Tweet
We hit the N. Illinois/La Tech under tonight in easy fashion, thus extending our bowl streak to 5 straight wins. NFL fared well also with a 5-2 mark, finally over .500, and more importantly hit both 5 unit plays picking up 16.6 units on the day in football. Basketball is another though and my record tonight in hoops is what I get for trying to handicap at 3am while almost asleep. Happy about the football results and look to continue it Monday.
We are getting into the meat of the bowl schedule and I like both of the Monday games.
225/226 NC State/Rutgers Over 56.5 3 Units
This total has risen considerably above its opening number. Not unlike the CMU/FAU game. In that matchup I mentioned on my post that I would have played the under even at its opening number and the fact that it had risen 8 points was an added bonus. Well, I feel the same way in this one only conversely.
I would play the over on this one up to 60. Rutgers, simply stated, is clicking on all cylinders offensively. It took them 6 games to get over the loss of star RB Ray Rice but now that they have, they are putting up gaudy offensive numbers averaging 46ppg their last 5. In that span, qb Teel is averaging 347ypg with 20 tds against just 5 interceptions and in this game he will be facing little resistance as NC State allows 243ypg passing in a conference not known for its passing numbers. Even more telling is that they allow a 63% completion rate which speaks to the lack of pass rush and to a secondary that allows receivers tons of open space. A secondary that Teel will be able to exploit. On the NC State offensive side, their redshirt freshman qb has turned it up after the usual feeling out period of a young qb. He has thrown only one interception on the year and currently is on a 226 pass streak since that int and has 16 tds. He is facing the #111 pass efficiency defense which allows 61% completions themselves. Both offenses ended the season playing much better than they started it. And if one team gets down the other has the ability to keep it a game with their passing ability. All three Rutgers bowl games under Schiano have gone over and I like that streak to continue here.
228 Missouri -12 7 Units Biggie
I am posting it at 12 here but I am personally going to keep an eye on it tomorrow. If I see it his over 12 I will buy it back down but I see that it has come down a tick so maybe there is a bit more value waiting although I anticipate not needing it. Look, Missouri's offense is like nothing Northwestern has faced this year. Not even close. Missouri will have their way with them and I would be shocked if they dont get into the 40's in this one. The disparity in the schedules faced is huge and the talent disparity on the offensive side of the ball is even bigger. Yes, Tyrell Sutton may give a lift to NW but he isnt 100% and will be rusty after a long layoff. I dont think I have to go into the numbers involving Mizzou's offense. They average a ton of points and yards and they are just good. Real real good. And experienced. And fast. And talented. Now defensively, I am also not going to get much into numbers. They give up 414ypg and a bit more than that the last two games. Two games against top flight offenses. I think they were probably a bit worn down. Missouri has faced 5 teams with a better offense (OU, Kansas, Ok St, Neb, Nevada) than any team on NW's schedule (Michigan State great running game not withstanding) and that tells me all I need to know about statistics in this one. I feel I know this Mizzou team pretty well as I have probably bet on 10 or 11 of their games this year. I went against them in my biggest college play this year in the Big 12 Championship game and I am going with them here in my biggest bowl game to date.
Good luck everyone.
Back with baskets and hockey later.
We are getting into the meat of the bowl schedule and I like both of the Monday games.
225/226 NC State/Rutgers Over 56.5 3 Units
This total has risen considerably above its opening number. Not unlike the CMU/FAU game. In that matchup I mentioned on my post that I would have played the under even at its opening number and the fact that it had risen 8 points was an added bonus. Well, I feel the same way in this one only conversely.
I would play the over on this one up to 60. Rutgers, simply stated, is clicking on all cylinders offensively. It took them 6 games to get over the loss of star RB Ray Rice but now that they have, they are putting up gaudy offensive numbers averaging 46ppg their last 5. In that span, qb Teel is averaging 347ypg with 20 tds against just 5 interceptions and in this game he will be facing little resistance as NC State allows 243ypg passing in a conference not known for its passing numbers. Even more telling is that they allow a 63% completion rate which speaks to the lack of pass rush and to a secondary that allows receivers tons of open space. A secondary that Teel will be able to exploit. On the NC State offensive side, their redshirt freshman qb has turned it up after the usual feeling out period of a young qb. He has thrown only one interception on the year and currently is on a 226 pass streak since that int and has 16 tds. He is facing the #111 pass efficiency defense which allows 61% completions themselves. Both offenses ended the season playing much better than they started it. And if one team gets down the other has the ability to keep it a game with their passing ability. All three Rutgers bowl games under Schiano have gone over and I like that streak to continue here.228 Missouri -12 7 Units Biggie
I am posting it at 12 here but I am personally going to keep an eye on it tomorrow. If I see it his over 12 I will buy it back down but I see that it has come down a tick so maybe there is a bit more value waiting although I anticipate not needing it. Look, Missouri's offense is like nothing Northwestern has faced this year. Not even close. Missouri will have their way with them and I would be shocked if they dont get into the 40's in this one. The disparity in the schedules faced is huge and the talent disparity on the offensive side of the ball is even bigger. Yes, Tyrell Sutton may give a lift to NW but he isnt 100% and will be rusty after a long layoff. I dont think I have to go into the numbers involving Mizzou's offense. They average a ton of points and yards and they are just good. Real real good. And experienced. And fast. And talented. Now defensively, I am also not going to get much into numbers. They give up 414ypg and a bit more than that the last two games. Two games against top flight offenses. I think they were probably a bit worn down. Missouri has faced 5 teams with a better offense (OU, Kansas, Ok St, Neb, Nevada) than any team on NW's schedule (Michigan State great running game not withstanding) and that tells me all I need to know about statistics in this one. I feel I know this Mizzou team pretty well as I have probably bet on 10 or 11 of their games this year. I went against them in my biggest college play this year in the Big 12 Championship game and I am going with them here in my biggest bowl game to date.
Good luck everyone.
Back with baskets and hockey later.
Comment