NCAAF Bowl Season Trends and Indexes 12/20 through 1/8

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NCAAF
Dunkel Index


Friday write-up and pick

Florida Atlantic vs. Central Michigan
The Owls have won their last four ATS on a neutral field and look to take advantage of a Central Michigan team that was just 1-2 ATS as a 3 1/2 to 10-point favorite this season. Florida Atlantic is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Chippewas favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (+7).

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 26

Game 215-216: Florida Atlantic vs. Central Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 76.749; Central Michigan 79.917
Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 3; 48
Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 7; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (+7);

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[pm530]

College Football – Tips and Trends

NCAAF


Saturday, December 27

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Tips and Trends
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Saturday, December 27

Car Care Bowl: West Virginia vs. North Carolina [ESPN | 1 PM ET]

West Virginia (-2, O/U 46): West Virginia comes into Saturday's matchup with a chance to even their all-time record against the Atlantic Coast Conference at 95-95-5. It's been an entirely different story for the Mountaineers in bowl games against the conference, coming in with a dismal 2-9 record in 11 meetings. The senior class should enter highly-motivated, as they've produced a 41-9 four-year record, needing just one more win to break the school record. Leading the way is Pat White, who will be attempting to become the first QB to win four bowl games in four years.

West Virginia is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games vs. ACC.
The UNDER is 6-2 in West Virginia's last 8 non-conference games.

Key Injuries - C Mike Dent (neck) is doubtful.
LB Anthony Leonard (foot) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

North Carolina: North Carolina will feel right at home playing in Charlotte, as the Tar Heels have compiled a spectacular 15-3-2 all-time record in the Queen City. It should certainly feel like a home game with the Meineke Car Care Bowl averaging more than 60,000 fans during its first six years, with two sellouts. Turnovers are certainly going to play a main-factor in this game, with North Carolina possessing a +16 margin in its eight wins and -12 in its four losses.

North Carolina is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games vs. teams with a winning record.
The OVER is 7-2 in North Carolina's last 9 games vs. Big East.

Key Injuries - TE Zack Pianalto (leg) is questionable.
WR Brooks Foster (knee) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24



Champs Sports Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Florida State [ESPN | 4:30 PM ET]

Wisconsin: Wisconsin certainly had high hopes of playing in the Rose Bowl, but the program is pleased to be playing in a school-record seventh straight bowl game. The Badger faithful have grown accustomed to playing close games during the 2008 season, with six of Wisconsin's 12 games being decided by three points or less. The biggest hurdle for head coach Bret Bielema is getting his team motivated in playing a postseason game in the state of Florida for the fifth consecutive year.

Wisconsin is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 non-conference games.
The UNDER is 10-4 in Wisconsin's last 14 non-conference games.

Key Injuries - LB Jonathan Casillas (knee) is OUT.
S Jay Valai (shin) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 28 (Side Play of the Day)

Florida State (-6, O/U 52): Head coach Bobby Bowden can motivate his team in the locker room before Saturday's Champs Sports Bowl by simply mentioning that Florida State has never lost a game in Orlando. The Seminoles bring in a 6-0-2 record in the city that Mickey Mouse calls home and have an 11-9 overall mark against Big Ten schools under Bowden. Hailing from the ACC may add to the Seminoles' dominance in the Sunshine State, as the conference has recorded a 37-11 record against non-conference opponents.

Florida State is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 neutral site games.
The OVER is 7-3 in Florida State's last 10 lined games.

Key Injuries - WR Preston Parker (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24



Emerald Bowl: Miami (Florida) vs. California [ESPN | 8 PM ET]

Miami: This is a very important game for head coach Randy Shannon, as he brings in an even 12-12 record after completing his second year at Miami. The Hurricanes are 8-2 in their last 10 bowl appearances, including a 21-20 win over Nevada in the 2006 MPC Computers Bowl. Shannon can drill home the fact that the last time Miami played a bowl game in the state of California was in 2002, when the proud-program picked up a 37-14 victory over Nebraska to win the school's fifth national championship. The Hurricanes have suspended five players for this game but only QB Robert Marve is notable. Jacory Harris will start in Marve's place.

Miami is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on field turf.
The UNDER is 6-2 in Miami's last 8 bowl games.

Key Injuries - QB Robert Marve (academics) is OUT.
WR Travis Benjamin (ankle) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20

Cal (-10, O/U 50.5): Bowl berths are now expected in Berkeley since head coach Jeff Tedford arrived on campus, but the school isn't far removed from earning just five bowl bids in the 48 years prior to his arrival. Cal is 4-1 in the postseason under Tedford, including three straight wins that have seen the Bears' offense score at least 35 points in each contest. Running back Jahvid Best leads this year's attack, as he's averaging an amazing 8.0 yards per carry, which is the highest in school history for a leading rusher.

Cal is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games as a favorite.
The OVER is 8-2-1 in Cal's last 11 non-conference games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 31

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College Football – Write up

NCAAF
Write-up

Saturday, December 27

Meineke Car Care Bowl, Charlotte

Butch Davis is 4-0 in bowl games; his Tar Heels are in bowl for the first time since 2004, a 37-24 loss to Boston College in this bowl. .Carolina only has 11 seniors on squad, whch trailed in six of its eight wins, three times by double digits, and played thru losing QB Yates (broken ankle). UNC scored 17-13-15-10 points in its losses this season, 28+ in all eight of its wins- underdogs are 7-4 vs spread in its games. One red flag for the Tar Heels is the 326-195-187 rushing yards they gave up in consecutive November games to Georgia Tech, Boston College and NC State.
West Virginia played in major bowls (Gator-Sugar-Fiesta) the last five years, scoring 38-38-48 points in winning its last three bowls-- they held eight of last ten opponents under 20 points, but are one-dimensional on offense-- you worry about those kind of teams because of the extra prep time in bowls. WVa picked off nine passes in its last five games, with a +12 turnover ratio for season. Major red flag for West Virginia is despite having experienced QB, they're 0-3 in games decided by less than 6 pts.

Big East teams are 1-4 in this bowl, with West Virginia losing 48-22 to in first-ever Car Care Bowl. ACC teams are 5-1 in tis bowl, played in heart of ACC country, but Tar Heels were only loser, dropping this game four years ago. Coaching edge goes to Davis; QB edge goes to WVa's White, both teams should have a lot of fans, though with game in ACC country, Tar Heels figure to have slight edge. Key question is can Carolina score against Mountaineer defense that shut down most of Big East? .

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College Football – Write up

NCAAF
Write-up

Saturday, December 27

Champs Sports Bowl, Orlando

Florida State was erratic down stretch, going 2-3 in last five games, with Maryland only team they held under 27 points. FSU is 3-3 vs spread as favorite. Seminoles are just 2-3 in their last five bowls; this is first time in three years they're playing bowl in Florida, although they wanted to be in Gator Bowl, not this game. ACC teams are 20-11 vs spread in non-league games, 12-8 as a favorite, 9-5 at home.

