NCAAF Week 15 Trends and Indexes 12/3 through 12/6

[Udog]

Best games of 2008


Dec. 6

South Florida at West Virginia: Jim Leavitt might -- just might -- admit this is a big game. The South Florida coach fell asleep during Neil Armstrong's walk on the moon. Not much phases him. The winner here should capture the Big East. Two top 10 Mountaineers' teams have played South Florida the past two years. Two top 10 Mountaineers teams have come out losers. The tough Bulls' D has shut down West Virginia's running game.

USC at UCLA: Rick Neuheisel is Tabasco. This rivalry, lately has been rice cakes. In other words, USC-UCLA needs a little Ricky Tabasco.

[Udog]

NCAAF
Long Sheet


Week 15


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Wednesday, December 3

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MIDDLE TENN ST (5 - 6) at LA LAFAYETTE (5 - 6) - 12/3/2008, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAFAYETTE is 1-1 against the spread versus MIDDLE TENN ST over the last 3 seasons
LA LAFAYETTE is 1-1 straight up against MIDDLE TENN ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Thursday, December 4

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LOUISVILLE (5 - 6) at RUTGERS (6 - 5) - 12/4/2008, 7:45 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
RUTGERS is 1-1 against the spread versus LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
RUTGERS is 1-1 straight up against LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Friday, December 5

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BUFFALO (7 - 5) vs. BALL ST (12 - 0) - 12/5/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALL ST is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
BALL ST is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
BALL ST is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog this season.
BUFFALO is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALL ST is 2-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
BALL ST is 2-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, December 6

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NAVY (7 - 4) vs. ARMY (3 - 8) - 12/6/2008, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NAVY is 103-72 ATS (+23.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 103-72 ATS (+23.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 96-66 ATS (+23.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
NAVY is 51-22 ATS (+26.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
NAVY is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
NAVY is 45-21 ATS (+21.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
ARMY is 8-25 ATS (-19.5 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
ARMY is 7-25 ATS (-20.5 Units) after a bye week since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARMY is 1-1 against the spread versus NAVY over the last 3 seasons
NAVY is 2-0 straight up against ARMY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (8 - 3) at CONNECTICUT (7 - 4) - 12/6/2008, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 since 1992.
CONNECTICUT is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
CONNECTICUT is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CONNECTICUT is 2-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
CONNECTICUT is 2-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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S FLORIDA (7 - 4) at W VIRGINIA (7 - 4) - 12/6/2008, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
S FLORIDA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
W VIRGINIA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
S FLORIDA is 2-0 against the spread versus W VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
S FLORIDA is 2-0 straight up against W VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (0 - 11) at CALIFORNIA (7 - 4) - 12/6/2008, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
WASHINGTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
WASHINGTON is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
WASHINGTON is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
WASHINGTON is 49-79 ATS (-37.9 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses this season.
CALIFORNIA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games this season.
CALIFORNIA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home lined games this season.
CALIFORNIA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday this season.
CALIFORNIA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-0 against the spread versus CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
CALIFORNIA is 1-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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USC (10 - 1) at UCLA (4 - 7) - 12/6/2008, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCLA is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
UCLA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
UCLA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
UCLA is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
UCLA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
UCLA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
UCLA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
UCLA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
UCLA is 2-0 against the spread versus USC over the last 3 seasons
UCLA is 1-1 straight up against USC over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA ST (5 - 6) at ARIZONA (6 - 5) - 12/6/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992.
ARIZONA is 28-55 ATS (-32.5 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
ARIZONA is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points since 1992.
ARIZONA is 37-57 ATS (-25.7 Units) in home games since 1992.
ARIZONA is 37-57 ATS (-25.7 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
ARIZONA is 37-57 ATS (-25.7 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA ST over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA ST is 2-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (10 - 2) at HAWAII (7 - 5) - 12/6/2008, 11:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARKANSAS ST (6 - 5) at TROY (7 - 4) - 12/6/2008, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARKANSAS ST is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TROY is 1-1 against the spread versus ARKANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
TROY is 1-1 straight up against ARKANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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W KENTUCKY (2 - 9) at FLA INTERNATIONAL (4 - 7) - 12/6/2008, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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E CAROLINA (8 - 4) at TULSA (10 - 2) - 12/6/2008, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
E CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games this season.
E CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TULSA is 1-0 against the spread versus E CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
TULSA is 1-0 straight up against E CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BOSTON COLLEGE (9 - 3) vs. VIRGINIA TECH (8 - 4) - 12/6/2008, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA TECH is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 39-22 ATS (+14.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
VIRGINIA TECH is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON COLLEGE is 3-1 against the spread versus VIRGINIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON COLLEGE is 3-1 straight up against VIRGINIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ALABAMA (12 - 0) vs. FLORIDA (11 - 1) - 12/6/2008, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
FLORIDA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
FLORIDA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
FLORIDA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
FLORIDA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
FLORIDA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ALABAMA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 0-0 against the spread versus ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA is 1-0 straight up against ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MISSOURI (9 - 3) vs. OKLAHOMA (11 - 1) - 12/6/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
OKLAHOMA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
OKLAHOMA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
OKLAHOMA is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA is 2-1 against the spread versus MISSOURI over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA is 3-0 straight up against MISSOURI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[Udog]

