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Ncaa Football 10/23 - 10/25
Lets get this weekend rolling!!! These are my plays.....
Thursday, October 23, 2003
5 STAR: GEORGIA TECH (+2.5) OVER Maryland
Maryland has been hot, winning five straight games after coming out of the gate at 0-2, but they are up against a Georgia Tech team that is playing very well having won three games in a row, including a win on the road two weeks ago at Wake Forest. Both of these teams have has an extra week to prepare, but Georgia Tech is 4-1 against the spread at home when playing with rest. The Yellow Jackets are also 9-2 against the spread in home games after two straight wins against conference rivals since 1992, 12-3 against the spread after an upset win as an underdog since 1992 and 10-2 against the spread as a home underdog of two or more points when coming off of back to back wins. Maryland won at Tech last season, but that was the first time they had won there in ten years and the Terps are only 6-27 straight up on the road against winning teams. Take the the dog to bark here!
Saturday, October 25, 2003
5 STAR: Syracuse (+7) OVER PITTSBURGH
I think this line is way off. Pittsburgh's offense put on a show in the first half of last weeks game against Rutgers lighting up the scoreboard for 42 points, but then was nowhere to be found as they were shutout in the second half. The Panthers defense is very suspect having allowed over 500 yards of total offense to their opponents in 3 out of their last 4 games, and they allowed the Scarlet Knight to score 32 unanswered points in the second half as they hung on for a 10 point win. Now the Panthers are a full touchdown favorite against a Syracuse team that has flat out owned them. This is the first time Syracuse has been the underdog in this series in the last thirteen meetings, and the Orangemen have won 11 of the last 12 meetings, including 6 straight at Pittsburgh. Syracuse is 9-2 against the spread after playing a game as a home underdog since 1992 and 6-1 against the spread after a home win by 17 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Panthers have not fared well after being involved in a shootout, they are only 5-14 against the spread after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored since 1992. Take the points!
3 STAR: BOWLING GREEN (-3.5) OVER Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois has been very good to me this season, but they have to deal with an excellent Bowling Green team on the road and this should put an end to their BCS hopes. Northern Illinois might be ranked among the top twelve teams in the country and they are the "public" team hear as they have had their fare share of publicity now and Joe Public will love to jump on them getting more than a field goal, but there's the belief by many MAC insiders that Bowling Green is the best team in the league. Lets not forget the Bowling Green also has a very impressive win at Purdue this year, and their only lost was at Ohio State by a touchdown. The Falcons also own the #2 offense in the nation that averages 512 yards per game. Bowling Green has had this game circled on the calendar. This is a revenge game for the Falcons who started out last season at 8-0 before being beaten by Northern Illinois, a loss that cost them a bowl birth. The Home field advantage should be pretty big here also, Bowling Green is 17-7 against the spread in all home games since 1992 and they are 6-1 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992. You know that the BCS has to be rooting for the Falcons here, as this is one of only two tough games left for Northern Illinois who has a chance to run the table and crash the BCS. The BCS has always got what they needed in the past years to avoid a big controversy, and the need Northern Illinois to lose a game. I look for the BCS to get their wish, look for the Falcons to win this one convincingly!
3 STAR: Oregon State (+7.5) OVER WASHINGTON STATE
Oregon State was not sharp at all last week in a home loss to Washington, turning the ball over four times in route to a 38-17 loss. But, I look for them to bounce back strong on the road this week at Washington State. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points coming off of a loss against a conference rival, with a winning record on the season when playing another winning team are a solid 63-25 against the spread over the last five seasons and road underdogs coming off of an upset loss as a home favorite, in weeks 5 through 9 of the season are 83-49 against the spread since 1992. The Beavers have done very well against good teams on the road, they are 8-2 against the spread in road games when playing against a top level team with a winning percentage of 75% or better since 1992. The Cougars have not fared very well as a home chalk this season, going 0-3 against the spread in that role and they are only 1-5 against the spread after two consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals since 1992. Take the points here!
