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DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S NFL GAMES
We've come to our final regular season edition of this feature. You long timers know that we'll continue all the way through the NFL playoffs with this special weekend article. The smaller schedules allow for expanded coverage with four games in each of the first two weeks, then two games on Championship Weekend, and one blockbuster edition for the Super Bowl.
There are several games this week that the sharps have largely left alone because the lines were so high at the opener. Professional wagerers tend not to lay big numbers in the NFL unless they're taking position to buy back on the dog later. There are a lot of dogs with nothing to play for this week...which means sharps are less likely to get involved in any way in the game.
Let's run through everything in rotation order so you're up-to-date...
OAKLAND AT TAMPA BAY: There was a little underdog action on Oakland +13½ right at the opener. Tampa Bay hasn't played very well in recent weeks. Oakland has covered a couple of spreads. That inspired a few guys to take the points at what they considered to be a very inflated line. Most people passed the game. Some dog lovers in general preferred to wait to see if the public took the line to -14 or higher. Through the week, that wasn't happening. It might Sunday morning. Note that this is a "bad body clock" game for the Raiders. Some guys are leaving the dog alone for that reason.
DETROIT AT GREEN BAY: The line here has jumped from Green Bay -7½ all the way up to -10 or so. The oddsmakers were expecting the sharps to hit Detroit because everyone knows the Lions are trying to avoid an 0-16 season. Instead...all of the early money was on the Packers! I do think we'll see some dog money hit this weekend. Maybe they were taking early positions and creating their own middle with heavy action. I have to say that what I heard about this game from guys I talked to wasn't matching the money. I always have to pay closer attention when that happens. The total dropped from 45 down to 43...and will come down even more if the weather is going to be an issue.
DALLAS AT PHILADELPHIA: The sharps have hit Philadelphia pretty hard here, driving an opener of pick-em up to Philly -2. It didn't make it all the way to a field goal. Maybe it should have based on the money, but sportsbooks didn't want to open up a can of worms by creating a middle with a -3 on the end. Dallas has been shaky in recent weeks, particularly against good teams. Tony Romo is hard to trust in a close game based on what we've seen against Baltimore and Pittsburgh. He didn't look all that great in the win at Washington either. Sharps are counting on a full effort from the Eagles even though a playoff berth is now a longshot.
NY GIANTS AT MINNESOTA: What would this line be in a normal regular season spot? The Giants would be a small road favorite at least. Because Minnesota needs the game badly, and the Giants don't need it at all, the Vikings opened at -6½. Sharps bet it up a half a point to -7 on the theory that the public would line up on the Vikings over the weekend. Sharps can by back and set up a middle on game day should the number make it to 7½, 8, or more. My read on the money wasn't support for Minnesota, but rather position taking for that middle possibility. Sharps don't like taking teams with nothing to play for, particularly one that may rest its starters. Several non-playoff teams actually WON'T rest their starters...so you still may get a good game out of them. Top seeds are better served by playing backups.
CHICAGO AT HOUSTON: Big move from the sharps here on Houston, as the Texans went from +1½ all the way to -3! That's a huge adjustment because it went all the way to a field goal and didn't bounce back down. Note that Philly stopped at -2 in a similar move at home against Dallas. The sharps think Houston will be very motivated to avoid a losing record with a win. Chicago was lucky to win Monday Night, and will have trouble winning a shootout on the road here. You don't often see this much affection for a non-playoff team. Houston garnered serious support at anything below a field goal. The total has fallen from 48 to 46½, which I understand is a math play from the numbers guys.
CAROLINA AT NEW ORLEANS: The line opened at a field goal, and is still technically a field goal even though it's still at -3. The juice has changed...with Carolina being -115 at first if you wanted them at -3. So much money has come in on New Orleans that you now have to lay extra vigorish to get the Saints and the points. Sharps are impressed with how Carolina has closed the season...but they see this as a tough spot off that brutal Sunday Night meltdown against the Giants. New Orleans played great at Detroit last week, and should still be trying at home against a divisional rival even if the playoffs aren't in play. Great message sending spot for the Saints...and that's how the early sharp bettors have seen it.
ST. LOUIS AT ATLANTA: The total has come down from 46 to 44...apparently on the assumption that Atlanta will get a lead then run out the clock against a no-show opponent. Atlanta will win the NFC South with a victory here and a Carolina loss in New Orleans. That's entirely possible. It's that scenario that's kept many sharps off the two-touchdown underdog Rams...and sharps love taking two-touchdown underdogs! Only sharp action here so far has been on the Under.