NCAAF
Short Sheet


Week 15


Wednesday, December 3rd

Middle Tenn State at LA Lafayette, 7:00 ET
Middle Tenn State: 8-1 ATS off DD conference win
LA Lafayette: 6-0 Over off Under



Thursday, December 4th

Louisville at Rutgers, 7:45 ET ESPN
Louisville: 6-0 Over off bye week
Rutgers: 8-1 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56



Friday, December 5th

MAC Championship Game
Detroit, MI

Buffalo at Ball State, 8:00 ET ESPN2
Buffalo: 6-0 ATS as underdog
Ball State: 8-2 ATS this season



Saturday, December 6th

Navy vs. Army, 12:00 ET (in Philadelphia, PA) CBS
Navy: 12-4 ATS vs. Army
Army: 7-25 ATS off bye week

Pitt at UConn, 12:00 ET ESPN2
Pitt: 25-42 ATS Away off home game
UConn: 9-0 ATS at home off road conference loss

(TC) South Florida at West Virginia, 8:00 ET ESPN2
South Florida: 4-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points
West Virginia: 1-8 ATS at home off conference loss

(TC) Washington at California, 3:00 ET FSN
Washington: 0-8 ATS vs. conference
California: 6-0 ATS in home games

USC at UCLA, 4:30 ET ABC
USC: 20-5 Under vs. conference
UCLA: 20-6 ATS as home underdog

Arizona State at Arizona, 8:00 ET ESPN
Arizona State: 7-0 Under off cover as DD favorite
Arizona: 1-10 ATS as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points

(TC) Cincinnati at Hawaii, 11:30 ET ESPN2
Cincinnati: 16-5 ATS off BB home games
Hawaii: 2-9 ATS off home win

Added Games

Arkansas State at Troy, 7:00 ET
Arkansas State: 0-10 ATS after a game where they forced 3+ turnovers
Troy: 6-1 Under off a bye week

Western Kentucky at Florida International, 7:00 ET
Western Kentucky: 7-1 Under as underdog
Florida International: 7-1 ATS on turf

Conference USA Championship Game
Tulsa is Home

East Carolina at Tulsa, 12:00 ET ESPN
East Carolina: 0-6 ATS in road games
Tulsa: 5-1 Over on turf

ACC Championship Game
Tampa, FL

(TC) Boston College vs. Virginia Tech, 1:00 ET ABC
Boston College: 0-3 ATS on neutral field
Virginia Tech: 24-10 ATS playing with revenge

