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134 Oklahoma -16 10 Units Lines are from 5dimes.com
My reasoning if anyone is interested. Warning tho, its long.
This selection started to take shape way back on October 11. That was the weekend that Oklahoma played Texas and lost 45-35. It was also the weekend that Missouri lost to Oklahoma State 28-23 and the weekend Texas Tech beat Nebraska 37-31. For me it was the weekend that the contenders and the pretenders separated themselves from each other in what I believe is the most powerful conference in football by far (with my apologies to all the SEC fans out there). Not to say that I thought Oklahoma was a "pretender" because they lost because thats far from the case. They had already beaten a real good TCU team by that point and were averaging over 40 points per game. That game increased my perception of Texas rather than detract from my perception of Oklahoma. It was after this weekend that I came to the conclusion that my GOY selection, my only 10 unit selection in college football for the year, would come from this conference. It took til about midnight on November 22 to come to the conclusion that this selection would come out of the Big 12 Championship Game specifically because it was at that point that I figured Oklahoma would beat State handily and the BCS system would reward them with a spot in the Championship game. Afterall, historically, the BCS does not put a great deal of emphasis, for whatever reason, on head to head matchups and even more in the Sooners favor was the fact that the OU/Texas game was played 6 weeks ago. Then why wasnt this selection on OU vs OSU? Two reasons: First is that the game was on the road and I didnt want my only 10 unit play for the year going against a team that was undefeated SU and ATS at home which OSU was. Secondly, it was already established at that point that Missouri was in the Championship game out of the North and the matchup whether it was OU or Texas playing them was more favorable to me than the two South teams against each other. Turns out OU did win and cover and I posted them on Saturday as my first 5 unit play up to this point.
Last year the game was played in San Antonio with the same two teams squaring off. The exact location of the game doesnt mean too much to me handicapping wise because both schools get the same ticket allotment and sell their full allotment. If there is a small disparity percentage wise in number of fans because one school's fans gave up more tickets than the other then so be it. Whats more important to me than location is the fact that Missouri was ranked #1 in the AP and Oklahoma #9. Oklahoma already had beaten them but that was much earlier in the year and it was in Norman and it was by only 10. And last year OU wasnt averaging 50+ points per game. And what happened? Missouri stayed with them for a half and OU outscored them 24-3 in the second to win by 3 td's. Does that sound familiar? A little bit like last week to me. Missouri did all they could to keep the ball out of Bradford's hands, Missouri used 10 play, 8 play and 10 play drives in the first half to get their 14 points and that was before he was putting up the completely astronomic numbers he has this year along with Murray and Demarco at RB. Missouri used 10 play, 8 play and 10 play drives in the first half to get their 14 points. Point being about last year is that Missouri was a better team last year both statistics and record wise than they were this year and Oklahoma is a better team this year statistics and record wise than they were last year with the core of each team being mostly the same. Maybe the league caught up with Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin a bit and Coach Pinkell's methods of using those two outstanding players, while OU has gone in the opposite direction with them creating a huge gap on the offensive side of the ball particulary between them and the rest of the league. Sure Texas Tech put up great numbers all year but OU shut them down. Even in the Sooners loss to Texas they produced 435 yards of offensive, none of which was in garbage time, which is very far from being shut down. In fact Texas' final score margin of 10 points was greater than their yardage margin of 3 yards.
Now down to the nitty gritty.
Sooners rank #8 in the nation in pass efficienty defense.
Missouri ranks #71. (Philsteele.com)
Pass efficiency d ranking take into account yardage, comp pctg, total interceptions, percentage of ints per pass, total tds, td rate,yards per attempt and yards per completion. A much more detailed and useful category than "pass d" which just allows for yards given up.
Power ratings: OU 160-Mizzou 147 (Philsteele.com)
Strength of Schedule OU #1-Mizzou #38 (CBS Sportsline)
Turnover Margin OU 2-Mizzou 55
Total Defense OU 66 Mizzou 91 (Neither have top notch statistics here but Oklahoma has given up far more "garbage time" yards and scores than Missouri has. Also, due to the potency and quick strike characteristics of the Sooners offensive, they allow opponents more possessions per game which will only impact negatively on total defense statistics.
