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DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH LINESMAKER NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S NFL GAMES
This has to be one of the craziest weeks I've seen in terms of NFL betting. You'll see some of the details in a moment. Sharps were extremely active on Over/Under plays...setting up a possible "perfect storm" disaster for sportsbooks.
In short:
Sharps have pounded UNDERS because there's potential for weather in so many spots, and because totals just seemed too high in a lot of other places too.
The public usually bets Overs, but will also pound UNDERS if they see that the weather is going to be bad.
If the sharps and the squares are betting the same way...AND THEY WIN...sportsbooks get absolutely crushed.
It might be a bloodbath for sportsbooks this week...or it may be a very Merry Christmas if NFL teams can put a lot of points on the board. Let's go game by game through the NFL slate to detail the dynamics that are in play.
BALTIMORE AT DALLAS: There was early sentiment on Baltimore +5 at the opener. The line came down to +4 and has stayed there ever since it was clear that Tony Romo would be able to play for Dallas. The total hasn't moved much. A lot of sharps went against Dallas last week with the Giants and lost, so they're not as gung-ho on Baltimore as they might have been otherwise. A lot of those same guys had the Ravens vs. Pittsburgh too. It's worth noting that the line stopped at +4 rather than coming all the way down to a field goal.
PITTSBURGH AT TENNESSEE: The sharps were all over the Steelers here, moving them from +1 all the way up to -2. That's not quite as big a move as it seems because ties are so rare. But, the Wise Guys clearly think Pittsburgh is the better team right now by a good bit. The Titans have been inconsistent over the past month, while the Steelers keep finding ways to win. When the game is a virtual pick-em, "finding a way to win" means covering the spread. The total has come down a tick from 34.5 to 34. If the weather is going to be bad, more Under money will come in on game day.
MIAMI AT KANSAS CITY: It's amazing that the Unders keep getting hit in Miami games every week...but the opening line won't adjust! The opener here was 42 on the total. It's now down to 39 or even 38 in some places. Every week! I'm not a totals guy, and even I've noticed that the sharps are hitting every Miami Under. The team side line opened at -4 and came down to -3.5. That's some support for the home dog. It didn't come all the way down to three though. And, if it did, a lot of Miami money would probably come in because finding a way to win the game will probably result in a push at worst. Miami has been winning these types of games, and has to keep winning to make the playoffs. It looks like the opener had a point of "need" factored in, and the sharps took a shot that it was a shade too high. The totals guys LOVED the Under at the early number. If the weather's bad, more Under money may come in on Sunday.
ARIZONA AT NEW ENGLAND: The dog and Under got the limited money that has come in on this one. Arizona was +8 at the opener, and it's down to +7.5 now. The total has fallen from 46 to 45. Based on how these teams have been playing lately, the Under doesn't make a lot of sense. I'm guessing that was based on preliminary weather forecasts. It was snowing in Las Vegas and Reno this week. So, people had weather on their minds, and bet any possibilities for weather on Sunday. They can always buy off of it if they need to. Note that New England is in the teaser window that crosses both the 7 and the 3 when you move the line six points on a two-teamer. Those haven't been as strong this year as in the past. But, a playoff contender in this kind of spot is going to get some attention.
CINCINNATI AT CLEVELAND: There was a big move here on the Under, as an opener of 35 came all the way down to 32. That was based on a combination of bad quarterbacking and weather potential based on what I was told. If you watched Monday Night's game, you know the Cleveland offense hasn't scored a TD in several quarters. Early money also came in on the Bengals at +3. You have to pay extra juice to get the field goal now. Some places may drop the line to 2.5 because NO money is coming in on Cleveland. That might trigger some Browns money. It might not!
PHILADELPHIA AT WASHINGTON: There was some Under interest here as well, with an opener of 40 dropping to 38.5. I saw some early support for Philadelphia at -4.5. But, not many places are settling at -5, so there must be some love for the Redskins at that price. Given all the games in the Northeast or Midwest this week, it looks like the sportsbooks will be rooting for a lot of Overs. That's normally not the case. The public bets Overs, but won't do that if all the pregame shows are talking about horrible weather. They'll jump on the Under bandwagon at worse prices than the sharps got.
SAN FRANCISCO AT ST. LOUIS: Here's a total that fell five points even though the game is indoors! The opener here was 48, which is inexplicable given how San Francisco has been playing lately. They've been bringing great defensive efforts under head coach Mike Singletary, but the offense has struggled to move the ball. Sharps pounded Under 48, Under 47, Under 46, Under 45, Under 44, and all the half point markers in between. We're currently seeing 43. Not much action on the team side. Sharps like taking San Francisco as a dog, but are hesitant to lay points given all the road games they've been playing lately. It's just amazing that the oddsmaker consultant types could miss a late season total by this much in a dome game.
