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My undefeated bowl streak ended today in rousing fashion just about the time the NC State qb was being helped off the field due to injury
. Dropped my total play on the over and my side play on a Mizzou team that just didnt show up. I had no reason to think beforehand that they wouldnt but I guess I should of dug a bit deeper because the excitement level, or lack thereof, was obvious.
Anyway, on to Tuesday's games, a day that I had circled since the bowl schedule came out. Going to try another total and side and hope we fare better and I really think we will.
Humanitarian Bowl
4:30 PM EST
229 nevada -1 -2 / -1.5 / -2 -2.5 -135
230 maryland 58 58 59 +115
HUMANITARIAN BOWL - ESPNBRONCO STADIUM - BOISE, ID
230 Maryland +3 (Buy 1/2 -120) 7 UnitsThere is one stat about this game I love because honestly, the Nevada rush offense scares me. Nevada rushes for 291ypg and even in a shitty conference like the WAC, thats an impressive number. But what I find to be even more telling and has helped confirm to me to click the button next to Maryland is that Ralph Friedgen's Terps teams are 10-1 ATS against teams who average 200+ yards on the ground. To me that says that coach and his staff not only do a great job gameplanning, but they have the athletes with enough talent to execute it successfully. Now throw in the fact that there is extra time to prepare for the complex "Pistol" offense and I like it even more. There are no common opponents to look at between these two but there is a large difference in strength of schedule. For example Phil Steele puts Maryland at 36 and Nevada at 66. CBSSportsline puts Maryland at 35 and Nevada at 65. They both teams finished the year at 7-5 so the SOS ratings are fairly important to me in a situation like this. As far as conferences go, WAC (11-19 SU in lined games vs. non conference) is near the bottom and the ACC (23-11 in same situation) is ranked behind only the Big 12 and SEC in some publications. Of course that is a debate for a different day but the spirit of the analysis is more important to me than the specific ranking. And to throw one more tidbit in, the WAC wouldnt even be 2nd worst if it werent for the fact they had undefeated Boise to hang their hat on. Point is, records are the same, competition faced to achieve that record, very different. Last game of the year, Nevada had 31 put on them by La Tech. We just saw La Tech in action. 17 points and 7 of them were the result of a kick return for a td. Maryland played up to its better competition (4-1 vs top 25) and 3-4 to the others. Nevada isnt a top 25 team I realize, but this is a bowl game which I believe equals it out. Maryland averages 313lbs along the O-line and Nevada averages 265 along their D-line, so I like those numbers as well. Nevada is 1-7 vs BCS teams under Chris Ault in his second go around at the school and I think that record gets worse by one here.
Good Luck Everyone!
. Dropped my total play on the over and my side play on a Mizzou team that just didnt show up. I had no reason to think beforehand that they wouldnt but I guess I should of dug a bit deeper because the excitement level, or lack thereof, was obvious.Anyway, on to Tuesday's games, a day that I had circled since the bowl schedule came out. Going to try another total and side and hope we fare better and I really think we will.
Humanitarian Bowl
4:30 PM EST
229 nevada -1 -2 / -1.5 / -2 -2.5 -135
230 maryland 58 58 59 +115
HUMANITARIAN BOWL - ESPNBRONCO STADIUM - BOISE, ID
230 Maryland +3 (Buy 1/2 -120) 7 UnitsThere is one stat about this game I love because honestly, the Nevada rush offense scares me. Nevada rushes for 291ypg and even in a shitty conference like the WAC, thats an impressive number. But what I find to be even more telling and has helped confirm to me to click the button next to Maryland is that Ralph Friedgen's Terps teams are 10-1 ATS against teams who average 200+ yards on the ground. To me that says that coach and his staff not only do a great job gameplanning, but they have the athletes with enough talent to execute it successfully. Now throw in the fact that there is extra time to prepare for the complex "Pistol" offense and I like it even more. There are no common opponents to look at between these two but there is a large difference in strength of schedule. For example Phil Steele puts Maryland at 36 and Nevada at 66. CBSSportsline puts Maryland at 35 and Nevada at 65. They both teams finished the year at 7-5 so the SOS ratings are fairly important to me in a situation like this. As far as conferences go, WAC (11-19 SU in lined games vs. non conference) is near the bottom and the ACC (23-11 in same situation) is ranked behind only the Big 12 and SEC in some publications. Of course that is a debate for a different day but the spirit of the analysis is more important to me than the specific ranking. And to throw one more tidbit in, the WAC wouldnt even be 2nd worst if it werent for the fact they had undefeated Boise to hang their hat on. Point is, records are the same, competition faced to achieve that record, very different. Last game of the year, Nevada had 31 put on them by La Tech. We just saw La Tech in action. 17 points and 7 of them were the result of a kick return for a td. Maryland played up to its better competition (4-1 vs top 25) and 3-4 to the others. Nevada isnt a top 25 team I realize, but this is a bowl game which I believe equals it out. Maryland averages 313lbs along the O-line and Nevada averages 265 along their D-line, so I like those numbers as well. Nevada is 1-7 vs BCS teams under Chris Ault in his second go around at the school and I think that record gets worse by one here.
Good Luck Everyone!
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