SEC Championship Game
Atlanta, GA

Alabama vs. Florida, 4:00 ET CBS
Alabama: 6-0 ATS after allowing 9 points or less
Florida: 17-5 Over off DD road win

Big 12 Championship Game
Kansas City, MO

Missouri vs. Oklahoma, 8:00 ET ABC
Missouri: 3-0 Under if total is 70 or higher
Oklahoma: 7-0 ATS after scoring 50+ points

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

NCAAF


Week 15


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Trend Sheet
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Wednesday, December 3

7:00 PM MIDDLE TENNESSEE vs. LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Middle Tennessee's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Middle Tennessee's last 13 games
Louisiana-Lafayette is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Middle Tennessee
Louisiana-Lafayette is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Middle Tennessee



Thursday, December 4

7:30 PM LOUISVILLE vs. RUTGERS
Louisville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Louisville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Rutgers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Rutgers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games



Friday, December 5

8:00 PM BUFFALO vs. BALL STATE
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Ball State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games
Ball State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games



Saturday, December 6

12:00 PM EAST CAROLINA vs. TULSA
East Carolina is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
East Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Tulsa is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
Tulsa is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home


12:00 PM NAVY vs. ARMY
Navy is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Navy is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games on the road
Army is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Navy
Army is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Navy


12:00 PM PITTSBURGH vs. CONNECTICUT
Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
Connecticut is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
Connecticut is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games


1:00 PM BOSTON COLLEGE vs. VIRGINIA TECH
Boston College is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Virginia Tech
Boston College is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Virginia Tech is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games


3:00 PM WASHINGTON vs. CALIFORNIA
Washington is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing California
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing California
California is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
California is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games


4:00 PM ALABAMA vs. FLORIDA
Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Florida
Alabama is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Florida is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Alabama


4:30 PM SOUTHERN CAL vs. UCLA
Southern Cal is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against UCLA
Southern Cal is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing UCLA
UCLA is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games
UCLA is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games


7:00 PM ARKANSAS STATE vs. TROY
Arkansas State is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arkansas State's last 5 games
Troy is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Troy is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home


7:00 PM WESTERN KENTUCKY vs. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Western Kentucky is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Western Kentucky is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Florida International is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Florida International is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games at home


8:00 PM SOUTH FLORIDA vs. WEST VIRGINIA
South Florida is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
South Florida is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
West Virginia is 20-3 SU in its last 23 games at home
West Virginia is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games


8:00 PM ARIZONA STATE vs. ARIZONA
Arizona State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona State's last 6 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games
Arizona is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games


8:00 PM MISSOURI vs. OKLAHOMA
Missouri is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma
Missouri is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Oklahoma is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Oklahoma is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games


11:30 PM CINCINNATI vs. HAWAII
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Hawaii is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games at home
Hawaii is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games


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[pm530]

NCAAF
Write-up


Wednesday’s Game

Road team won four of last five Middle Tennessee/UL-Lafayette games, with Blue Raiders winning last viist here, 34-20; underdog covered all of those games. ULL lost its last three games, allowing 37-40-48 points, as Cajuns threw eight INTs (-6 TO ratio). ULL is 3-1 at home, losing last home game 37-24 to UTEP. MTSU won last three games after 2-6 start, scoring 32.3 ppg; they're 1-5 on road this year (only win at a Western Kentucky team playing first year of D-I ball). Middle Tennessee is 1-3 vs spread in last four games as underdog; ULL is 5-2 as a favorite.

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[pm530]

College Football - Dunkel Index

NCAAF
Dunkel Index


Middle Tennessee State at UL Lafayette
The Blue Raiders come into the contest having won their last three SU and look to build on a 3-year 10-4 ATS record against teams with a losing record as they face the 5-6 Ragin' Cajuns. Middle Tennessee State is the pick (+5) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Raiders favored straight up by 4. Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (+5).

