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**lokio_3** · 01-05-2009, 02:14 PM

gl FRITO

**jt4545** · 01-05-2009, 03:22 PM

gl tonight

**NoCashMcgraff** · 01-05-2009, 03:59 PM

If you think the majority of the public is on osu you are sadly mistaken. Close to 70% of the action is on Texas. More importantly with that being said the line has dropped close to 2 pts, reverse line movement. Edge osu. But that is just my opinion. Good luck none the less.

**flarendep1** · 01-05-2009, 03:59 PM

Good write up Frito, GL!

**flashypants** · 01-05-2009, 04:11 PM

gl im on texas as a good pick but just a quick note that underdogs have been winning out right in these bowls

**Kaptain** · 01-05-2009, 05:40 PM

Frito----here's an article I just got through reading, hope you don't mind, I'll insert it here.....GL to ya my man....keep em coming...

By ANDREW BAGNATO
AP College Football Writer

GLENDALE, Ariz. (AP) - Texas coach Mack Brown has a theory about bowl games.

"If the teams are fairly even, the team that wants to be there the most and has the edge and is more motivated usually wins," Brown said.

If third-ranked Texas had a choice, it would be in Miami preparing to face Florida for the BCS title. But the Longhorns still have plenty of motivation against No. 10 Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl on Monday night.

Snubbed in their bid for a slot in the Bowl Championship Series title game, the Longhorns (11-1) will try to take their frustrations out on the Buckeyes (10-2), who have made their fifth bowl trip to Arizona since 2002.

"Really, what's going through our minds is, 'Let's just put on a show, basically,'" Texas defensive end Brian Orakpo said.

The Longhorns finished in a three-way tie atop the rugged Big 12 South and thought their 10-point victory over Oklahoma should have put them in the Big 12 title game. But Oklahoma was declared the division winner on a BCS standings tiebreaker, and the Sooners ripped Missouri in the Big 12 playoff to earn a trip to the national title game.

The Longhorns still have a shot at a national title, but it's slender.

Either Oklahoma or Florida will claim the BCS national title. But the 65 pollsters who vote in The Associated Press Top 25 are free to select the Longhorns No. 1.

Six AP voters have the Longhorns atop their ballots, and that number could swell if the top-ranked Gators lose and their 50 first-place votes go up for grabs. Some voters might choose Texas because it beat Oklahoma.

It's a long shot, but it's the only shot Texas has. The Longhorns will have no shot if they don't take care of the Buckeyes.

"I don't know what needs to happen," Texas tailback Chris Ogbonnaya said. "Right now, our focus is Ohio State and really that is all that matters. We can't talk about being in the national championship picture without having a victory against them."

The Buckeyes haven't been in the national title discussion since a 35-3 walloping at USC on Sept. 13. But the Big Ten co-champs say they have plenty of motivation, and, like Texas, it springs from a bad experience in the BCS.

After absorbing lopsided losses to Florida and LSU in the last two BCS title games, the Buckeyes have grown tired of hearing that they are a product of a soft conference and don't belong among the national elite.

"It would be nice to win that big game," linebacker James Laurinaitis said. "We will be remembered about how this game comes out. It is just a real fact."

Ohio State coach Jim Tressel brushed aside suggestions that the Buckeyes might be bored by another trip to Arizona.

"It wasn't real hard for our guys to be excited when they were named to come to the Fiesta Bowl," he said. "And then they get to know it will be against Texas, who could be the best team in the country. They wanted to go to work."

Questions about motivation aside, the Fiesta Bowl presents an interesting clash of conference styles. It pits the freewheeling Big 12, where tackling often seems optional, against the staid, conservative Big Ten.

With Heisman Trophy runner-up Colt McCoy directing the attack, the Longhorns average 43.9 points per game. That was fifth in the nation - but only third in the loony Big 12 South, where Oklahoma scores a national-best 54 points per game and Texas Tech averages 44.5 points, fourth in the country.

McCoy has completed 77.6 percent of his passes for 3,445 yards and 32 touchdowns, and he has thrown seven interceptions. McCoy, a junior who plans to return for his senior year, has also rushed for 576 yards and 10 more scores.

"McCoy is extremely good," Buckeyes defensive coordinator Jim Heacock said. "He's accurate. The ball is on target. Plus, he has a great chemistry between him and his receivers."

