Announcement

**Udog** · 12-30-2008, 06:21 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Wild Card Round

Saturday, January 3rd

NFC Playoffs
Wild Card Round
TV: NBC
Atlanta at Arizona, 4:30 ET

Atlanta:
0-8 ATS off BB SU wins
19-30 ATS after a win by 6 or less points

Arizona:
12-4 Over as an underdog
7-1 Over in home games

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AFC Playoffs
Wild Card Round
TV: NBC
Indianapolis at San Diego, 8:00 ET

Indianapolis:
6-1 Under if the total is 49.5 or higher
4-10 ATS vs. San Diego

San Diego:
19-8 ATS vs. conference
6-0 ATS at home off SU win

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Sunday, January 4th

AFC Playoffs
Wild Card Round
TV: CBS
Baltimore at Miami, 1:00 ET

Baltimore:
12-4 ATS this season
8-2 ATS off SU win

Miami:
3-12 ATS in home games
4-14 ATS off division win as underdog

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NFC Playoffs
Wild Card Round
TV: FOX
Philadelphia at Minnesota, 4:30 ET

Philadelphia:
10-1 ATS off division game
5-1 ATS vs. Minnesota

Minnesota:
0-6 ATS off home game
8-1 Over off BB ATS losses

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**Udog** · 12-30-2008, 06:25 PM

NFL

Wild Card Round

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Trend Sheet
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Saturday, January 3

4:30 PM ATLANTA vs. ARIZONA
Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Arizona is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home

8:00 PM INDIANAPOLIS vs. SAN DIEGO
Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
San Diego is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
San Diego is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games at home

Sunday, January 4

1:00 PM BALTIMORE vs. MIAMI
Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Miami is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing at home against Baltimore

4:30 PM PHILADELPHIA vs. MINNESOTA
Philadelphia is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Minnesota
Philadelphia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

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**pm530** · 01-01-2009, 07:34 PM

National Football League – Dunkel Index

NFL
Dunkel Index

Indianapolis at San Diego
The Chargers are 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season and look to take advantage of an Indianapolis team that is 3-7 ATS as a favorite. San Diego is the underdog pick (+1) according to Dunkel, which has the Chargers favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+1). Here are all of this week's picks.

SATURDAY, JANUARY 3

Game 101-102: Atlanta at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 136.569; Arizona 130.339
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 6; 44
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-1 1/2); Under

Game 103-104: Indianapolis at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 137.888; San Diego 139.700
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2; 56
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 1; 51
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+1); Over

SUNDAY, JANUARY 4

Game 105-106: Baltimore at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 141.405; Miami 134.346
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 7; 32
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3; 37
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-3); Under

Game 107-108: Philadelphia at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 140.406; Minnesota 140.258
Dunkel Line: Even; 43
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+3); Over

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**pm530** · 01-03-2009, 03:49 AM

National Football League – Write up

NFL
Write-up

Wild Card round games

Saturday, January 3

Falcons (11-5) @ Cardinals (9-7)-- Rookie QB, rookie coach, terrific run game for visitor, against high-powered offense of hosts, a perennial loser hosting its first playoff game since 1947 (they've won one playoff game since then, 10 years ago). Cardinals jogged in lame NFC West, but five of their seven losses were in EST- they went 6-2 at home, losing to Vikes, Giants. Falcons are 4-4 on road, winning three of last four- they've won three in row, five of last six overall, but did need late rally to beat Rams last week, when game had real meaning for Atlanta. Fascinating game, I am prejudiced being Ram fan, but think Warner's Redbirds are the side.

Colts (12-4) @ Chargers (8-8)-- Both teams are very hot, with Chargers needing to win last four games to back into AFC West title at 8-8. Colts were 3-4 at one time and haven't lost since, as Manning's knee has gotten stronger as year went on, San Diego beat Colts in playoff game at Indy a year ago, closing down RCA Dome, even with Rivers having bum knee and Tomlinson/Gates hurt. Worth noting that last four times teams met in playoffs with this big a difference in record, the better record was 3-1 in those games, but since 1975, home underdogs have covered nine of 11 in Wild Card round. 8-8 teams are 2-7 in the first round, over last 36 yrs.