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 3

Game 101-102: Middle Tennessee State at UL Lafayette
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 77.821; UL Lafayette 73.597
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 4; 60
Vegas Line: UL Lafayette by 5; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (+5); Over

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[Udog]

NCAAF


Saturday, December 6


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Tips and Trends
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#17 Boston College vs. #25 Virginia Tech [ABC | 1 PM ET]

Boston College (-1, O/U 38.5): Redshirt freshman quarterback Dominique Davis, who relieved the injured Chris Crane at Wake Forest, threw two touchdown passes and didn’t turn the ball over in Saturday’s victory over Maryland. Davis has been impressive since filling in for Crane but he’ll be under heavy fire today from the Hokies fierce pass rush. Davis won’t have to do it alone, however. The Eagles have scored a non-offensive touchdown in seven consecutive games.

BC is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 meetings vs. VT.
Underdog is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

Key Injuries - QB Chris Crane (collarbone) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21 (Side Play of the Day)

Virginia Tech: One of Virginia Tech’s four losses this season came at the hands of the Eagles on Oct. 18. The Hokies are hoping for a repeat of last year, when they beat BC in the championship game after losing to them in the regular season. Quarterback Tyrod Tyler is coming off one of his best outings of the season last week versus Virginia. He connected on 12-of-18 pass attempts (67 percent) against the Cavaliers for 137 yards and a touchdown. He also rushed for a career-high 137 yards.

VT is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games overall.
The UNDER is 4-0 in VT’s last 4 conference games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 17



#1 Alabama vs. #4 Florida [CBS | 4 PM ET]

Alabama: Being voted the No. 1 team in the country doesn’t mean much with the oddsmakers, who opened the Crimson Tide as an 8-point underdog for this game. The line has now climbed to 10 but the Tide players don’t mind being overlooked. “I ain’t worried about that at all,” Alabama cornerback Javier Arenas said. “It’s been like that the whole season, starting with Clemson and going to Georgia. You’re accustomed to it now.”If the Tide are going to pull another upset on Saturday, they’ll have to rely on a defense that allowed just 73.6 rushing yards per game during the regular season.

Alabama is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 meetings vs. Florida.
Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 28 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

Florida (-9.5, O/U 51.5): After a one-point loss early in the year at home to Ole Miss, the Gators are now four quarters from the BCS Title game. Florida has the SEC’s top ranked rushing offense. The Gators generate big plays from its running game by spreading the field and creating mismatches with its speed. However, Florida’s offense may be without one of its top weapons. Junior receiver Percy Harvin, who has scored touchdowns in 16 consecutive games, is questionable with a sprained ankle. Urban Meyer said that Harvin won’t practice early in the week and is day-to-day.

Florida is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU win.
Florida is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 conference games.

Key Injuries - WR Percy Harvin (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 38



#20 Missouri vs. #2 Oklahoma [ABC | 8 PM ET]

Missouri: A once-promising season for the Tigers hit rock bottom with a disappointing loss to rival Kansas last Saturday. Still, it can all be erased with an upset victory over heavily favored Oklahoma Saturday night. Unfortunately for Missouri, its weakness is pass coverage, a dangerous shortcoming when preparing to face the mighty Sooners. The Tigers are allowing 277 yards per game through the air and will need to improve in that area dramatically if they plan on winning the Big 12 Championship.

Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Missouri is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games following a SU loss.

Key Injuries - CB Castine Bridges (knee) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 31

Oklahoma (-17, O/U 79): After jumping over rival Texas in the BCS standings, the Sooners are now one win away from playing for the National Championship. Oklahoma brings in a red-hot offense that has topped 60 points in their last three games and is averaging 557 yards of offense on the season. If the Sooners have a weakness, it’s on defense. OU is allowing 359.5 yards and 24.8 points per game.

OU is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 conference games.
OU is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games overall.