KANSAS CITY AT CINCINNATI: Not much interest here. It's a meaningless game with bad teams. The total shot up from 37½ to 38½ because of the style Kansas City has been playing lately. The defense looks tired...and the offense is scoring enough to create shootouts. If the weather isn't bad, that total will hold. If it is, we might see it drop back to the opener. Note that 38 is one of the most common Vegas and Reno totals...so crossing the 38 is actually a very bid deal. A jump from 37½ to 38½ represents serious action on a total. Nothing happening on the team side yet except for a few flyers on the dog.
JACKSONVILLE AT BALTIMORE: Baltimore got hit at the opener of -11½, driving it up to -12½. I see this as position taking for the most part. A lot of the "must win" teams were around -14 or so. Baltimore looked cheap in comparison. The sharps bet the favorite figuring the public will see it the same way and drive the line up to two-touchdowns. Worth taking a shot at a middle if nothing else. And...Jacksonville's been playing so badly lately that the original bettors may just let Baltimore -11½ ride. I think the total will only get hit if weather is a factor.
TENNESSEE AT INDIANAPOLIS: There was a big early move here from pick-em to Tennessee -3. Of course, if this were a playoff game that wouldn't have happened. Nothing is at stake for either team. Why all the love for Tennessee? The sharps like Tennessee's backups better than Indy's (the Colts lack of depth is the main reason they've played so many close games this year). Also, you've probably read that Vince Young is going to see a lot of action in this game. He may be the only guy on the field with something to prove. Sharps are betting on that edge being meaningful. They stopped investing when the line hit a field goal though.
CLEVELAND AT PITTSBURGH: Steeler money came in when it was confirmed that Bruce Gradkowski would get the start for the Browns. It's very hard to score on Pittsburgh in the best of times. How can a rusty fourth-stringer put any points on the board? It will only happen if the Steelers rest a lot of starters. That could happen with nothing at stake in the game. I was a little surprised the line flew past -10 so quickly (-9 to -11). Some of that's position taking of course.
MIAMI AT NY JETS: A tentative opener of New York -2½ moved to -3 very quickly. It's largely sat there since. The Jets have been slumping lately, and Brett Favre's shoulder is nowhere near 100%. You'd think that would be enough to put the sharps on the dog. Not yet. Miami isn't a cold weather team...and many sharps believe they were lucky to get past lowly Kansas City last week. If you have to get lucky at Kansas City, you're not a sure thing to win a big game on the road against a veteran quarterback. I think the sharps will eventually be rooting for the Dolphins. Many are waiting to see if the public's affection for Favre creates any additional value.
NEW ENGLAND AT BUFFALO: The total has come down from 43 to 41½, which is about all that's happened so far. Weather could be a factor. Even if it's not...New England may have more trouble here than normal putting up points. They're not facing a lousy team that doesn't care this week. They're facing a divisional rival who does! I think this is another game where the sharps will be rooting for the dog, but are waiting until game day to see if they can get better value. There's little reason to play a dog early this week, particularly in a high profile game. The public just went a few days with hardly any football! They'll be betting hand over fist on Sunday...and that usually means big volume coming in on favorites.
SEATTLE AT ARIZONA: This one was interesting. Arizona was -3½, as oddsmakers thought the hook might be the right spot to deep interest at a minimum. Arizona hasn't been playing well enough to lay more than a field goal. Seattle's been on a nice run, but is still at a talent and travel disadvantage. Instead of a pass, oddsmakers saw the sharps pound Arizona. The line moved from 3½ to 4½ to 5½ and all the way to -6½! It stopped before the TD, which means oddsmakers are really afraid of setting up a monster middle that includes the -7 as one of the sides. The public may leave this game alone because nothing's at stake. Looks like the sportsbooks will be rooting for Mike Holmgren in his Seattle finale.
WASHINGTON AT SAN FRANCISCO: Nothing happening here so far at all. Looks like something near San Francisco -3 and 37 will still be hanging at kickoff unless some news breaks. This one won't be on the public's radar.
DENVER AT SAN DIEGO: San Diego got hit hard at -7½, which has moved the line to -9 as I write this. That may not seem like a big move. Just remember the rule of thumb around the critical numbers. If the sharps liked the dog, they'd have taken +7½ right away because they were getting more than a TD. Just the line STAYING at -7½ would have signaled affection for the Chargers. The line didn't stay put, it went to 8 and 8½ (ideal range for two-team teasers) and all the way to -9. Some places are showing -9½. The sharps liked the resurgent Chargers here, and they knew the public would too. Minus 7½ was the best it was going to get. We may see -10 or higher by kickoff of this Sunday Night game.