ATLANTA AT MINNESOTA: Wait, it happened again! The opener here of 47 is all the way down to 43.5. That's not quite as bad as San Francisco, St. Louis. But, in any other week, it would be newsworthy. Tavaris Jackson tends to play lower scoring games than Gus Frerotte (though he had a big game in Arizona last week). Sharps are taking a shot that it's going to happen again here. The Falcons played a low scoring game vs. Tampa Bay last week indoors. Maybe the Falcons are getting too conservative with a playoff spot on the line. I can't recall a week in quite some time where the sharps where THIS heavily invested on totals plays. Sportsbooks will need some special teams and defensive points to bail themselves out this week. The team side line has been at Minnesota -3, -120 most of the week. The Vikings are getting most of the money. Oddsmakers know that if they lift the line to -3.5 they'll get exposed to a possible disaster when Atlanta money comes in. The public will really have to hit Minnesota hard to move that line off the three.
NEW ORLEANS AT DETROIT: Not much action here. Most of the sharps I'm talking with are considering Detroit because the Lions are trying to avoid a winless season while the Saints now have nothing to play for. They haven't acted yet in hopes that the public will take the line off the seven over the weekend. The public sees Detroit as horrible, and New Orleans as a team that kills horrible opponents! It's hard to know now if this is a game the public will be paying attention to because there will be so little media attention. It may just sit at seven because it's easy to visualize one-sided action at either 6.5 or 7.5.
CAROLINA AT NY GIANTS: Another game in a cold climate, and another big Under move. The total opened at 40, and is down now to 37.5. Remember, this has been time changed to prime time, making game time temperatures even colder. The Giants have been getting support at -3...which has increased the juice from -110 to -125 or so. The public tends to bet favorites, and to bet the Giants, so we could see that line move off the three late Sunday. Sharps will probably look for a four before buying back. They do like the Giants to bounce back and play well after a couple of bad outings. The totals guys are really pleased with their positions at anything Under 38 or more.
NY JETS AT SEATTLE: Big support for the dog and Under here. The Jets opened at -5.5, but the line is down to -3.5 now in most places I see. It probably won't make it all the way to -3 because sharps would buy back in strong at that number to lock in their middles. New York hasn't been playing well since the upset of Tennessee, and was lucky to beat Buffalo last week. Given losses to San Francisco and Oakland on other West Coast trips, it was surprising this number came so high. The total opened at 46 and is now down to 43. Not to beat a dead horse...but the casino's are so one-sided on totals plays its ridiculous.
HOUSTON AT OAKLAND: Not much interest here. A "feeler" opener of Houston -7.5 was bet down to -7 quickly. It's stayed there the whole way. The opener was testing affection for Houston after their recent hot run. Not enough affection to lay the hook on the road! Not much going on with the total here because Oakland isn't a city where weather matters.
BUFFALO AT DENVER: Support for the dog and Under here, but not as big as we've seen in other games. Buffalo was +7 at the start, but is now +6.5. I should say that's more anti-Denver sentiment than support for the dog. Denver's so inconsistent that you just can't trust them to lay big numbers. The total has come down from 46.5 to 45. If the forecast is bad on Sunday, the total will come down even further.
SAN DIEGO AT TAMPA BAY: Tampa Bay opened at -3, and got hit so hard early that sportsbooks moved to 3.5 to keep from getting too one-sided out of the gate. It was clear that the sentiment was going to be for the Bucs against the lame duck visitor. The longer you stick at -3, the bigger your exposure later in the week if the public comes in too. Sometimes sportsbooks will take a position and live with it. That was going to be too risky here. The sharps loved Tampa Bay at -3, and there hasn't been enough support on San Diego +3.5 to bring the line back. The total has come down from 43.5 to 42.5
GREEN BAY AT CHICAGO: Fitting that we have another big totals move to finish off the week. This one opened at 45 because Green Bay has been playing high scoring games lately. It's all the way down to 40.5 or 41 as I write this. It's another cold weather city with an unfriendly forecast for scoring. Oddsmakers seemed to misread this across the board this week. The Bears opened at -6 but are down to -4...so the sharps have really hit the Dog and Under here. That's a common theme for the week too. Tough to win big in bad weather. And, the Bears aren't really a blowout team anyway unless they get turnover breaks
WITH LINESMAKER NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S NFL GAMES
This has to be one of the craziest weeks I've seen in terms of NFL betting. You'll see some of the details in a moment. Sharps were extremely active on Over/Under plays...setting up a possible "perfect storm" disaster for sportsbooks.