Key Injuries - QB Sam Bradford (thumb) is probable.
DE Auston English (knee) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 48

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[pm530]

NCAAF


Thursday, December 4


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Tips and Trends
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Louisville at Rutgers [ESPN | 7:30 PM ET]

Louisville: The Cardinals enter the finale on a four-game losing streak, the longest since going 1-10 in 1997. Louisville faces one of the hottest passing attacks in the country with a freshman cornerback and walk-on safeties as two of its starters. Its offense keeps turning the ball over, and its special teams has been awful of late. The Cardinals only road victory this season was a seven-point win over Memphis, and among its losses was a disappointing defeat at last-place Syracuse.

Louisville is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games following a bye week.
Louisville is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 conference games.

Key Injuries - CB Woodny Turenne (collarbone) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21

Rutgers (-10, O/U 51): Rutgers started the year 1-5 but has rebounded its way back into the bowl picture with five wins in a row. A sixth victory here would seal the deal. Quarterback Mike Teel was booed during the team’s losing skid, and there was talk that he should be benched for a younger player who could contribute in the future. But the senior who will graduate holding every school passing record—both good and bad—has played his best football of the year over the last month. Expect Rutgers to show up ready to air it out against a depleted Louisville secondary.

Rutgers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Rutgers is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

Key Injuries - LS Jeremy Branch (knee) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 31

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[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel - Thur.


Louisville at Rutgers
Needing a win to become bowl eligible, the Cardinals look to take advantage of Rutgers' 0-3 ATS mark this season as a favorite between 3 1/2 and 10 points. Louisville is the underdog pick (+10) according to Dunkel, which has Rutgers favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Louisville (+10).

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 4

Game 105-106: Louisville at Rutgers
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 84.967; Rutgers 94.145
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 9; 56
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 10; 51
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (+10); Over

[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel - Fri. & Sat.


Buffalo vs. Ball State
The Cardinals look to keep their perfect season intact (12-0) and are 7-2 ATS as a favorite this year. Ball State is the pick (-14 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 16 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Ball State (-14 1/2). (Note: I will post the I-AA games later today.)

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 5

Game 107-108: Buffalo vs. Ball State
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 77.204; Ball State 93.882
Dunkel Line: Ball State by 16 1/2; 66
Vegas Line: Ball State by 14 1/2; 62
Dunkel Pick: Ball State (-14 1/2); Over



SATURDAY, DECEMBER 6

Game 109-110: Navy vs. Army
Dunkel Ratings: Navy 85.474; Army 75.905
Dunkel Line: Navy by 9 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Navy by 11; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Army (+11); Over

Game 111-112: Pittsburgh at Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 95.412; Connecticut 92.176
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 50
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 2 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+2 1/2); Over

Game 113-114: South Florida at West Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 85.325; West Virginia 98.580
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 13; 52
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 7; 47
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-7); Over

Game 115-116: Washington at California
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 70.012; California 106.521
Dunkel Line: California by 36 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: California by 35 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: California (-35 1/2); Over

Game 117-118: USC at UCLA
Dunkel Ratings: USC 118.648; UCLA 89.926
Dunkel Line: USC by 28 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: USC by 33; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (+33); Over

Game 119-120: Arizona State at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 92.864; Arizona 101.448
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 8 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Arizona by 10 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (+10 1/2); Under

Game 121-122: Cincinnati at Hawaii
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 92.403; Hawaii 87.733
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 4 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (+7); Under

Game 123-124: Arkansas State at Troy
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 75.200; Troy 88.759
Dunkel Line: Troy by 13 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: Troy by 11; 54
Dunkel Pick: Troy (-11); Over

Game 125-126: Western Kentucky at Florida International
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 65.483; Florida International 78.935
Dunkel Line: Florida International by 13 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Florida International by 8; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida International (-8); Under

Game 127-128: East Carolina at Tulsa
Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 84.452; Tulsa 93.708
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 9; 73
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 12 1/2; 65 1/2
Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (+12 1/2); Over

Game 129-130: Boston College vs. Virginia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 97.699; Virginia Tech 92.671
Dunkel Line: Boston College by 5; 44
Vegas Line: Pick; 39
Dunkel Pick: Boston College; Over