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S NFL GAMES
We've come to our final regular season edition of this feature. You long timers know that we'll continue all the way through the NFL playoffs with this special weekend article. The smaller schedules allow for expanded coverage with four games in each of the first two weeks, then two games on Championship Weekend, and one blockbuster edition for the Super Bowl.
There are several games this week that the sharps have largely left alone because the lines were so high at the opener. Professional wagerers tend not to lay big numbers in the NFL unless they're taking position to buy back on the dog later. There are a lot of dogs with nothing to play for this week...which means sharps are less likely to get involved in any way in the game.
Let's run through everything in rotation order so you're up-to-date...
OAKLAND AT TAMPA BAY: There was a little underdog action on Oakland +13½ right at the opener. Tampa Bay hasn't played very well in recent weeks. Oakland has covered a couple of spreads. That inspired a few guys to take the points at what they considered to be a very inflated line. Most people passed the game. Some dog lovers in general preferred to wait to see if the public took the line to -14 or higher. Through the week, that wasn't happening. It might Sunday morning. Note that this is a "bad body clock" game for the Raiders. Some guys are leaving the dog alone for that reason.
DETROIT AT GREEN BAY: The line here has jumped from Green Bay -7½ all the way up to -10 or so. The oddsmakers were expecting the sharps to hit Detroit because everyone knows the Lions are trying to avoid an 0-16 season. Instead...all of the early money was on the Packers! I do think we'll see some dog money hit this weekend. Maybe they were taking early positions and creating their own middle with heavy action. I have to say that what I heard about this game from guys I talked to wasn't matching the money. I always have to pay closer attention when that happens. The total dropped from 45 down to 43...and will come down even more if the weather is going to be an issue.
DALLAS AT PHILADELPHIA: The sharps have hit Philadelphia pretty hard here, driving an opener of pick-em up to Philly -2. It didn't make it all the way to a field goal. Maybe it should have based on the money, but sportsbooks didn't want to open up a can of worms by creating a middle with a -3 on the end. Dallas has been shaky in recent weeks, particularly against good teams. Tony Romo is hard to trust in a close game based on what we've seen against Baltimore and Pittsburgh. He didn't look all that great in the win at Washington either. Sharps are counting on a full effort from the Eagles even though a playoff berth is now a longshot.
NY GIANTS AT MINNESOTA: What would this line be in a normal regular season spot? The Giants would be a small road favorite at least. Because Minnesota needs the game badly, and the Giants don't need it at all, the Vikings opened at -6½. Sharps bet it up a half a point to -7 on the theory that the public would line up on the Vikings over the weekend. Sharps can by back and set up a middle on game day should the number make it to 7½, 8, or more. My read on the money wasn't support for Minnesota, but rather position taking for that middle possibility. Sharps don't like taking teams with nothing to play for, particularly one that may rest its starters. Several non-playoff teams actually WON'T rest their starters...so you still may get a good game out of them. Top seeds are better served by playing backups.
CHICAGO AT HOUSTON: Big move from the sharps here on Houston, as the Texans went from +1½ all the way to -3! That's a huge adjustment because it went all the way to a field goal and didn't bounce back down. Note that Philly stopped at -2 in a similar move at home against Dallas. The sharps think Houston will be very motivated to avoid a losing record with a win. Chicago was lucky to win Monday Night, and will have trouble winning a shootout on the road here. You don't often see this much affection for a non-playoff team. Houston garnered serious support at anything below a field goal. The total has fallen from 48 to 46½, which I understand is a math play from the numbers guys.
CAROLINA AT NEW ORLEANS: The line opened at a field goal, and is still technically a field goal even though it's still at -3. The juice has changed...with Carolina being -115 at first if you wanted them at -3. So much money has come in on New Orleans that you now have to lay extra vigorish to get the Saints and the points. Sharps are impressed with how Carolina has closed the season...but they see this as a tough spot off that brutal Sunday Night meltdown against the Giants. New Orleans played great at Detroit last week, and should still be trying at home against a divisional rival even if the playoffs aren't in play. Great message sending spot for the Saints...and that's how the early sharp bettors have seen it.
ST. LOUIS AT ATLANTA: The total has come down from 46 to 44...apparently on the assumption that Atlanta will get a lead then run out the clock against a no-show opponent. Atlanta will win the NFC South with a victory here and a Carolina loss in New Orleans. That's entirely possible. It's that scenario that's kept many sharps off the two-touchdown underdog Rams...and sharps love taking two-touchdown underdogs! Only sharp action here so far has been on the Under.
