NCAAF Week 13 Trends and Indexes 11/18 through 11/23

[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel - Fri.


Buffalo at Bowling Green
The Bulls are 18-8 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons, while Bowling Green is 3-10 ATS in home games. Buffalo is the underdog pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the game even. Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+4). Here are all of this week's picks.

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 21

Game 109-110: Miami (OH) at Toledo
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 66.856; Toledo 73.657
Dunkel Line: Toledo by 7; 55
Vegas Line: Toledo by 3; 51
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (-3); Over

Game 111-112: Buffalo at Bowling Green
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 80.036; Bowling Green 79.706
Dunkel Line: Even; 58
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 4; 55
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+4); Over

Game 113-114: Fresno State at San Jose State
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 78.778; San Jose State 80.124
Dunkel Line: San Jose State by 1 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 4; 50
Dunkel Pick: San Jose State (+4); Under

[Udog]

NCAAF


Friday, November 21


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Tips and Trends
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Fresno State at San Jose State [ESPN2 | 9:30 PM ET]

Fresno State (-3.5, O/U 49): The Bulldogs are bowl eligible but likely need to win one of their last two games in order to get an invite. Because they face Boise State in the regular-season finale, winning this game is very important if they want to reach that goal. Fresno is hoping that RB Lonyae Miller will be able to play more than last week when he carried the ball just twice and fumbled after aggravating his leg injury. Miller's play will be crucial since fellow RB Ryan Matthews remains out with a knee injury.

Fresno is 5-22 ATS in its last 27 games on grass.
The UNDER is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.

Key Injuries - RB Lonyae Miller (leg) is probable.
FB Isaac Kinter (leg) is questionable.
DL Cornell Banks (undisclosed) is questionable.
RB Ryan Matthews (knee) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27

San Jose State: A victory against rival Fresno State would likely send the Spartans to a bowl game while also preventing the Bulldogs from going to one. “This is a huge game for us,” San Jose State head coach Dick Tomey said. "It couldn’t be more important unless we were playing for a conference championship.” Tomey's team could be without QB Kyle Reed, who is trying to play through a groin injury and will be a game-time decision. Starting RB Yonus Davis will try to play though after missing the last three games.

San Jose State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 home games.
The UNDER is 20-6-1 in San Jose's last 27 conference games.

Key Injuries - QB Kyle Reed (groin) is doubtful.
RB Yonus Davis (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24


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[Udog]

NCAAF


Sunday, November 23


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Tips and Trends
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Connecticut at South Florida [ESPN | 8:15 PM ET]

UConn: The Huskies still have an outside shot at the Big East title but are definitely in better position than their opponent, who has dropped three straight conference games. However, that's not to say that UConn hasn't been dealing with any distractions. Huskies head coach Randy Edsall has denied interest in returning to his alma mater Syracuse, and they are still trying to build up QB Tyler Lorenzen's confidence after he returned from a foot injury last week. Lorenzen was just 7-of-15 passing for 70 yards in a 39-14 win over the Orange last Saturday.

UConn is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games on grass.
The OVER is 4-1 in UConn's last 5 games overall.

Key Injuries - CB Darius Butler (knee) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 23

South Florida (-3, O/U 48.5): It's been a very disappointing season for the Bulls, who were one of the preseason favorites to win the Big East. Instead, they sit at 1-4 in conference play and look to bounce back from their worst loss ever at home. South Florida is favored for the 17th straight time against a Division I-A opponent and is just 8-8 straight-up in the previous 16 games. “If we’re 6-6, I don’t think we’ll go to a bowl,” USF quarterback Matt Grothe said. “Our goal is now to make it to one.”

South Florida is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games vs. teams with a winning record.
The OVER is 7-1 in South Florida's last 8 home games.

Key Injuries - QB Matt Grothe (ankle) is probable.
RB Mike Ford (hamstring) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel - Sun.


Connecticut at South Florida
South Florida is just 2-7 ATS this season as a favorite and runs into a UConn team that is 5-1 ATS on the road over the last three seasons when the total is between 42 1/2 and 49 points. The Huskies are the underdog pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has Connecticut favored straight up by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 23

Game 223-224: Connecticut at South Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 91.742; South Florida 90.264
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 1 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: South Florida by 3; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+3); Under

[Udog]

NCAAF
Short Sheet


Sunday, November 23rd

Connecticut at South Florida, 8:00 ET
Connecticut: 1-6 ATS off win by 21+ points
South Florida: 8-2 Under after gaining 100 rushing yds or less

** (TC) Denotes Time Change