Ball St / Tulsa - just my brain wandering

[FRITO]

I'm fuckin tired today, i just want to relax and watch a football game.

I know that Ball St hasn't played the toughest schedule - not even close.
But teams like Navy (at 8-5) they beat by 12 pts. So they can apparently handle the run.
The Ball St defense allowing only (18.6 pts avg) tells me that they have pride in their defense.

[note:]
I know it doesn't mean much, but we just saw what a good defense can do last night.

It might be silly, but a game that stood out to me was against Indiana. Yah, i know they suck.
But in the Big 10 there isn't 1 team that doesn't have some big fuckin monsters for their linemen.
Ball St pounded those big fuckin monsters into the ground & embarrassed them in Indy (42-20)

The recent talk about line movement has my brain banging even harder on this game.

EVERYBODY knows that Tulsa is a scoring machine (avg 47.4 pts) they run good & pass good.
Sense EVERYBODY knows that (including the books), why the fuck did Ball St open as a fav (-2.5)?
Those fkn books aren't going to just sit and watch EVERYBODY just hammer away on Tulsa are they?
(that line has done a fuckin [5.5 actually 6 pt flip-flop] with floods of money coming in on Tulsa)
I have to believe that the linesmakers are smarter than we are (are they giving everyone a gift)?

I HIGHLY FUCKIN DOUBT IT -
EVERYBODY knows that Ball St played a weak schedule -
EVERYBODY knows that Tulsa is a fucking scoring machine -
Why would they give Tulsa any fkn points at all to begin with?
They just keep taking in the cash and moving the line a half point at a time.
If they are overwhelmed with the enormous amount of money coming in on Tulsa
why wouldn't they do a big move on the spread to entice some more Ball St money?
(fuck, i have no idea what i'm talking about - but it sure the fuck looks fishy) as in HOOK
SOMETHING TELLS ME THAT THEY WANTED ALL THAT TULSA MONEY

I'll take my chances (a normal bet) Ball St (+3)

good luck - it should be an exciting game

[NoCashMcgraff]

good luck frito!

[ogarza]

A lot of fuckings and fucks in that writeup...im with ya though playing Ball St small...really a coin flip to me, I decided I would take whichever team was getting pts...good luck

[NoCashMcgraff]

hey frito - here are the #s that I have for tonights game, as far as public betting % is concerned. Am I saying these #s are 100% accurate? No - but for some reason I trust it. As of now it is about 55% in favor of Ball State. Now that includes all of the action from when the line opened to now. Here is a breakdown of the line and the amount of bets on each side:

Team Wagers Line Team Wagers Line
Ball St 1655 -2.5 Tulsa 1207 +2.5
Ball st 247 -1.5 Tulsa 220 +1.5
Ball St 187 pk Tulsa 161 pk
Ball St 15 +2 Tulsa 17 -2
Ball St 192 +2.5 Tulsa 217 -2.5
Ball St 84 +3 Tulsa 95 -3

Total Wagers for each team
Ball State:2380
Tulsa:1917

now obviously this isn't every single bet from every single book across the country but it is a decent sample size. Just thought I would share some of the information that I use. Good luck tonight!

[CMDawg]

hey frito - here are the #s that I have for tonights game, as far as public betting % is concerned. Am I saying these #s are 100% accurate? No - but for some reason I trust it. As of now it is about 55% in favor of Ball State. Now that includes all of the action from when the line opened to now. Here is a breakdown of the line and the amount of bets on each side:

Team Wagers Line Team Wagers Line
Ball St 1655 -2.5 Tulsa 1207 +2.5
Ball st 247 -1.5 Tulsa 220 +1.5
Ball St 187 pk Tulsa 161 pk
Ball St 15 +2 Tulsa 17 -2
Ball St 192 +2.5 Tulsa 217 -2.5
Ball St 84 +3 Tulsa 95 -3

Total Wagers for each team
Ball State:2380
Tulsa:1917

now obviously this isn't every single bet from every single book across the country but it is a decent sample size. Just thought I would share some of the information that I use. Good luck tonight!

This is close to what I have as well, but that being said - I have # of bets, not the amount of cash on each team..

[NoCashMcgraff]

sorry if I worded it wrong - but by Wagers I also mean # of wagers not a dollar amount. Good to see you have similar numbers.

