CFB Saturday: Bowl Day I

[griswold]

CFB YTD 31-26 +0.4 units
4* 0-1 -4.4 units
3* 0-1 -3.3 units
2* 8-4 +7.2 units
1* 23-20 +0.8 units

The great benefit of the absence of a CFB playoff system is the opprotunity to play all these bowl games---many of which I find to be very attractive. I'm posting one Saturday play with a writeup and I'm playing the others now at the listed lines. I'll add others as the bowl season goes on and write up the other plays as we move along.

The games I am playing now are ones in which I think the lines will move against me.

1* BYU +3
Arizona was a so-so team in a very down year in the Pac 10. BYU has had great success playing Vegas in the past. I'm bothered by Arizona's superior run game but BYU has the better offense and is getting points.

I'm playing the following now at the listed lines and rating strengths (games listed in chronoligical order):

3* Notre Dame +1 (hit this NOW---worst bowl line in five years)
1* North Carolina pk
1* Vanderbilt +4
3* Penn State +10 (PSU wins straight up)
1* Mississippi +5 1/2
1* UConn -4 (posted earlier)
2* Ohio State +10 (-120) (play now and buy hook; it may go as low as 8)
2* Tulsa +3 (A MAC team is favored??????)

[aplous]

CFB YTD 31-26 +0.4 units
4* 0-1 -4.4 units
3* 0-1 -3.3 units
2* 8-4 +7.2 units
1* 23-20 +0.8 units

The great benefit of the absence of a CFB playoff system is the opprotunity to play all these bowl games---many of which I find to be very attractive. I'm posting one Saturday play with a writeup and I'm playing the others now at the listed lines. I'll add others as the bowl season goes on and write up the other plays as we move along.

The games I am playing now are ones in which I think the lines will move against me.

1* BYU +3
Arizona was a so-so team in a very down year in the Pac 10. BYU has had great success playing Vegas in the past. I'm bothered by Arizona's superior run game but BYU has the better offense and is getting points.

I'm playing the following now at the listed lines and rating strengths (games listed in chronoligical order):

3* Notre Dame +1 (hit this NOW---worst bowl line in five years)
1* North Carolina pk
1* Vanderbilt +4
3* Penn State +10 (PSU wins straight up)
1* Mississippi +5 1/2
1* UConn -4 (posted earlier)
2* Ohio State +10 (-120) (play now and buy hook; it may go as low as 8)
2* Tulsa +3 (A MAC team is favored??????)

GL this bowl season Gris. Im with you on BYU and a few others.

Im really interested to hear your thoughts about the Irish. Hawaii's D has impressed me very much against good teams (Boise/Nati). I know that fat Charlie will have them motivated, but can they really be that excited to be in the Hawaii bowl? I think the natives will be more pumped to get to play a team like the Irish in their bowl.

[griswold]

Sunday
(I'll write these up later; play Seattle ASAP as line may drop to 3)
NFL

1* Chiefs +3 1/2

1* Seahawks +4

1* Bucs -3 (-130)

[DBURGH]

GOOD LUCK GRIS...Giving some love to the Big 10,,,,I am not convinced...

[orientalhawn]

gris good luck!!

[10DimeBry]

GL with the BYU today gris

[jt4545]

good luck gris

[griswold]

NFL Saturday

NFL YTD 20-23 -8.05 units
2* 3-5 -5.2 units
1* 17-18 -2.85 units

1* Cowboys -4
I've been wrestling with this play because of Marion Barber's uncertain status and the fact that he has been a shell of himself since his injury. But this is a big situational spot for Dallas. They're playing their last home game and have to win to get into the playoffs. They had Pittsburgh beaten on the road and looked outstanding in stopping the Giants. The Ravens, on the other hand, were offensively inept at home against the Steelers in their biggest game of the year. If Dallas can get to 20, they'll cover. For what it's worth, there is a monster longterm stat on playing non-conf teams at home on Saturday but I generally give such systems very little weight.