Game 131-132: Alabama vs. Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 107.067; Florida 120.543
Dunkel Line: Florida by 13 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Florida by 9 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-9 1/2); Under

Game 133-134: Missouri vs. Oklahoma
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 102.897; Oklahoma 122.076
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 19; 85
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 17; 79
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-17); Over

[Udog]

NCAAF


Friday, December 5


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Tips and Trends
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MAC Championship: #12 Ball State vs. Buffalo [ESPN2 | 8 PM ET]

Ball State (-14.5, O/U 62): Ball State has one of the most balanced offenses in the MAC. RB MiQuale Lewis leads the MAC in rushing yards with 1,570 and is on pace to finish among the top five single-season rushers all-time in the league. QB Nate Davis is second in the conference in passing, averaging 257.9 yards per game. The Cardinals’ greatest area of improvement this season has been on defense. Ball State leads the MAC in scoring defense (16.7 points per game) and ranks fourth in the league in total defense.

Ball State is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games overall.
The UNDER is 5-2 in Ball State’s last 7 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 41 (Side Play of the Day)

Buffalo: The Bulls have the potential to score in bunches and during their recent five-game winning streak, Buffalo has averaged 40 points a game. QB Drew Willy has been steady all season and RB James Starks, as he has the last two seasons, got better in November. On defense, while the Bulls force turnovers, they also allowed 31.6 points over the last five games. The defense will need to play much better versus a Ball State offense that averages 456 yards and 37.7 points per game.

Buffalo is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 conference games.
Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games following a ATS loss.

Key Injuries - DL Dane Robinson (thumb) is questionable

PROJECTED SCORE: 21


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Write-Up - Fri. & Sat.


Friday's Game

Ball State is 12-0, winning every game but one by 12+ points; Cardinals hammered Buffalo 49-14 LY (-16), outgaining Bulls 507-219 and scoring TD on defense. Ball covered three of four overall in series. Buffalo is 6-0 as underdog away from home this year, Cardinals are 4-1 as road favorite in '08. Overall, Ball State is 8-2-1 vs spread this year, Buffalo 8-4. Four of Bulls' last seven games went OT; underdogs covered nine of their last eleven games, with over 5-1-1 in their last seven.


Saturday Games
Navy won last six games vs Army by average score of 40-12, covering five of six; Middies are going for their 6th straight Commander-in-Chief trophy, which is very big deal for them. Navy won six of its last eight games, shutting out Northern Illinois in DeKalb last week: they're +14 in turnovers this season, 1-1 as a favorite. Army covered six of its last eight games, but lost last three, by 9-7-27 points.

Home side won last four Pitt-UConn games, with Panthers losing last two visits here, 29-17/46-45ot; Pitt beat West Virginia in their big rivalry game last week, Panthers' second loss in row; they won four of five road games, are 2-1 as a dog this season. UConn lost four of its last six games; they've scored 13 or less points in all four losses, and are 2-2 as favorite in 2008. Big East home favorites are 7-9 against spread.

West Virginia is wearing all-white uniforms to honor senior QB White in his final home game; Mountaineers lost to South Florida last two years, 24-19/21-13, both as favorites. WVa lost two of last three games, with a loss to rival Pitt last week; they're 4-1 at home this season (2-3 as home favorite). USF lost three of last four games, losing last two away games at Louisville (24-20), Cincinnati (24-10). Four of West Virginia's last five games went over the total.

Washington is winless, their coach has been fired, but now at least they know who the new coach is (USC OC Sarkisian); Huskies lost four of last five vs Cal, losing last two visits here, 54-7/31-24ot. Golden Bears lost two of last three games, but they're 6-0 as home favorite, winning in Berkeley by 7-35-10-21-10-21 points. U-Dub is 0-9 vs spread in its last nine games. Pac-10 home favorites are 16-8 against the spread.

