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NCAAF Week 11 Trends and Indexes 11/4 through 11/8

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  • #16
    College Football – Tips and Trends

    NCAAF


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Tips and Trends
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Thursday, November 6

    #23 Maryland at Virginia Tech [ESPN | 7:30 PM ET]

    Maryland: The Terps expect to have leading rusher Da'Rel Scott back for this key ACC matchup at Virginia Tech. Scott originally injured his shoulder on September 13th against Cal and then re-injured it in a 27-24 win over North Carolina State on October 25th. He rushed for 163 yards in that game but has totaled just 148 in three games since then. “I see Da’Rel maturing on almost a daily basis,” Maryland head coach Ralph Friedgen said. “I see him turning into a leader on our team.”

    Maryland is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road games.
    The UNDER is 10-4 in Maryland's last 14 games overall.

    Key Injuries - RB Da'Rel Scott (shoulder) is probable.
    LB Dave Philistin (shoulder) is questionable.

    PROJECTED SCORE: 20

    Virginia Tech (-3, O/U 42): The status of QBs Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor remains in question as both continue to recover from ankle injuries. The Hokies may have to turn to fifth-year senior Cory Holt, who was 3-of-6 passing for 28 yards and a touchdown as a replacement for Glennon after was knocked out in the third quarter of a 30-20 loss to Florida State on October 25. “He had been working as a wide receiver all week,” coach Frank Beamer said of Holt. “It’s a credit to him that he came in and made a couple of plays, battled, picked up a nice first down, made a nice throw, did a nice job.”

    Virginia Tech is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 Thursday games.
    The UNDER is 10-2 in Virginia Tech's last 12 home games.

    Key Injuries - QB Sean Glennon (ankle) is questionable.
    QB Tyrod Taylor (ankle) is doubtful.
    FS Lorenzo Williams (undisclosed) is OUT.

    PROJECTED SCORE: 23



    #12 TCU at #8 Utah [CBSC | 8 PM ET]

    TCU (-2, O/U 43): The Horned Frogs realize their slim chances of earning a BCS bid go through Utah. After topping BYU 32-7 back on October 16th (also a Thursday night game), TCU has an opportunity to hand another team its first loss in the Utes, who have won nine straight home games and are a perfect 9-0 so far this season. “You always want to play in the big arena,” TCU head coach Gary Patterson said. “Utah is a good football team - lot better at home. We’ve got a lot of work to do. We have to get everyone healed up and ready to go.”

    TCU is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall.
    The OVER is 6-2 in TCU's last 8 November games.

    Key Injuries - RB Joseph Turner (undisclosed) is questionable.

    PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

    Utah: The Utes are off to their best start since they went 12-0 in 2004, and they hope to build off one of their closest game of the season. Utah edged New Mexico 13-10 last Saturday, scoring the team's lone touchdown with 3:23 left in the third quarter on a pass from QB Brian Johnson to WR Jereme Brooks, who pitched it to Brent Casteel for the score. The Utes could be in for a similar game here, as TCU ranks third in the nation in scoring defense (giving up 10.8 points per game) and second in total defense (allowing 214.5 yards per game).

    Utah is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 November games.
    The OVER is 8-1 in Utah's last 9 games overall.

    Key Injuries - LB Kepa Gaison (knee) is probable.

    PROJECTED SCORE: 23

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Comment


    • #17
      NCAAF
      Dunkel - Thursday



      When Dunkel Index posts today's write-up and pod, we'll add it.


      THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 6

      Game 111-112: TCU at Utah
      Dunkel Ratings: TCU 103.284; Utah 104.794
      Dunkel Line: Utah by 1 1/2; 37
      Vegas Line: TCU by 2; 43 1/2
      Dunkel Pick: Utah (+2); Under

      Game 109-110: Maryland at Virginia Tech
      Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 90.612; Virginia Tech 97.583
      Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 7; 44
      Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 2 1/2; 42 1/2
      Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-2 1/2); Over
      Last edited by Udog; 11-06-2008, 09:46 AM.

      Comment


      • #18
        NCAAF
        Dunkel - Thursday


        Write-up and POD


        Maryland at Virginia Tech
        The Hokies return home after two straight road losses and will look to take advantage of a Maryland team that is 0-5 ATS since 1993 in road games where the total is under 42. Virginia Tech is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Hokies favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-2 1/2). Here are all of this week's games.

        Comment


        • #19
          NCAAF
          Dunkel - Fri. & Sat.



          When Dunkel Index posts the write-ups and pod's for Fri. and Sat., we'll add them.


          FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 7

          Game 113-114: Nevada at Fresno State
          Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 83.442; Fresno State 88.498
          Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 5; 65
          Vegas Line: Fresno State by 1 1/2; 70 1/2
          Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (-1 1/2); Under




          SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 8

          Game 115-116: Syracuse at Rutgers
          Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 77.631; Rutgers 89.372
          Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 12; 53
          Vegas Line: Rutgers by 14 1/2; 49 1/2
          Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (+14 1/2); Over

          Game 117-118: Wisconsin at Indiana
          Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 89.424; Indiana 81.924
          Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 7 1/2; 46
          Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 9 1/2; 51 1/2
          Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+9 1/2); Under

          Game 119-120: Ohio State at Northwestern
          Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 101.664; Northwestern 94.798
          Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 7; 47
          Vegas Line: Ohio State by 11; 42 1/2
          Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (+11); Over

          Game 121-122: Purdue at Michigan State
          Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 83.925; Michigan State 97.486
          Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 13 1/2; 49
          Vegas Line: Michigan State by 9; 51
          Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-9); Under

          Game 123-124: Georgia Tech at North Carolina
          Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 91.843; North Carolina 100.958
          Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 9; 36
          Vegas Line: North Carolina by 3 1/2; 43 1/2
          Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-3 1/2); Under

          Game 125-126: Illinois at Western Michigan
          Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 91.587; Western Michigan 83.532
          Dunkel Line: Illinois by 8; 67
          Vegas Line: Illinois by 7; 61
          Dunkel Pick: Illinois (-7); Over

          Game 127-128: Virginia at Wake Forest
          Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 90.507; Wake Forest 90.701
          Dunkel Line: Even; 42
          Vegas Line: Wake Forest by 3 1/2; 39
          Dunkel Pick: Virginia (+3 1/2); Over

          Game 129-130: NC State at Duke
          Dunkel Ratings: NC State 81.339; Duke 89.865
          Dunkel Line: Duke by 8 1/2; 42
          Vegas Line: Duke by 3 1/2; 48
          Dunkel Pick: Duke (-3 1/2); Under

          Game 131-132: Oklahoma State at Texas Tech
          Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 109.865; Texas Tech 109.906
          Dunkel Line: Even; 77
          Vegas Line: Texas Tech by 3 1/2; 74
          Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (+3 1/2); Over

          Game 133-134: Florida at Vanderbilt
          Dunkel Ratings: Florida 112.107; Vanderbilt 92.356
          Dunkel Line: Florida by 20; 56
          Vegas Line: Florida by 24; 50
          Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (+24); Over

          Game 135-136: Arkansas at South Carolina
          Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas 92.752; South Carolina 102.631
          Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 10; 48
          Vegas Line: South Carolina by 12; 45 1/2
          Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (+12); Over

          Game 137-138: Georgia at Kentucky
          Dunkel Ratings: Georgia 102.127; Kentucky 93.961
          Dunkel Line: Georgia by 8; 41
          Vegas Line: Georgia by 10 1/2; 44 1/2
          Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+10 1/2); Under

          Game 139-140: Bowling Green at Ohio
          Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 74.694; Ohio 75.519
          Dunkel Line: Ohio by 1; 54
          Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 3; 50 1/2
          Dunkel Pick: Ohio (+3); Over

          Game 141-142: San Diego State at BYU
          Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 61.831; BYU 103.530
          Dunkel Line: BYU by 41 1/2; 57
          Vegas Line: BYU by 36 1/2; 59
          Dunkel Pick: BYU (-36 1/2); Under

          Game 143-144: Utah State at Boise State
          Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 67.158; Boise State 107.887
          Dunkel Line: Boise State by 40 1/2; 57
          Vegas Line: Boise State by 35; 50
          Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-35); Over

          Game 145-146: Oklahoma at Texas A&M
          Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 112.920; Texas A&M 89.316
          Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 23 1/2; 68
          Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 27; 72
          Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (+27); Under

          Game 147-148: Army at Rice
          Dunkel Ratings: Army 71.854; Rice 86.206
          Dunkel Line: Rice by 14 1/2; 64
          Vegas Line: Rice by 11; 59
          Dunkel Pick: Rice (-11); Over

          Game 149-150: Iowa State at Colorado
          Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 77.430; Colorado 89.312
          Dunkel Line: Colorado by 12; 50
          Vegas Line: Colorado by 9 1/2; 53
          Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-9 1/2); Under

          Game 151-152: Memphis at SMU
          Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 77.104; SMU 73.255
          Dunkel Line: Memphis by 4; 70
          Vegas Line: Memphis by 2; 63
          Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-2); Over

          Game 153-154: Kansas State at Missouri
          Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 85.676; Missouri 114.023
          Dunkel Line: Missouri by 28 1/2; 78
          Vegas Line: Missouri by 27; 74
          Dunkel Pick: Missouri (-27); Over

          Game 155-156: Clemson at Florida State
          Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 91.174; Florida State 100.656
          Dunkel Line: Florida State by 9 1/2; 37
          Vegas Line: Florida State by 5 1/2; 42 1/2
          Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-5 1/2); Under

          Game 157-158: Marshall at East Carolina
          Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 79.765; East Carolina 83.572
          Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 4; 48
          Vegas Line: East Carolina by 8; 44
          Dunkel Pick: Marshall (+8); Over

          Game 159-160: Kansas at Nebraska
          Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 95.465; Nebraska 100.140
          Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 5; 66
          Vegas Line: Nebraska by 1; 69 1/2
          Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (-1); Under

          Game 161-162: Penn State at Iowa
          Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 110.000; Iowa 98.981
          Dunkel Line: Penn State by 11; 39
          Vegas Line: Penn State by 7 1/2; 42 1/2
          Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-7 1/2); Under

