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Sunday NFL 10/26..........
I'm going to try and build on last weeks 5-2 performance and turn this season around. I really like the card this week, these are my plays.....
3 STAR: PITTSBURGH (-1.5) OVER St. Louis
The Steelers played pretty well even though they lost in their last game at Denver, and have had an extra week off to get ready for the Rams. St. Louis is only 1-9 straight up in their last ten road games and they are only 2-11 against the spread versus teams coming off of a bye week. The Rams have not fared well on the road against AFC teams, going 1-6 against the spread their last seven games on the road against the AFC, while the Steelers are an impressive 9-1-1 straight up at home in their last eleven games against NFC foes. Also, the Rams are 1-5 against the spread in road games in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons and road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after 3 or more consecutive wins, after the first month of the season are only 48-81 against the spread since 1983. I look for an energized Steelers offense in this game, as Jerome Bettis will get his first start of the season as the Steelers will try to ride the "Bus" to victory. Pittsburgh usually starts to click around this time of the year as they are 8-1 against the spread in October games over the last 3 seasons. Another advantage for the Steelers defense is the field, the Rams are only 2-10 against the spread in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons. Steelers get it done here!
3 STAR: New York Giants (+6) OVER MINNESOTA
The Giants have been very disappointing this season as they continue to find ways to lose a game. Last week was no exception, as they played Philly tough the whole game took the lead late and then blew it by allowing a big kick return. Many people our now sour on the G-Men and will most likely put their money on the undefeated Vikings who are 6-0 both straight up and against the spread. But this is actually a good spot for the Giants to get the cover. In the first eleven weeks of the season, teams that are favored by more than 5 points and are 5-0 straight up and against the spread in their last five games are only 10-31-1 against the spread. The Giants offensive weapons on this team have been silent for a few weeks now, but I think that they break out in this game. Kerry Collins has always put up pretty good numbers against the Vikings and should do so again here. The Giants are 6-1 against the spread after scoring 14 points or less in 3 straight games since 1992 so history suggests that they should get it going in this one. The Vikings offense has been great, but the Giants have held there own against high powered offenses in the past, as they are 5-1 against the spread versus good offensive teams that are averaging 350 or more yards per game over the last 3 seasons. Take the points here!
3 STAR: Cleveland (+5.5) OVER NEW ENGLAND
A good spot here for the Browns in what should be a close, low scoring game. We get a little extra valuse in this line due to the fact that New England won on the road last week against Miami, while Cleveland became the victim for San Diego's first win of the season at home. The Browns matchup well with New England. The Patriots don't have much of a running game, and Cleveland has the #1 ranked pass defense in the league yielding only 148 yards per game. The quarterback situation is up in the air again, but I think either of the two starters should be able to get the job done here. Cleveland has been excellent of the road as of late, they head into Foxboro with 8 wins in their last 11 road games. The Patriots have not done well in this role as a favorite, as they are only 17-33 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992 and they are 1-5 against the spread after an upset win over a division rival as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. Look for the let down here, take the points!
3 STAR: TAMPA BAY (-7) OVER Dallas
The Tuna has Dallas playing very well this season, but it is time for them to come down to earth. Tampa Bay has been inconsistant this season coming in with a 3-3 record, but look for them to get back on track here against the Cowboys. Quincy Carter has been doing a good job for Dallas, but look for his to make mistakes in this game against the Bucs. Dallas has not played a team that has a winning record yet this year, and the inexperience at quarterback will show in this game. The Cowboys spanked the Lions last week, but they are only 2-10 against the spread in road games after a win by 21 or more points since 1992. Tampa is coming off of an upset loss at San Francisco last week in a game in which they were a five point favorite. In their franchise history, Tampa Bay is 14-0 against the spread when they are favored after a straight up loss as a favorite. Tampa Bay is also 10-2 against the spread in the first of two back to back home games. The Bucs roll here!