Wisconsin is visiting Orlando in bowl season for third time in last four years, but first two were Jan 1 bowls; they are 2-3 in last five bowls, all played vs SEC teams- they covered three of last four. Badgers scored a total of 40 points against Penn State/Iowa/Ohio State, best defenses on their schedule. Wisconsin needed OT beat I-AA Cal Poly 36-35 in their last game- they're 2-3 as underdog this season.

ACC teams won their last five visits to this bowl, with only one of the wins by less than nine points; Big 11 teams are 0-2 in this bowl, losing by 24-7/24-21 scores. Florida State is by far better team here, but have to question whether they're excited to be in Orlando- their erratic play in November is an issue. ACC favorites are 13-8 vs spread in non-league games this season-- would think Seminoles are the right side here.



Emerald Bowl, San Francisco

Miami started season 2-3, then won five games in row, four by six pts or less, then lost its last two, giving up 41-38 points to Ga Tech, NC State. 'canes won't have their QB or punt snapper here; they are among the five Hurricanes suspended for this game. 'canes are 2-5 vs bowl teams, 1-6 vs spread this season- they have 20 freshmen/sophs in their top 44 players. ACC underdogs are 8-3 vs spread this season, 4-0 in road games.

Cal might be lucky they're playing close to home, since they lost the last four road games, albeit all four were against bowl teams- they ran ball for 718 yards in last two games, vs Stanford/Washington. Bears are +16 in turnovers this year. Pac-10 favorites are 14-9 vs spread this season, 11-2 at home. Cal is 8-2 vs spread as a favorite. Longshore is starting at QB for Bears, who are 4-1 in bowls under Tedford (3-2 vs spread).

Underdogs covered four of last five Emerald Bowls, with Pac-10 teams 1-1 in their two visits; for Cal, it is basically home game, and they were damn good at home this year. Very tough for young team to go into bowl without its QB, especially when Miami defense gave up 472-219 rushing yards in its last two games. Cal has a diverse offense, so they could light up scoreboard here. Not fond of laying big numbers in bowls, but Miami has too many distractions to make them live in this game.

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[pm530]

College Football – Tips and Trends

NCAAF


Monday, December 29

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Tips and Trends
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PapaJohn's.com Bowl: Rutgers vs. N.C. State [ESPN | 3 PM ET]

Rutgers (-6.5, O/U 56): The Scarlet Knights are going to their fourth straight bowl game after winning six straight games to close out the regular season following a 1-5 start. Rutgers QB Mike Teel rebounded from a rough beginning to the year and is coming off a school-record 447 passing yards and seven touchdowns in a 63-14 shellacking of Louisville. “Mike Teel is an incredible competitor,” Scarlet Knights head coach Greg Schiano said. “I think he had a tough start to the season, as we all did here at Rutgers, but I think Mike’s perseverance and his toughness showed through.”

Rutgers is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games overall.
The OVER is 4-1 in Rutgers' last 5 games overall.

Key Injuries - DE Jamaal Westerman (biceps) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 35 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

N.C. State: The Wolfpack is riding a four-game winning streak into Birmingham thanks to the improved play of redshirt QB Russell Wilson, who has thrown a school-record 226 passes without an interception. “I’m just excited about the bowl game," Wilson said I’m just excited about going in here and playing against a Rutgers team that is playing real well right now.” N.C. State also head coach Tom O'Brien owns a streak of seven straight bowl wins - all with Boston College - heading into this game.

N.C. State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall.
The OVER is 6-3 in N.C. State's last 9 games overall.

Key Injuries - DB Clem Johnson (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 28



Alamo Bowl: #21 Missouri vs. #23 Northwestern [ESPN | 8 PM ET]

Missouri (-12.5, O/U 66.5): The Tigers are looking to post back-to-back 10-win seasons for the first time in school history, a goal that is still in focus for QB Chase Daniel after their disappointing finish. “It’s going to sting for a while and why wouldn’t it?” Daniel said . “But we can finish off in style. When was the last time a Missouri team won 10 games back-to-back in history? Never. We still have a chance to make history.” Daniel threw just one interception during a 5-0 start for Mizzou but threw 14 the rest of the way to finish with a Big 12-high 15.

Missouri is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games overall.
The OVER is 7-3 in Missouri's last 10 neutral site games.

Key Injuries - S William Moore (ribs) is probable.
CB Castine Bridges (knee) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 38

Northwestern: The Wildcats have not won a postseason game since 1949 when they beat Cal in the Rose Bowl. However, they also have the opportunity to finish with 10 wins and become only the second team in school history to accomplish that feat, possibly joining head coach Pat Fitzgerald's 1995 Rose Bowl team. “I think, if anything, (the bowl drought) will provide a little extra motivation,” Northwestern QB C.J. Bacher said. “At the beginning of the year we set out to win a bowl game and we’ve put ourselves in a position to do that.”

Northwestern is 3-1 SU & ATS in its last 4 games overall.
The UNDER is 4-1 in Northwestern's last 5 games overall.

Key Injuries - RB Terrell Sutton (wrist) is probable.
DE Vince Browne (knee) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 31 (Side Play of the Day)

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College Football – Write up

NCAAF
Write-up

Monday, December 29

Papajohn's.com Bowl, Birmingham

Tom O'Brien won his last six bowls while coaching Boston College; his NC State Wolfpack won their last four, covered their last seven games. Wolfpack won their last three bowls, but last one was three years ago, when Amato was still State's coach. Freshman Wilson is excellent QB; once he got healthy, Pack went on roll, scoring 79 points in last couple games, wins over North Carolina (41-10), Miami (38-28). State is 9-1 vs spread as an underdog; they're +11 in turnovers this season. Wolfpack lost to South Florida, a team Rutgers pounded.

Rutgers has senior QB, hot team; they won last six games, covered last nine; this is their fourth bowl in row, going 2-1 in series of high scoring games (40-45 vs Arizona State (+9), 37-10 vs Kansas State (-8.5) and 52-30 vs Ball State LY (-10.5). Scarlet Knights' last five wins are all by 18+ points; after horrible start, when they were -8 in turnovers, Rutgers was +6 rest of the way. When they beat Pitt 54-34 October 25, Teel had five TD passes....at halftime. Knights did lose 44-12 to North Carolina of ACC, a team NC State crushed.

Nothing says bowl season like a Monday afternoon in Birmingham, as two of nation's hottest teams match up. Big East favorites are 9-13 vs spread out of conference, 3-6 on the road. ACC underdogs are 8-3 vs spread, 5-0 away from home. ACC teams are 2-2 so far in bowls so far this season. Big East teams are 2-0. Senior QB vs freshman QB is pretty big advantage Rutgers, but O'Brien is better than Schiano as a coach. In a game with two lives teams, prefer the underdog.


Alamo Bowl, San Antonio

Northwestern is 9-3, scoring 21+ points in eight wins; they were held to 20-19-10 points in its losses, by 17-2-35 points. Unlike most teams in bowls, Wildcats had -5 turnover ratio. This is Fitzgerald's first bowl as head coach, after taking over for deceased Walker before 2006 season. Wildcats haven't won a bowl since the 40's, losing bowls over the last 13 years by 9-20-49-4-12 points (1-4 vs spread). Big 11 underdogs are 2-3 vs spread this season. Northwestern has a senior QB, which helps.

