of more than
+1.00 per game on the season are 8-2 ATS (80%) - Record in
’09: 0-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore

**BettorsChat** · 01-15-2009, 12:37 PM

Key System
- Play Against any team that knocks off the defending
Super Bowl champions if their next game is not in the Super
Bowl. (9-1 ATS)

Here are some top trend angles on this game:
Favoring Philadelphia
* PHILADELPHIA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) vs. excellent passing
teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+
games since 1992. The average score was PHILADELPHIA
27.5, OPPONENT 24.8 - (Rating = 1*)
Favoring Arizona
* ARIZONA is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) vs. good teams - outscoring
opponents by 6+ PPG on the season since 1992. The average
score was ARIZONA 18.4, OPPONENT 23.1 - (Rating = 1*)
Favoring Over the Total
* ARIZONA is 7-1 OVER (+5.9 Units) when playing against a
team with a winning record this season. The average score was
ARIZONA 25.9, OPPONENT 28.0 - (Rating = 1*)
Favoring Under the Total
* Reid is 20-10 UNDER (+9.0 Units) vs. bad defensive teams who
give up 24 or more points/game as the coach of PHILADELPHIA.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 22.4, OPPONENT 16.4

Here are some top trend angles on this game:
Favoring Baltimore
* PITTSBURGH is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) after scoring 35 points or
more last game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was
PITTSBURGH 19.1, OPPONENT 23.9 - (Rating = 4*)
Favoring Pittsburgh
* PITTSBURGH is 38-18 ATS (+18.2 Units) as a home favorite of
3.5 to 7 points since 1992. The average score was PITTSBURGH
24.4, OPPONENT 16.2 - (Rating = 1*)
Favoring Over the Total
* PITTSBURGH is 15-5 OVER (+9.5 Units) in home games
against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons. The
average score was PITTSBURGH 25.3, OPPONENT 16.7 -
(Rating = 1*)
Favoring Under the Total
* BALTIMORE is 20-7 UNDER (+12.3 Units) after 3 or more
consecutive wins since 1992. The average score was BALTIMORE
17.7, OPPONENT 12.0 - (Rating = 1*)

**BettorsChat** · 01-15-2009, 12:39 PM

Since 1970, in Conference Championship games where the line is less than 10 points, the winning team is a perfect 63-0-2 against the spread.

Overall teams that win in the conference finals are 68-6-2 ATS since 1970. All six non-c overs were double digit favorites:

1983 Redskins -10.5 vs. 49ers 24-21W
1991 Bills -11 vs. Broncos 10-7W
1995 Steelers -12 vs. Colts 20-16W
1999 Rams -14 vs. Buccaneers 11-6W
2001 Rams -12 vs. Eagles 29-24W
2008 Patriots -15 vs. Chargers 21-12W

**Udog** · 01-15-2009, 07:33 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Conference Championships

Baltimore at Pittsburgh
The Ravens come in with an 8-2 ATS record on the road this season and 7-3 ATS as an underdog. Baltimore is the underdog pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Steelers favored by just 3. Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, JANUARY 18

Game 313-314: Philadelphia at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 141.578; Arizona 139.069
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 51 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 4; 47
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+4); Over

Game 315-316: Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 143.463; Pittsburgh 146.477
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 31
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 6; 34
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+6); Under

**Udog** · 01-17-2009, 10:23 PM

NFL
Write-Up

Conference Championships

Sunday, January 18

Arizona went to Philly Thanksgiving night, got drilled 48-20 (+3); now they're 3-point dog at home? That game was impossible scheduling spot for Redbirds, who already had division wrapped up. Cardinals just beat Falcons, Panthers; their QB is 2-0 in NFC title games, including win vs Eagles seven years ago in St Louis. Boldin is expected to play for first time in two weeks; that will open up short crossing patterns. Philly won six of last seven games after 36-7 debacle vs Ravens when McNabb got benched-- this is their third straight road game. Since NFL merger, home underdogs in conference championship games are 7-6.

Steelers beat rival Baltimore twice this season, 23-20 (-5) in OT back in Week 4, then 13-9 (+2.5) on road in Week 15, with only touchdown of game scoring on controversial replay reversal. Ravens outrushed Pitt in both games (103-69/112-91), but averaged just 3.9/3.0 yards/pass try in the two games, so Flacco needs to play couple big plays here. Steelers scored two offensive TDs on 23 drives in the two games, but got sweep; they got defensive TD in first meeting. Pitt won last five home games. Ravens are on road for third straight week, and fourth time in five- they won last four games (three of four on road) and nine of last 11 overall.

