Raven Up, and Go Low with NY / Philly .... NFL Week 19

[CoverBoy]

Playing the NFL Divisional Games


Notes:

Next season I'll make changes in the format which should increase our overall football winning percentage and by playing to my strengths ,the net net will be even higher than in the past.

Next week, I'll explain further.








Saturday 1/10/09

Baltimore at Tennessee … Each week The Ravens are looking more and more like the same 2000 Ravens who, with an unsung QB, rolled through Denver , Tennessee and Oakland on their way to kicking the crap out of Kerry Collins and The Giants in The Superbowl. They gave up 23 total points in those 4 games. Last week they hoodwinked Poor Unsuspecting Chad Pennington until he was beaten silly. I see no reason why they can't once again brutalize Collins and defeat Tennessee on Saturday.

Now Tennessee will fight … they have one of the top coaches in the league, but John Harbaugh is a serious man , a man of respect, with a defense that's awfully difficult to negotiate.

I like Baltimore for the Superbowl this year and Joe Flacco is one the League's QB's for the future.


Take Baltimore , getting 3 , to defeat Tennessee … A Top Play


Conflicting signals on the O/U , so pass the total.






Arizona at Carolina … My work shows The Over , but not enough for a Top Play … make it a Regular.


As far as the side goes … I have a 14-0 ATS System ( by 13 ppg ) on The Cardinals , but I also have a few very good ones supporting Carolina as well.

And John Fox is clearly superior to Ken Whisenhunt

If in doubt , take the points , especially this deep into the season and at this level of competition … but only if you must have action.

As for me, I'm passing the side … I have no decided edges.








Sunday 1/11/09


Philadelphia at NY Giants


A Top Play on The Under

The Side: The Superbowl Giants at - 4 at home … Line looks pretty cockeyed , flip flop it and The Eagles would be -2 ½ to - 3 in Philly and that's pretty darn strong. Giants were -7 late in the season when Philly came in and totally shut them down



Linemaker Games are 10-2 for us this season and I'm tempted to make this a Linemaker Game for Philly, but I'll pass . Philly has been a sharp stick in my eye all year long. ( I know Big Mike will laugh at that )


If you must , play Philly because of the line.

I'm sticking with the totals play , and no side.





San Diego at Pittsburgh …


Over the years , The Chargers have been the Darlings of the post season for us. But that alone will not help us out in this game

Yes I'll take the points here (be sure to get +7 ... if you absolutely can not , try like hell for 6 1/2 ... this makes you bullet proof in OT ) but only for a Regular Play. San Diego has enough talent to play with The Steelers . I don't think D. Sproles will drive Pitt as crazy as he did The Colts , but he will contribute enough to keep the ball in San Diego's possession at critical times , and I love underdogs who have a good ground game.


Nothing on the total.



As Always ,

Best of Luck,

-Neil

[BillMill71]

Thanks CB and good luck

[aces r wild]

Like'em all. GL this weekend CB and Thanks for posting!

[flarendep1]

GL CB!

Glad you have so much confidencs in my Ravens!

[zeib10]

Thanks for posting CBoy.

[BigWeiner]

With you on San Diego, good luck

[casheasy]

I am surprised you only went "regular" on the Chargers, but I shouldn't be. You have a knack for showing restraint in the playoffs, and that serves one well year after year.

My work also shows the over in the Arizona/Carolina game. However, Bill Carollo is the referee, and his games this year always go under. I think out of his last 10 games this season, the only ones to go over were the Detroit vs TB game, where there were THREE defensive TDs scored, and maybe one push. That's it!!!! Just a thought.

Good luck Neil.

[ThatKirkBoy]

Realizing that you aren't getting paid to teach me how to do this - I would sincerely appreciate you defining what "linemaker play" means exactly. I like that phrase and it seems to be a big player in many of your recent posts. I just don't know what it means in relation to the line itself. Thank you in advance.

[NEJAKE]

good luck and thanks CB!!!!!!!

[PW52]

Good luck neil and thanks as always. that 14-0 system on arizona scares me a bit.

[CoverBoy]

Realizing that you aren't getting paid to teach me how to do this - I would sincerely appreciate you defining what "linemaker play" means exactly. I like that phrase and it seems to be a big player in many of your recent posts. I just don't know what it means in relation to the line itself. Thank you in advance.

Kirk ... It's kind of hard to describe but I'll do my best ...

It's the feeling I get about certain game where the line is much different from my own line on that game , based on doing this for the last 35 years.

The entire premise for Linesmaker Games is enormous respect for the man who makes the numbers for each game. To me he is by far the best handicapper in the world. And he is paid extremely well. Contrary to what most people think his job is NOT to make a number which will draw equal action for both sides of a game so his people make only the 10% Vig. It's far more subtle and sneaky and brilliant than that. Don't you think the big shots are looking for much more than just vig ? Of course they are ... they are not dummies. "Why settle for 10% when we can draw in 25 % ??? " So let's face it, they want the majority of people to bet the wrong sides.


This being said ....

Early Sunday evenings I look at the schedule for the following week and mark down what I think the lines will be. I hit most of them on the button but the ones I miss become candidates for Linemaker Plays. These are games which really shock me when the actual lines are posted. Then I start thinking and look for reasons to play the team that he does not want most people to play ... most times it's the team which takes balls to play. And this season 10 times out of 12 I made the correct choice , thanks to him. And I passed those games on to you in the NFL Report.

Here's an exaggerated example: San Diego is at Pittsburgh tomorrow and -6 seems like a reasonable number , in Pittsburgh. The Steelers would be Pk'em in San Diego , same as The Colts were last week .. OK I can live with that ... it seems right.

But what if the opening line were Steelers - 10 1/2 ? at home ? ... They would be -4 in San Diego and that's pretty strong , considering The Colts/Chargers were pk. and San Diego defeated them. ... I'd look to play Pittsburgh out of respect for The linesmaker . ( assuming that the systems in my database are neutral for both teams ) ... The Lines man is telling me that San Diego will be flat for the game and The Steelers will be rip roaring ready to go !!!

How does The Linesmaker know this ? Good question !!! I don't know . I wish I knew but I don't.


But he knows !!!!


The important thing is that he's telling me something about this game ... and I in turn pass it on to you.


Here's the other extreme ... what if that same game opened up at Pk 'em in Pittsburgh ... Well then I'd seriously consider The Chargers who would be -6 1/2 in San Diego.


Kirk it's a little more complicated than what I'm describing but that's the jist of it ... a lot of it is gut feeling and experience.


(I keep thinking about the one I got wrong this season ... Miami / Buffalo in Toronto , week 14 ... The Bills were -1 , having lost 5 of their last 6 vs. a streaking Miami team. The line looked so wacky I had to play Buffalo . I was wrong. I am sure most people played Miami that day and they won. The sportsbooks lost money on that game. The Linesmaker thought Buffalo would win ... I am sure of that. Damn ... shit happens sometimes ... lol )


Best of Luck

Neil

[Alafan]

bump gl

[LeRoy]

Nice call on Balt CB GL today

[mavskidd02]

best of luck to you Neil and thanks

[MarcD312]

Thanks for the details in all of your write ups.It helps alot.Appreciate all your HARD work!!