In looking at common opponents, OU has beaten two teams that Missouri lost to while Missouri has beaten 0 opponents that Oklahoma lost to (didnt play Texas). Oklahoma has also beaten each team that Missouri has beaten by a wider margin than Missouri, with the exception of one game which Missouri won by 35 and OU won by 34.
Oklahoma is an offensive machine, pure and simple. And Missouri are no slouches in that department either I grant you, but they not what Oklahoma is. Oklahoma has not scored less than 58 points in its last 5 games and has scored over 60 in 4 straight. They average 55 points per game in Big 12 play and scoring less that 40 just once and that against #2 at the time ranked Texas. Their average margin of victory in Big 12 play is 24.4 pts per game and that is taking into account the Texas game. If you look at only their victories that figure jumps to 29 ppg.
Missouri is quite impressive offensively also averaging 40 points per game but with the 3 losses an average margin of 14 points. Good, but not extraordinary.
This season, OU was 9-2 ATS as a favorite, Mizzou 0-1 ATS as a dog. OU 6-2 ATS in conference, Mizzou 3-5. Only time OU did not cover the spread as a favorite this year was in 14 point (-19) victory over Kansas, one of the teams that beat Missouri.
Oklahoma is in the midst of an offensive streak the likes of which we havent seen in quite some time in major college football. They just beat OSU by 20 points on the road. The game before that they trounced the #2 in the country and shut down the explosive Texas Tech offense. In my opinion both those teams are better than Missouri. Missouri was just a 3 point dog last year and lost by 3 touchdowns. Vegas expected a close game and got a 38-17 game. This year they expect a 38-17 type game and I think it will get ugly. OU has won by 21, 14 and 39 in its last three trips to the Big 12 Championship game. "Big Game Bob" puts a hurting on Mizzou this weekend in Kansas City.
134 Oklahoma -16 10 Units Lines are from 5dimes.com
Good luck everyone.
My reasoning if anyone is interested. Warning tho, its long.
This selection started to take shape way back on October 11. That was the weekend that Oklahoma played Texas and lost 45-35. It was also the weekend that Missouri lost to Oklahoma State 28-23 and the weekend Texas Tech beat Nebraska 37-31. For me it was the weekend that the contenders and the pretenders separated themselves from each other in what I believe is the most powerful conference in football by far (with my apologies to all the SEC fans out there). Not to say that I thought Oklahoma was a "pretender" because they lost because thats far from the case. They had already beaten a real good TCU team by that point and were averaging over 40 points per game. That game increased my perception of Texas rather than detract from my perception of Oklahoma. It was after this weekend that I came to the conclusion that my GOY selection, my only 10 unit selection in college football for the year, would come from this conference. It took til about midnight on November 22 to come to the conclusion that this selection would come out of the Big 12 Championship Game specifically because it was at that point that I figured Oklahoma would beat State handily and the BCS system would reward them with a spot in the Championship game. Afterall, historically, the BCS does not put a great deal of emphasis, for whatever reason, on head to head matchups and even more in the Sooners favor was the fact that the OU/Texas game was played 6 weeks ago. Then why wasnt this selection on OU vs OSU? Two reasons: First is that the game was on the road and I didnt want my only 10 unit play for the year going against a team that was undefeated SU and ATS at home which OSU was. Secondly, it was already established at that point that Missouri was in the Championship game out of the North and the matchup whether it was OU or Texas playing them was more favorable to me than the two South teams against each other. Turns out OU did win and cover and I posted them on Saturday as my first 5 unit play up to this point.
