Question about playoff lines

[poskid]

This is my first postseason for football. I'm planning on making a few bets however I'm watching 1 line in particular because it is very peculiar to me.

The Cardinals are getting shafted by 70% of the public while getting 3 at home. However instead of moving in favor of them to entice equal betting the line has moved opposite to +2. This looks particularly fishy to me.

I'm looking for some last minute line movement right before gametime to jump on the fire sale from the books looking for a bit of insurance on the other side after everyone loads up on the Falcons. I think this line moves to +4 or even +4.5 right before gametime which would prove my theory and therefore make my analysis correct...Thoughts??? Is my analysis incorrect???

PK

[roccodean]

poskid, I think the public will be on Atlanta just because they only have short term memory. Atlanta is playing well, and Ariz has been playing poorly as of late. But, I think this line closes at 2.5 or at most 3. It is unlikely to go above 3 because they know the sharps will be all over Ariz if it goes to 3.5.

[BettorsChat]

If the public keeps betting Atlanta it could go to +4, but I really don't see it going any higher than that. If you like Arizona I would grab them at +3 now just in case in moves down. Of course, if you like them SU then the line won't matter. I really don't think the line will be a factor in this game. Meaning if Atlanta wins they cover the spread or Arizona wins SU.

[Kaptain]

Monte

if the public keeps betting atlanta it could go to +4, but i really don't see it going any higher than that. If you like arizona i would grab them at +3 now just in case in moves down. Of course, if you like them su then the line won't matter. i really don't think the line will be a factor in this game. Meaning if atlanta wins they cover the spread or arizona wins su.

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[JOMO1]

maybe they want people to bet atlanta

[poskid]

Cardinals now a pk with 66% of the public money against. This line is getting fishier and fishier...

PK

[roccodean]

dont know what is going on with this line....my site has it at ariz -1 !

[griswold]

These sites that track public money are


WRONG.



They usually are tracking individual wagers, not dollars bet.


Lines are NOT moved by the public in most cases. They are moved by large bettors the books know. These so-called "sharps" are playing Ariz and San Diego because of the staggering tehncial trend favoring playoff home dogs in the first two rounds.

However, it is a myth....an ABSOLUTE MYTH.....that the public always loses and the "sharps" always win.

Ignore what the line movement is telling you and cap the game with your own thoughts.

[griswold]

Do not be surprised if heavy action now comes in on Atlanta and Indy as the big bettors who drove these lines down now go for a middle.

Anyone who knows a fairly large operation local bookie has seen this time and again. It is why most of the old time locals, jerks and wusses that they are, don't like to take early action.

[roccodean]

agree what you say about point spread movements and capping your own game gris! As far as middleing my plays, I never do it. If you took Ariz +2 and Atl -1 you are getting 20-1 on your money to hope that the score comes in between these two. I just like taking the team that is going to win! Just my opinion.

[crazy1464]

TAKE ARIZONA YOU WILL BE HAPPY AFTERWARDS!

[poskid]

These sites that track public money are

WRONG.

They usually are tracking individual wagers, not dollars bet.

I actually did know this...In fact the site I use states this emphatically in their user terms and conditions

Lines are NOT moved by the public in most cases. They are moved by large bettors the books know. These so-called "sharps" are playing Ariz and San Diego because of the staggering tehncial trend favoring playoff home dogs in the first two rounds.

I also knew this however I also understand the way that books make consistent low risk money is to encourage 50-50 betting and taking the juice. However they also have reason to throw out linesmakers that they have a good feeling will be overbet on the incorrect side when the line will exceed a certain losing %age.

However, it is a myth....an ABSOLUTE MYTH.....that the public always loses and the "sharps" always win.

I think this is a given considering the win percentage for any good capper rarely exceeds 60% and that betting trends that have no basis on actual performance of the teams involved are more likely to be losers...However I like checking these types of trends and possibilities to play a smart wager if they can be consistently played. Or whether they are a fallacy. I keep databses of every wager I make as well as every possible wagering style I'm contemplating. If this idea trends towards crap I will simply not use it. I need much more evidence than 1 game to make my decision. I'm not that stupid

Ignore what the line movement is telling you and cap the game with your own thoughts.

I eventually did bet the game myself. However I took the Falcons because the line movement pushed them into my line making method. Without the point shift I would have rated it a non-play.

PK