2003 NFL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 4-5 (-7.5 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 10-12-1 (-9.6 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 6-10-1 (-9.9 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 1-1 (-0.2 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 21-28-2 (-27.2 UNITS)
A $100 player would be down $2720.00
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
3 STAR: PITTSBURGH (-1.5) OVER St. Louis
The Steelers played pretty well even though they lost in their last game at Denver, and have had an extra week off to get ready for the Rams. St. Louis is only 1-9 straight up in their last ten road games and they are only 2-11 against the spread versus teams coming off of a bye week. The Rams have not fared well on the road against AFC teams, going 1-6 against the spread their last seven games on the road against the AFC, while the Steelers are an impressive 9-1-1 straight up at home in their last eleven games against NFC foes. Also, the Rams are 1-5 against the spread in road games in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons and road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after 3 or more consecutive wins, after the first month of the season are only 48-81 against the spread since 1983. I look for an energized Steelers offense in this game, as Jerome Bettis will get his first start of the season as the Steelers will try to ride the "Bus" to victory. Pittsburgh usually starts to click around this time of the year as they are 8-1 against the spread in October games over the last 3 seasons. Another advantage for the Steelers defense is the field, the Rams are only 2-10 against the spread in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons. Steelers get it done here!
3 STAR: New York Giants (+6) OVER MINNESOTA
The Giants have been very disappointing this season as they continue to find ways to lose a game. Last week was no exception, as they played Philly tough the whole game took the lead late and then blew it by allowing a big kick return. Many people our now sour on the G-Men and will most likely put their money on the undefeated Vikings who are 6-0 both straight up and against the spread. But this is actually a good spot for the Giants to get the cover. In the first eleven weeks of the season, teams that are favored by more than 5 points and are 5-0 straight up and against the spread in their last five games are only 10-31-1 against the spread. The Giants offensive weapons on this team have been silent for a few weeks now, but I think that they break out in this game. Kerry Collins has always put up pretty good numbers against the Vikings and should do so again here. The Giants are 6-1 against the spread after scoring 14 points or less in 3 straight games since 1992 so history suggests that they should get it going in this one. The Vikings offense has been great, but the Giants have held there own against high powered offenses in the past, as they are 5-1 against the spread versus good offensive teams that are averaging 350 or more yards per game over the last 3 seasons. Take the points here!
3 STAR: Cleveland (+5.5) OVER NEW ENGLAND
A good spot here for the Browns in what should be a close, low scoring game. We get a little extra valuse in this line due to the fact that New England won on the road last week against Miami, while Cleveland became the victim for San Diego's first win of the season at home. The Browns matchup well with New England. The Patriots don't have much of a running game, and Cleveland has the #1 ranked pass defense in the league yielding only 148 yards per game. The quarterback situation is up in the air again, but I think either of the two starters should be able to get the job done here. Cleveland has been excellent of the road as of late, they head into Foxboro with 8 wins in their last 11 road games. The Patriots have not done well in this role as a favorite, as they are only 17-33 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992 and they are 1-5 against the spread after an upset win over a division rival as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. Look for the let down here, take the points!
3 STAR: TAMPA BAY (-7) OVER Dallas
The Tuna has Dallas playing very well this season, but it is time for them to come down to earth. Tampa Bay has been inconsistant this season coming in with a 3-3 record, but look for them to get back on track here against the Cowboys. Quincy Carter has been doing a good job for Dallas, but look for his to make mistakes in this game against the Bucs. Dallas has not played a team that has a winning record yet this year, and the inexperience at quarterback will show in this game. The Cowboys spanked the Lions last week, but they are only 2-10 against the spread in road games after a win by 21 or more points since 1992. Tampa is coming off of an upset loss at San Francisco last week in a game in which they were a five point favorite. In their franchise history, Tampa Bay is 14-0 against the spread when they are favored after a straight up loss as a favorite. Tampa Bay is also 10-2 against the spread in the first of two back to back home games. The Bucs roll here!
2003 NFL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 4-5 (-7.5 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 10-12-1 (-9.6 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 6-10-1 (-9.9 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 1-1 (-0.2 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 21-28-2 (-27.2 UNITS)
A $100 player would be down $2720.00
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
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