USC won four of last five vs crosstown rival UCLA. losing 13-9 in last visit here two years ago; Trojans, who lost offensive coordinator to the Washington job Thursday, won last eight games by a combined score of 314-54 since losing at Oregon State in September. Bruins lost three of last four games, are 4-5 vs spread as underdog this year, failing to cover last three tries. Pac-10 home dogs are 9-7. Neuheisel's first rivalry game, this game always has big recruiting ramifications.

Arizona State scored four defensive TDs in 34-9 win over UCLA last week, thought to tie national record; they've won three games in row, are still alive for bowl bid even though they lost six in row earlier in season. ASU won four of last five series games, with dogs covering four of five games. Arizona is 0-4 if it scores less than 30 points; they lost last two games, at oregon, and at home to Oregon State, as they blew an 8-point lead in game's final minutes.

Cincinnati won Big East, is headed to BCS Bowl (probably Orange Bowl vs BC) so may be distracted on trip to Paradise to face host squad that is staying home for Christmas Eve bowl game. Hawai'i won last meeting 20-19 five years ago, with brawl at end of game, but different coaches on both sides now. Big East favorites are 8-13 vs spread in non-conference games, 3-6 road. WAC underdogs are 8-17 vs spread, 2-5 at home.

Winner of Troy-Arkansas State game is going to New Orleans Bowl on December 21 as Sun Belt champ; ASU won three of last four in series, winning last visit here 33-26 (+8). Troy is 5-2 in last seven games, with one of losses at LSU, when they led 31-3 with 17:00 left- they're 4-2-1 as a favorite this year. Three of ASU's five losses are by five points or less- they're 1-2 as underdog. Sun Belt home favorites are 9-7 vs spread.

Florida International had tough 57-51 OT loss in a rivalry game at FAU last week, their fourth loss in last five games; they split last two games vs Western Kentucky, 14-35/38-35, with both played here. Panthers are 2-1 as faorite this season. Hilltoppers haven't played in three weeks, are 2-5-1 vs spread as underdog, losing away games by 18-34-38-14-10 pts.

Tulsa scored 94 points in winning last two games that followed 2-game losing streak; Hurricanes are 8-3 vs spread as favorite this year, 5-0 at home where they average 61 ppg. East Carolina won first three games and five of last six, but lost three in row in between, giving up 35.3 ppg. Pirates are 2-1 as underdog; three of their four losses are by 15+ points. C-USA favorites are 20-27 against spread in conference games this year.

Boston College beat Virginia Tech in last two regular season meetings, by 14-10/28-23 scores, but lost 30-16 to Hokies in LY's ACC title game, as Tech held them scoreless in second half of Ryan's last college game. BC won, covered last four games despite losing QB Crane (collarbone); they are 4-1 away from home, losing only to North Carolina. Tech won three of last four games despite erratic QB play- they lost last three on road.

Florida won, covered last seven lined games, with 42-14 win vs Vandy closest game they've played since home loss to Ole Miss. Gators have 13 INTs in last five games (+11 TO ratio in those five games). Alabama won at Georgia, on neutral field vs Clemson when underdog this season, scoring 75 points in those two games, but three of last five teams they've played already fired their coach. SEC favorites are 20-25 vs spread.

Oklahoma has been killing people, scoring 62.8 ppg in last four games; Sooners are 8-2 vs spread as favorite this year. Missouri lost 56-31 at Texas the only time they were underdog this season; they lost 38-17 to Oklahoma in this game LY (+3), in game that was 17-all at half. Big 12 favorites are 22-29 vs spread this season. Game is at Arrowhead, where Mizzou lost to Kansas on very sloppy track last week. Will the field be any better this week?

[BettorsChat]

Hawaii Oh-Oh:
Play against any college football favorite that plays their final regular
season game in Hawaii if the Warriors win percentage is .500 or greater.


Pointspread Record since 1980:
14-5 (74%)


This week’s application:
Hawaii (play against Cincinnati)