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Went 2-2 on the bowls on Wednesday. If things broke right we could have done better. But they didnt. So we move on. Hit the big 10 unit side (first one this bowl season) play rather easily with LSU and coming back with at least one more today.
Records below not updated.
245/246 Iowa/South Carolina Under 43 2 Units
I just dont see where the scoring is going to come from in this game. If I were the linemaker this would have been my lowest total number of all the bowls. Think about it, the Navy game had a posted total that opened lower than this. Navy has the #1 rushing offense in the country and Wake Forest's defense isnt as good as either of these teams playing today. Anyway, Iowa allows 13.2 ppg vs a South Carolina scoring offense ranked #92 in the country. Conversely, Iowa's offensive success is predicated on the efforts of rb Shonn Green and with South Carolina giving up just 289 ypg against some pretty solid offensive SEC teams, I like their chances of slowing down the Hawkeye offense.
245 Iowa -4 2 Units
Still looking at this game through the numbers, Iowa has a 17.5 point differential this year compared to SC's 1.5. Even taking South Carolina's more difficult schedule into account, thats still a big number. Gamecocks are also inconsistent at qb, shuffling between Garcia and Smelley much of the season, with neither of them having been their opening game starter. Interestingly and part of the reason why I am backing Iowa here is that were 3-3 SU vs bowl teams this year and 4-2 ATS. Nothing outstanding, I realize. But digging a bit deeper into that we see that their three losses were all to teams with at least 9 wins, by a combined 9 points. Thats a solid performance against teams just like this gamecocks team. The three losses to bowl teams were Pitt, NW and Mich State if anyone is interested. This team beat Penn State and comes in on a 3 game winning streak while SC comes in having lost their last two, albeit to solid competition. New Year's Bowl teams that were outrushed by 20 or more yards during the season are 0-10 ATS in bowls since 1996, showing just how important a run game is against good opponents. I like the Iowa run game and like Iowa to cover the number.
248 Nebraska +2 10 Units
This is my second 10 unit play in two days. I think the wrong team is favored here. Plain and simple. Granted its not a big line and for the most part Nebraska has to win anyway in order to cash, but that being said, I think thats exactly what they will do. Examining the numbers with this one, Nebraska averages 36 ppg, the highest scoring opponent Clemson faces this year. What is interesting is that in the last 6 games that Clemson has allowed 28 points in a game, they are 0-6 ATS. And in 5 of those games they were the favorite and lost outright. Nebraska's SU losses this year were to Va Tech, Mizzou, Texas Tech and Oklahoma. On the other hand, Clemson has lost to Maryland, WF, GTech, FSU and Alabama. There are no common opponents. Nebraska has the more prolific offense ranking #12 in total offense compared to Clemson ranking #81. Admittedly, Clemson is the better defensive team, but Nebraska coach Bo Pellini was hired for his defensive knowledge and given the extra prep time I think Nebraska executes the right game plan to slow down Clemson's running offense. And keep in mind, Clemson's high defensive ranking was garnered playing in a conference whose top offensive team is ranked just 46th, while 6 of Nebraska's opponents alone were ranked higher. So, defensive numbers in comparison may not be as far off as the rankings indicate. Add the fact that such a powerful offensive team is an underdog makes this a big play.
250 Georgia -8 5 Units
Another pretty big play for me. Michigan State lost 3 games this year to its 3 toughest opponents. That, in and of itself is okay. What is alarming though is that their 3 losses were by 25 ppg to teams in the same class as Georgia. As a whole they went 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS against winning teams. I cant say that though without saying that Georgia ended the season on a lousy 0-4 ATS run but it also should be noted that although MSU and their great rb Javon Ringer have gotten a ton of accolades for their powerful running attack, in fact, Georgia and Knowshon Moreno run the ball with a better average and stop the run, also more successfully than Michigan State. Its a big number thats tough to lay but I like the SEC vs Big Ten matchup here with a team with something to prove.