In short:
Sharps have pounded UNDERS because there's potential for weather in so many spots, and because totals just seemed too high in a lot of other places too.
The public usually bets Overs, but will also pound UNDERS if they see that the weather is going to be bad.
If the sharps and the squares are betting the same way...AND THEY WIN...sportsbooks get absolutely crushed.
It might be a bloodbath for sportsbooks this week...or it may be a very Merry Christmas if NFL teams can put a lot of points on the board. Let's go game by game through the NFL slate to detail the dynamics that are in play.
BALTIMORE AT DALLAS: There was early sentiment on Baltimore +5 at the opener. The line came down to +4 and has stayed there ever since it was clear that Tony Romo would be able to play for Dallas. The total hasn't moved much. A lot of sharps went against Dallas last week with the Giants and lost, so they're not as gung-ho on Baltimore as they might have been otherwise. A lot of those same guys had the Ravens vs. Pittsburgh too. It's worth noting that the line stopped at +4 rather than coming all the way down to a field goal.
PITTSBURGH AT TENNESSEE: The sharps were all over the Steelers here, moving them from +1 all the way up to -2. That's not quite as big a move as it seems because ties are so rare. But, the Wise Guys clearly think Pittsburgh is the better team right now by a good bit. The Titans have been inconsistent over the past month, while the Steelers keep finding ways to win. When the game is a virtual pick-em, "finding a way to win" means covering the spread. The total has come down a tick from 34.5 to 34. If the weather is going to be bad, more Under money will come in on game day.
MIAMI AT KANSAS CITY: It's amazing that the Unders keep getting hit in Miami games every week...but the opening line won't adjust! The opener here was 42 on the total. It's now down to 39 or even 38 in some places. Every week! I'm not a totals guy, and even I've noticed that the sharps are hitting every Miami Under. The team side line opened at -4 and came down to -3.5. That's some support for the home dog. It didn't come all the way down to three though. And, if it did, a lot of Miami money would probably come in because finding a way to win the game will probably result in a push at worst. Miami has been winning these types of games, and has to keep winning to make the playoffs. It looks like the opener had a point of "need" factored in, and the sharps took a shot that it was a shade too high. The totals guys LOVED the Under at the early number. If the weather's bad, more Under money may come in on Sunday.
ARIZONA AT NEW ENGLAND: The dog and Under got the limited money that has come in on this one. Arizona was +8 at the opener, and it's down to +7.5 now. The total has fallen from 46 to 45. Based on how these teams have been playing lately, the Under doesn't make a lot of sense. I'm guessing that was based on preliminary weather forecasts. It was snowing in Las Vegas and Reno this week. So, people had weather on their minds, and bet any possibilities for weather on Sunday. They can always buy off of it if they need to. Note that New England is in the teaser window that crosses both the 7 and the 3 when you move the line six points on a two-teamer. Those haven't been as strong this year as in the past. But, a playoff contender in this kind of spot is going to get some attention.
CINCINNATI AT CLEVELAND: There was a big move here on the Under, as an opener of 35 came all the way down to 32. That was based on a combination of bad quarterbacking and weather potential based on what I was told. If you watched Monday Night's game, you know the Cleveland offense hasn't scored a TD in several quarters. Early money also came in on the Bengals at +3. You have to pay extra juice to get the field goal now. Some places may drop the line to 2.5 because NO money is coming in on Cleveland. That might trigger some Browns money. It might not!
PHILADELPHIA AT WASHINGTON: There was some Under interest here as well, with an opener of 40 dropping to 38.5. I saw some early support for Philadelphia at -4.5. But, not many places are settling at -5, so there must be some love for the Redskins at that price. Given all the games in the Northeast or Midwest this week, it looks like the sportsbooks will be rooting for a lot of Overs. That's normally not the case. The public bets Overs, but won't do that if all the pregame shows are talking about horrible weather. They'll jump on the Under bandwagon at worse prices than the sharps got.
SAN FRANCISCO AT ST. LOUIS: Here's a total that fell five points even though the game is indoors! The opener here was 48, which is inexplicable given how San Francisco has been playing lately. They've been bringing great defensive efforts under head coach Mike Singletary, but the offense has struggled to move the ball. Sharps pounded Under 48, Under 47, Under 46, Under 45, Under 44, and all the half point markers in between. We're currently seeing 43. Not much action on the team side. Sharps like taking San Francisco as a dog, but are hesitant to lay points given all the road games they've been playing lately. It's just amazing that the oddsmaker consultant types could miss a late season total by this much in a dome game.