          Game 163-164: Notre Dame at Boston College
          Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 91.636; Boston College 96.946
          Dunkel Line: Boston College by 5 1/2; 41
          Vegas Line: Boston College by 3; 45
          Dunkel Pick: Boston College (-3); Under

          Game 165-166: Wyoming at Tennessee
          Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 66.027; Tennessee 98.142
          Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 32; 36
          Vegas Line: Tennessee by 27; 39
          Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-27); Under

          Game 167-168: Alabama at LSU
          Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 105.106; LSU 102.819
          Dunkel Line: Alabama by 2; 42
          Vegas Line: Alabama by 3 1/2; 48
          Dunkel Pick: LSU (+3 1/2); Under

          Game 169-170: Stanford at Oregon
          Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 91.822; Oregon 102.261
          Dunkel Line: Oregon by 10 1/2; 58
          Vegas Line: Oregon by 14; 54
          Dunkel Pick: Stanford (+14); Over

          Game 171-172: Arizona State at Washington
          Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 88.980; Washington 78.862
          Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 10; 44
          Vegas Line: Arizona State by 14 1/2; 49
          Dunkel Pick: Washington (+14 1/2); Under

          Game 173-174: Hawaii at New Mexico State
          Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 80.907; New Mexico State 75.739
          Dunkel Line: Hawaii by 5; 57
          Vegas Line: Hawaii by 3; 54
          Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (-3); Over

          Game 175-176: Tulane at Houston
          Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 72.799; Houston 87.417
          Dunkel Line: Houston by 14 1/2; 52
          Vegas Line: Houston by 16; 56 1/2
          Dunkel Pick: Tulane (+16); Under

          Game 177-178: Colorado State at Air Force
          Dunkel Ratings: Colorado State 78.971; Air Force 91.834
          Dunkel Line: Air Force by 13; 45
          Vegas Line: Air Force by 9 1/2; 51
          Dunkel Pick: Air Force (-9 1/2); Under

          Game 179-180: Oregon State at UCLA
          Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 100.630; UCLA 94.688
          Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 6; 47
          Vegas Line: Oregon State by 8; 52 1/2
          Dunkel Pick: UCLA (+8); Under

          Game 181-182: Arizona at Washington State
          Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 100.651; Washington State 64.650
          Dunkel Line: Arizona by 36; 64
          Vegas Line: Arizona by 41; 59
          Dunkel Pick: Washington State (+41); Over

          Game 183-184: Southern Mississippi at Central Florida
          Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 77.508; Central Florida 77.832
          Dunkel Line: Even; 46
          Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 3; 49 1/2
          Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (+3); Under

          Game 185-186: Baylor at Texas
          Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 87.312; Texas 119.591
          Dunkel Line: Texas by 32; 70
          Vegas Line: Texas by 27 1/2; 66
          Dunkel Pick: Texas (-27 1/2); Over

          Game 187-188: Cincinnati at West Virginia
          Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 90.086; West Virginia 98.467
          Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 8 1/2; 50
          Vegas Line: West Virginia by 7; 44
          Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-7); Over

          Game 189-190: Louisville at Pittsburgh
          Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 87.013; Pittsburgh 95.555
          Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 8 1/2; 50
          Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 6; 55
          Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-6); Under

          Game 191-192: Michigan at Minnesota
          Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 82.039; Minnesota 92.940
          Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 11; 44
          Vegas Line: Minnesota by 7 1/2; 47
          Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-7 1/2); Under

          Game 193-194: California at USC
          Dunkel Ratings: California 97.602; USC 122.738
          Dunkel Line: USC by 25; 48
          Vegas Line: USC by 20 1/2; 52 1/2
          Dunkel Pick: USC (-20 1/2); Under

          Game 195-196: Louisiana Tech at San Jose State
          Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 75.653; San Jose State 86.120
          Dunkel Line: San Jose State by 10 1/2; 40
          Vegas Line: San Jose State by 7; 42
          Dunkel Pick: San Jose State (-7); Under

          Game 197-198: New Mexico at UNLV
          Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 84.452; UNLV 82.002
          Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 2 1/2; 45
          Vegas Line: New Mexico by 3 1/2; 49
          Dunkel Pick: UNLV (+3 1/2); Under

          Game 199-200: Western Kentucky at Troy
          Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 68.483; Troy 83.851
          Dunkel Line: Troy by 15 1/2; 50
          Vegas Line: Troy by 16 1/2; 55
          Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (+16 1/2); Under

          Game 201-202: North Texas at Florida Atlantic
          Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 52.267; Florida Atlantic 76.569
          Dunkel Line: Florida Atlantic by 24 1/2; 72
          Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic by 22 1/2; 68 1/2
          Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (-22 1/2); Over

          Game 203-204: UTEP at UL-Lafayette
          Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 78.050; UL-Lafayette 85.511
          Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 7 1/2; 65
          Vegas Line: UL-Lafayette by 9; 72
          Dunkel Pick: UTEP (+9); Under

          Game 205-206: Arkansas State at Florida International
          Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 76.253; Florida International 78.669
          Dunkel Line: Florida International by 2 1/2; 47
          Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 2 1/2; 51
          Dunkel Pick: Florida International (+2 1/2); Under

          Game 207-208: UL-Monroe at Middle Tennessee State
          Dunkel Ratings: UL-Monroe 69.840; Middle Tennessee
          State 77.491
          Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 7 1/2; 46
          Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 4 1/2; 51 1/2
          Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (-4 1/2); Under
          Last edited by Udog; 11-06-2008, 10:21 AM.