[FRITO]

hey frito - here are the #s that I have for tonights game, as far as public betting % is concerned. Am I saying these #s are 100% accurate? No - but for some reason I trust it. As of now it is about 55% in favor of Ball State. Now that includes all of the action from when the line opened to now. Here is a breakdown of the line and the amount of bets on each side:

Team Wagers Line Team Wagers Line
Ball St 1655 -2.5 Tulsa 1207 +2.5
Ball st 247 -1.5 Tulsa 220 +1.5
Ball St 187 pk Tulsa 161 pk
Ball St 15 +2 Tulsa 17 -2
Ball St 192 +2.5 Tulsa 217 -2.5
Ball St 84 +3 Tulsa 95 -3

Total Wagers for each team
Ball State:2380
Tulsa:1917

now obviously this isn't every single bet from every single book across the country but it is a decent sample size. Just thought I would share some of the information that I use. Good luck tonight!

I appreciate your input - thanks man - i find those numbers interesting.
Based on what i see there, Ball St got hit more when the line came out then the line dropped.
But overall i don't think that the swing is great enough to move the line 5.5 fkn pts, so now what?
One thing it does say (i guess), they're wanting more Ball St money, meaning Tulsa got hammered.

fucking 33 years of gambling later - i'm still trying to figure these bastards out.


i saw this too -

NCAAF PUBLIC MONEY

Tulsa - (last 30 days) $935,500

Ball State - (last 30 days) $1,159,800

But i don't believe a couple hundred thousand will move a line 6 fuckin points.
Unless of course Tulsa is getting pounded behind the scenes and they want to balance it out.

looks like i could possibly get fucked AGAIN thinking the wrong way
(but I won't go broke - i'm riding it out) Ball St can play ball

good luck !

[FRITO]

I'm going to get a new tattoo today - (across my fuckin forehead)

it'll look like this - STUPID

[Chado1]

Hey Frito man I just wanted to point out a few things that I have learned over the years in reference to what you may not be aware of. The public percentage numbers can be found on a few websites. They indicate how much money is coming in on one side of the point spread. Now this should only be used as a guideline or for just one of many capping tools because the public is right some of the time too. The one thing I have learned is that you typically dont want to be on the same side of a public backed "UNDERDOG". The public typically likes favorites and overs and if for whatever reason they like like a dog it loses even more than when they are on a stadard public backed favorite (but once again they can be right sometimes too just loses more than they are right as a percentage). Now one thing that I can tell you are definately unaware of is a thing called "reverse line movement". An example of this was last night. The public was on Ball St. The line opened at -3 and the line closed with Tulsa being the favorite of -3. That is a 6 point reverse line movement. Now you may ask why does this occur? The books are shifting the line even with the public on it knowing that they personally feel that Tulsa is going to cover and are trying to attract even more public action on Ball St at an even more favoriable line so that the public loses even more than how much they are already on it!! You seem to be confused with reverse line movement your interpretation seems to be opposite of why this actually happens. Moving the line in favor of the team who is not backed by the public is not because the public is betting them and moving the line. Same thing happened with OSU the other night opening at -10.5 reverse line movement close at -8, -9 as public was all over TEX and they were trying to attract even more TEX action at an even more favorable line. Another example I can give you is when you were saying the books needed Atlanta over Arizona in NFL on Saturday. Even though the line moved towards ARZ the public was on ATL. They actually needed ARZ to cover because ATL was a public play. The line movement had nothing to do with who they needed. It was not being moved because as you thought someone was hammering ARZ infact it was the opposite they were moving the line to attract even more ATL public backed bait!! Make sense? Anyway enough of my rambling hopefully this gives you a better perspective. Line movments should always be compared with public percentages. If one is not compared with the other than it really holds no bearing at all as a capping tool. Not bashing at all this is what I have learned and also just trying to give you my opinion and help you out with some info. Good luck!

[ThatKirkBoy]

THAT is why I love this site so much. Great information - albeit somewhat confusing to my simple mind.....

Thank you very much for the explanation.

[ThatKirkBoy]

One last question Chado: When does it technically become a "reverse line movement" scenario? The moment the line changes toward the other side (-3 changing to -2.5)? or the moment the other team becomes the favorite (-3 changing to +1)? This may sound like a dumb question (and it may in fact be) but in a typical week, the line might adjust a 1/2 point or so based on the volume of money coming in on one side...correct?