Missouri has been amazingly consistent in bowls, scoring 38-38-38 pts in last three bowls, going 2-1 SU, 3-0 vs spread; average total in bowls under Pinkel is 58. They crushed Arkansas 38-7 in Cotton Bowl a year ago, but this season has been disappointment for Mizzou, going 4-4 in last eight games after 5-0 start, losing last two games to Kansas (40-37). Oklahoma (62-21). Six of last seven Missouri wins are by 17+ points. Big 12 favorites are 14-9 vs spread out of conference, 7-2 on the road.

Double digit underdogs in non-January 1 bowls have traditionally been a strong play, but can Northwestern stifle powerful Missouri offense??? Are Mizzou players happy to be here? Big 12 favorites are 2-5 vs the spread in the Alamo Bowl, with Big 11 squads 7-5 SU vs Big 12 teams in Alamodome. Big 12 teams are 12-19 vs spread in non-conference tilts. Don't like laying double digits in bowls; would lean to the over here.

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[pm530]

College Football - Dunkel Index

NCAAF
Dunkel Index


Tuesday write-up and pick

Oregon vs. Oklahoma State
The Cowboys come in with a 12-6 ATS record in bowl games, including 7-1-1 as a favorite. Oklahoma State is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Cowboys favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-3).

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 30

Game 229-230: Nevada vs. Maryland
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 90.032; Maryland 87.164
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 3; 52
Vegas Line: Nevada by 1; 58
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (-1); Under

Game 231-232: Western Michigan vs. Rice
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 84.470; Rice 83.031
Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 1 1/2; 77
Vegas Line: Rice by 3; 73
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (+3); Over

Game 233-234: Oregon vs. Oklahoma State
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 100.205; Oklahoma State 106.039
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 6; 82
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 3; 76 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-3); Over

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College Football – Write up

NCAAF
Write-up

Tuesday, December 30

After today's bowls, bowl season is half over; 17 down, 17 to go.

Humanitarian Bowl, Boise
Long way for Maryland to travel to play WAC team on a Tuesday; they were 4-1 at one point, with wins over Cal, Clemson, but lost three of last four games, scoring just 13.5 ppg- they were outscored 67-23 in the first half of those games. Favorites are 4-1 vs spread in Maryland's bowls in Friedgen era, with Terps winning three of last four- they lost 21-14 LY in San Francisco, against Oregon State in Emerald Bowl. Terps had only one INT in their last seven games, bad news against a WAC team.

Nevada is in fourth straight bowl, splitting pair of one-point games, then getting shut out 23-0 by New Mexico in Albuquerque LY; they lost in this game to Miami two years ago, 21-20. Wolf Pack allowed an average of 46.2 ppg in their five losses, 19.6 in their wins- they had +8 turnover ratio in their last four games, with only one giveaway. Nevada lost 35-19 at home to Texas Tech this year (+9.5), 69-17 at Missouri (+26)- only two of its twelve games this season were decided by less than 7 points.

Three of last four Humanitarian Bowls were won by six points or less, with ACC teams 3-2 in last five visits here. WAC teams are 1-3 in bowls this season, with Louisiana Tech winning a home game in Shreveport Sunday; they're 12-23 vs spread in non-conference games this season. ACC teams are 2-3 in bowls this season after Papajohn's Bowl Monday they're 23-12 vs spread in non-conference games this season. WAC clubs are 7-3 vs spread in this game the last ten seasons. Good game to pass.

Texas Bowl, Houston
Western Michigan lost 27-24 to Cincinnati in International Bowl couple years ago, their first bowl since '88, and fourth overall (0-3); Broncos are 9-3, upsetting Illinois 23-17 at Ford Field in November +7.5); in last two years, they've lost at West Virginia (62-24), Missouri (52-24), and 47-24 at Nebraska-- they upset Iowa 28-19 at end of last season. Sicne this is a road games basically, we see Western is 3-3 on road, and gave up 47-38- 45 points in their losses this season.

Rice's QB combo of Clement/Dillard has 50 TD passes, most in history of college football; they're both seniors, looking to go out the right way in front of home fans. Owls last won a bowl when they beat Alabama in Cotton Bowl, way back in 1955, beating Bart starr's Alabama team. Rice lost in New Orleans Bowl 41-17 to Troy two years ago, which was their first bowl since '61. Rice won its last six games (5-1 vs spread), scoring an average of 46.2 ppg. They try to outscore you.

Favorites won all seven Texas Bowls SU, going 4-1-2 vs spread- game is in Houston; teams from Texas are 4-1 in this bowl, 3-1-1 vs spread, with average total of 50.5 in last six. Neither side here has any experience with this bowl thing. Teams' profiles are similar; both sides have experienced QBs, haven't played in many bowls, are excited to be here. Raines is a senior LB for Rice who had a broekn arm, and career was supposed to be over, but he's come back and played last few games. Lean to Rice here.

Holiday Bowl, San Diego
Oklahoma State was 7-0 before 28-24 loss at Texas; they finished 2-3 in last five games, also losing 56-20 at Texas Tech, 61-41 vs Oklahoma; in their last four games, Cowboys were outscored 99-54 in the second half. OSU won its last two bowls, 34-31/49-33; this figures to be like most of the Holiday Bowls have been; high scoring games that go down to wire. Big 12 teams are 14-10 as favorites this season, 7-3 on road. Missouri's lost last night was first Big 12 bowl game this season.

Oregon won three in row, five of last six games, running ball for average of 276 yards/game over their last six games. Despite having QB issues, starting four different guys for second year in a row; they scored 35-55 and 65 points in their last three games, last two of which were vs bowl teams (Arizona/Oregon State). Ducks crushed South Florida 56-21 LY in Sun Bowl, ending 4+-game losing streak in bowls- this is fourth year in a row in a bowl for Oregon, and sixth in last seven seasons.

Big 12 teams are 2-6 vs spread as favorites in Holiday Bowl, which has an average total of 63.3 the last eight years. Oregon lost to Oklahoma in this game three years ago, beat Texas five years before that. This is the first Holiday Bowl in 20 years for OSU. Can Cowboys slow down run game of Oregon? Can Ducks stop Cowboys' passing game? History of Holiday Bowl is for lots of scoring and close games. Oregon was +10 in turnovers the last five games, after being -5 in first four. Exciting game.

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College Football – Tips and Trends

NCAAF


Tuesday, December 30

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Tips and Trends
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Humanitarian Bowl: Maryland vs. Nevada [ESPN | 4:30 PM ET]

Maryland: Some may doubt the motivation of the Terrapins in this game after they had a shot at the Orange Bowl but dropped three of four to end the regular season. However, Maryland senior defensive lineman Jeremy Navarre said he and his teammates will go all out in their final game. “I’m just happy I’m not going to be sitting at home during Christmas break watching other guys play,” Navarre said. “You’ve got to take what you get. I’m happy we’re still practicing, to be honest with you.”

Maryland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games overall.
The UNDER is 6-2 in Maryland's last 8 games overall.