          Comment


          • #20
            Won’t Get That Lucky Again:
            Play against any NFL favorite off a double-digit win in
            which it overcame a negative turnover differential.


            Pointspread Record Since 1990:
            74-50 (59.6%)


            This week’s application:
            New York Giants (play against Eagles)



            Defensive Favorite:
            Play on any NFL favorite coming off a road shutout win in their
            last game in which they scored 21 points or more.


            Pointspread Record Since 1984
            : 23-14 (62.2%)


            This week’s application:
            Atlanta Falcons



            OT Loser:
            Play against any college conference home favorite off an overtime loss in
            their last game.


            Pointspread Record since 1996 OT Rule:
            36-18-2 (67%)


            This week’s application:
            NC State (play against Duke)

            Comment


            • #21
              College Football – Write up

              NCAAF
              Write-up


              --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

              Friday, November 7

              Fresno won four of last five vs. Nevada, winning last two played here, 54-17/28-19; Bulldog defense has gone south, allowing 35.8 pg in last six games- they're 0-6 as a favorite in '08. Nevada is 0-3 when it scores less than 44 points, but they've scored 44+ in four of last five games. WAC home favorites are 6-4 against the spread. Five of last six Fresno games went over the total.


              Saturday, November 8

              Top 13 Games

              Georgia Tech won four of last five vs. North Carolina, winning last three by 27-21/7-0/27-25 scores; underdog covered last four series games. Tech has 12 takeaways in last four games- they beat Florida State 31-28 last week, forcing fumble on 2-yard line in last minute. UNC won four of last five games, is 3-4 as home favorite under Davis. Tech is 5-1 in last six tries as an underdog.

              Virginia won three in row, 20 of last 21 vs. Wake Forest, with last four all decided by four or less points. Wake is 2-3 in last five games, with wins by 5-3 points; last week was first time in six games they scored more than 17 points. Virginia had 4-game win streak snapped in OT by Miami; they covered last four tries as an underdog. ACC home favorites are just 8-13 vs spread this year.

              Home side won last five Oklahoma State-Texas Tech games, with OSU losing last two visits here, 31-15/30-24; Gundy's memorable tirade against a writer came after this game LY. Tech had last-second win vs. Texas last week; Cowboys lost 28-24 at Texas the week before, their only loss this season. Big 12 home favorites are 10-8 vs. spread. Average total in last five series games is 67.

              Home side won four of last five Georgia-Kentucky games, but Dawgs lost last visit here, 24-20; interesting to see how Georgia bounces back from 49-10 thrashing by Florida- they allowed 87 points in last two games. Wildcats are 2-3 in last five games, with both wins by one point- their losses this year are by 3-7-58 points (63-5 at Florida). SEC home dogs are just 5-7 vs. spread this year.

              Bobby Bowden vs. team that just fired his son-Clemson won four of last five vs. Florida State, losing last visit here 27-20. Tigers won at BC last week despite not picking off pass for 4th game in row (-10 TO ratio during that span). FSU fumbled on 2-yard line in last minute last week at Georgia Tech, with chance to win game- they're 4-1 in their last five games, Clemson snapped 3-game skid last week.

              Nebraska was down 28-0 at Oklahoma after 5:33 last week, lost 62-28; Huskers lost 76-39 at Kansas LY, in game that was 48-24 at half. Home side won last four series games, with Jayhawks losing last two visits here, 14-8/39-32. Nebraska scored 31.5 pg in last four games, but split the four- they lost two of last three at home. Average total in last six lined Kansas games is a hefty 69.3.

              Iowa won two of last three meetings with Penn State, but Lions are on roll this season, are off bye here, while Hawkeyes had tough loss at Illinois last week. If you're Paterno and your team is 3rd in BCS, you need to win by fairly big score here, no? Iowa is 5-4, but none of its losses are by more than five points. PSU's road wins this year are by 42-14-41-7 points. Big 11 home dogs are 3-9 this season.

              Boston College won last five games vs. Notre Dame, with dog covering last three; BC lost to Clemson last week (trailed 17-0 at half), while Irish blew 14-point third quarter lead and lost to Pitt in OT. Eagles lost last two games, allowing 72 points- their total offense in last three games is 300-244-236, but they have scored pair of special teams TDs. Best team Irish have beaten is still Stanford, but they have averaged 31.2 pg in their last five games.

              Nick Saban returns to Baton Rouge with #1-ranked (first time since '82) Alabama, in series where Tigers won last five meetings, winning 26-10/28-14 in last two games played here. LSU been struggling, allowing 50+ points in two of last four games- they took redshirt of freshman QB Jefferson last week, have allowed five defensive TDs in last six games. SEC home teams are 10-20 vs. spread in league games, 5-7 if underdog.