The Buckeyes allow 13 points per game, seventh in the nation. But last year they brought the nation's top-rated defense - conceding 10.7 points per game - into the BCS title game and watched LSU romp to a 38-24 victory.

The year before that, in another BCS title game, Florida hung 41 points on the Buckeyes on the same field where Ohio State will face Texas on Monday night.

Ohio State's best defense might be a clock-controlling offense. The Buckeyes may try to feed the Longhorns a steady diet of tailback Beanie Wells - he runs for 121 yards per game, seventh in the nation - and keep McCoy and Co. off the field. If that doesn't work, it may be another long January night for the Buckeyes.

"We've got some great backs in the Big 12, but not a big back with quick feet and capable of doing what he's doing," Texas linebacker Roddrick Muckelroy said. "You have to pin your ears back and just go. You live for games like this."

**FRITO** · 01-05-2009, 09:15 PM

Originally posted by NoCashMcgraff View Post

If you think the majority of the public is on osu you are sadly mistaken. Close to 70% of the action is on Texas. More importantly with that being said the line has dropped close to 2 pts, reverse line movement. Edge osu. But that is just my opinion. Good luck none the less.

I may have mis spoke by saying, "everybody is following the money".
I guess i could have said, "a lot of people are following the money".
(the breaks between the line movement [sometimes for days] says public betting to me)

The line kept slowly dropping for 3 fuckin weeks, that seems to show steady Ohio St bettors.
I find it hard to believe that the so-called sharps sat waiting for the line to drop to bet Ohio St.
Hell, i don't know how they operate, but i think they would've made their bets before it got to -8.

I can't tell you what the actual percentages are on who's betting what, i don't know.
I've looked at numerous different sites before that show the 'supposed' betting percentages.
They vary sometimes drastically with all their graphs and pie charts and all that other shit.
I don't know what to believe on those sites. How can they possibly know the REAL numbers?
There's millions of people betting at 100's of sportsbooks across the world, how do they know?

I would appreciate it if you would tell me a reliable source that would actually have the real %'s
(thank you! - in advance)

**FRITO** · 01-05-2009, 09:22 PM

Originally posted by Kaptain View Post

Frito----here's an article I just got through reading, hope you don't mind, I'll insert it here.....GL to ya my man....keep em coming...

By ANDREW BAGNATO
AP College Football Writer

That was a good read Kap, i like reading articles like that.
thank you !

**Kaptain** · 01-05-2009, 10:10 PM

NoCashMcgraff

Originally posted by NoCashMcgraff View Post

If you think the majority of the public is on osu you are sadly mistaken. Close to 70% of the action is on Texas. More importantly with that being said the line has dropped close to 2 pts, reverse line movement. Edge osu. But that is just my opinion. Good luck none the less.

That's a real class less statement to put in anothers thread....

And you said it so blatantly, like it was etched in stone, and you have to be right.......

If the Public, or someone, was not on OSU, how in the hell did the line drop 2........

Reverse Line movement????? give me a break, and everyone else here......

There is no one site that can give you correct % of wagers/bets by public, or smart money.....they all have different takes on it.....

You don't know, and no one else knows the correct figure, one can only use the info he gets from his source.....

But ask yourself a ROOKIE question....

Line opens OSU +10....
Line drops to OSU +8...
Wouldn't that Indicate the books need more Texas money, cause the majority were on OSU...
Or, are you naive enough to believe, the BOOKS, opened it at 10, placed wagers at 10, forcing it down to 8, so they can come back and middle the damn thing....
Oris he CORRECT, when saying the Public is on OSU, which is what my sources say also..

Oh, excuse me, almighty one has spoken, I'm wrong also....

Would be a nice gesture on your part to offer an apology to FRITO, for coming in his thread, and blatantly telling him, he is "sadly mistaken"....

The one "sadly mistaken" is you.....we don't like, or tolerate those kind of statements, there's a much kinder, professional way to disagree with a person on his say so, not just spit it out as if it's (YOUR OPINION ONLY) is GOSPEL...

we have a few of those here already, and they're not well respected.....

Try a different tactic next time, and disagree next time, with a LIL class....