ATLANTA AT MINNESOTA: Wait, it happened again! The opener here of 47 is all the way down to 43.5. That's not quite as bad as San Francisco, St. Louis. But, in any other week, it would be newsworthy. Tavaris Jackson tends to play lower scoring games than Gus Frerotte (though he had a big game in Arizona last week). Sharps are taking a shot that it's going to happen again here. The Falcons played a low scoring game vs. Tampa Bay last week indoors. Maybe the Falcons are getting too conservative with a playoff spot on the line. I can't recall a week in quite some time where the sharps where THIS heavily invested on totals plays. Sportsbooks will need some special teams and defensive points to bail themselves out this week. The team side line has been at Minnesota -3, -120 most of the week. The Vikings are getting most of the money. Oddsmakers know that if they lift the line to -3.5 they'll get exposed to a possible disaster when Atlanta money comes in. The public will really have to hit Minnesota hard to move that line off the three.
NEW ORLEANS AT DETROIT: Not much action here. Most of the sharps I'm talking with are considering Detroit because the Lions are trying to avoid a winless season while the Saints now have nothing to play for. They haven't acted yet in hopes that the public will take the line off the seven over the weekend. The public sees Detroit as horrible, and New Orleans as a team that kills horrible opponents! It's hard to know now if this is a game the public will be paying attention to because there will be so little media attention. It may just sit at seven because it's easy to visualize one-sided action at either 6.5 or 7.5.
CAROLINA AT NY GIANTS: Another game in a cold climate, and another big Under move. The total opened at 40, and is down now to 37.5. Remember, this has been time changed to prime time, making game time temperatures even colder. The Giants have been getting support at -3...which has increased the juice from -110 to -125 or so. The public tends to bet favorites, and to bet the Giants, so we could see that line move off the three late Sunday. Sharps will probably look for a four before buying back. They do like the Giants to bounce back and play well after a couple of bad outings. The totals guys are really pleased with their positions at anything Under 38 or more.
NY JETS AT SEATTLE: Big support for the dog and Under here. The Jets opened at -5.5, but the line is down to -3.5 now in most places I see. It probably won't make it all the way to -3 because sharps would buy back in strong at that number to lock in their middles. New York hasn't been playing well since the upset of Tennessee, and was lucky to beat Buffalo last week. Given losses to San Francisco and Oakland on other West Coast trips, it was surprising this number came so high. The total opened at 46 and is now down to 43. Not to beat a dead horse...but the casino's are so one-sided on totals plays its ridiculous.
HOUSTON AT OAKLAND: Not much interest here. A "feeler" opener of Houston -7.5 was bet down to -7 quickly. It's stayed there the whole way. The opener was testing affection for Houston after their recent hot run. Not enough affection to lay the hook on the road! Not much going on with the total here because Oakland isn't a city where weather matters.
BUFFALO AT DENVER: Support for the dog and Under here, but not as big as we've seen in other games. Buffalo was +7 at the start, but is now +6.5. I should say that's more anti-Denver sentiment than support for the dog. Denver's so inconsistent that you just can't trust them to lay big numbers. The total has come down from 46.5 to 45. If the forecast is bad on Sunday, the total will come down even further.
SAN DIEGO AT TAMPA BAY: Tampa Bay opened at -3, and got hit so hard early that sportsbooks moved to 3.5 to keep from getting too one-sided out of the gate. It was clear that the sentiment was going to be for the Bucs against the lame duck visitor. The longer you stick at -3, the bigger your exposure later in the week if the public comes in too. Sometimes sportsbooks will take a position and live with it. That was going to be too risky here. The sharps loved Tampa Bay at -3, and there hasn't been enough support on San Diego +3.5 to bring the line back. The total has come down from 43.5 to 42.5
GREEN BAY AT CHICAGO: Fitting that we have another big totals move to finish off the week. This one opened at 45 because Green Bay has been playing high scoring games lately. It's all the way down to 40.5 or 41 as I write this. It's another cold weather city with an unfriendly forecast for scoring. Oddsmakers seemed to misread this across the board this week. The Bears opened at -6 but are down to -4...so the sharps have really hit the Dog and Under here. That's a common theme for the week too. Tough to win big in bad weather. And, the Bears aren't really a blowout team anyway unless they get turnover breaks
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