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**pm530** · 01-03-2009, 04:48 AM

National Football League - Tips & Trends

NFL

Saturday, January 3

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Tips and Trends
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Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals [NBC | 4:30 PM ET]

Falcons (-1, O/U 50.5): Atlanta is back in the playoffs after tying the biggest turnaround in franchise history, going from 4-12 last season to 11-5 this year. Most of that credit is due to the offensive combination of NFL Rookie of the Year Matt Ryan under center and Pro Bowl RB Michael Turner behind him. “I’m certainly flattered,” Ryan said. “There’s a number of guys who had great rookie seasons this year, so to even be mentioned in that light is nice. It’s certainly a great honor, and I think it speaks to what we did as a team this year.” While neither player was with the team a year ago, rookie head coach Mike Smith also did a fantastic job putting all of the pieces together.

Falcons are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games on grass.
The OVER is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.

Key Injuries - WR Harry Douglas (concussion) is questionable.
DL Jamaal Anderson (ankle) is questionable.
S Lawyer Milloy (back) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24

Cardinals: Arizona is in the playoffs for the first time in a decade, with QB Kurt Warner starting all 16 games for the first time since 2001. “It’s been a long time in waiting,” Warner said. “So I definitely appreciate it and appreciate what we accomplished in St. Louis a lot more now, I’m sure, than I did when I was going through it.” The only thing better for the Cardinals would obviously be getting a postseason victory in their first home playoff game since winning the NFL championship as the Chicago Cardinals back in 1947.

Cardinals are 2-4 SU & ATS in their last 6 games overall.
The OVER is 9-1 in Arizona's last 10 home games.

Key Injuries - LB Travis LaBoy (ankle) is doubtful.
RB Edgerrin James (suspension) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (Side Play of the Day)

Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers [NBC | 8 PM ET]

Colts: Indy is riding a nine-game winning streak into its seventh straight playoff appearance thanks to NFL MVP Peyton Manning, who won the award for a record-tying third time on Friday. Manning has been magnificent during the hot streak, throwing 17 touchdown passes and only three interceptions while completing 72.1 percent of his passes. “How you got here, what you’ve done in the past - we all know it’s pretty irrelevant,” Manning said. “It’s kind of who plays better on that day, but it’s nice to know we found ourselves in a hole and kind of answered the question, ‘Could we dig ourselves out?’”

Colts are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
The UNDER is 3-1 in the last 4 meetings.

Key Injuries - S Bob Sanders (knee) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 28 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

Chargers (Pick'em, O/U 49): San Diego took a much different road into the playoffs than the Colts, backing into a shot at the AFC West title in the final game of the regular season due to Denver losing at home to Buffalo the previous week. The Chargers beat the Broncos 52-21 last Sunday night to claim the division crown and became the first team to accomplish that feat with an 8-8 record since 1985. “It’s a pretty strange season, ain’t it? But it’s good to be in this position, no doubt, to say that you’re division champs again, to be going to the playoffs and be hosting a playoff game,” San Diego RB LaDainian Tomlinson said. “That’s a great feeling for us.”

Chargers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games.
The UNDER is 6-2-1 in San Diego's last 9 games vs. AFC.

Key Injuries - TE Antonio Gates (ankle) is questionable.
RB LaDainian Tomlinson (groin) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27

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**BettorsChat** · 01-03-2009, 11:04 AM

Griswold posted this

What Has Happened Only Twice In 30 Years?
ANSWER:

A road favorite has covered a wild card round game.

I don't like to give out my technical info but this one isn't a big secret and is the reason for radical line movement in the Arizona and San Diego games.

Road faves are very uncommon in the wildcard round: only 11 of the last 90 games (pick 'em games are not included).

In those nine games, the home dog is 9-2 ATS.

I'm not playing either of Saturday's games as Norv Turner is the most unreliable coach to play in the league and Arizona was lousy down the stretch. In both cases, the line has moved three points to the home team and both games now have the home team favored or at pick.

This means the above system DOES NOT apply to either Saturday game.