Key Injuries - WR Derrius Heyward-Bay (leg) is probable.
LB Rick Costa (suspension) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24

Nevada (-1.5, O/U 58.5): The Wolf Pack have a unique coaching advantage in that Maryland's former defensive coordinator Chris Cosh left to take over that same job at Kansas State. Linebackers coach Al Seamonson takes over for Cosh and will try to stop one of the nation's top offenses, and that has Terrapins head coach Ralph Friedgen worried. “I see that they’re second in the country in rushing, and they have two 1,000-yard rushers,” Friedgen said. “They’ve played some really good football teams, so I think they’re a very, very good football team.”

Nevada is 3-1 SU in its last 4 games overall.
The OVER is 4-1 in Nevada's last 5 games overall.

Key Injuries - LB Joshua Mauga (pectoral) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 34 (Side Play of the Day)



Holiday Bowl: #13 Oklahoma State vs.#17 Oregon [ESPN | 8 PM ET]

Oklahoma State (-2.5, O/U 76): The last time the Cowboys were in the Holiday Bowl, head coach Mike Gundy was the star QB leading his team to a 62-14 win over Wyoming. That was 20 years ago, and Gundy will become the first coach and player to participate in the Holiday Bowl. “We’re very excited about heading to San Diego for the Pacific Life Holiday Bowl,” Gundy said. “It was a tremendous experience for me as a player and I’m happy our team will get to enjoy San Diego and the festivities that surround a great bowl game. We look forward to playing an excellent Oregon team.”

Oklahoma State is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games overall.
The UNDER is 3-1 in Oklahoma State's last 4 road games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 41

Oregon: Like Maryland in the Humanitarian Bowl, Oklahoma State will be playing without its defensive coordinator, as Tim Beckman took the head coaching job at Toledo. However, Ducks head coach Mike Bellotti believes this game will still be decided by defense despite two high-scoring offenses being showcased on the field. “We can talk about the offenses coming in but I have a feeling well be talking about the defenses going out,” said Bellotti.

Oregon is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games overall.
The UNDER is 11-4-1 in Oregon's last 16 games on grass.

Key Injuries - LB Terrell Turner (knee) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 37



Texas Bowl: Western Michigan vs. Rice [NFL | 8 PM ET]

Western Michigan: The Broncos have lost all three of their previous bowl games and hope to come through with a victory this time around behind one of the top passing offenses in the country. Western Michigan was ranked 10th nationally in passing offense (301.2 yards per game) led by QB Tim Hiller and WR Jamarko Simmons. The problem is, Rice ranks fifth in the nation in passing offense with QB Chase Clement setting conference career marks for touchdown passes (96) and total TDs (120).

Western Michigan is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games overall.
The OVER is 9-1 in Western Michigan's last 10 games as an underdog.

Key Injuries - CB Londen Fryar (toe) is probable.
TE Branden Ledbetter (abdominal) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 42 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

Rice (-2.5, O/U 74): The Owls will be looking for their first bowl victory since 1954 and try to reach 10 wins for just the second time in school history. Rice has outscored its opponents by an average of 13.5 points during a six-game winning streak. “In this one game, we can accomplish so much more than just one win,” said second-year head coach David Bailiff, who was named Conference USA Coach of the Year.

Rice is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record.
The OVER is 13-3 in Rice's last 16 games as a favorite.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 45

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College Football – Tips and Trends

NCAAF


Wednesday, December 31

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Tips and Trends
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Wednesday, December 31

Armed Forces Bowl: Houston vs. Air Force [ESPN | 12 PM ET]

Houston (-3.5, O/U 64.5): The Cougars get another crack at the Falcons after losing the first-ever meeting back on September 13th, 31-28. That game was moved from Houston to SMU following Hurricane Ike, and many of the team's players were distracted by what happened. “It was just every different possibility, every different circumstance that could happen before a game happened,” said Cougars QB Case Keenum. Houston will be trying to win their first bowl game in 28 years despite making four straight postseason appearances.

Houston is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games vs. teams with a winning record.
The OVER is 3-0 in Houston's last 3 games overall.

Key Injuries - LB Matt Nicholson (knee) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 34

Air Force: The Falcons were a much different team the last time they met the Cougars, mainly because freshman QB Tim Jefferson wasn't under center. Jefferson took over midway through the season and ended up going 5-2 as a starter, becoming just the fourth freshman QB in school history. “It was a group that in mid-August, fortunately we didn’t have to play games then,” Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun said. “We didn’t have a single returning starter at the skill positions. In a lot of ways, we’re still continuing to grow. Once they start shaving, we’ll be a better football team next year.”

Air Force is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games vs. Conference USA.
The OVER is 3-0 in Air Force's last 3 games overall.

Key Injuries - FB Todd Newell (ankle) is questionable.
WR Kyle Halderman (mononucleosis) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 31



Sun Bowl: Oregon State vs. #20 Pittsburgh [CBS | 2 PM ET]

Oregon State (-2.5, O/U 52): The Beavers hope to have freshman RB Jacquizz Rodgers back from a shoulder injury after he missed their biggest game of the season against Oregon in the annual Civil War. A win in that game would have given the team a berth in the Rose Bowl, but Oregon State was out-rushed 385-89 by the Ducks in a 65-38 loss. “There will be some residual effect from (not winning that game), but this is no time for babies,” Beavers head coach Mike Riley said. “We can’t whine about that anymore, we’re going to have to get ready to go.”

Oregon State is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games on turf.
The OVER is 6-2 in Oregon State's last 8 December games.

Key Injuries - RB Jeremy Francis (personal) is probable.
RB Jacquizz Rodgers (shoulder) is doubtful.
RB James Rodgers (collarbone) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27

Pitt: While Rodgers is the key to Oregon State's offensive attack, the Panthers have one of the top running backs in the country in LeSean McCoy, who rushed for more yards than any freshman player in the country last year. McCoy followed that up with a very productive sophomore season, rushing for 1,403 yards and 21 touchdowns. “That guy is good. He is going to be playing on Sundays,” Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo said. “Don’t be surprised to see him in Honolulu (in the Pro Bowl) in a few years. He is as good a back as we have seen all year.”

Pitt is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on turf.
The UNDER is 7-3 in Pitt's last 10 games as an underdog.

Key Injuries - DL Tommie Duhart (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24



Music City Bowl: #24 Boston College vs. Vanderbilt [ESPN | 3:30 PM ET] | Full Matchup

Boston College (-3.5, O/U 41): The Eagles own the nation's longest bowl winning streak at eight straight and will look to win nine in a row with backup QB Dominique Davis, who replaced Chris Crane after he broke his collarbone in a win over Wake Forest on November 22nd. This time last year, BC had NFL Rookie of the Year Matt Ryan under center, but head coach Jeff Jagodzinski is simply looking to rebound from a loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC title game for the second year in a row. “We fell a little bit short, but it takes nothing away from what these guys accomplished this year,” Jagodzinski said. “They kept battling. It didn’t go our way.”

Boston College is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 bowl games.
The OVER is 7-2 in Boston College's last 9 games overall.