3 STAR: Auburn (+4) OVER LSU
After getting off to a slow start, Auburn is playing as well as anyone in the country and is finally living up to all of their preseason hype. LSU bounced back well last week at South Carolina after their home loss to Florida the previous week, but they have not fared well against teams that have a smash mouth running game like Auburn. Auburn is #14 in the nation in rushing, averaging 202 yards per game, lead by one of the top backs in the game in Cadillac Williams. The LSU defense is #1 in the nation against the run, but they have not played any teams with a serious running attack that Auburn will bring into this contest. Don't let the #1 defensive ranking against the run fool you, LSU will have trouble against the Cadillac and company, LSU is 0-7 against the spread in home games versus good rushing teams that are averaging 200 or more yards rushing per game since 1992. LSU is also only 17-33 against the spread after playing their last game on the road since 1992, 3-10 against the spread in home games after a road win against a conference rival since 1992 and 9-21 against the spread in home games in the second half of the season since 1992. The Auburn rushing attack is rolling, averaging 280 yards a game over the last four games, and I look for them to keep it going here. Auburn is 6-0 against the spread after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt in their last game over the last 3 seasons, 5-1 against the spread after a home win by 17 points or more over the last 3 seasons, 5-1 against the spread versus good rushing defenses that are allowing 120 or less rushing yards per game over the last 3 seasons and 6-1 against the spread when playing against a good team with a winning percentage of 75% or better over the last 3 seasons. The wrong team is favored here!
2 STAR: OVER 75.5 TEXAS TECH VS. MISSOURI
If it ain't broke don't fix it. Once again Vegas can not set this total high enough. Texas Tech has played over in every game this year and the trend will continue again in this game. Last week at Oklahoma State, the Red Raider offense did very little for three quarters before coming alive with a late 4th quarter charge and we still had a game with 100 total points scored! These two teams combined for 90 points last year in Lubbock and I will be shocked if they don't hit that number in this game. I'll continue to ride this horse until we see an under or a huge adjustment from Vegas.
2003 NCAA FOOTBALL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 5-4 (+3.0 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 17-9 (+21.3 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 9-6 (+4.8 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 9-5 (+3.5 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 40-24 (+32.6 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $3260.00
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
Thursday, October 23, 2003
5 STAR: GEORGIA TECH (+2.5) OVER Maryland
Maryland has been hot, winning five straight games after coming out of the gate at 0-2, but they are up against a Georgia Tech team that is playing very well having won three games in a row, including a win on the road two weeks ago at Wake Forest. Both of these teams have has an extra week to prepare, but Georgia Tech is 4-1 against the spread at home when playing with rest. The Yellow Jackets are also 9-2 against the spread in home games after two straight wins against conference rivals since 1992, 12-3 against the spread after an upset win as an underdog since 1992 and 10-2 against the spread as a home underdog of two or more points when coming off of back to back wins. Maryland won at Tech last season, but that was the first time they had won there in ten years and the Terps are only 6-27 straight up on the road against winning teams. Take the the dog to bark here!
Saturday, October 25, 2003
5 STAR: Syracuse (+7) OVER PITTSBURGH
I think this line is way off. Pittsburgh's offense put on a show in the first half of last weeks game against Rutgers lighting up the scoreboard for 42 points, but then was nowhere to be found as they were shutout in the second half. The Panthers defense is very suspect having allowed over 500 yards of total offense to their opponents in 3 out of their last 4 games, and they allowed the Scarlet Knight to score 32 unanswered points in the second half as they hung on for a 10 point win. Now the Panthers are a full touchdown favorite against a Syracuse team that has flat out owned them. This is the first time Syracuse has been the underdog in this series in the last thirteen meetings, and the Orangemen have won 11 of the last 12 meetings, including 6 straight at Pittsburgh. Syracuse is 9-2 against the spread after playing a game as a home underdog since 1992 and 6-1 against the spread after a home win by 17 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Panthers have not fared well after being involved in a shootout, they are only 5-14 against the spread after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored since 1992. Take the points!