KANSAS CITY AT CINCINNATI: Not much interest here. It's a meaningless game with bad teams. The total shot up from 37½ to 38½ because of the style Kansas City has been playing lately. The defense looks tired...and the offense is scoring enough to create shootouts. If the weather isn't bad, that total will hold. If it is, we might see it drop back to the opener. Note that 38 is one of the most common Vegas and Reno totals...so crossing the 38 is actually a very bid deal. A jump from 37½ to 38½ represents serious action on a total. Nothing happening on the team side yet except for a few flyers on the dog.
JACKSONVILLE AT BALTIMORE: Baltimore got hit at the opener of -11½, driving it up to -12½. I see this as position taking for the most part. A lot of the "must win" teams were around -14 or so. Baltimore looked cheap in comparison. The sharps bet the favorite figuring the public will see it the same way and drive the line up to two-touchdowns. Worth taking a shot at a middle if nothing else. And...Jacksonville's been playing so badly lately that the original bettors may just let Baltimore -11½ ride. I think the total will only get hit if weather is a factor.
TENNESSEE AT INDIANAPOLIS: There was a big early move here from pick-em to Tennessee -3. Of course, if this were a playoff game that wouldn't have happened. Nothing is at stake for either team. Why all the love for Tennessee? The sharps like Tennessee's backups better than Indy's (the Colts lack of depth is the main reason they've played so many close games this year). Also, you've probably read that Vince Young is going to see a lot of action in this game. He may be the only guy on the field with something to prove. Sharps are betting on that edge being meaningful. They stopped investing when the line hit a field goal though.
CLEVELAND AT PITTSBURGH: Steeler money came in when it was confirmed that Bruce Gradkowski would get the start for the Browns. It's very hard to score on Pittsburgh in the best of times. How can a rusty fourth-stringer put any points on the board? It will only happen if the Steelers rest a lot of starters. That could happen with nothing at stake in the game. I was a little surprised the line flew past -10 so quickly (-9 to -11). Some of that's position taking of course.
MIAMI AT NY JETS: A tentative opener of New York -2½ moved to -3 very quickly. It's largely sat there since. The Jets have been slumping lately, and Brett Favre's shoulder is nowhere near 100%. You'd think that would be enough to put the sharps on the dog. Not yet. Miami isn't a cold weather team...and many sharps believe they were lucky to get past lowly Kansas City last week. If you have to get lucky at Kansas City, you're not a sure thing to win a big game on the road against a veteran quarterback. I think the sharps will eventually be rooting for the Dolphins. Many are waiting to see if the public's affection for Favre creates any additional value.
NEW ENGLAND AT BUFFALO: The total has come down from 43 to 41½, which is about all that's happened so far. Weather could be a factor. Even if it's not...New England may have more trouble here than normal putting up points. They're not facing a lousy team that doesn't care this week. They're facing a divisional rival who does! I think this is another game where the sharps will be rooting for the dog, but are waiting until game day to see if they can get better value. There's little reason to play a dog early this week, particularly in a high profile game. The public just went a few days with hardly any football! They'll be betting hand over fist on Sunday...and that usually means big volume coming in on favorites.
SEATTLE AT ARIZONA: This one was interesting. Arizona was -3½, as oddsmakers thought the hook might be the right spot to deep interest at a minimum. Arizona hasn't been playing well enough to lay more than a field goal. Seattle's been on a nice run, but is still at a talent and travel disadvantage. Instead of a pass, oddsmakers saw the sharps pound Arizona. The line moved from 3½ to 4½ to 5½ and all the way to -6½! It stopped before the TD, which means oddsmakers are really afraid of setting up a monster middle that includes the -7 as one of the sides. The public may leave this game alone because nothing's at stake. Looks like the sportsbooks will be rooting for Mike Holmgren in his Seattle finale.
WASHINGTON AT SAN FRANCISCO: Nothing happening here so far at all. Looks like something near San Francisco -3 and 37 will still be hanging at kickoff unless some news breaks. This one won't be on the public's radar.
DENVER AT SAN DIEGO: San Diego got hit hard at -7½, which has moved the line to -9 as I write this. That may not seem like a big move. Just remember the rule of thumb around the critical numbers. If the sharps liked the dog, they'd have taken +7½ right away because they were getting more than a TD. Just the line STAYING at -7½ would have signaled affection for the Chargers. The line didn't stay put, it went to 8 and 8½ (ideal range for two-team teasers) and all the way to -9. Some places are showing -9½. The sharps liked the resurgent Chargers here, and they knew the public would too. Minus 7½ was the best it was going to get. We may see -10 or higher by kickoff of this Sunday Night game.
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