Key Injuries - CB Kevin Akins (ankle) is probable.
RB Josh Haden (shoulder) is probable.
QB Chris Crane (collarbone) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 23

Vanderbilt: The Commodores are playing their first bowl game in 26 years and have not earned a postseason victory since the 1955 Gator Bowl. Vandy got off to a 5-0 start but struggled down the stretch, dropping five of six but still became bowl eligible with a 31-24 win over Kentucky on November 15th. “We are really thankful that a lot of our fans will be able to get here for the game and hopefully a lot of our out-of-town fans will load up the car or get on the plane and head to Nashville,” Commodores head coach Bobby Johnson said. “It has been a long time and awful lot of hard work, so we’re excited.”

Vanderbilt is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games vs. teams with a winning record.
The UNDER is 7-2 in Vanderbilt's last 9 games overall.

Key Injuries - RB Jared Hawkins (foot) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20



Insight Bowl: Kansas vs. Minnesota [NFL | 6 PM ET]

Kansas (-9, O/U 58): The Jayhawks may be bowling in consecutive years for the first time in school history, but they have much higher hopes of winning two straight postseason games. Kansas finished 12-1 a year ago but stumbled down the stretch this season, losing four of six. Regardless, one of the team's goals can still be achieved with a victory. “To have the chance to win back-to-back bowls is something that we want to go out with," Jayhawks offensive lineman Adrian Mayes said. "It is really important for us to get this win.”

Kansas is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games vs. teams with a winning record.
The OVER is 5-1 in Kansas' last 6 games overall.

Key Injuries - CB Justin Thornton (suspension) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 38 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

Minnesota: The Golden Gophers had a much different season than Kansas last year, going 1-11 under first-year head coach Tim Brewster. They started 2008 much differently though, bolting out to a 7-1 start before dropping four in a row to finish 3-5 in Big Ten play. “I could not be more proud of what our team has accomplished this season and I am thrilled that all their hard work is being rewarded,” Brewster said. “It’s really clear in my mind what we need to do to improve as a football team and to compete at the highest level.”

Minnesota is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games overall.
The OVER is 8-1 in Minnesota's last 9 non-conference games.

Key Injuries - WR Eric Decker (ankle) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 28



Chick-Fil-A Bowl: LSU vs. #14 Georgia Tech [ESPN | 7:30 PM ET]

LSU: The defending national champions will be playing in their ninth straight bowl and have won three in a row, also going 4-0 all-time in this particular game. While this might seem like a disappointment after beating Ohio State in last year's BCS title game, head coach Les Miles doesn't seem to feel that way. “This is an outstanding bowl to go to,” Miles said. “It will be on national television on New Year’s Eve. It has no competition for air time so a lot of America will be watching the game. I think it’s going to be a really outstanding game, but I feel really confident that our team is going to step up and play really well and be really motivated.”

LSU is 5-16-1 ATS in its last 22 games overall.
The OVER is 15-5 in LSU's last 20 games overall.

Key Injuries - QB Jarrett Lee (knee) is probable but will not start.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17

Georgia Tech (-4, O/U 42): Yellow Jackets head coach Paul Johnson was rewarded for an outstanding season with a new 7-year deal worth $17.7 million, and he would love nothing more than to finish off his first year with a bowl victory. “We realize LSU is going to be a formidable challenge,” Johnson said. “They’re one year removed from being a national championship team. They’ve got a great tradition and a great history.” Johnson was named ACC Coach of the Year after his team finished third in the country in rushing with 282.3 yards per game.

Georgia Tech is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall.
The OVER is 3-1 in Georgia Tech's last 4 games overall.

Key Injuries - LB Shane Bowen (neck) is OUT.
LB Sedric Griffin (knee) is probable.
CB Jahi Word-Daniels (hamstring) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (Side Play of the Day)

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[pm530]

College Football - Dunkel Index

NCAAF
Dunkel Index


Wednesday write-up and pick

Boston College vs. Vanderbilt
Boston College was 3-0 ATS this season in non-conference games, while Vanderbilt was 0-2 ATS versus the ACC. The Eagles are the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has BC favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Boston College (-3 1/2).

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31

Game 235-236: Air Force vs. Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 86.579; Houston 92.940
Dunkel Line: Houston by 6 1/2; 70
Vegas Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 64
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-2 1/2); Over

Game 237-238: Pittsburgh vs. Oregon State
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 97.632; Oregon State 99.181
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 1 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 3; 53
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+3); Under

Game 239-240: Boston College vs. Vanderbilt
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 96.773; Vanderbilt 88.671
Dunkel Line: Boston College by 8; 45 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston College by 3 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (-3 1/2); Over

Game 241-242: Minnesota vs. Kansas
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 80.520; Kansas 96.565
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 16; 66
Vegas Line: Kansas by 10; 58
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-10); Over

Game 243-244: LSU at Georgia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: LSU 92.547; Georgia Tech 99.626
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 7; 47
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 3 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (-3 1/2); Under

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[pm530]

College Football – Write up

NCAAF
Write-up

Wednesday, December 31

Bowl season is half over; 17 down, 17 to go.

Armed Forces Bowl, Fort Worth
Houston lost 31-28 to Air Force in September, in game that was moved to Dallas because of Hurricane Ike, and was played in front of 2,00 or so hardy souls on a rainy day. Falcons ran ball for 380 yards, were 12-20 in third down conversions, and won despite going 0-7 passing for game. On year, Air Force is 8-4, 2-4 vs bowl teams (they also beat Colorado State 38-17). Flyboys didn't have negative turnover ratio in any game all year, are +12 for season- they gave up 30+ points in all four losses. .

Houston is 0-8 in bowl games since 1980, losing last three years by 29-8-7 points, giving up 35.3 ppg. Cougars trailed that game in Dallas 31-7 before wild rally fell just short; they were 34-57/362 passing in the rain, so you figure they can put up huge numbers on nice day. Houston had a -9 turnover ratio this year- they lost their first three games vs D-I foes, then went 6-2 in C-USA, losing only to Rice (56-42), Marshall (37-23). In their last four games, Houston scored 42-70-42-42 points, so they'll be hard to stop with surprisingly balanced offense.

Air Force lost 42-36 to Cal in this bowl LY, after their QB got hurt; that was Falcons' first bowl game since '02. Just like Navy-Wake Forest tilt, you know you're going to get solid effort from service academy team, but it is really hard to beat same team twice in same season in college ball, so would think high-powered Houston is the way to go here. Look for the Cougars to snap their long bowl losing streak, just like Notre Dame last week. Coach Sumlin gets a bowl win in his first bowl as a head coach.


Sun Bowl, El Paso
Oregon State just gave coach Riley extension thru 2015 season, after his Beavers came within one game of going to first Rose Bowl in 43 years-- they beat USC, after starting season 0-2, losing 36-28 at Stanford, then 45-14 at Penn State. OSU won eight of nine after Penn State loss, losing on late FG at unbeaten Utah (31-28), then got trounced 65-38 at home in finale vs Oregon, when Rose Bowl was on line. Riley won his last four bowl games, scoring 38.3 ppg- they beat Missouri here 39-38 in 2006.