              West Virginia won last five games after 1-2 start, with only one win by less than 11 points- they outscored last five foes 82-7 in second half. WVa won three of last four vs Cincinnati, winning last two 42-24/28-23. Bearcats are 6-2; they were outscored 61-16 in second half of the losses, outscored their victims 72-40 after halftime. Underdogs are 12-2 vs. spread in Big East play this year.

              Louisville won last three games vs. Pitt, 42-20/48-24/24-17, but Cardinals lost at Syracuse last week, while Pitt was winning in OT at Notre Dame, so obvious difference in mood here. Defensive-minded Wannstedt has offense that scored 38 pg in last three games, but hard to trust any defense that allowed Rutgers QB Teel 311 passing yards and five TDs in a single half. Big East home favorites are 1-6 vs. spread this season.

              Michigan is staying home for the holidays for the first time since mid-70's; they've lost five in row, six oftheir last seven games and trailed 19-0 at half in game they won. Minnesota blew shot at the inside track for Rose Bowl (should Penn State make the BCS title game) when they lost at home to Northwestern; Gophers are 3-6-1 vs. spread in last ten home games. Michigan won their last two visits here, 38-35/28-14.

              USC won last four meetings with Cal, but only one of four was by more than 14 points, as Bears hung within 23-17/23-9 in last two visits here. Cal is 6-2, but they imploded in last two road games, allowing 77 points in losses at Maryland, Arizona. Trojans have revenge date at Stanford on deck- they outscored last five foes 214-20 since losing at Oregon State. Pac-10 home faves are 12-3 against the spread.


              Knowledge for rest of card

              -- Rutgers won last four games vs. Syracuse, winning last two played here, 24-7/38-7; Knights won last two games after 1-5 start, exploding for 54 points at Pitt in last game before their bye. Orange upset Louisville last week; they're 3-5 vs. spread in last eight road games.

              -- Wisconsin won last two games vs. Indiana, 52-17/33-3; Badgers blew game last week, losing 25-24 at Michigan State, their fifth loss in last six games, even though they had 281-25 edge on the ground. Hoosiers lost six of last seven games, losing to Central Michigan of MAC at home last week.

              -- Ohio State pounded Northwestern in last three meetings, 48-7/ 54-10/56-7. Backup QB Kafka ran for 200+ yards last week, setting school record for quarterback, as Wildcats upset Minnesota with defensive score in last 1:00. Big 11 home underdogs are 3-9 against the spread so far this season.

              -- Purdue snapped its five-game skid when it outlasted Michigan 48-42 last week, outgaining Wolverines 522-300. Michigan State won eight of last nine after miraculous comeback vs. Wisconsin last week. Spartans allowed 27.5 pg in last four games. Big 11 home favorites are 7-10 against the spread.

              -- Illinois kicked 46-yard FG to nip Iowa last week, needs this win to get bowl eligible. Big 11 favorites are 9-15 out of conference this year. Western Michigan won seven of last eight games, covered three of last four as an underdog. MAC road dogs are 20-12 vs. spread in non-MAC games this season.

              -- NC State won last ten games vs. Duke, but Wolfpack lost last four games, giving up 33 pg- they've covered five of last six as a dog though. Duke lost in OT at Wake Forest last week; their third loss in last four games. State covered five of last seven on the road. ACC home favorites are 8-13 vs. spread.

              -- Florida won last five meetings vs. Vanderbilt, willing last two trips here, 34-17/25-19; Vandy is stuck on five wins after 10-7 home loss to Duke last time out, their third loss in row (by 3-10-3). Gators outscored last four opponents by combined score of 201-43, as they to climb back up ladder and get to BCS title game.

              -- South Carolina hired DC Johnson away from Arkansas last winter; Gamecocks got bowl-eligible with last week's win, but QB Garcia is ?? here (knee). Arkansas handed Tulsa its first loss last week; Hogs covered last four games, with last two losses by total of three points. SEC home favorites are 5-13 against spread.

              -- Visitor won last three Bowling Green-Ohio games, with Falcons winning last couple visits here, 41-16/21-9. Bobcats lost three of last four games; their last two were ESPN Tuesday nite telecasts, so they've had few extra days to prepare for this. MAC home dogs are 4-6 vs. spread this season.

              -- BYU has struggled of late, giving up 36.3 pg in last three games, beating UNLV, Colorado State by 7-3 points in last two; Cougars won four of last five vs. San Diego State, winning last two played here, 49-16/47-17. Aztecs lost last five games (1-4 vs. spread), with four of the five losses by 25+ points.

              -- Boise State won last three games vs Utah State, 45-21/49-10/52-0; Broncos outscored last five opponents 69-7 in second half, and held the last four foes under 290 yards- they're 5-3 in last eight tries as favorite at home. Aggies are 1-3 as road underdog this season but did get second win of season last week, upsetting Hawai'i in Logan.

