NFL Week 9 Including 5*

[roccodean]

NFL picks 15-7-1 going in. Will have more plays and full analysis on Denver to follow.

1*: 1/3 to 1/4 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units


Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.


5* Denver -3 over Miami
Note: This is only a 5* if Cutler is healthy-check back for updates
I don't have a "Game of the Year" because even the best bets have a chance to lose because turnovers are 75% luck, but this would be my GOY if I did. This is a game when everything has aligned! Denver is coming off a blowout loss at NE and is off a bye, while Miami is coming off a tough division win and now has to travel cross country to Mile High. This is going to be BLOWOUT CITY!!! Full analysis will follow.

[Cashmoneyasians]

Best of Luck Rocco!!!

[Kaptain]

gl with the Broncos----Sunday----looks good to me

[Tornado3311]

Good luck Rocco, I value your opinion on the NFL a lot and I love the broncos myself.

So many things look great in this game, Denver off back to back losses coming off a bye. Shanahan and Denver great off the bye and need a win to get the ship right. Miami off a big division win and with two "gimmes" on deck with home games against seattle and oakland. Miami making a cross country trip playing in high altitude.

[roccodean]

exactly tornado!

[Dat Boi E]

good luck with Den Den, Rocco D! i was lean'n that way 2!

[roccodean]

1* Cinci +7.5 over Jax
Jacksonville is overrated and this was evident last week when they lost to the Browns, so I don't see how they can be favored by more the a TD on the road. Cinci's offense is bad, but ther D is respectable. This line is inflated because they know that the public would load up on Jax if they were favored by less than a TD. Jacksonville's numbers are less than stellar; they gain 4.1 YPR (18th) and 6.9 YPPA (18th). Defensively, they are terrible allowing 4.4 YPR (24th) and 7.6 YPPA (23rd). Cinci's run D is average allowing 4.3 YPR (18th), but their pss D is strong allowing only 6.8 YPPA (11th). Their offense gains 3.4 YPR (31st) and Fitzgerald isn't the next Joe Montana but I think Cinci keeps this close. Cinci's strength of schedule is first in the league. In the NFL teams are never as bad as they seem and the Bengals are coming off two blowout losses. Also, winless home favorites are 40-19 ATS if favored by more than 7. There are 4 other trends on the Bengals. My super system has the Jags as 7.5 point favs.

[roccodean]

5* Den -3 over Miami
I want you to take that 5* cheddar you made on Arizona week 5 and double it on the Broncos. I don't have a "Game of the Year" because even the best bets have a chance to lose because turnovers are 75% luck, but this would be my GOY if I did. This is a game when everything has aligned! Denver is coming off a blowout loss at NE and back to back losses and is off a bye, while Miami is coming off a tough division win and now has to travel cross country to Mile High. This is going to be BLOWOUT CITY!!! Denver's defense isn't good, but the stats don't scare me at all off this game because in the NFL teams step up when they have to. Miami only averages 3.8 YPR (24th) so Denver's poor rush D (31st in league) doesn't worry me. In the air Miami averages 8.4 YPPA (3rd) and Denver allows 7.8 YPPA (25th). Denver's offense can be explosive and I think they will blow up this week. They average 4.6 YPR (3rd) and fact a Miami D that allows 3.7 YPR (13th). Cutler has played well this year and has 13 TD's to 7 INT's for a passer rating of 92. He is going to eat up the Dolphins D that allows 8.2 YPPA (30th) and 235 YPG (25th). Miami is improved this year (how can't they be they won one game last year), but a big reason they are 3-4 is their +7 turnover ratio which is first in the league (as mentioned above this is mostly random). On the other hand, Denver is second to last in the league at -9. There an no trends for either team. This is a typical NFL blowout! Barring turnovers and if Cutler healthy, I see an easy win for Denver. I recommend laying that rubber band brick money of 3 units on this play. This will retain its star value at Denver -4.

[Dat Boi E]

i love Denver at home after a much needed bye! good luck!

[roccodean]

thanks all

[Moose21]

Good luck today Rocco!!

[jt4545]

Good luck with the plays r-dean

[Chado1]

BOL today rocco...am also on the Broncos!!!

[Dat Boi E]

good luck today, Rocco! i'm on'em!

[10DimeBry]

GL today rocco