**pm530** · 01-18-2009, 06:28 AM

NFL
What Bettors Need to Know

NFL Conference Championships, Sunday, January 18

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What bettors need to know: NFC championship game

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (+4, 47)

Time: Sunday 3 p.m. ET, FOX

Line movement

It opened at a field goal at most books and has jumped a point toward Philly. Reportedly, about 75 percent of all the betting money is on the Eagles as of this writing. The total, meanwhile, has varied at most sites and has changed as much as two points, but it's generally down about a point from opening.

Weather

Come on, it's Arizona. It is supposed to be beautiful. But it won’t matter - the Cards are expected to have the University of Phoenix Stadium roof closed. That was the case for Arizona's wild-card victory over Atlanta and the team no doubt will want to enhance the crowd noise in the biggest home game in Arizona Cardinals history.

“I’m looking forward to seeing a whole new level this week because that first week against the Falcons was unbelievable,” coach Ken Whisenhunt said to reporters. “I can only imagine what it’s going to be like this week — but I’m very excited about that.”
For what it's worth, the home team has up to 90 minutes before kickoff to decide. The Eagles have been piping in crowd noise at their practices to prepare.

First meeting

You may not remember this game because you could have been sleeping off that turkey dinner at the time, but Donovan McNabb returned from a benching the week before against Baltimore and threw four touchdowns in a Thanksgiving night 48-20 rout of Arizona in Philadelphia.

Eagles running back Brian Westbrook matched McNabb's four scores, becoming the fourth player in NFL history with two rushing touchdowns, two receiving touchdowns and 100-plus rushing yards in a game.

The Eagles held Arizona to 25 yards rushing, 260 total yards and just 12 first downs. That was also the last game that Philadelphia allowed more than 14 points.

Injury report

Arizona will be without tight end Stephen Spach, who tore his ACL against Carolina. Spach wasn't much of a pass-catcher, although he did make a key grab on third-and-16 in the Atlanta game to essentially clinch the win for Arizona. His blocking was also considered a big part of the Cards' recent resurgence on the ground.

Leonard Pope and Ben Patrick, who both have been ailing, likely will share time replacing Spach. The team also brought back Jerame Tuman.

The good news for Arizona backers is that Pro Bowl WR Anquan Boldin will play. He practiced Wednesday and Thursday after sitting out the win over Carolina following his hammy injury suffered against the Falcons. He guaranteed he would be on the field Sunday.

Boldin is ready for a little redemption. In the Thanksgiving night loss to Philly, he had five catches for 63 yards but a dropped pass in the end zone and had a fumble. He said afterward it might have been his worst game as a pro.

For the Eagles, running back Brian Westbrook returned to a limited practice on Friday after not practicing at all Wednesday or Thursday. He reportedly reinjured his knee in the Giant game, but he is probable.

“It just feels good right now,” Westbrook said. “I don’t worry about it at all. My knee’s fine.”

Also probable for Philly are right tackle Jon Runyan and fullback Dan Klecko. Former All-Pro guard Shane Andrews, out since Week 2, actually practiced some this week but won't play. He could return for the Super Bowl, however.

The injuries aren't limited to the players for Philly. Defensive coordinator Jim Johnson isn’t sure yet where he will coach from. Johnson threw his back out a few weeks ago and has a bulging disc. He coached from the press box in last week's win over the Giants and it seemed to work. Philly held the G-Men to no touchdowns and just three field goals on five trips inside the 20.

Secondary coach Sean McDermott signaled plays to middle linebacker Stewart Bradley against New York. Johnson said there's "a pretty good chance" they'll use the same arrangement against Arizona.

This and that

The Cardinals are the first team to go 9-7 in the regular season and then host a conference championship game.

Arizona quarterback Kurt Warner is 7-2 in the postseason and has a 63 percent completion percentage with 2,712 yards and 19 touchdowns against just 12 picks. Warner has thrown an interception in both playoff games this year, but Arizona is a whopping plus-7 in turnover differential (and 9-0 this year when getting two turnovers). The Cardinals had just 13 interceptions in the regular season, yet have seven in two playoff games – thank you, Jake Delhomme.

The Eagles' Westbrook hasn’t rushed for more than 53 yards or higher than a 3.8-yards-per-carry average since Week 14. He is averaging just 1.9 yards per carry in the postseason. Subtract his 71-yard TD on a screen pass in the wild-card game versus Minnesota and he is averaging just 3.6 yards per touch in the last five games.

Arizona receiver Larry Fitzgerald has 14 receptions, 267 receiving yards and two touchdowns in these playoffs, and that's without Boldin around for a game-and-a-half. Fitzgerald had two touchdowns in the first meeting with Philly. However, the Eagles have allowed just 322 total passing yards and picked off three passes in the first two playoff games.