Both Sunday games still have three point road favorites.

**BettorsChat** · 01-03-2009, 11:41 AM

write-up

Atlanta (-2) over Arizona (4 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 3)
The Falcons are just too tough and too rugged for the Cardinals. Arizona played the weakest schedule of any of the teams in the playoffs. They looked great beating up on the weak teams in their division, but they were blown out by most of the above .500 nondivisional teams that they faced. Atlanta has road wins over San Diego, Minnesota and Green Bay this year. They won't be intimidated by playing in the desert or playing on a big stage. Arizona has completely mailed it in during the last month of the year and they have no momentum. That's key this time of year. Atlanta is riding high and I look for Michael Turner to roll over a soft Arizona defense.

Atlanta (-0.5) over Arizona (4 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 3)
This is a first half play. I like the Falcons to get out to a fast start and I think they are going to dominate this one from start to finish. You can't win in the playoffs if you can't run the ball and the Cardinals are ranked No. 32 in the league in rushing. That won't work.

San Diego (+1) over Indianapolis (8 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 3)
The Chargers may not have impressed many people with their run to the playoffs, but they are here now and they come into this game with a lot of momentum. It's very, very difficult to beat the same team twice in one season if the teams are of equal talent. Indy already got the Chargers once and I don't think they will do it again. Especially because this is a different Chargers team that they are facing. San Diego has had Peyton Manning's number over the last few years and have beaten the Colts three of the last four times they've met since 2005. The Chargers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games and won't lose twice to the same team on their turf.

Baltimore (-3.5) over Miami (1 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 4)
I know that I am taking San Diego because I like their momentum and because I don't think they will lose to the same team at home twice. But that's because I think they have equal talent and experience to the Colts. I think Miami will be beaten by the Ravens at home twice in one year because I don't think that they equal talent. Baltimore dominated the first meeting and I expect them to do the same thing here. They are too experienced and too physical on both sides of the ball and Miami won't be able to hold up. Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in playoff road games and have covered five of six road games overall. Miami had a nice close to the year but they didn't beat any good teams the last two months of the year. The books are begging you to take the Dolphins with that extra half point. But this one will be a blowout.

Philadelphia (-3) over Minnesota (4 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 4)
Andy Reid has never lost his first playoff game and I think he ets the better of Brad Childress, who really hasn't proven himself as a great coach. The Vikings don't have stability at the quarterback position and you can't win in January if you aren't getting top quarterback play. Philadelphia is 10-4 ATS on the road and Minnesota is 3-7 ATS at home and I think both trends continue. The Eagles will light up a wounded Vikings defense and this one will be comfortable in the fourth quarter. Take the Eagles.

**pm530** · 01-04-2009, 01:50 AM

National Football League - Tips & Trends

NFL

Sunday, January 4

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Tips and Trends
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Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins [CBS | 1 PM ET]

Ravens (-3, O/U 38): Baltimore offensive coordinator Cam Cameron returns to Miami where he was the head coach of a 1-15 team a year ago. A lot has obviously changed there, but he has also helped develop an outstanding rookie QB in Joe Flacco, who was named the Week 1 starter after Kyle Boller went down with a season-ending injury during the preseason. “Joe has come a long way - it’s like night and day,” Boller said. “Seeing him now, he’s ready for the playoffs.” The Ravens have won five of their last six road games by an average of 12 points.

Ravens are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games on grass.
The OVER is 15-5-1 in Baltimore's last 21 games on grass.

Key Injuries - RB Ray Rice (thigh) is questionable.
CB Samari Rolle (ankle) is questionable.
S Ed Reed (thigh) is questionable.
WR Derrick Mason (shoulder) is questionable.
WR Mark Clayton (knee) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (Side Play of the Day)

Dolphins: Miami QB Chad Pennington won NFL Comeback Player of the Year for the second time in three years after helping resurrect his new team. Pennington was 1-7 last year as a starter with the Jets and then beat them and his replacement Brett Favre last week. Now the big question is, will he be as motivated going against a Baltimore defense that has held half of its last six opponents to 10 points or less? “He’s vital to this team, he really is,” Miami head coach Sparano said of Pennington. “With Chad coming in here and doing what he’s done right now and bringing a bunch of people together, these young players, what he’s brought to them from a leadership standpoint.”

