NFL Sunday---Big Play

[griswold]

NFL YTD 25-28 -3.75 units
4* GOY 1-0 +4.0 units
3* 1-0 +3.0 units
2* 3-5 -5.2 unirs
1* 20-23 -5.55 units

NFL/CFB Combined 65-58 +5.95 units
4* GOY 2-1 +3.6 units
3* 2-2 -0.6 units
2* 13-9 +6.0 units
1* 48-46 -3.05 units

I lost my only NFL post-season game Saturday on the Titans who had a 21-9 first down edge and a 391-211 yardage edge but somehow lost to the Ravens.

3* Steelers -5 1/2
The Ravens have won two playoff games because of a massive turnover edge. They were totally outplayed by a Titans team that lost its star RB. If they don't have a positive turnover margin against Pittsburgh, they will get killed. Baltimore has no offense and Flacco hasn't completed more than 50 percent of his passes in either game. Pittsburgh's offense is on a roll right now to match the defense. Willie Parker is healthy. The Pittsburgh pass rush should be enough to force Flacco to throw. Baltimore was badly beaten up in the brutal game with Tennessee and now has to face another tough physical team. I expect a win by about 17 here.

(This line has moved up since its open and may not go any higher than 6 1/2; but I'd play it now because I don't see it going lower.)

[BigWeiner]

I agree

[jcindaville]

Its going to get nasty what Pittsburgh does to the Ravens. Steelers will steam roll them

Love the call, it was exactly what i was thinking.

[ravenmaniac]

I have to laugh at your logic. Since when is it unfair or illegal to win playoff games because of a large turnover margin. Who do you think caused the turnovers. To me the sign of a really good team is being able to win when all parts of your game isn't working at peak efficiency. You don't win 13 games in the NFL with smoke and mirrors. I don't know how you can assume Pittsburgh is going to kill Baltimore with or without turnovers. They have already played twice and Pittsburgh hasn't killed them yet. The first game was Flacco's 3rd game as a pro and first road game and the Steelers had to overcome a 13 point half time deficit to barely win in OT. The second game Pittsburgh did nothing the whole game until Rothlisberger scored a controversial TD on the last drive of the game to squeak out a win by 4 points. As for Willie Parker being healthy who cares. Check his career stats against the Ravens when he is healthy. The guy has never come close to gaining 100 yards.

All year critics have been taking cheap shots at the Ravens. First they said the Ravens wouldn't win 6 games. Next it was wait until they play some of the NFC east teams like Philly and Washington. Then it was Dallas will kill them in the last game to be played at Texas stadium. Then it was Miami and Chad Pennington, who never turns the ball over, will beat them in the wild card game. Next it was the almighty Titans, who bitch slapped the Steelers a month ago, who were going to knock the Ravens out of the playoffs, but guess who is still standing. All of this was done with a rookie head coach and rookie QB. Why not at least give credit were credit is due.

Good luck on your Steelers play, you may need it.

[DBURGH]

I have to laugh at your logic. Since when is it unfair or illegal to win playoff games because of a large turnover margin. Who do you think caused the turnovers. To me the sign of a really good team is being able to win when all parts of your game isn't working at peak efficiency. You don't win 13 games in the NFL with smoke and mirrors. I don't know how you can assume Pittsburgh is going to kill Baltimore with or without turnovers. They have already played twice and Pittsburgh hasn't killed them yet. The first game was Flacco's 3rd game as a pro and first road game and the Steelers had to overcome a 13 point half time deficit to barely win in OT. The second game Pittsburgh did nothing the whole game until Rothlisberger scored a controversial TD on the last drive of the game to squeak out a win by 4 points. As for Willie Parker being healthy who cares. Check his career stats against the Ravens when he is healthy. The guy has never come close to gaining 100 yards.

All year critics have been taking cheap shots at the Ravens. First they said the Ravens wouldn't win 6 games. Next it was wait until they play some of the NFC east teams like Philly and Washington. Then it was Dallas will kill them in the last game to be played at Texas stadium. Then it was Miami and Chad Pennington, who never turns the ball over, will beat them in the wild card game. Next it was the almighty Titans, who bitch slapped the Steelers a month ago, who were going to knock the Ravens out of the playoffs, but guess who is still standing. All of this was done with a rookie head coach and rookie QB. Why not at least give credit were credit is due.

Good luck on your Steelers play, you may need it.

As a true Pittsburgh Fan and one who doesn't look at them through black and gold glasses. The Ravens will give the Steelers problems, they always do..we will not run the ball and first downs will be at a premium.....The Titans handled us in the regular season, and one reason, they were fighting different battles that day...the Titans wanted respect, the Steelers were hoping not to play the Ravens in the first round. We got our wish and now that game really doesn't matter from a month ago. Good Luck Gris,, I really really hope you are correct....my heart can't take another overtime or last minute drive game against the RAvens..

[aplous]

I have to laugh at your logic. Since when is it unfair or illegal to win playoff games because of a large turnover margin.

When did anyone say that it was unfair or illegal to win b/c of turnovers?

Fact is, if Tennessee doesnt turn it over 5 times they win. Flacco has done zip this postseason.


This is a gambling board, not a Ravens or Steelers fan board. We know that you are rooting Baltimore on Sunday.

[griswold]

When did I say it was unfair or illegal to win because of turnovers.

Turnovers decide almost all games.

All four losers this past weekend had the most turnovers.

My point is that turnovers are often unpredictable and have a disparate impact on games. Offensive stats are a truer measure of how a team played on each play throughout the game.

if the turnovers were even, tennessee would have won.

If the turnovers are even Pittsburgh will win big. That's my opinion and I'll win or lose a lot of money on it

[aces r wild]

GL with you play Gris.
Turnovers are the reason that Balt. and Ariz are where they are today. Both +7 in the playoffs. Baltimore did lead the league this year in takeaways with 34.
The 2 games between Balt. and Pitt. the turnovers have been even 3 a piece.
Both games have basically been played even as well.

[roccodean]

The team that wins the turnover battle wins the game 91% of the time in the NFL since 1992. There have been studies looking at turnovers and it has shown that turnovers are 75% independent (i.e., luck). Interceptions follow a trend from QB to QB, but fumbles are random occurences and cannot be perdicted. Thats why even the best bet only has about a 70% chance of winning, bc of turnovers.

[lokio_3]

god hear u gris
lol
think the game will be close
GOOD LUCK

[griswold]

Huge Shot At A Super Bowl Middle

B o o k m a k e r just opened line at Pittsburgh -6 1/2.

Many other offshores have -7.

I just played Ariz +7 1/2 (-120) at one offshore and Pittsburgh -6 (-120) at another.

I'm risking the juice to nail both sides if the game lands on 7 and win one side and push the other if Pitt wins by 6.

[jcindaville]

well done gris