Conference Championship Picks

[roccodean]

Whats up fellas, putting my pick in early to get it at 3. Went to 3.5 at a couple of websites already. Will have write up shortly.

1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit (6% of bankroll)
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units

3* Philly -3 over Ariz (-130)

[roccodean]

Downgrading Philly to 2*
The key to this game is getting to Warner. If you let him stand in the pocket he will kill you, but if you get sacks and knock-downs he will make mistakes. Warner is a statue in the pocket and Philly’s defensive coordinator (Jim Jones) is the best at blitz schemes and getting pressure on QB’s. Philly averages 3 sacks/game (3rd during the regular season) and should be able to continue this trend. I don’t put too much stock into the score (48-20) during their week 13 battle because Philly was in a great spot that game (Philly dominated the game and had the ball for 40 minutes compared to Zona’s 20). But, what I do look at is that Warner threw 3 picks because of the pressure Philly got on him, although they did not get any sacks. Arizona averaged only 3.5 YPR (31st in the NFL) during the regular season. The media is praising their new “great running game”, but they are actually averaging only 3.2 YPR in the postseason! They have ran the ball 71 times the last two games (versus 21 rushes/game during the regular season) so they are making opposing teams respect their running game more. Philly’s D has been able to shut down the run all year so I don’t foresee this to be a problem. The Eagles only allow 3.5 YPR and 6.1 YPPA. I don’t see the Cards moving the ball as easily as they have the last couple weeks. Arizona’s run D is average allowing 4 YPR during the regular season and 3.5 YPR in the postseason. The game is in McNabb’s hands because Zona’s pass D is bad allowing 7.2 YPPA (22nd during regular season) and 221 YPG. Arizona has been fortunate this postseason due to a +7 turnover ratio. They did outplay Atlanta (1 yard/play more) but they were also +2 in turnovers. Last week versus Carolina, the Panthers actually averaged 5.3 yards/play versus the Cardinals’ 4.7, so don’t let the score fool you. At first I thought this line was skewed because Vegas knows the public would be on Philly, but my math system has the Eagles -4.9. The only way I see Zona winning this game is if the effectively pick up the blitz and the corners get beat in one on one coverage. I like Philly as a 2*.

Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore-No Play
I think that Pitt gets the win in this game but I think the line is inflated so I am staying away. Baltimore won their last two games being fortunate on turnovers, and this can’t continue forever. It’s hard for me to see a rookie QB (who hasn’t been playing good this postseason) getting a win in Pitt. Both defenses are great. Pitt allows 3.3 YPR and 5.4 YPPA (both first in NFL this postseason). Baltimore only allows 3.6 YPR and 5.9 YPPA. Baltimore’s running game is better than Pitt’s (4 YPR vs 3.7 YPR). Their passing games are the same averaging 7.1 YPPA. My Super System has the line at Pitt -3.1, so it is inflated. I think this is going to be a tight game.

[10DimeBry]

GL i like philly tomorrow as well

[roccodean]

thanks dimer

[ravenmaniac]

Hey Rocco, Just curious. If your system has the line at 3.1 and you think it is going to be a tight game isn't Baltimore +6 the obvious play?.

[ThatKirkBoy]

Good luck Rocco...

One small correction (if anyone cares): Jim Johnson is the Def. Cord. for Philly. Jim Jones was the cult leader in Guyana who wanted you to drink the kool-aid.

[roccodean]

Raven, my math system is only statistically significant if the line differs by 4.5. I have been analyzing it over the last few years and this seems to be the cutoff. Im not sure if it should be different in the playoffs, I need a couple more years of stats. Last year it was 65%, this year it was 57%. It predicts what the line should be strictly on stats, obviously the oddsmakers take a lot of other things into account (particularly public perception). I think it is a similar system that vegas uses because in the playoffs it is usually right on the money, so there aren't too many plays. Last year in the playoffs it was 1-0 and this year it was 1-0. That being said, I think the line is high in the Pitt game.

[Spark]

Good Luck rocco

[roccodean]

lol..thanks kirk

[MarkLemke]

Good luck Rocco...

One small correction (if anyone cares): Jim Johnson is the Def. Cord. for Philly. Jim Jones was the cult leader in Guyana who wanted you to drink the kool-aid.

best of luck rocco...i'm still on the fence...

[roccodean]

best of luck rocco...i'm still on the fence...

i loved philly earlier in the week but am starting to get a little worried so downgraded them to 2*

[MarkLemke]

i loved philly earlier in the week but am starting to get a little worried so downgraded them to 2*

i loved zona earlier in the week and am now starting to think warner will be on his old ass most of the day...