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CFB YTD 37-30 +2.7 units
Bowls 6-3 +2.6 units
4* 0-1 -4.4 units
3* 1-2 -3.6 units
2* 9-4 +9.2 units
1* 27-23 +1.5 units
CFB/NFL Combined 62-57 +0.05 units
4* 1-1 -0.4 units
3* 2-2 -0.6 units
2* 12-9 +4.0 units
1* 47-45 -2.95 units
I went to 6-3 in the bowls with UConn's win Saturday as my theory of "the MAC goes 0-5" keeps holding up.
Both of the following plays were posted in mid-December in my first bowl thread to take advantage of the ridiculous lines. The Ohio State line has moved two points since my post and the Tulsa line has moved six full points. I still reccommend both plays as I believe Ohio State wins straight up and Tulsa destroys Ball.
Monday:
2* Ohio State +10
I admit Ohio State hasn't beaten a good team all year but this is a team loaded with veterans around a brilliant young quarterback. Ohio State has stumbled badly its last two bowls and is highly motivated. Teams like Texas that end up in games they don't want---Texas wanted the national championship game---notoriously underperform in their bowls.
Besides, there's only one player in this game who will end up with a Heisman and he's not Colt McCoy.
Tuesday:
4* Bowl GOY Tulsa (2* +3/2* +2)
(I posted Tulsa originally as a 2* at +3 and upgraded to a 4* when the line had moved down to +2. My plays, for better or worse, are rated at the lines I get when I post, which is when I bet. In this instance, betting early worked as Tulsa is being hammered. For good reason).
1) The MAC had a very weak year which is the ONLY reason Ball State had an unbeaten regular season. The MAC's embarrassing 0-4 showing in the bowls so far reinforces my point.
2) Tulsa is unstoppable. They've been held under 30 only twice all year---East Carolina with a strong defense and Arkansas from the powerful SEC. Ball State is not in that category.
3) Tulsa scored 63 against a Rice Team that ended 10-3. They scored 77 against UTEP. They put up 49 against Central Florida. This is a truly special offense led by a coordinator who is becoming a legend (just hired by Auburn).
4) Tulsa just gave Graham an extension---this adss stability and will keep the team motivated.
5) Tulsa can really run the ball. FIVE RBs AVERGAE OVER 5.8 YARDS A CARRY. Ball has an undersized DL that gave up a high 4.3 per carry in the wweak MAC.
6) Both teams have excellent QBs but Tulsa's Johnson threw 43 touchdown passes and WR receiver Marrion is averaging an incredible 25 yards per reception.
7) Tulsa played a MAC team in its bowl last year. They won 63-7. Enough said.
8) I question Ball's motivation here. They have nothing to show for their unbeaten regular season as they lost the conference title game to Buffalo and aren't even conference champions. As I mentioned with Texas, teams that end up with lesser bowls than they expected often clunk.
Blowout; Tulsa by three touchdowns or more.
Previously posted and still pending:
1* Florida -3
Bowls 6-3 +2.6 units
4* 0-1 -4.4 units
3* 1-2 -3.6 units
2* 9-4 +9.2 units
1* 27-23 +1.5 units
CFB/NFL Combined 62-57 +0.05 units
4* 1-1 -0.4 units
3* 2-2 -0.6 units
2* 12-9 +4.0 units
1* 47-45 -2.95 units
I went to 6-3 in the bowls with UConn's win Saturday as my theory of "the MAC goes 0-5" keeps holding up.
Both of the following plays were posted in mid-December in my first bowl thread to take advantage of the ridiculous lines. The Ohio State line has moved two points since my post and the Tulsa line has moved six full points. I still reccommend both plays as I believe Ohio State wins straight up and Tulsa destroys Ball.
Monday:
2* Ohio State +10
I admit Ohio State hasn't beaten a good team all year but this is a team loaded with veterans around a brilliant young quarterback. Ohio State has stumbled badly its last two bowls and is highly motivated. Teams like Texas that end up in games they don't want---Texas wanted the national championship game---notoriously underperform in their bowls.
Besides, there's only one player in this game who will end up with a Heisman and he's not Colt McCoy.
Tuesday:
4* Bowl GOY Tulsa (2* +3/2* +2)
(I posted Tulsa originally as a 2* at +3 and upgraded to a 4* when the line had moved down to +2. My plays, for better or worse, are rated at the lines I get when I post, which is when I bet. In this instance, betting early worked as Tulsa is being hammered. For good reason).
1) The MAC had a very weak year which is the ONLY reason Ball State had an unbeaten regular season. The MAC's embarrassing 0-4 showing in the bowls so far reinforces my point.
2) Tulsa is unstoppable. They've been held under 30 only twice all year---East Carolina with a strong defense and Arkansas from the powerful SEC. Ball State is not in that category.
3) Tulsa scored 63 against a Rice Team that ended 10-3. They scored 77 against UTEP. They put up 49 against Central Florida. This is a truly special offense led by a coordinator who is becoming a legend (just hired by Auburn).
4) Tulsa just gave Graham an extension---this adss stability and will keep the team motivated.
5) Tulsa can really run the ball. FIVE RBs AVERGAE OVER 5.8 YARDS A CARRY. Ball has an undersized DL that gave up a high 4.3 per carry in the wweak MAC.
6) Both teams have excellent QBs but Tulsa's Johnson threw 43 touchdown passes and WR receiver Marrion is averaging an incredible 25 yards per reception.
7) Tulsa played a MAC team in its bowl last year. They won 63-7. Enough said.
8) I question Ball's motivation here. They have nothing to show for their unbeaten regular season as they lost the conference title game to Buffalo and aren't even conference champions. As I mentioned with Texas, teams that end up with lesser bowls than they expected often clunk.
Blowout; Tulsa by three touchdowns or more.
Previously posted and still pending:
1* Florida -3
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