              -- Oklahoma won last five games vs Texas A&M, but struggled in last two visits to College Station, 42-35/17-16. Sooners scored 160 points in three games since losing to Texas- they're 3-0 on road this year, winning by 41-32-23 points. Aggies won last two games after 2-5 start- they are 5-7 vs spread in last dozen games as underdog.

              -- Rice is already bowl-eligible; they won last three games, scoring 45.3 ppg in those wins- they're 4-0 vs spread as favorite this year. Army has covered five of last six games, going 3-2 SU in last five- they had one of their big rivalry games last week losing 16-7 at home to Air Force. Home faves from C-USA are 5-4 vs spread out of conference.

              -- Home team won last four Iowa State-Colorado games, with Cyclones losing last two visits to Boulder, 19-14/33-16. Buffs lost five of last six games, with only win 14-13 vs K-State team that just fired its coach, so hard to lay double digits here. Iowa State lost last six games, failing to cover its last four, losing by 28-28-14-42 points.

              -- SMU lost 55-52 in OT at Memphis LY, in game with 1,103 yards of total offense. Mustangs are 0-8 vs D-I foes, but are 3-1-1 vs spread in last five. Memphis needs 2-1 finish to be bowl eligible; they've only had three INTs in last seven games, could struggles vs Jones' offense. C-USA home underdogs are 9-3 vs spread this season.

              -- Weird time for Kansas State to fire its coach; they lost last two games to Missouri, 41-21/49-32, and lost last two weeks, giving up 58-52 pts vs Oklahoma-Kansas-- Mizzou is no less formidable on offense. Tigers scored 89 points in winning last two games since losses to Oklahoma St, Texas. Big 12 home favorites are 10-8 against the spread.

              -- Home side won last two East Carolina-Marshall games; Herd lost last visit to Greenville, 33-20 (+7), but they did upset Houston in last game, snapping 3-game skid. Marshall is 1-3 on road, with losses by 37-24-2 points. ECU won ugly Sunday night game in OT at UCF-- the next win gets Pirates bowl eligible.

              -- Tennessee fired Phil Fulmer this week, so players have to be little bit in shock; lucky for them, a horrible Wyoming team is visiting, fresh off a rare win, 35-10 vs San Diego State. SEC home favorites are 11-9 vs the spread in non-league games. Mountain West road dogs are 4-5.

              -- Oregon won last five games vs Stanford, as Cardinal lost last two trips to Eugene, 35-0/48-10. Ducks are +7 in turnovers in last five games, but with sub QBs playing, are struggling vs quality foes, losing 26-16 at Cal last week, 44-10 at USC, only two games this season they scored less than 30 points. Pac-10 home favoritea are 12-3 vs spread.

              -- Washington is horrendous at 0-8, failing to cover last six games; their home losses are by 1-41-7-21-26 points, but Arizona State ain't a whole lot better, losing its last six games, with four of last five losses by ten or more points. ASU won its last three games vs Washington, winning by pair of 44-20 scores, and 26-23 in OT in last visit here.

              -- Hawai'i got upset at Utah State last week, is still on mainland, facing a New Mexico State squad that lost four of last five games, including 49-0 home loss to Boise State last week. Hawai'i won last three series games vs Aggies, winning by 49-28, 49-30, 50-13 scores.

              -- Houston won last five games vs Tulane, winning last three played here by 45-42/24-3/45-7 scores. Cougs had 3-game win streak snapped in TV game at Marshall last week; this is just their second home game vs a D-I opponent this season (beat UAB 45-20). Tulane lost last four games, by 31-3-25-25 points, but they have covered five of last six road games.

              -- Home side won four of last five Colorado State-Air Force games, with Rams losing last two visits here, 47-17/24-21; Falcons could be flat after beating Army last week, their fourth win in row (by 25-1-12-9 points), since they have BYU on deck. State scored 80 points in its last couple games, but still has lost three of last four overall (0-3 as road dog).

              -- UCLA won its last three games vs Oregon State, 51-28/40-14/25-7; Bruins covered four of last five games, winning last two at home, but did gave up two defensive scores in last game, at Cal. Beavers won three in row, five of last six games- they're 1-3 on road, winning at Washington (0-8) but losing at Stanford (36-28), Penn State (45-14), Utah (31-28).

              -- Washington State might be worst Pac-10 team of our lifetime, with its losses by 63-49-25-53-69-58 points; they're non-competitive, losing its last two games by combined score of 127-0. In second half of last three games, they've been outscored 97-0. Arizona is 5-3, get bowl eligible if they win- they've had two weeks since 17-10 home loss to USC.

              -- Central Florida lost sloppy OT game at home to East Carolina Sunday night, their third loss in row, sixth in last seven games. Road teams won their last two games vs Southern Miss, which snapped five-game when it crushed UAB 70-14 last week (was 49-14 at half). C-USA home dogs are 9-3 against the spread this season.

              -- How does Texas bounce back from tough loss in Lubbock? Longhorns won last five games vs Baylor, with Bears losing last two visits here, by 49-14/63-31 scores. Baylor lost three in row, five of last six games, but they've covered five of last seven games, three of last four on road. Texas had covered seven games in row, before the last two weeks.