3 STAR: BOWLING GREEN (-3.5) OVER Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois has been very good to me this season, but they have to deal with an excellent Bowling Green team on the road and this should put an end to their BCS hopes. Northern Illinois might be ranked among the top twelve teams in the country and they are the "public" team hear as they have had their fare share of publicity now and Joe Public will love to jump on them getting more than a field goal, but there's the belief by many MAC insiders that Bowling Green is the best team in the league. Lets not forget the Bowling Green also has a very impressive win at Purdue this year, and their only lost was at Ohio State by a touchdown. The Falcons also own the #2 offense in the nation that averages 512 yards per game. Bowling Green has had this game circled on the calendar. This is a revenge game for the Falcons who started out last season at 8-0 before being beaten by Northern Illinois, a loss that cost them a bowl birth. The Home field advantage should be pretty big here also, Bowling Green is 17-7 against the spread in all home games since 1992 and they are 6-1 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992. You know that the BCS has to be rooting for the Falcons here, as this is one of only two tough games left for Northern Illinois who has a chance to run the table and crash the BCS. The BCS has always got what they needed in the past years to avoid a big controversy, and the need Northern Illinois to lose a game. I look for the BCS to get their wish, look for the Falcons to win this one convincingly!
3 STAR: Oregon State (+7.5) OVER WASHINGTON STATE
Oregon State was not sharp at all last week in a home loss to Washington, turning the ball over four times in route to a 38-17 loss. But, I look for them to bounce back strong on the road this week at Washington State. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points coming off of a loss against a conference rival, with a winning record on the season when playing another winning team are a solid 63-25 against the spread over the last five seasons and road underdogs coming off of an upset loss as a home favorite, in weeks 5 through 9 of the season are 83-49 against the spread since 1992. The Beavers have done very well against good teams on the road, they are 8-2 against the spread in road games when playing against a top level team with a winning percentage of 75% or better since 1992. The Cougars have not fared very well as a home chalk this season, going 0-3 against the spread in that role and they are only 1-5 against the spread after two consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals since 1992. Take the points here!
3 STAR: Auburn (+4) OVER LSU
After getting off to a slow start, Auburn is playing as well as anyone in the country and is finally living up to all of their preseason hype. LSU bounced back well last week at South Carolina after their home loss to Florida the previous week, but they have not fared well against teams that have a smash mouth running game like Auburn. Auburn is #14 in the nation in rushing, averaging 202 yards per game, lead by one of the top backs in the game in Cadillac Williams. The LSU defense is #1 in the nation against the run, but they have not played any teams with a serious running attack that Auburn will bring into this contest. Don't let the #1 defensive ranking against the run fool you, LSU will have trouble against the Cadillac and company, LSU is 0-7 against the spread in home games versus good rushing teams that are averaging 200 or more yards rushing per game since 1992. LSU is also only 17-33 against the spread after playing their last game on the road since 1992, 3-10 against the spread in home games after a road win against a conference rival since 1992 and 9-21 against the spread in home games in the second half of the season since 1992. The Auburn rushing attack is rolling, averaging 280 yards a game over the last four games, and I look for them to keep it going here. Auburn is 6-0 against the spread after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt in their last game over the last 3 seasons, 5-1 against the spread after a home win by 17 points or more over the last 3 seasons, 5-1 against the spread versus good rushing defenses that are allowing 120 or less rushing yards per game over the last 3 seasons and 6-1 against the spread when playing against a good team with a winning percentage of 75% or better over the last 3 seasons. The wrong team is favored here!
2 STAR: OVER 75.5 TEXAS TECH VS. MISSOURI
If it ain't broke don't fix it. Once again Vegas can not set this total high enough. Texas Tech has played over in every game this year and the trend will continue again in this game. Last week at Oklahoma State, the Red Raider offense did very little for three quarters before coming alive with a late 4th quarter charge and we still had a game with 100 total points scored! These two teams combined for 90 points last year in Lubbock and I will be shocked if they don't hit that number in this game. I'll continue to ride this horse until we see an under or a huge adjustment from Vegas.
2003 NCAA FOOTBALL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 5-4 (+3.0 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 17-9 (+21.3 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 9-6 (+4.8 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 9-5 (+3.5 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 40-24 (+32.6 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $3260.00
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
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