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NFL
Line Report
Divisional Playoffs
January10, 11
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NFL opening line report: Divisional round
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The days of home underdogs in the NFL playoffs are over.
All four home clubs this weekend are favored. The biggest is Carolina -10 hosting Arizona. The smallest is Tennessee laying three to Baltimore.
This is quite unlike last week’s opening round, where the four road teams opened as favorites.
“The lines will be tighter now,” Las Vegas Sports Consultants senior oddsmaker Mike Seba said about home clubs.
Seba said it’s important that bookmakers don’t allow the public to get a bargain when backing a home favorite. Bookmakers lost big on Sunday when a pair of favorites, Baltimore and Philadelphia, each covered the spread.
Seba’s number on the Philadelphia-New York matchup, for instance, was Giants -6. LVSC’s opening line recommendation to its Nevada hotel clients was Giants -5.5. The line has settled in with the Giants as 4-point favorites.
The Eagles knocked off the Giants at Giants Stadium on Dec. 7 in cold and windy conditions, 20-14. The Eagles know the Giants well.
Donovan McNabb is playing well again and Philadelphia has its confidence up after back-to-back big victories versus Dallas and Minnesota.
“The Eagles are the hot team right now,” Seba said. “People are going to play them catching +4 or +4.5.”
Seba, though, believes the Giants are the right side. The Giants may have played their worst game when they lost to the Eagles. They were distracted at the time by the Plaxico Burress shooting incident and were minus their best running back, Brandon Jacobs. He’s expected to play this time.
“You have to basically throw out that last meeting,” Seba said. “It didn’t mean much to the Giants. In my opinion, the Giants are sitting in a good spot this time having been off last week.
“People are not taking them as seriously as they should. The Giants didn’t really have a lot of motivation in their last few games. I trust Tom Coughlin. I think he’s a very good coach. He’ll have them ready. You’ll see a different Giants team.”
There could be some upper movement on the Steelers, who are laying six to San Diego. Some places, including the Las Vegas Hilton, were up to 6.5 on Monday afternoon.
“It wouldn’t be a surprise if it did go higher,” Seba said. “The Chargers are banged-up and in a bad spot. The Steelers defense is as good as we’ve seen in the last few years.”
Those betting San Diego lucked out the first time the Chargers met the Steelers on Nov. 16. The Yellow and Black failed to cover as four-point home chalk because a touchdown return off an errant lateral on the final play by Troy Polamalu was incorrectly disallowed.
The Steelers won 11-10, despite out-gaining the Chargers by 192 yards and controlling the clock for 36 minutes and 31 seconds.
The Panthers opened either 9.5 or 10 at home to Arizona. By Monday afternoon the first option had all but vanished. This line could keep climbing, especially if Cardinals star wideout Anquan Boldin can’t play because of a hamstring injury suffered on Saturday against Atlanta.
“If we knew he (Boldin) was out, we would move the line to 11,” Seba said.
Arizona has been tough at home. But the Cardinals still have yet to prove they can win consistently on the road, or against upper-tier competition. They have lost four games by at least 21 points. Their secondary gave up a staggering 36 touchdown passes, easily the most in the NFL.
The Cards did play the Panthers tough in a 27-23 road loss on Oct. 26. They lead 17-3 but failed to even cover as 4-point dogs. Kurt Warner threw for 381 yards and two touchdowns.
“Arizona is dangerous,” Seba said. “The Cardinals could steal a game if Carolina isn’t ready. The line is so high because the Cardinals are on the road, they have a bad defense and Carolina is rested.
“Carolina’s DNA is to be conservative. I can see not wanting to lay a lot of points with the Panthers, especially with Arizona being able to score at any time.”
The most competitively-priced game is Baltimore-Tennessee. It also has the lowest total at 35. Seba said he rates the Ravens and Titans nearly even. The line is a field goal because the Titans are rested and have home field.
“I can’t imagine it coming off three,” Seba said about the betting line on the game.
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