Dolphins are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games overall.
The UNDER is 7-1 in Miami's last 8 playoff games.

Key Injuries - TE David Martin (head) is questionable.
DE Randy Starks (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 14

Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings [FOX | 4:30 PM ET]

Eagles (-3, O/U 41): Like San Diego, Philadelphia enjoyed an improbable run to get into the playoffs, yet this team finds itself as a road favorite. The Eagles won four of five games down the stretch to qualify for the postseason, outscoring opponents by an average of 23 points. Embattled QB Donovan McNabb came through when they needed him the most in what could be his final season in Philly. McNabb broke his single-season record for yards passing, and the team scored more points than in any other year in franchise history. “It’s an exciting time for us right now, but we can’t sit and dwell on this for a long time,” McNabb said. “We know we have a tough team ahead of us, a tough task.”

Eagles are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games.
Eagles are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Key Injuries - RB Brian Westbrook (knee) is questionable.
CB Asante Samuel (hip) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

Vikings: Minnesota won the NFC North despite inconsistent QB play, which could make or break this team right away. The Vikings saw the best and worst of Tavaris Jackson this season and had All-Pro RB Adrian Peterson to rely on throughout as he rushed for an NFL-best 1,760 yards. “This season has been like a rollercoaster, up and down,” Peterson said. “As a team we were able to overcome adverse situations. That’s one thing I always pray about before going out there on the field, is to help us to be able to overcome adverse situations as a team and to continue to fight.”

Vikings are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.
The UNDER is 3-1 in Minnesota's last 4 games overall.

Key Injuries - DT Pat Williams (shoulder) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21

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**pm530** · 01-04-2009, 11:26 AM

National Football League – Dunkel Index

NFL
Dunkel Index

Sunday write-up and picks

Baltimore at Miami
The Ravens come in with a 6-1 ATS record as a favorite this season and look to take advantage of Miami's 0-2 ATS record as a home underdog of 3 points or less. Baltimore is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Ravens favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-3).

SUNDAY, JANUARY 4

Game 105-106: Baltimore at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 141.405; Miami 134.346
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 7; 32
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3; 37
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-3); Under

Game 107-108: Philadelphia at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 140.406; Minnesota 140.258
Dunkel Line: Even; 43
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+3); Over

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**pm530** · 01-04-2009, 04:15 PM

National Football League – Write up

NFL
Write-up

Wild Card round games

Sunday, January 4

Ravens (11-5) @ Dolphins (11-5)-- Rookie QB, rookie coach, just like Atlanta yesterday-- whoops. Ravens (+3) won 27-13 here back in Week 3, picking off pass for TD, outrushing Miami 140-71, holding Dolphins to one TD on four red zone trips. Baltimore ended on 9-2 run after 2-3 start; they won five of last six road games, scoring 27+ points in all five wins (loss was 30-10 @ Giants). Miami won its last five games to circle field and win AFC East; they held eight of last ten opponents under 20 points, and are +9 in turnovers in last five games. Underdog covered six of Miami's last seven home games.

Eagles (9-6-1) @ Vikings (10-6)-- Childress worked for Reid in Philly, lot of familiarity here; Minnesota was even rumored as possible partner in trade if Eagles wanted to move McNabb after season, which probably is dead issue now. Vikes are home for third straight week- winning 20-19 vs Giants team that didn't need game, after they fumbled seven times in loss to Falcons (24-17) the week before-- they're 6-2 in last seven home games, 9-1 if they score 20+ points, 1-5 if they don't. Eagles are 3-4-1 on road- they held last four opponents to average of 10 ppg (four TDs on 42 drives) but only one of the four victims made playoffs. This is Jackson's first playoff game; McNabb/Reid been down this road many times before. Oddly, they had lot of trouble selling this game out.

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Announcement

NFL Wild Card Trends and Indexes 1/3 and 1/4

NFL Wild Card Trends and Indexes 1/3 and 1/4

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