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Hi all. I have lurked here from time to time, as it is always a bit of encouragement to see others on games that I make heavy plays on. I spend a lot of time in game analysis, particularly on totals, and I play 2-3 games a week.
I will have no plays on the first six or seven bowl games with the exception of tonight's total, but after watching one over after another hit this morning, I was inspired to share my play on the UNDER in the BYU/AZ night tilt, and to explain my thoughts.
Quite simply, this total is inflated by a number of games that each of these teams has played against weaker opponents in which their points scored were far greater than the true efficiency of either offense, as well as a couple of fluke games that got out of hand. Case in point: BYU scored 41, 42, and 45 points against Northern Iowa, SDSU, and UNLV, and had a freakish 59 points against a UCLA team that was sloppy beyond belief.
Similarly, Arizona scored 70 against Idaho, and 48 and 59 points against Washington and Wash St., probably the two worst teams that the Pac10 has known in a decade. A shootout game with run-n-gun Oregon also inflates the expected total of this team.
I think that these are two fairly efficient, but not explosive offenses, and I think that scores against more similarly matched opponents are a much better barometer for the sort of total that this game will deliver. Examples of this include:
Arizona 10, USC 17
Arizona 17, Oregon St 19
BYU 7, TCU 32
I think that these teams are extremely evenly matched, and interestingly both offenses are strongest in the passing game, and both defenses have more often than not neutralized the passing attacks of the best QBs they have taken on. I think it is going to be crucial for both teams to attempt to establish a running game, and I expect that to be difficult early in the game, resulting in enough stalled drives to keep this affair well under 60. I have no idea which side will prevail, nor an exact score, but my money is on 24-28 points being enough to win this game.
Good luck.
I will have no plays on the first six or seven bowl games with the exception of tonight's total, but after watching one over after another hit this morning, I was inspired to share my play on the UNDER in the BYU/AZ night tilt, and to explain my thoughts.
Quite simply, this total is inflated by a number of games that each of these teams has played against weaker opponents in which their points scored were far greater than the true efficiency of either offense, as well as a couple of fluke games that got out of hand. Case in point: BYU scored 41, 42, and 45 points against Northern Iowa, SDSU, and UNLV, and had a freakish 59 points against a UCLA team that was sloppy beyond belief.
Similarly, Arizona scored 70 against Idaho, and 48 and 59 points against Washington and Wash St., probably the two worst teams that the Pac10 has known in a decade. A shootout game with run-n-gun Oregon also inflates the expected total of this team.
I think that these are two fairly efficient, but not explosive offenses, and I think that scores against more similarly matched opponents are a much better barometer for the sort of total that this game will deliver. Examples of this include:
Arizona 10, USC 17
Arizona 17, Oregon St 19
BYU 7, TCU 32
I think that these teams are extremely evenly matched, and interestingly both offenses are strongest in the passing game, and both defenses have more often than not neutralized the passing attacks of the best QBs they have taken on. I think it is going to be crucial for both teams to attempt to establish a running game, and I expect that to be difficult early in the game, resulting in enough stalled drives to keep this affair well under 60. I have no idea which side will prevail, nor an exact score, but my money is on 24-28 points being enough to win this game.
Good luck.
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