**FRITO** · 01-06-2009, 12:43 PM

Out of all that bullshit that i wrote -
it seems the only part that really meant anything was this part - (below)

Originally posted by FRITO View Post

Looking at some key stats IMO, what happened when Texas played a team with a good defense?
This question just simply can't be answered because they didn't play a team with a good defense.
[edge OHIO ST]

I guess we all know now what happens when they face a good defense.

you win some - you lose some
it was a pretty exciting game though eh

**lokio_3** · 01-06-2009, 12:54 PM

gl next time frito and yeah great game

**GOLDENGREEK** · 01-06-2009, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by Kaptain View Post

That's a real class less statement to put in anothers thread....

And you said it so blatantly, like it was etched in stone, and you have to be right.......

If the Public, or someone, was not on OSU, how in the hell did the line drop 2........ Vegas does what they want with the #' s. The wanted to attract more Ohio St bettors - if you dont think Vegas plays mind games and tries to mind fuk people..or make a game look more attractive ..well then..

Reverse Line movement????? give me a break, and everyone else here...... Im not going to do it for you - If you want dont want to believe me go ahead - Reverse line movement is REAL - and a very successfull handicapping tool which hits at a nice % with the best of all sports being college hoops

There is no one site that can give you correct % of wagers/bets by public, or smart money.....they all have different takes on it..... NO... THEY ALL AGREE OR COME CLOSE -- WHETHER THOSE NUMBERS ARE REAL OF ACCURATE IS ANOTHER STORY

You don't know, and no one else knows the correct figure, one can only use the info he gets from his source.....

But ask yourself a ROOKIE question.... ( NICE JOB BELITTLING A "ROOKIE' POSTER)

Line opens OSU +10....
Line drops to OSU +8...
Wouldn't that Indicate the books need more Texas money, cause the majority were on OSU... NO - AGAIN , THEY WERE TRYING TO DRAW MORE TEXAS # -- IM LUCKY ENOUGH TO HAVE 4 BOOKIES THAT I CAN CALL FRIENDS - ALL FOUR NEEDED OHIO ST HUUUUUUUGE !!! IN FACT TWO OF THEM RUN AN ONLINE SERVICE AND THEY WERE GETTING HIT WITH TEXAS MONEY SINCE THE BOWL GAME LINES WERE RELEASED 3 WEEKS AGO -- NOW TELL ME AGAIN WHY THE LINE WENT DOWN TO 8 ?

Or, are you naive enough to believe, the BOOKS, opened it at 10, placed wagers at 10, forcing it down to 8, so they can come back and middle the damn thing ( NOPE - NOT TRYING TO MIDDLE -- THEY ( BOOKS ) WOULD HAVE GOTTEN MIDDLED !!! LAST THING IN THE WORLD THEY WOULD HAVE WANTED.... ( TRYING TO MAKE TEXAS LOOK MORE ATTRACTIVE THE THE NOVICES AND "ROOKIES"

Oris he CORRECT, when saying the Public is on OSU, which is what my sources say also..( YOUR SOURCES WERE DEAD WRONG -- AND IF YOU DONT BELIEVE ANY OF THIS AND YOU DONT CARE WHERE THE MONEY IS, WHY DID YOU ASK YOUR SOURCE ?

Oh, excuse me, almighty one has spoken ( I THOUGH THAT MY NAME YOU TAGGED ME WITH -- ARE YOU GIVING IT TO SOMEONE ELSE NOW ?, I'm wrong also....

Would be a nice gesture on your part to offer an apology to FRITO, for coming in his thread, and blatantly telling him, he is "sadly mistaken".... ( LOL -- OK FORUM POLICE)

The one "sadly mistaken" is you YOU WERE SADLY MISTAKEN IN THIS ENTIRE MIS INFORMED POST.....we don't like, or tolerate those kind of statements, there's a much kinder, professional way to disagree with a person on his say so, not just spit it out as if it's (YOUR OPINION ONLY) is GOSPEL... YOU DO IT ALL THE TIME

we have a few of those here already, and they're not well respected..... CLEAR SHOT AT ME -- SO FUK OFF

Try a different tactic next time, and disagree next time, with a LIL class....

.......

**FRITO** · 01-06-2009, 02:11 PM

Originally posted by GOLDENGREEK View Post

.......IM LUCKY ENOUGH TO HAVE 4 BOOKIES THAT I CAN CALL FRIENDS - ALL FOUR NEEDED OHIO ST HUUUUUUUGE !!! IN FACT TWO OF THEM RUN AN ONLINE SERVICE AND THEY WERE GETTING HIT WITH TEXAS MONEY SINCE THE BOWL GAME LINES WERE RELEASED

That information doesn't do ANYBODY a damn bit of good now.
It sure would've been nice if you would have shared that with us yesterday.

