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Here's my analysis on all the games this weekend. Good luck to whoever you take!
1*: .66 to .75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
2* Ten -2.5 over Balt (-130, bought half point)
Tennessee has the better defense, better offense, and more experienced QB in this matchup making them a 2* play. Baltimore is coming off a win at Miami, but they forced five turnovers and that won't be the case this week because Tennessee protects the ball well (17 giveaways, 2nd during the regular season). Baltimore will not benefit from defensive touchdowns and will therefore have to rely on their offense, which is not impressive. They average 4 YPR (21st during regular season) and 7.1 YPPA (14th during regular season). Flacco does not impress me! There have only been 3 (out of 8) rookie QB's (Flacco, Roethlisberger, Shaun King) to win a playoff game. Neither Roethlisberger or King won their second game and Big Ben got blown out 41-27 at NE. Flacco's numbers this year are not impressive with only 14 TD's and 12 INT's for a rating of 80.3. Even against a mediocre Miami D he only managed 9-23 passing for 135 yards. We know that Balt’s D is good allowing 3.7 YPR and 5.9 YPPA. I think Tennessee’s D is better; they allow 3.7 YPR and 6 YPPA and more importantly they average 3 sacks/game. They will put pressure on Flacco and cause him to throw picks. The Titans offense is better than Balt’s averaging 4.3 YPR and 6.7 YPPA. They protect Collins allowing only 0.8 sacks/game, and Collins has proven that he can do more than manage games this year. Baltimore is 2-5 against playoff teams this year and when playing good teams they struggle (scoring 10 against NYG, 10 and 9 against Pitt, 3 against Indy).
Tenn was 4-1 against playoff teams and their only loss was in week 17 against Indy where they rested most of their starters. These two teams faced off in week and Tenn won 13-10 and it was a very even game. Tennessee is expected to get Haynesworth back this week, which will be a boost to stop Balt’s run offense. The line is close; my math system has the Titans –3.5. Tennessee wins in a low scoring battle.
1* 7 point tease
I rarely tease (usually once or twice a year), but I like this one.
Carolina -2.5
The Cardinals struggle on the road and have been outscored 23-31 away this season and getting blown out several times. They will probably have a tough time scoring this week especially if weather is a factor. Carolina’s run D is not that strong (4.4 YPR, 23rd), but their pass D allows only 6.5 YPR (7th) which will be able to slow down Arizona’s main source of offense. Arizona cannot run the ball (3.5 YPR,31st), but their pass offense is strong throwing for 7.7 YPPA (6th). Carolina should be able to move the ball on Zona. They average 4.8 YPR (2nd) and 7.9 YPPA (4th) and will face a Zona D that allows 4 YPR and 7.2 YPPA. Carolina is undefeated at home and have won 29-14 at home this season. My Super System has the line at 8.8. These teams faced week 8 and Arizona played well gaining 425 total yards versus Carolina’s 350. Carolina was able to stop the run giving up only 50 yards, but the allowed Warner to throw for 375 yards. Carolina’s D has improved since then and I expect them to stop the pass better especially if it is snowy. Carolina will control the run game and the clock and get the win at home.
PITT +1
I don't see Diego being able to score on the Steelers D. Pitt’s D is top in the league against the pass and the run. Offensively, they are poor running the ball (3.7 YPR) and their pass offense is average (7.1 YPPA). The Chargers defense is average (4 YPR, 6.8 YPPA) but have been playing better lately. Rivers had a great year, but the Chargers run game averages only 4 YPR and without LT (listed as doubtful) this will struggle. Sproles had a good game last week, but he wasn’t facing this brutal Steelers D. Rivers only threw for 164 yards with 2 picks when they played week 11. Although they only won 11-10, they dominated the game outgaining the Chargers by 200 yards and controlling the clock (36 vs. 24 minutes).
NYG -4 vs. Philly-No Opinion
This game is too tough to call. My Super System has the line as the Giants –4. Philly’s defense is superior to the Giants allowing 3.5 YPR and 6.1 YPPA, while NY allows 4 YPR and 6.8 YPPA. On the other side of the ball, the Giants are better. NY was first in the league averaging 5 YPR, and they also averaged 6.8 YPPA. Philly averages only 4 YPR and 6.7 YPPA. The Eagles will be bringing the heat and average 3 sacks/game. The Giants have played well at home this year going 7-1. I think that the Giants are slightly the better team, but the Eagles are hot and I can see them pulling the upset here, so I’m staying away.