[Chado1]

One last question Chado: When does it technically become a "reverse line movement" scenario? The moment the line changes toward the other side (-3 changing to -2.5)? or the moment the other team becomes the favorite (-3 changing to +1)? This may sound like a dumb question (and it may in fact be) but in a typical week, the line might adjust a 1/2 point or so based on the volume of money coming in on one side...correct?

Who ever becomes the favorite does not necesarily define reverse line movement. It is simply defined as:

TEAM A +6 (35% of public action)

TEAM B -6 (65% of public action)

Oddmakers move the line on the public backed team down to:

TEAM B -4 even though the public is on them to bait even more action at an even better line for the public to lick their chops over....

Like I said though this doesnt always pay off or we would all be millionaires this should just be one of many capping tools. Good luck!!!

[FRITO]

Hey Frito man I just wanted to point out a few things that I have learned over the years in reference to what you may not be aware of. The public percentage numbers can be found on a few websites. They indicate how much money is coming in on one side of the point spread. Now this should only be used as a guideline or for just one of many capping tools because the public is right some of the time too. The one thing I have learned is that you typically dont want to be on the same side of a public backed "UNDERDOG". The public typically likes favorites and overs and if for whatever reason they like like a dog it loses even more than when they are on a stadard public backed favorite (but once again they can be right sometimes too just loses more than they are right as a percentage). Now one thing that I can tell you are definately unaware of is a thing called "reverse line movement". An example of this was last night. The public was on Ball St. The line opened at -3 and the line closed with Tulsa being the favorite of -3. That is a 6 point reverse line movement. Now you may ask why does this occur? The books are shifting the line even with the public on it knowing that they personally feel that Tulsa is going to cover and are trying to attract even more public action on Ball St at an even more favoriable line so that the public loses even more than how much they are already on it!! You seem to be confused with reverse line movement your interpretation seems to be opposite of why this actually happens. Moving the line in favor of the team who is not backed by the public is not because the public is betting them and moving the line. Same thing happened with OSU the other night opening at -10.5 reverse line movement close at -8, -9 as public was all over TEX and they were trying to attract even more TEX action at an even more favorable line. Another example I can give you is when you were saying the books needed Atlanta over Arizona in NFL on Saturday. Even though the line moved towards ARZ the public was on ATL. They actually needed ARZ to cover because ATL was a public play. The line movement had nothing to do with who they needed. It was not being moved because as you thought someone was hammering ARZ infact it was the opposite they were moving the line to attract even more ATL public backed bait!! Make sense? Anyway enough of my rambling hopefully this gives you a better perspective. Line movments should always be compared with public percentages. If one is not compared with the other than it really holds no bearing at all as a capping tool. Not bashing at all this is what I have learned and also just trying to give you my opinion and help you out with some info. Good luck!

I actually do and did know all of that for many years, i just
allowed myself to be a dumbfuck degenerate having brain farts.
I knew all along that something just wasn't right but didn't care.
I got to relaxed and STUPID because i was up pretty fuckin good.
Being an idiot and losing a couple normal wager games isn't gonna kill me.

I do appreciate your time and effort in posting the info though.
That's what i would really like to see more of around here - thanks!

[Chado1]

From what I have been told the most profitable form of reverse line movement is when this occurs on a PUBLIC BACKED UNDERDG:

TEAM A +6 (65% of public action)

TEAM B -6 (35% of public action)

Oddmakers increase the line even though the public is on the dog:

TEAM B -9 even though the public is on the dog they are trying to bait even more public backed dog action at an even better line for the public to lick their chops over....

[Chado1]

I actually do and did know all of that for many years, i just
allowed myself to be a dumbfuck degenerate having brain farts.
I knew all along that something just wasn't right but didn't care.
I got to relaxed and STUPID because i was up pretty fuckin good.
Being an idiot and losing a couple normal wager games isn't gonna kill me.

I do appreciate your time and effort in posting the info though.
That's what i would really like to see more of around here - thanks!

No worries at like I said was just trying to to point out for you that line movments should always be compared with public percentages. If one is not compared with the other than it really holds no bearing at all as a capping tool IMO...GL!!!