I still like to believe that that's what these sites are for - SHARING INFORMATION !

I would seriously appreciate any info like that, that you might have in the future.
I take your word that it's a reliable source - so don't be shy - stop in and tell me please.

I know you post like 10 to 15 games a day, how anybody can follow it all is beyond me.
But i'd like to ask if you don't mind, could you make note of any
info of importance next to the play/plays where that info would help?

I don't and i won't follow ANYBODY randomly after just seeing their posted pick or picks.
But i would possibly follow someone if they shared the info that led them to that pick/picks.

I SWEAR TO FKN GOD - IF U SHARED THAT INFO WITH ME EARLIER, I WOULD'VE BEEN ON OSU
You can clearly see in my post that i was way off track in my thinking. (based on your info)
I was clearly convinced (in my own mind) that people were pounding the fuck out of OHIO ST.

Share the info man, that's what we're here for isn't it.

I'd appreciate it - Thanks !

[side note]
I personally don't give a flying fuck about ANYBODYS posted pick without an explaination.
On all of these sports sites there's thousands of people that just post a pick(s) and their done.
EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THOSE PICKS MEAN ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO ME ! (zero info)

**FRITO** · 01-06-2009, 02:45 PM

Originally posted by GOLDENGREEK View Post

.......They wanted to attract more Ohio St bettors

I sure don't want to argue about this all day, but that statement makes zero sense.

They're NOT going to attract more Ohio St bettors by taking points away from Ohio St.
(the line opened at (tex -10.5) it dropped to (-8) taking points away from Ohio St)
Ohio St bettors would want MORE points - not LESS points

just a comment - not an argument -

For about the first 25 days of the line being out, the line kept dropping -
(they needed more Texas money) a lot of money was coming in on Ohio St (i guess)

The line movement didn't start to help Ohio St bettors until gameday basically.

Complete Listing of Lines/Odds
OHIO STATE @ TEXAS
Time and Pointspread
12/07/2008 8:32 PM EST off off off off
12/08/2008 12:06 AM EST TEXAS -10.5 -05
12/08/2008 12:22 AM EST TEXAS -10.5 +02
12/08/2008 12:40 AM EST TEXAS -10.5 +09
12/08/2008 10:06 AM EST TEXAS -10 -05
12/08/2008 10:12 AM EST TEXAS -10 -12
12/08/2008 10:18 AM EST TEXAS -10 -05
12/08/2008 11:20 AM EST TEXAS -10
12/08/2008 11:36 AM EST
12/09/2008 6:30 PM EST TEXAS -9.5
12/12/2008 12:02 AM EST TEXAS -9.5 -05
12/12/2008 11:26 AM EST
12/14/2008 9:39 AM EST TEXAS -9.5
12/18/2008 11:48 AM EST TEXAS -9
12/18/2008 6:02 PM EST TEXAS -8.5
12/18/2008 6:34 PM EST
12/19/2008 12:06 AM EST TEXAS -8.5 -05
12/19/2008 10:52 PM EST
12/20/2008 12:04 AM EST TEXAS -8.5
12/26/2008 12:06 AM EST TEXAS -8.5 -05
12/27/2008 12:03 AM EST TEXAS -8.5
12/30/2008 1:47 PM EST TEXAS -8
01/01/2009 5:41 PM EST
01/01/2009 5:47 PM EST
01/02/2009 12:09 AM EST TEXAS -8 -05
01/02/2009 2:39 PM EST
01/02/2009 2:41 PM EST
01/03/2009 12:01 AM EST TEXAS -8
01/04/2009 11:09 PM EST
01/04/2009 11:49 PM EST TEXAS -8.5
01/05/2009 11:13 AM EST TEXAS -8
01/05/2009 12:11 PM EST TEXAS -8.5
01/05/2009 4:31 PM EST TEXAS -9
01/05/2009 6:31 PM EST
01/05/2009 7:09 PM EST TEXAS -9.5

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TEX - OSU / i don't know - you tell me ???

TEX - OSU / i don't know - you tell me ???

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