1*: .66 to .75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
2* Ten -2.5 over Balt (-130, bought half point)
Tennessee has the better defense, better offense, and more experienced QB in this matchup making them a 2* play. Baltimore is coming off a win at Miami, but they forced five turnovers and that won't be the case this week because Tennessee protects the ball well (17 giveaways, 2nd during the regular season). Baltimore will not benefit from defensive touchdowns and will therefore have to rely on their offense, which is not impressive. They average 4 YPR (21st during regular season) and 7.1 YPPA (14th during regular season). Flacco does not impress me! There have only been 3 (out of 8) rookie QB's (Flacco, Roethlisberger, Shaun King) to win a playoff game. Neither Roethlisberger or King won their second game and Big Ben got blown out 41-27 at NE. Flacco's numbers this year are not impressive with only 14 TD's and 12 INT's for a rating of 80.3. Even against a mediocre Miami D he only managed 9-23 passing for 135 yards. We know that Balt’s D is good allowing 3.7 YPR and 5.9 YPPA. I think Tennessee’s D is better; they allow 3.7 YPR and 6 YPPA and more importantly they average 3 sacks/game. They will put pressure on Flacco and cause him to throw picks. The Titans offense is better than Balt’s averaging 4.3 YPR and 6.7 YPPA. They protect Collins allowing only 0.8 sacks/game, and Collins has proven that he can do more than manage games this year. Baltimore is 2-5 against playoff teams this year and when playing good teams they struggle (scoring 10 against NYG, 10 and 9 against Pitt, 3 against Indy).
Tenn was 4-1 against playoff teams and their only loss was in week 17 against Indy where they rested most of their starters. These two teams faced off in week and Tenn won 13-10 and it was a very even game. Tennessee is expected to get Haynesworth back this week, which will be a boost to stop Balt’s run offense. The line is close; my math system has the Titans –3.5. Tennessee wins in a low scoring battle.
1* 7 point tease
I rarely tease (usually once or twice a year), but I like this one.
Carolina -2.5
The Cardinals struggle on the road and have been outscored 23-31 away this season and getting blown out several times. They will probably have a tough time scoring this week especially if weather is a factor. Carolina’s run D is not that strong (4.4 YPR, 23rd), but their pass D allows only 6.5 YPR (7th) which will be able to slow down Arizona’s main source of offense. Arizona cannot run the ball (3.5 YPR,31st), but their pass offense is strong throwing for 7.7 YPPA (6th). Carolina should be able to move the ball on Zona. They average 4.8 YPR (2nd) and 7.9 YPPA (4th) and will face a Zona D that allows 4 YPR and 7.2 YPPA. Carolina is undefeated at home and have won 29-14 at home this season. My Super System has the line at 8.8. These teams faced week 8 and Arizona played well gaining 425 total yards versus Carolina’s 350. Carolina was able to stop the run giving up only 50 yards, but the allowed Warner to throw for 375 yards. Carolina’s D has improved since then and I expect them to stop the pass better especially if it is snowy. Carolina will control the run game and the clock and get the win at home.
PITT +1
I don't see Diego being able to score on the Steelers D. Pitt’s D is top in the league against the pass and the run. Offensively, they are poor running the ball (3.7 YPR) and their pass offense is average (7.1 YPPA). The Chargers defense is average (4 YPR, 6.8 YPPA) but have been playing better lately. Rivers had a great year, but the Chargers run game averages only 4 YPR and without LT (listed as doubtful) this will struggle. Sproles had a good game last week, but he wasn’t facing this brutal Steelers D. Rivers only threw for 164 yards with 2 picks when they played week 11. Although they only won 11-10, they dominated the game outgaining the Chargers by 200 yards and controlling the clock (36 vs. 24 minutes).
NYG -4 vs. Philly-No Opinion
This game is too tough to call. My Super System has the line as the Giants –4. Philly’s defense is superior to the Giants allowing 3.5 YPR and 6.1 YPPA, while NY allows 4 YPR and 6.8 YPPA. On the other side of the ball, the Giants are better. NY was first in the league averaging 5 YPR, and they also averaged 6.8 YPPA. Philly averages only 4 YPR and 6.7 YPPA. The Eagles will be bringing the heat and average 3 sacks/game. The Giants have played well at home this year going 7-1. I think that the Giants are slightly the better team, but the Eagles are hot and I can see them pulling the upset here, so I’m staying away.
NBA is a joke
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