Last year the game was played in San Antonio with the same two teams squaring off. The exact location of the game doesnt mean too much to me handicapping wise because both schools get the same ticket allotment and sell their full allotment. If there is a small disparity percentage wise in number of fans because one school's fans gave up more tickets than the other then so be it. Whats more important to me than location is the fact that Missouri was ranked #1 in the AP and Oklahoma #9. Oklahoma already had beaten them but that was much earlier in the year and it was in Norman and it was by only 10. And last year OU wasnt averaging 50+ points per game. And what happened? Missouri stayed with them for a half and OU outscored them 24-3 in the second to win by 3 td's. Does that sound familiar? A little bit like last week to me. Missouri did all they could to keep the ball out of Bradford's hands, Missouri used 10 play, 8 play and 10 play drives in the first half to get their 14 points and that was before he was putting up the completely astronomic numbers he has this year along with Murray and Demarco at RB. Missouri used 10 play, 8 play and 10 play drives in the first half to get their 14 points. Point being about last year is that Missouri was a better team last year both statistics and record wise than they were this year and Oklahoma is a better team this year statistics and record wise than they were last year with the core of each team being mostly the same. Maybe the league caught up with Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin a bit and Coach Pinkell's methods of using those two outstanding players, while OU has gone in the opposite direction with them creating a huge gap on the offensive side of the ball particulary between them and the rest of the league. Sure Texas Tech put up great numbers all year but OU shut them down. Even in the Sooners loss to Texas they produced 435 yards of offensive, none of which was in garbage time, which is very far from being shut down. In fact Texas' final score margin of 10 points was greater than their yardage margin of 3 yards.
Now down to the nitty gritty.
Sooners rank #8 in the nation in pass efficienty defense.
Missouri ranks #71. (Philsteele.com)
Pass efficiency d ranking take into account yardage, comp pctg, total interceptions, percentage of ints per pass, total tds, td rate,yards per attempt and yards per completion. A much more detailed and useful category than "pass d" which just allows for yards given up.
Power ratings: OU 160-Mizzou 147 (Philsteele.com)
Strength of Schedule OU #1-Mizzou #38 (CBS Sportsline)
Turnover Margin OU 2-Mizzou 55
Total Defense OU 66 Mizzou 91 (Neither have top notch statistics here but Oklahoma has given up far more "garbage time" yards and scores than Missouri has. Also, due to the potency and quick strike characteristics of the Sooners offensive, they allow opponents more possessions per game which will only impact negatively on total defense statistics.
In looking at common opponents, OU has beaten two teams that Missouri lost to while Missouri has beaten 0 opponents that Oklahoma lost to (didnt play Texas). Oklahoma has also beaten each team that Missouri has beaten by a wider margin than Missouri, with the exception of one game which Missouri won by 35 and OU won by 34.
Oklahoma is an offensive machine, pure and simple. And Missouri are no slouches in that department either I grant you, but they not what Oklahoma is. Oklahoma has not scored less than 58 points in its last 5 games and has scored over 60 in 4 straight. They average 55 points per game in Big 12 play and scoring less that 40 just once and that against #2 at the time ranked Texas. Their average margin of victory in Big 12 play is 24.4 pts per game and that is taking into account the Texas game. If you look at only their victories that figure jumps to 29 ppg.
Missouri is quite impressive offensively also averaging 40 points per game but with the 3 losses an average margin of 14 points. Good, but not extraordinary.
This season, OU was 9-2 ATS as a favorite, Mizzou 0-1 ATS as a dog. OU 6-2 ATS in conference, Mizzou 3-5. Only time OU did not cover the spread as a favorite this year was in 14 point (-19) victory over Kansas, one of the teams that beat Missouri.
Oklahoma is in the midst of an offensive streak the likes of which we havent seen in quite some time in major college football. They just beat OSU by 20 points on the road. The game before that they trounced the #2 in the country and shut down the explosive Texas Tech offense. In my opinion both those teams are better than Missouri. Missouri was just a 3 point dog last year and lost by 3 touchdowns. Vegas expected a close game and got a 38-17 game. This year they expect a 38-17 type game and I think it will get ugly. OU has won by 21, 14 and 39 in its last three trips to the Big 12 Championship game. "Big Game Bob" puts a hurting on Mizzou this weekend in Kansas City.
134 Oklahoma -16 10 Units Lines are from 5dimes.com
Good luck everyone.
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