251 Penn State +9
253 Virginia Tech +2
These two will also be plays. Ratings and writeups on Thursday afternoon.
Best of luck everyone.
Records below not updated.
245/246 Iowa/South Carolina Under 43 2 Units
I just dont see where the scoring is going to come from in this game. If I were the linemaker this would have been my lowest total number of all the bowls. Think about it, the Navy game had a posted total that opened lower than this. Navy has the #1 rushing offense in the country and Wake Forest's defense isnt as good as either of these teams playing today. Anyway, Iowa allows 13.2 ppg vs a South Carolina scoring offense ranked #92 in the country. Conversely, Iowa's offensive success is predicated on the efforts of rb Shonn Green and with South Carolina giving up just 289 ypg against some pretty solid offensive SEC teams, I like their chances of slowing down the Hawkeye offense.
245 Iowa -4 2 Units
Still looking at this game through the numbers, Iowa has a 17.5 point differential this year compared to SC's 1.5. Even taking South Carolina's more difficult schedule into account, thats still a big number. Gamecocks are also inconsistent at qb, shuffling between Garcia and Smelley much of the season, with neither of them having been their opening game starter. Interestingly and part of the reason why I am backing Iowa here is that were 3-3 SU vs bowl teams this year and 4-2 ATS. Nothing outstanding, I realize. But digging a bit deeper into that we see that their three losses were all to teams with at least 9 wins, by a combined 9 points. Thats a solid performance against teams just like this gamecocks team. The three losses to bowl teams were Pitt, NW and Mich State if anyone is interested. This team beat Penn State and comes in on a 3 game winning streak while SC comes in having lost their last two, albeit to solid competition. New Year's Bowl teams that were outrushed by 20 or more yards during the season are 0-10 ATS in bowls since 1996, showing just how important a run game is against good opponents. I like the Iowa run game and like Iowa to cover the number.
248 Nebraska +2 10 Units
This is my second 10 unit play in two days. I think the wrong team is favored here. Plain and simple. Granted its not a big line and for the most part Nebraska has to win anyway in order to cash, but that being said, I think thats exactly what they will do. Examining the numbers with this one, Nebraska averages 36 ppg, the highest scoring opponent Clemson faces this year. What is interesting is that in the last 6 games that Clemson has allowed 28 points in a game, they are 0-6 ATS. And in 5 of those games they were the favorite and lost outright. Nebraska's SU losses this year were to Va Tech, Mizzou, Texas Tech and Oklahoma. On the other hand, Clemson has lost to Maryland, WF, GTech, FSU and Alabama. There are no common opponents. Nebraska has the more prolific offense ranking #12 in total offense compared to Clemson ranking #81. Admittedly, Clemson is the better defensive team, but Nebraska coach Bo Pellini was hired for his defensive knowledge and given the extra prep time I think Nebraska executes the right game plan to slow down Clemson's running offense. And keep in mind, Clemson's high defensive ranking was garnered playing in a conference whose top offensive team is ranked just 46th, while 6 of Nebraska's opponents alone were ranked higher. So, defensive numbers in comparison may not be as far off as the rankings indicate. Add the fact that such a powerful offensive team is an underdog makes this a big play.
250 Georgia -8 5 Units
Another pretty big play for me. Michigan State lost 3 games this year to its 3 toughest opponents. That, in and of itself is okay. What is alarming though is that their 3 losses were by 25 ppg to teams in the same class as Georgia. As a whole they went 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS against winning teams. I cant say that though without saying that Georgia ended the season on a lousy 0-4 ATS run but it also should be noted that although MSU and their great rb Javon Ringer have gotten a ton of accolades for their powerful running attack, in fact, Georgia and Knowshon Moreno run the ball with a better average and stop the run, also more successfully than Michigan State. Its a big number thats tough to lay but I like the SEC vs Big Ten matchup here with a team with something to prove.
251 Penn State +9
253 Virginia Tech +2
These two will also be plays. Ratings and writeups on Thursday afternoon.
Best of luck everyone.
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