In the Eagles' last seven games, McNabb has completed 63.3 percent of his pass attempts and has thrown 11 touchdowns and just four interceptions – although two of those picks came last week and one came against the Vikings.

The Arizona offense has scored fewer than 29 points at home only once this season and when Arizona has scored 30 or more points, the Cards are 8-1 ATS.

Nine times overall has a team in NFL history lost to another team by 28-plus points in the regular season and then avenged that loss with a playoff victory.

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What Bettors Need to Know: AFC championship game

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5, 34.5)

Time: Sunday 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Weather Forecast

The forecast in Pittsburgh calls for temperatures in the 20s with a chance of snow flurries for the 6:30 pm local time kickoff.

Ravens Banged up

Nobody questions that Ravens’ toughness. However, after seventeen straight games without a bye, including two playoff road games and a brutal affair against the Titans last week, there’s no denying that the team is banged up. Eleven starters were limited or out altogether in practice on Thursday.

Among the most notable of the walking wounded are CB Samari Rolle and DE/LB Terrell Suggs. It’s up in the air whether one or both will be able to play on Sunday.

On the Line

If there is a weak point for the Steelers, many believe it’s the offensive line. In addition to allowing consistent pressure on Ben Roethlisberger, the Steeler line has a lowly 58 percent conversion rate on third and fourth downs of three yards or less. The Ravens offensive line, by comparison, has a conversion rate of 73 percent in the same situation. Any such struggles on the Steeler line could be a problem versus a strong Ravens front seven led by mammoth NT Haloti Ngata.

One sign of encouragement may be that the Pitt front has played better in the latter part of the year. After allowing 29 sacks in the first eight games, the number was reduced to 20 in the second eight.

Flacco

Joe Flacco has not been spectacular in the playoffs, but he has avoided crucial mistakes. Over the last two weeks he has completed 44.4 percnet of his passes with only one touchdown throw. He may have to do more to give the Ravens a shot on Sunday.

The rookie will have to improve upon his most recent appearance against the Steelers, in which he passed for 115 yards with two interceptions and a passer rating of 22.2. Flacco had a combined passer rating of 53.4 in two starts against Pittsburgh as opposed to his 84.5 rating against the rest of the league.

Fast Willie

Steeler RB Willie Parker provided a big boost with his healthy return against San Diego, rushing for 146 yards with two TD runs in the process.

Some believe that Parker has a chance to do damage against a Raven defense that struggled to contain the similarly speedy Titans RB Chris Johnson last week. If so, Parker will have to overcome a spotty history in which, over the course of six career games against the Ravens, he has not rushed for more than 63 yards and has yet to post a touchdown run.

Turnover Factor

The Ravens have thrived on turnovers, forcing five interceptions and three fumbles in two playoff games. The most notable ball hawk is safety Ed Reed, the league leader in interceptions.

However, Steeler QB Ben Roethlisberger has shown an ability to steer clear of danger. Reed has no picks in his last five games against Pittsburgh.

Meet James Harrison

Steeler LB James Harrison, the NFL Defensive Player of the Year, has terrorized the Ravens, particularly in Pittsburgh. In his last two home games against Baltimore, Harrison has six sacks, 17 tackles, four forced fumbles, one fumble recovery and one interception.

On the Road Again

While Baltimore has an excellent 7-3 road record after two playoff wins away from home, they face a difficult task in winning their third consecutive playoff game on the road. Since the current 12-team playoff system was adopted in 1990, a total of five teams have advanced to the conference title game on the road after winning the prior two on the road. While the Giants pulled the trick last year, advancing on to win the Super Bowl, three of the other four road warrior squads (’95 Colts, ’96 Jags and ’06 Panthers) all lost the conference championship. The ’06 Steelers, on the other hand, join the Giants as the only other team of this era to move on to the Super Bowl.

Pass the Heinz

The Ravens have lost seven of their last eight at Pittsburgh’s Heinz Field.

The Steelers are 1-4 in their last five championship games at home, 0-2 at Heinz Field.

Third Time a Charm? For Steelers Maybe

Contrary to popular opinion, it is not historically difficult to beat the same team three times in a season as the Steelers are seeking to do against the Ravens. Since the NFL-AFL merger of 1970, eighteen teams have met an opponent for a third time after winning the first two. Of these eighteen cases, eleven times the team that the won the first two went on to win the third (61 percent). In cases where the 2-0 team played the third game at home, the 2-0 team is 9-4 (69 percent).

Line Moves

The Steelers opened as a 5-point favorite before moving up to six fairly quickly.

The over/under opened at 33 before moving to 33.5 and then the current number of 34.

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Announcement

NFL Conference Championships Trends and Indexes 1/18

NFL Conference Championships Trends and Indexes 1/18

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