Tweet
Pretty much everyone probably has their mind made up on this one but here's my analysis anyway I hope it helps a little. I would have to say from the day this game was set the general consensus went from about 50-50 to 60-40 florida. And for a while I fully understood why and I can still see it:
-First and foremost the fiercest competitor in college football Tim Tebow is going to be absolutely fired up after he had to sit next to the sophomore Bradford in New York and watch him win the heisman. Add on the bulletin board material from Franks that Tebow is not even top 3 QB in the country and I expect a fiery veteran performance from Tebow.
-SEC, SEC, SEC - Just IMO a different brand of football this year, they have outclassed pretty much everybody and the Ole Miss game is a great example, but still Florida's schedule begs to differ a little bit. (more on that later)
Defense Wins Championships - I don't think there is any doubt that Florida has the better defense but from looking at the numbers I have to ask by how much? Here's Flordia's games:
8/30 Hawaii W 56-10
9/06 Miami W 26-3
9/20 @ Tennessee W 30-6
9/27 Mississippi L 31-30
10/04 @ Arkansas W 38-7
10/11 No. 4 LSU 5-1 W 51-21
10/25 Kentucky 6-1 W 63-5
11/01 vs. No. 6 Georgia 7-1 W 49-10
11/08 @ Vanderbilt 8-1 W 42-14
11/15 No. 25 South Carolina 9-1 W 56-6
11/22 Citadel 10-1 W 70-19
11/29 @ No. 20 Florida State W 45-15
12/06 vs. No. 1 Alabama W 31-20
How many of these wins are really impressive? Bama is a great win obviously but as we found out all year their offense was not too potent. Other than that nothing stands out to me as Georgia struggled against Mich State and was not too impressive all year. The LSU win was well before LSU showed their improvement. Florida State is semi-impressive especially because it was late and they played the whole 2nd half without Percy.
Oklahoma played a tougher schedule even in a conference without much defense. Still, Oklahoma's D showed it was able to get some stops against teams with great offenses. Is Oklahoma more motivated from hearing how bad their D is and their losing bowl streak? Probably. Also add in the fact that Okalahoma has significantly more senior contribution and it makes them that much more appealing.
Bottom line, tough game. I will be surprised if this one ends in a rout. This crazy long layoff will affect the offenses early, I see the scoring starting slow before picking up a little bit. However I see Florida in the 31-35 and Oklahoma in the 28-34 range. What combination of that I don't know what I do know is that together those will add up to an under. My numbers show it pretty close percentage wise on the total but you know the public loves to play overs in games like this. Plus the over is down from the open number and is as low as 69 some places, seems to ask for over money. That's where I think vegas will win tonight.
I think these look good:
Under 70
Oklahoma +11 under 76 (6 point teaser)
I would lean to Florida straight but wouldn't be shocked to see OK win this game but Stoops's track record scares me a bit.
GL to all tonight and I hope this helps a bit.
-First and foremost the fiercest competitor in college football Tim Tebow is going to be absolutely fired up after he had to sit next to the sophomore Bradford in New York and watch him win the heisman. Add on the bulletin board material from Franks that Tebow is not even top 3 QB in the country and I expect a fiery veteran performance from Tebow.
-SEC, SEC, SEC - Just IMO a different brand of football this year, they have outclassed pretty much everybody and the Ole Miss game is a great example, but still Florida's schedule begs to differ a little bit. (more on that later)
Defense Wins Championships - I don't think there is any doubt that Florida has the better defense but from looking at the numbers I have to ask by how much? Here's Flordia's games:
8/30 Hawaii W 56-10
9/06 Miami W 26-3
9/20 @ Tennessee W 30-6
9/27 Mississippi L 31-30
10/04 @ Arkansas W 38-7
10/11 No. 4 LSU 5-1 W 51-21
10/25 Kentucky 6-1 W 63-5
11/01 vs. No. 6 Georgia 7-1 W 49-10
11/08 @ Vanderbilt 8-1 W 42-14
11/15 No. 25 South Carolina 9-1 W 56-6
11/22 Citadel 10-1 W 70-19
11/29 @ No. 20 Florida State W 45-15
12/06 vs. No. 1 Alabama W 31-20
How many of these wins are really impressive? Bama is a great win obviously but as we found out all year their offense was not too potent. Other than that nothing stands out to me as Georgia struggled against Mich State and was not too impressive all year. The LSU win was well before LSU showed their improvement. Florida State is semi-impressive especially because it was late and they played the whole 2nd half without Percy.
Oklahoma played a tougher schedule even in a conference without much defense. Still, Oklahoma's D showed it was able to get some stops against teams with great offenses. Is Oklahoma more motivated from hearing how bad their D is and their losing bowl streak? Probably. Also add in the fact that Okalahoma has significantly more senior contribution and it makes them that much more appealing.
Bottom line, tough game. I will be surprised if this one ends in a rout. This crazy long layoff will affect the offenses early, I see the scoring starting slow before picking up a little bit. However I see Florida in the 31-35 and Oklahoma in the 28-34 range. What combination of that I don't know what I do know is that together those will add up to an under. My numbers show it pretty close percentage wise on the total but you know the public loves to play overs in games like this. Plus the over is down from the open number and is as low as 69 some places, seems to ask for over money. That's where I think vegas will win tonight.
I think these look good:
Under 70
Oklahoma +11 under 76 (6 point teaser)
I would lean to Florida straight but wouldn't be shocked to see OK win this game but Stoops's track record scares me a bit.
GL to all tonight and I hope this helps a bit.
to the forum!!!
NBA is a joke
Comment