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I hope all have fared well in NFL. I rarely play the big league, and I'm glad I stayed away from the old "sharp strategy" of loading up on unders as the weather turns bad.
I will be playing another under in the New Orleans Bowl tonight, however. At first glance, I thought I would pass on this game, but taking a really close look at both teams, especially strengths and schedules, and the signs that I look for are all there for playing under another hefty total.
Southern Miss' star player is a freshman wide receiver, who catches passes from a redshirt freshman QB, and while they ended the season as a strong tandem, they did so against UAB, Central Fla and SMU. Those are bad defenses, who give up big points, and I'd be surprised if that combo can produce nearly so successfully against Troy.
Southern Miss scored 70 against UAB, and 51 against LA-Laf, and had a wild 40-45 game against a Rice team with one of the highest scoring averages in all mid-majors. All of this factors into their average scoring on the year, and I think it's interesting to note that So Miss also played a 7-24 game against Boise State, and a 21-3 win against East Carolina, who is not a terribly different team than Troy.
Troy's scoring disparities are even more vast. The Troy defense gave up the following scores:
vs Oklahoma State 55
vs LSU 40
vs Ohio State 28
ALSO:
vs Florida Atlantic 17
vs Louis Lafayette 3
All of the above are bowl eligible teams, but I'll rank So. Miss as being MUCH closer to the bottom two than the top 3. Both of these teams have turned the ball over VERY few times this season, and I see another evenly matched game with two good, but by NO MEANS great, offenses that does not shape up to be a score-fest.
Good luck.
I will be playing another under in the New Orleans Bowl tonight, however. At first glance, I thought I would pass on this game, but taking a really close look at both teams, especially strengths and schedules, and the signs that I look for are all there for playing under another hefty total.
Southern Miss' star player is a freshman wide receiver, who catches passes from a redshirt freshman QB, and while they ended the season as a strong tandem, they did so against UAB, Central Fla and SMU. Those are bad defenses, who give up big points, and I'd be surprised if that combo can produce nearly so successfully against Troy.
Southern Miss scored 70 against UAB, and 51 against LA-Laf, and had a wild 40-45 game against a Rice team with one of the highest scoring averages in all mid-majors. All of this factors into their average scoring on the year, and I think it's interesting to note that So Miss also played a 7-24 game against Boise State, and a 21-3 win against East Carolina, who is not a terribly different team than Troy.
Troy's scoring disparities are even more vast. The Troy defense gave up the following scores:
vs Oklahoma State 55
vs LSU 40
vs Ohio State 28
ALSO:
vs Florida Atlantic 17
vs Louis Lafayette 3
All of the above are bowl eligible teams, but I'll rank So. Miss as being MUCH closer to the bottom two than the top 3. Both of these teams have turned the ball over VERY few times this season, and I see another evenly matched game with two good, but by NO MEANS great, offenses that does not shape up to be a score-fest.
Good luck.
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