NFL Week 16 Picks

[roccodean]

Will probably have 3 or 4 more plays and all analysis to follow. Good luck!

3* K.C +4 over Miami


2* Tennessee over Pittsburgh


2* N.Y. Giants -3 over Carolina (possible upgrade to 3*)

[BettorsChat]

gl Dean

[orientalhawn]

good luck!!

[BillMill71]

Good Luck Rocco

[jmarty6969]

gl rocco

[roccodean]

thanks guys Adding:

Based on 1*-5*

1* TB -3 over SD

[Kaptain]

gl w/ the NFL this weekend

[roccodean]

Thanks guys. I usually only like about 3 games per week but this week I like about 8. In additon to above I am leaning on Det, Sea, Oak, Buf, Min. Ill post my final plays soon.

[jt4545]

Good luck

[roccodean]

I am going to take off my Tennessee straight up pick and replace it with the tease below. May have more to follow.

3* K.C +4 over Miami
This is my play of the week! Don't be scared that Miami is playing for the playoffs and KC is eliminated. In fact, since 1990 teams that are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs facing teams that are fighting for a playoff spot are 75-48-4 ATS. Miami is coming off three consecutive wins and this is their third road game out of four. Miami may be 9-5, but they are simply a mediocre team. They benefit from a +12 turnover ratio (not likely to last) and a strength of schedule that is 30th in the NFL. They barely beat Seattle, Oakland, and St. Louis-three of the worst teams in the league. K.C. has been much improved their last few games after they have implemented their new spread offense with Thigpen at the helm. Also, it is expected to be 15 degrees with wind and snow, which favors the Chiefs as they average 4.3 YPR (4th in the NFL). Miami's source of offense is Pennington who averages 7.8 YPPA (5th), but he won't be able to do that with his weak arm in the wind. This will force Miami to run, but they only average 4 YPR (18th). Miami's D is average allowing 4 YPR (14th) and 7 YPPA (18th).

2* 6 point Tease:
Tennessee +8 over Pittsburgh
I like Tennesse, but their defensive linemen being out worries me, but I don't think they are going to get blown out so I love them +8. Pittsburgh cannot keep winning these close games! They are coming off three consecutive hard fought games (NE, Dallas, Baltimore). Now they have to go on the road and face another smash-mouth football team in Tennessee. I don't pu too much stock into their 3 consecutive wins. At NE they were +5 in turnovers and against Dallas they were +2. After Tennessee won the division, they were put back on level ground by Houston last week and will get back to their form. Pitt won't be able to run the ball against a Titans D that allows only 3.7 YPR (8th). If Haynesworth was playing I would have Tenn as a 3*. The Steelers running game has been bad this year averaging only 3.6 YPR (29th). Big Ben has never impressed me and this week he will have to face a Titans D that is second in the league allowing only 5.7 YPPA and is 6th in sacks/game. The Steelers are 1st in pass D and rush D, but their competition hasn't been good and I see Tenn running on them. The Titans are 1st in the league in sacks/game allowed which will give Collins time to pass. My Super System has the Titans -3.3 and there is a solid 209-117 trend favoring the Titans. I don't see either team moving the ball well, so 8 points is beautiful.
N.E. -2 over Arizona
For my other side of the tease I'm taking the Pats. I don't see them losing in the cold to Arizona. Zona locked up their division and they have lost by an average of 22 points on the east coast. With the snow flurries the Pats will be able to run (4.5 YPR) against a Zona D that allows 4 YPR (16th). Zona on the other hand has no running game averaging only 3.4 YPR (31st). Bellichick will have his troops ready in this battle.

2* N.Y. Giants -3 over Carolina (probable upgrade to 3*)
I should give Sportscenter the deed to my house because I think they won more money for me than my Super System. The media overhypes teams that have won a few games and overreacts to teams that lost a couple. This line should be NY -6 to -7 but because the Giants lost two games in a row and the media is hyping the Panthers this is merely a field goal line. You have to look at the body of work! All of Carolina's losses (3) have been on the road (Minn, TB, Atl). They haven't been one good team on the road (SD, Oakland, GB). Now they face the returning champs off two losses…forget about it! The Giants average 4.8 YPR (3rd) and Jacobs is listed as questionable but sources tell me he will play. Carolina's "great defense" allows 4.1 YPR (18th). Burress being hurt doesn't worry me at all, the actually average 0.5 yards/play more without him. The Giants D is very good allowing only 3.9 YPR (10th) and 6.6 YPPA (9th). They put great pressure on the QB and two offensive lineman are hurt for the Panthers…Delhomme may cry. My Super System has the Giants -6. The Giants rebound big in this game!

1* T.B. -3 over San Diego
San Diego is not a good football team…plain and simple. Their lines have been off all year, and they continue to be here. Diego is 2-5 on the road and are now flying cross country to face a Bucs team off two consecutive losses and is undefeated (6-0) at home. Gruden is cash in the bank after a loss! Both teams will be playing hard as their playoff hopes are in limbo. Diego averages only 3.8 YPR (28th), so I don't think that Tampa's rush D that is ranked 23rd should have any problem. Tampa's pass D is very good allowing only 6.5 YPPA (8th). On offense Tampa averages 4 YPR and 6.7 YPPA. San Diego allows 3.9 YPR and 6.8 YPPA. My Super System has the Bucs -6.

1* Minnesota -3 over Atlanta
Both of these teams are fighting for their playoff life. Minnesota is tough at home (5-1) while the Falcons struggle on the road (3-4 with losses to TB, Car, Phil, N.O.). It's evident that when the Falcons play a winning team on the road they struggle. Atlanta's achilles heel is their run D that allows 4.8 YPR (29th) and will have to hold down A.P. and the Vikes who average 147 YPG rushing (3rd). T. Jackson played very good last week and I think this continues this week against a Falcons team that allows 7 YPPA (23rd). Minnesota's has one of the best rush D's in the league allowing only 3.3 YPR. Their pass D isn't that great giving up 7.1 YPPA, but they should get the job done. They are coming off two road games so should be ready for a big home win. There is a great money line trend that is 37-4 straight up on the Vikes! I like Minne as a 1*.

[roccodean]

1* Seattle +3.5 over N.Y. Jets
The Jets cannot win on the west coast losing to SF, Oakland, Denver, and SD. Seattle will be playing their hearts out because this is Holmgren's last game. The Jets strongest part of their game is their running attack that averages 4.8 YPR (1st), but the Seahawks allow 3.9 YPR. Favre has been up and down this year and is averaging 6.7 YPPA (19th) and will face a Hawks D that allows 7.7 YPPA. Seattle has a good run game rushing for 4.4 YPR (9th). Wallace has been playing better as of late. I think that the Hawks get the win or keep it close enough for the cover. There is a 74-32 ATS trend favoring the Hawks.

[10DimeBry]

GL today rocco

[libertypl]

BOL today rocco on all your plays love the KC play.

[LeRoy]

GL today Rocco

[roccodean]

Thanks guys. Adding. May add Oak and Dever too.

1* Det +7 over N.O.
Detroit is winless and is going to be playing hard so they don’t go down as the worst team in history. On the other hand, the Saints had high hopes coming into the season and after getting bounced from the playoffs they are going to be down this week. There is no need going into the stats, we all know that the Saints are the better football team, but actually their defense isn’t much better. The Saints allow 4.1 YPR (16th) and 6.9 YPPA (17th). Brees is great, but their rushing offense is terrible averaging a pitiful 3.8 YPR (27th). There are 5 good trends favoring Detroit. Im also taking the Lions ML for 0.2 units.