Pitt's last bowl win was 38-13 vs Oregon State in '02 Insight Bowl, only time these teams have met (Dennis Erickson's last game with Beavers)-- Panthers lost in bowls two years after that, and haven't been back since. All that was with Walt Harris as coach-- this is Wannstedt's first bowl game as a head coach. Panthers opened season losing to Bowling Green, but won four of last five games-- they went 7-2 vs bowl teams, so they played lot of good teams this year. Pitt has a -4 turnover ratio for year.
Underdog covered nine of last ten Sun Bowls, with underdog 7-5 SU in last 12; average total in last seven bowls is 68.4. Both head coaches have been head men in NFL, with Riley having been head coach in CFL, NFL (Chargers) and World League-- he won two Grey Cups in Winnipeg, and may be one of most underrated coaches in country, with 4-0 bowl mark. Wannstedt is famous for being an assistant under Jimmy Johnson with the Cowboys, but his head coaching career has been far less impressive. I am thinking Oregon State is the right side in this game.


Music City Bowl, Nashville
Vanderbilt is playing in first bowl since '82, and is playing at home, after a 6-6 season where they started out 5-0, then lost next four games, losing 17-14 to Miss State, 10-7 to Duke, before winning 31-24 at Kentucky, a win that made them bowl eligible, but they lost to Tennessee and Wake Forest in last two games, making them 1-6 in last seven, scoring 14 pts or less in seven of their last eight games. Commodores were +9 in TOs in their 5-0 start (four of five wins were upsets), were -3 after that. Vandy is 3-3 this season against teams that went to bowl games. .

Boston College won its last eight bowls, covering six; they've played 10 games vs bowl teams this season (played Va Tech twice), scoring nine TDs on defense/special teams. Eagles were +8 in turnovers in their first four games, then -9 in next three, then +8 from that point on, +7 for the year- they only had 10 starters back this season, but overachieved once again. BC is 1-4 as road favorite this year, and this is road game, playing in same city as Vandy, even if it isn't in their stadium. .

Commodores waited 26 years to get back to a bowl, and didn't even get a road trip out of it, but make no mistake, they're excited to be playing in postseason. Vandy's offensive line lost all five starters from LY, has just four seniors who start, so it is surprising they're here. Coach Johnson is dead ringer for Steve Martin-- he won '01 national title in I-AA, so he's no jerk. Vandy has shaky QB play, so they'll be conservative. BC leads nation with 26 INTs, but has shaky kicking game. This is the #1 bowl team in country (8 wins in row) vs a bowl neophyte. Take the dog.


Insight Bowl, Tucson
Two years ago, Minnesota was here, blew 31-point lead to Texas Tech, lost 44-41, and Glen Mason (who came to Minnesota from Kansas) was fired. Gophers were then 1-11 LY, so you know they're damn happy to be here, despite losing last four games after a 7-1 start. After allowing an average of 17.1 ppg in first eight games, they gave up 35.8 ppg in the last four games, which culminated with 55-0 debacle at home vs Iowa in the regular season finale. Everything turned an a hideous INT for TD they threw in last minute of Game 9 vs Northwestern, which cost them that game, and sent the season spiraling in a negative direction.

Kansas started year 5-1, losing tough Friday night game 37-34 down at South Florida, then limped home 2-4, giving up 35+ points in five of the six games- they did upset Missouri 40-37 in rivalry game at Arrowhead, but still, they had 12 takeaways in last four games and still allowed an average of 34.5 ppg, so you know they rarely forced a punt. Jayhawks are 3-3 vs spread as favorite this season. They became unbalanced late in season, running ball 56 times, throwing it 101 in last two games- they do have very good QB in smallish Reesing.

This is one bowl I'm glad is on NFL Network, not the best matchup, but t should be wide open at least; Kansas' defense got worn down in second half of both games and season- they gave up an average of 24.8 ppg, just in second half of games in last six contests. Minnesota is 4-1 vs spread as a dog this season-- I'm thinking in a game between two very mediocre teams, grabbing big spread is a wise thing to do.


Chick-fil-A Bowl, Atlanta
LSU had disappointing 7-5 season, going 3-5 in last eight games, and in one of the wins, they trailed 31-3 with 2:00 left in third quarter, vs Troy State. In all that, only one team (Florida) ran ball for more than 138 yds against them, so will be interesting to see hwo the option does against them. LSU just signed John Chavis to be the new defensive coordinator, so they're still going thru chaos as the bowl approaches, with this year's defensive coordinators off to other, less prominent coaching jobs. Tigers are 2-6 against the spread this season when favored.

Georgia Tech is at home in Atlanta, with their funky option offense that racked up 288-326-472-409 rushing yards in its last four games, with the four opponents Florida St-UNC-Miami-Georgia, all bowl teams, so this is a powerful offense, but LSU had time to prepare for it. Johnson was 2-0 vs spread as a bowl underdog at Navy (2-2 SU), losing last two by a combined total of four points to BC, Utah- he beat New Mexico 34-19, Colorado State 1-30 two years before that, but he's in deeper water here, against the Bayou Bengals. Tech was 3-1 as an underdog this season.

LSU went 7-5 this season without a major college QB, due to transfer of Perrilloux to I-AA school after numerous suspensions; hard to imagine a program like LSU getting stuck without a QB, but they did. Les Miles won and covered all three of his bowls at LSU, winning by the scores of 40-3/41-14/38-24; he knows how to win big games, but his Tigers have been disappointing, and this is road game for them in Atlanta, against a prolific running game. LSU is 0-6 vs spread in last six games, losing last two in regular season for first time since '81. Lean to Georgia Tech.

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[pm530]

College Football – Write up

NCAAF
Write-up

Thursday, January 1

Outback Bowl, Tampa
Iowa didn't go bowling LY, and lost previous two bowls, 31-24/26-24, as underdogs covered their last three bowls. Hawkeyes lost three games in a row at one point, by total of nine points, but they won last five of their last six games, including last three in row, with an upset over Penn State and 55-0 win at Minnesota. Iowa was -2 in turnovers their six games this season, but were +8 in second half of year, picking off nine passes in the last five games. Greene in only RB in America to gain 100+ yards in all 12 games this season, so key for Gamecocks will be to contain him.

South Carolina won four of its last five bowls, with underdogs covering four of the five games; the two bowls under Spurrier were 31-38/44-36 games, wouldn't expect that kind of game here, as Carolina OL wasn't a great unit, and offense suffered, scoring 17 or less points in all five of its losses (they scored 23+ points in all seven wins). Gamecocks got killed in its last two games, 56-6 at Florida, 31-14 at Clemson, so chance here to wash was the bitter taste of those two setbacks. Carolina is 1-2-1 vs spread this season when an underdog.

Rumors started to surface last night that Kirk Ferentz will be coach of the Browns if Cleveland hires Scott Pioli as its GM; not sure if that has any effect on this bowl, but it can't help. Big 11 teams lost three of last four Outback Bowls, with Iowa losing here 31-24 to Florida three years ago. South Carolina released its QB coach, OL coach after regular season but any 7-5 college team is going to have issues like that. Favorites were 8-3-1 vs spread in Iowa games this season. Would lean to the under.