              -- Home side won last three Louisiana Tech-San Jose games, with Tech losing last visit here, 44-10. San Jose won four of last five games; they're 5-1 vs spread in last six tries as a favorite. Tech is 0-4 on road this year, losing by 29-25-10-7 points- five of their six games stayed under total.

              -- New Mexico won last four games vs UNLV, winning last two visits here, 24-20/39-36ot; Lobos lost last two games, scoring 10 points both games, since crushing San Diego State 70-7. UNLV lost last five games, allowing average of 41 ppg- they have zero INTs in last six games. Home dogs are 8-5 vs spread in Mountain West games this season.

              -- Western Kentucky was first team to lose to North Texas last week, as 16-point favorites; Hilltoppers are 0-7 vs D-I foes, losing road games by 18-34-38-14 points. Troy was upset 31-30 at UL-Monroe last week and has makeup game at LSU next week- they're 8-3-1 vs spread in last 12 tries as a favorite.

              -- North Texas won 51-40 last week, their first win of year; they've lost last four games to Florida Atlantic, by 7-1-3-10 points. Seven of eight UNT losses in '08 are by 28+ points. Owls won last two games by total of five points; they covered three of last four tries as favorite. Sun Belt home favorites are 4-4 against the spread.

              -- UL-Lafayette covered its last seven games, winning last four, scoring average of 45 ppg; they lead country in scoring plays of 50+ yards, bad news for UTEP defense that allowed 126 points in losing last two games Miners are 1-5 this season when they score less than 40 points. C-USA road dogs are 6-8 against the spread in non-league games.

              -- Arkansas State won last three games vs Florida International, winning by 66-24/31-6/27-24 scores; ASU lost three of last four games, is back to its own level after getting smoked 35-0 at Alabama last week. FIU is 1-1 at home, but allowed 82 points in losing last two games, at Troy, ULL.

              -- UL-Monroe upset Troy last week; their last two games were decided by a single point each; road team won ULM's last three games against Middle Tennessee, with average total in last four series games, 66.3. Blue Raiders lost last three games, allowing 34.7 ppg- their only win in their last six games was on last-second Hail Mary vs Florida Atlantic (14-13).

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              • #22
                College Football – Tips and Trends

                NCAAF

                Friday, November 7

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                Tips and Trends
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                Nevada at Fresno State [ESPN2 | 9 PM ET]

                Nevada: The Wolf Pack is coming off a bye week, which they used to prepare for a final stretch run that could require three wins in four games in order to secure a bowl berth. They are trying to forget a 38-31 loss at Hawaii back on October 26 in which the nation's last-ranked pass defense surrendered the game-winning touchdown pass in the final minute of play. Nevada ranks first in the WAC in rush defense, but that might be meaningless in this game with both of Fresno State's top running backs doubtful.

                Nevada is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 road games.
                The OVER is 3-1 in Nevada's last 4 road games.

                Key Injuries - LB Joshua Mauga (chest) is questionable.

                PROJECTED SCORE: 34

                Fresno State (-1, O/U 70): Like Nevada, Fresno must finish strong in order to be in consideration for a bowl game. Unfortunately, the Wolf Pack's greatest strength offensively should be able to take advantage of the Bulldogs' greatest weakness defensively. Nevada ranks first in the WAC with 305.6 rushing yards per game while Fresno is giving up 208 yards per game on the ground. The pressure offensively will fall on QB Tom Brandstater, who threw for 296 yards and four touchdowns in a 38-35 loss to Louisiana Tech last week.

                Fresno State is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games overall.
                The OVER is 5-0-1 in Fresno State's last 6 games overall.

                Key Injuries - RB Ryan Matthews (knee) is doubtful.
                RB Lonyae Miller (knee) is doubtful.
                WR Marlon Moore (ankle) is questionable.

                PROJECTED SCORE: 35

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                Comment


                • #23
                  NCAAF


                  Saturday, November 8


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                  Tips and Trends
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                  #1 Alabama at #16 LSU [CBS | 3:30 PM ET]

                  Alabama (-3.5, O/U 48.5): The top-ranked Crimson Tide ended a nine-game losing streak in November with a 35-0 rout of Arkansas State last week. That shows just how far this team has come, as they had not won a game in November since 2005. Three of those losses came against the LSU Tigers, who have won five straight meetings with Alabama. How ironic that their former head coach Nick Saban will be leading the new #1 team in the country into Baton Rouge. "It ain’t going to be about me," Saban said. "It’s going to be about our players and our team. And if anybody makes it about something else, then you’re not really being fair to these players."

                  Road team is 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
                  Alabama is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games overall.

                  Key Injuries - RB Glen Coffee (biceps) is probable.
                  DT Terrence Cody (knee) is probable.

                  PROJECTED SCORE: 27

                  LSU: There will likely be a hostile environment welcoming Alabama in this key SEC showdown, but Tigers head coach Les Miles wants the focus to be more about rooting for his team than against the opposition. "I encourage them to root for us hard, not necessarily be too pointed at our opponent," Miles said Monday as LSU began preparations for what likely is the biggest game left on its schedule. "Leave our opponent alone, just root hard for LSU." The last time Saban visited Baton Rouge, he was head coach of the Miami Dolphins and treated with affection. It will be totally opposite this time around.