Gator Bowl, Jacksonville
Clemson was 3-4 at one point with an interim coach after Bowden was canned, but Swinney rallied Tigers to 4-1 finish, good enough to get him the job fulltime- they picked off nine passes in last three games, had +7 turnover ratio in those games, after being -9 over first nine games. Tigers were held to 17 or less points in their four losses, and a 13-3 win against Virginia- they scored 27+ points in the other seven games. Tigers are 2-4 vs spread as a favorite, but covered both times with Swinney as HC.

Nebraska lost three games in row at one point, allowing 41.3 ppg, then finished on 5-1 run, scoring 47 ppg in winning last three games, but they also allowed 31+ points in three of last four games- if they can't contain Davis/Spiller's running game, will be long day. Huskers have a senior QB and coach who has been defensive coordinator in big games, so they'll be well prepared here. Nebraska had odd stretch where they were minus in turnovers eight games in a row, five games in row with an INT.
Tigers are in Gator Bowl for record ninth time, but first time since 2000, with a young coaching staff that was reshuffled during season; Clemson is 2-5 vs bowl teams this season, 2-6 vs spread; underdogs covered their last four bowls, with Tigers losing last two SU, 28-20/23-20ot. Last time these teams met was Clemson's greatest moment, upsetting Huskers in '81 Orange Bowl 22-15, winning Tigers a national title. Favorites are 9-3 vs spread in last dozen Gator Bowls; would lean to local favorite Tigers.


Capital One Bowl, Orlando
Georgia won four of last five bowls, scoring 33 ppg; Stafford is 2-0 as a bowl starter; if he wins here, can tie Pat White next season as being 4-0 as a starting QB in bowls. Dawgs were 4-0 before Alabama smoked them between hedges, then defense imploded at end, allowing an average of 36 ppg over last four games (2-2). This is disappointed Georgia team that in preseason was #1 in country, but had injury issues on both lines, and are 0-6 vs spread the last six times they were favored to win.

Michigan State won nine of last 11 games after opening 38-31 loss to Cal but the two losses were 45-7 at home to Ohio State, 49-18 at Penn State in regular season finale; Spartans are 0-3 vs spread as underdog, as faves are 9-2-1 vs spread in their games this season. After being +10 in TOs in first seven games, State was -9 in last five games, as teams focused on taking star RB Ringer away-- he carried ball 370 times, over 30 times per game. Michigan State is 0-5 vs spread vs teams with winning records.

Underdogs from Big 11 have beaten SEC teams the last four years in this game, but Georgia (34-27 ot vs Purdue) was last SEC team to win in this bowl. Dawgs allowed 188+ rushing yards in three of last five games, as Tech ran ball for 409 yards in season finale, winning despite completing just one pass in game. Georgia allowed 21+ second half points in four of its last five games- they have big edge at QB, both coaches are good, but can Georgia do what LSU did last night, erase disappointment of regular season with a stellar bowl performance? I think they can.


Rose Bowl, Pasadena
USC won four of its last five bowl games, losing 41-38 three years ago to Vince Young's Longhorns; Trojans are without FB Havili (grades); they'll have to move a TE to FB for this game, but this loss in significant. USC's last four bowl wins are by 14-36-14-32 points- 10 of their 11 wins this year are by 14+ points (Arizona 17-10 the exception). Trojan defense is a dominant unit, holding last two opponents to 91-157 total yards in its last two games. Under is 6-2-1 in Trojans' last nine games.

Penn State won bowl games the last three years, beating Tennessee as a 7-point dog two years ago; Lions crushed Oregon State 45-14 Sept 6th, 19 days before Beavers upset the Trojans in Corvallis; both teams won vs Ohio State, with USC the more impressive winner. Penn State hasn't been an underdog since 10/27/07, when they lost 37-17 at home to Ohio State. Its been fourteen years since Lions played in Pasadena, so they have to be more excited than USC, playing here for fourth year in a row.

Can't underestimate an emotional lift provided by 82-year old Paterno on his feet not long after having a hip replacement; Penn State's only loss in this 11-1 season was 24-23 at Iowa, when Lions had ball up nine in 3rd quarter, but fell short, completing just 10-24 passes. Overconfidence is an issue for Trojan squad that would rather have played a Big 12 or SEC team, rather than playing in fourth straight Rose Bowl. Not sure Lions have the offensive balamce to move ball here, but they're a live dog.


Orange Bowl, Miami
Cincinnati coach Kelly is a great coach, winning three D-II national titles and also his first two D-I bowls; Bearcats won their last six games, are in their first BCS bowl game, so they have edge here over Tech squad that has lost last four BCS bowls. Cincy played five different QBs this year due to injury, but their WRs are so good all QBs had success. UC is 16-8 vs spread in last 24 games, 6-2 as an underdog. Defense has ten starters back from LY- they won their last five games decided by less than a TD.

Virginia Tech is an awful offensive team, shuffling two QBs; they've lost four of last five bowls, despite being favored in four of five games. Tech won three of last four games, they're 3-4 on the road this season, losing at East Carolina/BC/Florida State/Miami, but Tech is usually terrific on special teams, especially blocking punts. Hokies lost 24-21 as favorite to Kansas in this game LY; ACC teams lost their last six appearances in the Orange Bowl. Favorite is 8-4 against spread in last 12 Orange Bowls.

Virginia Tech beat Cincinnati 29-13 two years ago in Blacksburg, as 27-point favorite, thats how much ground Kelly has made up in his tenure in Queen City, but don't forget that Michigan State coach Dantonio was coach who recruited the four seniors on the DL, and he has done terrific job in East Lansing, so these kids have been coached well by two staffs. Cincinnati has to avoid special teams breakdowns and they'll win here.

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[pm530]

College Football – Tips and Trends

NCAAF


Thursday, January 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tips and Trends
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Outback Bowl: South Carolina at Iowa [ESPN | 11 AM ET]

South Carolina: The Gamecocks are looking to "salvage their season" according to senior WR Kenny McKinley after dropping their last two games of the regular season, including the worst loss of head coach Steve Spurrier's career against Florida on November 15th (56-6). “We are 7-5 and it is what it is,” Spurrier said. “We will try our best to represent South Carolina better (in the bowl game) than we have these past two games. We are going to try our best to regroup with our team. We are going to try and be encouraging and positive and try to get our confidence back here between now and game time.”

South Carolina is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games overall.
The OVER is 5-2 in South Carolina's last 7 games overall.

Key Injuries - S Emmanuel Cook (academics) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20

Iowa (-4, O/U 43): The Hawkeyes have won five of their last six games following a three-game losing streak, including a 55-0 rout of bowl-bound Minnesota in the regular-season finale. The highlight of the team's season was knocking off previously unbeaten Penn State 24-23 on November 8th. “It was a lot of fun,” Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz said. “It didn’t start out easy. Credit goes to our players. They hung in there and in the end a lot of good things happened.”