                  LSU is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games overall.
                  The OVER is 10-2 in LSU's last 12 conference games.

                  Key Injuries - FS Curtis Taylor (shoulder) is questionable.

                  PROJECTED SCORE: 23



                  #9 Oklahoma State at #2 Texas Tech [ABC | 8 PM ET]

                  Oklahoma State: The Cowboys totaled a season-high 610 yards in beating Texas Tech 49-45 last season, but they will be facing a much-improved Red Raiders defense this year. Regardless, Oklahoma State has proven itself as a team that can also limit the opposition and play very well on the road in winning at Missouri and losing by just four points at Texas two weeks ago. The Cowboys would love to make this a ball-control game like they did against both the Tigers and Longhorns. If they do, there's no reason they can't pull off another upset.

                  Oklahoma State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall.
                  The OVER is 17-7 in Oklahoma State's last 24 games in November.

                  Key Injuries - NONE

                  PROJECTED SCORE: 31 (UNDER - Total Play of the Day)

                  Texas Tech (-3, O/U 75): The Red Raiders are 8-0 for the first time since 1976 thanks to an unbelievable last-second upset of previously top-ranked Texas in Lubbock last Saturday. But it doesn't get any easier here against the Cowboys, who took the Longhorns to the limit in Austin the week before for the team's only loss. “I hope it’s not (difficult), but you worry,” Texas Tech head coach Mike Leach said. “We’ve done a pretty good job this year, just trying to keep everybody in perspective. Now the biggest game in history is Oklahoma State, or the history of this year, anyway.”

                  Home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
                  The OVER is 4-1 in Texas Tech's last 5 games overall.

                  Key Injuries - WR Michael Crabtree (ankle) is probable.

                  PROJECTED SCORE: 35



                  #21 California at #7 USC [ABC | 8 PM ET]

                  Cal: The Golden Bears played outstanding defensively in a 26-16 win over Oregon last week, but they will need to carry that over here if they have any hopes of pulling off the monster upset. The quarterback situation remains up in the air after starting QB Kevin Riley suffered a concussion in the first quarter against Oregon, but Nate Longshore was able to get the job done off the bench. "He’s a veteran; he’s been in a lot of games before," Cal head coach Jeff Tedford said. "Sure, coming off the bench is a little bit new for him, but it was no big deal. He got in there and had great focus."

                  Cal is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games on grass.
                  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

                  Key Injuries - QB Kevin Riley (concussion) is questionable.

                  PROJECTED SCORE: 14

                  USC (-19, O/U 54.5): The Trojans have allowed just 20 points in their last five games combined while scoring 214. The two opponents who did score were comparable to Cal in Oregon and Arizona, two teams that are battling the Golden Bears for second place in the conference. USC doesn't have such concerns about winning the Pac-10, but this team does feel the need to make a serious statement down the stretch in order to prove itself as a legitimate contender for the BCS title game. Only road games at Stanford and UCLA along with a home game against Notre Dame remain on the schedule for the Trojans after Cal.

                  USC is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games vs. teams with a winning record.
                  The UNDER is 14-3-1 in USC's last 18 home games.

                  Key Injuries - RB Joe McKnight (toe) is questionable.
                  S Kevin Ellison (knee) is OUT.

                  PROJECTED SCORE: 38 (Side Play of the Day)
                  Last edited by Udog; 11-07-2008, 12:35 PM.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    NCAAF
                    Dunkel - Saturday Pick



                    Oklahoma State at Texas Tech
                    The Red Raiders come off an emotional win over Texas and have to face an Oklahoma State team that is 8-0 ATS this season and 13-0 after scoring 50 or more points in the last game (the Cowboys beat Iowa State last week, 59-17). Oklahoma State is the underdog pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game even. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (+3 1/2).

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Saturday's List of 13: College football trend report..........


                      13) Visitor covered nine of the last dozen Cal-USC games.

                      12) Louisville won its last seven games vs Pitt, covering six of them.

                      11) Texas covered 15 of its last 22 games coming off a loss.

                      10) Oregon State lost four of last five games on grass (0-5 vs spread)

                      9) Underdog is 12-5-1 vs spread in Air Force-Colorado State series.

                      8) Oregon covered 10 of last 13 as home favorite in Pac-10 games.

                      7) Visitor is 8-2-2 vs spread in last 12 Alabama-LSU games.

                      6) Boston College won its last five games vs Notre Dame, with the underdog covering the last four.

                      5) Home side is 12-6 vs spread in Kansas State-Missouri series.

                      4) Oklahoma failed to cover its last seven visits to Texas A&M.

                      3) Kentucky covered eight of last 12 as a home underdog.

                      2) Rutgers covered 10 of last 13 tries as a double digit favorite.

                      1) Oklahoma State is 0-9-2 in last eleven visits to Texas Tech, with their last win in Lubbock coming during WWII, in 1944.

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