Iowa is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games overall.
The UNDER is 10-1 in Iowa's last 11 non-conference games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 24



Capital One Bowl: #15 Georgia vs. #18 Michigan State
[ABC | 1 PM ET]

Georgia (-7.5, O/U 54): The preseason #1 team in the country has to be disappointed not to be playing for the national championship on January 8th. The Bulldogs started the season strong at 4-0 but suffered bad losses to Alabama (41-30) and Florida (49-10) before closing it out with a 45-42 setback against rival Georgia Tech. “We’re going to do a better job next year,” Georgia head coach Mark Richt said. “We will critique everything from top to bottom. We have to be open and honest in our evaluations of ourselves.”

Georgia is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 bowl games.
The OVER is 7-2 in Georgia's last 9 neutral site games.

Key Injuries - WR Kris Durham (hand) is probable.
LB Darryl Gamble (leg) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 35 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

Michigan State: Spartans RB Javon Ringer hopes to end his career with a victory in his final game following a tremendous senior season in which he rushed for 132.5 yards per game and 21 touchdowns. Ringer will be opposed by Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno, who was an early Heisman Trophy candidate but was held under 100 yards in all three of his team's losses. “The perfect game for me would be something like 25 carries, 200 yards, three touchdowns and a victory,” Ringer said. “That’s the way I want to go out. I’m not naive. That perfect game is something you dream about. Georgia has a tremendous defense. And they are going to make it tough. But we’ve got a good enough team that the dream could become reality.”

Michigan State is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games overall.
The OVER is 5-0 in Michigan State's last 5 road games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 28



Gator Bowl: Nebraska vs. Clemson [CBS | 1 PM ET]

Nebraska: The Cornhuskers won five of their last six games to get here, including three straight victories down the stretch. They will be making their 45th postseason appearance and first in the Gator Bowl. Nebraska scored 141 points in its final three games led by QB Joe Ganz, who threw for 823 yards and seven touchdowns during that stretch. “We wanted to make progress,” Cornhuskers first-year head coach Bo Pelini said. “We feel we made some progress - not as far as we wanted to go, as far as the record is concerned, but it gives us an opportunity to get one more win.”

Nebraska is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games vs. teams with a winning record.
The UNDER is 6-2 in Nebraska's last 8 games on grass.

Key Injuries - LB Phillip Dillard (ankle) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27

Clemson (-2.5, O/U 56): The Tigers will be appearing in the Gator Bowl for a record ninth time and first since 2001. Clemson finished the regular season by winning three straight games after head coach Tommy Bowden resigned on October 13th, as he was replaced on an interim basis by Dabo Swinney. Even though this season was seen by many critics as a disappointment, Swinney still believes his team has something to play for. “It is a great honor for us and a great tribute to our team for what they have accomplished over the last seven weeks,” Swinney said. “When we were a 3-4 football team, we could only dream about a New Year’s Day bowl and for that to be a reality is a very special thing."

Clemson is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games vs. teams with a winning record.
The UNDER is 9-1 in Clemson's last 10 games as a favorite.

Key Injuries - S Sadat Chambers (disciplinary) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 30



Rose Bowl: #8 Penn State vs. #5 USC [ABC | 4:30 PM ET]

Penn State: Nittany Lions head coach Joe Paterno is hoping to return to the sidelines for the "Granddaddy of Them All" following hip surgery, as he is the all-time leader in postseason wins with 23. Paterno realizes his team is up against a great team in USC, which is looking to win its third straight Rose Bowl. “I hope we can go out there and be competitive with them. I’m a little bit nervous,” Paterno said. “This is a very, very impressive football team, Southern Cal. They do everything well. I think Southern Cal has every right to think they could play anybody and do as well. I don’t know whether we can do that kind of bragging, but we’re pretty good, and we’ll see.”

Penn State is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games overall.
Penn State is 3-1 SU in the last 4 meetings.

Key Injuries - DE Josh Gaines (ankle) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17

USC (-8.5, O/U 45): The Trojans simply dominated opponents during a nine-game winning over the last two months of the season, outscoring them by a 342-56 margin. They posted three shutouts during that stretch and allowed only one team to score more than 10 points. Of course all of that came after the team's lone blemish on an otherwise perfect season, losing 27-21 at Oregon State back on September 21st. “All year, for whatever reason, the loss we had hung on us,” USC head coach Pete Carroll said. “It didn’t seem that the opinion of that loss ever changed.”

USC is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games vs. Big Ten.
The UNDER is 21-7-1 in USC's last 29 games as a favorite.

Key Injuries - WR Damian Williams (shoulder) is probable.
S Kevin Ellison (knee) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27



Orange Bowl: #12 Cincinnati vs. #19 Virginia Tech [FOX | 8:30 PM ET]

Cincinnati (-2, O/U 42): The Bearcats are coming off an improbable run to the Big East title following six straight wins and will be facing Virginia Tech for the first time since a 29-13 loss at Blacksburg in 2006. They are 28-7 since that loss and overcame big odds this season en route to the conference championship after having five different QBs line up under center due to various injuries. “Our kids have heard this from me since Day 1,” Cincinnati head coach Brian Kelly said. “They’ve responded very well to the challenges, and the challenges are, you still don’t have the respect nationally until you come down in the Orange Bowl and show a national audience that you deserve to be here.”

Cincinnati is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games on grass.
The OVER is 4-1 in Cincinnati's last 5 games overall.

Key Injuries - CB Mike Mickens (knee) is probable.
WR Dominick Goodman (shoulder) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20

Virginia Tech: The Hokies have lost in their last four BCS bowl appearances after suffering a 24-21 defeat against Kansas in last year's Orange Bowl. The ACC as a conference has also dropped eight straight BCS bowl games overall and will be looking to end that skid against Cincinnati while the Big East has won in its last three BCS bowl appearances. “Last year, it left a bad taste in our mouth,” Virginia Tech senior cornerback Victor “Macho” Harris said. “This year, we’re going to try to get that taste out of our mouth.”

Virginia Tech is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 Thursday games.
The UNDER is 9-0 in Virginia Tech's last 9 Thursday games.

Key Injuries - LB Brett Warren (knee) is questionable.
DE Jason Worilds (shoulder) is questionable.
OL Nick Marshman (academics) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21 (Side Play of the Day)

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[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel


Thursday Write-up and Pick

Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati
The Hokies come into the contest with a 7-3 ATS record as an underdog over the last three seasons. Virginia Tech is the underdog pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the Hokies favored straight up by 2. Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (+2). Here are all of today's bowl picks.

THURSDAY, JANUARY 1

Game 245-246: Iowa vs. South Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 101.076; South Carolina 92.672
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 8 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Iowa by 3; 43
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (-3); Under

Game 247-248: Clemson vs. Nebraska
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 95.579; Nebraska 98.482
Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 3; 54
Vegas Line: Clemson by 3; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (+3); Under

Game 249-250: Michigan State vs. Georgia
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 92.204; Georgia 98.872
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 6 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: Georgia by 7 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+7 1/2); Over

Game 251-252: Penn State vs. USC
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 106.218; USC 118.726
Dunkel Line: USC by 12 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: USC by 9 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: USC (-9 1/2); Under

Game 253-254: Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 96.920; Cincinnati 95.012
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 2; 38
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (+2); Under