Announcement

**Udog** · 10-30-2008, 01:24 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 9

Sunday, November 2nd

Houston at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Houston: 1-10 ATS Away off home game
Minnesota: 13-4 Over off ATS loss

Jacksonville at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 9-0 Over 2nd half of season
Cincinnati: 0-6 ATS vs. conference

Tampa Bay at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 84-52 Under as favorite
Kansas City: 6-0 ATS after allowing 25+ points BB games

Baltimore at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 2-9 ATS in road games
Cleveland: 8-1 ATS as favorite

NY Jets at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
NY Jets: 6-0 Under off SU win
Buffalo: 22-9 ATS at home in November

Arizona at St. Louis, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 16-4 Over off ATS win
St. Louis: 4-12 ATS off SU loss

Detroit at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 9-20 ATS vs. conference
Chicago: 15-3 Over as home favorite

Green Bay at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 8-0 ATS off non-conference game
Tennessee: 30-15 Over vs. NFC

Miami at Denver, 4:05 ET
Miami: 29-11 ATS vs. AFC West
Denver: 0-12 ATS if total is between 42.5 and 49

Atlanta at Oakland, 4:15 ET
Atlanta: 24-6 ATS Away after allowing 400+ total yards
Oakland: 1-8 ATS in non-conference games

Dallas at NY Giants, 4:15 ET
Dallas: 5-15 ATS Away after allowing 9 points or less
NY Giants: 14-5 ATS vs. conference

Philadelphia at Seattle, 4:15 ET
Philadelphia: 7-0 ATS Away after 1st month of season
Seattle: 1-11 ATS off division win by 21+ points

New England at Indianapolis, 8:15 ET NBC
New England: 10-3 ATS at Indianapolis
Indianapolis: 8-0 ATS off BB ATS losses

Monday, November 3rd

Pittsburgh at Washington, 8:30 ET ESPN
Pittsburgh: 30-9 Under Away off SU loss
Washington: 2-6 ATS in non-conference games

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 10-30-2008, 01:25 PM

NFL
Write-Up

Week 9 NFL games

Sunday, November 2

Texans (3-4) @ Vikings (3-4)- Houston won last three games, all at home, scoring 30.7 pg- they've scored eight TDs on last 16 drives, converting 16 of last 24 on 3rd down. Schaub is 50-59/529 passing in last two games. Texans are 0-3 on road, allowing 33 pg, unsure how much of that was due to hurricane-related distractions- this is their first road game in five weeks. Minnesota is 2-1 at home, allowing 12.7 pg (they led Colts 15-0 in the loss); they've turned ball over eight times in last two games (-6), allowed four special teams TDs in last three.

Jaguars (3-4) @ Bengals (0-7)- Jaguars won nine of last ten series games, winning last four by average score of 24-15; they've won 10 of 12 vs. Bengals when they score 14+ points. Bad teams don't have a home field edge; Bengals are 0-3 at home, scoring 9.7 ppg (three TDs on 34 drives, with 19 3/outs, 8 turnovers). Cincinnati allowed 12 TDs on 28 drives in last three games, losing the field position battle in those games by 26-14-8 yards. Jax is 2-1 on the road, allowing 18.3 pg; their '08 wins are by 2-3-7 points. AFC South road teams are 5-2 vs. spread in non-division games.

Bucs (5-3) @ Chiefs (1-6)- First visit to Arrowhead in 22 years for Bucs, whose four road games this year have all been decided by four or less points (1-3, only win 27-24 in overtime at Chicago). Thigpen showed life at QB for Chiefs last week (25-36/250 yards passing) but defense couldn't keep Favre out of end zone in last 2:00, with game on line. Four of KC's six losses are by 15+ points- they're 1-2 at home, losing 23-8 to Raiders, 34-10 to Titans, but upsetting Denver 33-19. NFC South teams are 14-6 vs. spread out of division, 6-4 on road, 6-2 as favorite. AFC West teams are 6-13 vs. spread out of division.

Jets (4-3) @ Bills (5-2)- Gang Green lost four of last five visits to Buffalo; they scored total of 17 points in pair of losses to Bills LY. Jets lost last two road games, at San Diego, Oakland- they ran ball for 377 yards in last two games, losing to Raiders, barely beating Chiefs- now they move way up in class, facing Buffalo squad that is 3-0 at home, with wins by 24-1-9 points. Bills turned ball over four times in both their losses, a total of five times in their five wins. Jets forced one turnover in last three games, none in last two. Four of Jets last five games went over the total.

Ravens (4-3) @ Browns (3-4)- Ravens, who used to be Browns before moving to Maryland, lost three of last four visits to Lake Erie. Season series was split three of last four years-Ravens won first meeting 28-10 (-2) in Week 3, outrushing Browns 151-73, holding Anderson to 14-37/96 passing. Cleveland won three of last four games after 0-3 start, allowing just 14.3 pg (seven TDs on 40 drives)- they scored 20-35-23 in their wins, 11 or less points in its losses. Ravens are on road for third time in last four weeks- they're 1-2 on road this season, losing in OT at Heinz, 31-3 at Indy, and winning 27-13 at Miami.

Cardinals (4-3) @ Rams (2-5)- Rams are putting Coach Vermeil in Ring of Honor today, on day Kurt Warner returns to face former mates, with division contention on line for improving (2-1 under Haslett) Rams. Arizona crushed Rams 48-19 in last game of '07 season, have won five of last seven in series, winning last three visits here, but have lost seven in row to Rams when they score less than 31 points. Rams outgained Patriots 358-348 without Jackson in lineup last week; they've forced nine turnovers in last three games (+7). Arizona lost its last three road games, allowing 24-56-27 points. Key variable here is obviously Jackson's quad.

Lions (0-7) @ Bears (4-3)-Chicago (-3) won 34-7 at Ford Field four weeks ago, with Orton 24-34/328 passing, and Bears outgaining Lions 425-185 for game, holding Detroit to 3.0 yards/pass attempt. Lions covered their last two road games, are 0-4 SU on road, losing by 13-18-2-7 points- none of their last three losses are by more than eight points. Bears allowed 29.3 pg in three home games (2-1), have been held under 100 yards rushing in last four games (76.8 ypg). Orlovsky averaged 9.2/6.0 ypa last two games, so he is showing some improvement. Under is 3-1-1 in Detroit's last five games.

Packers (4-3) @ Titans (7-0)-Tennessee ripe for upset after home division win over rival Colts Monday night, their first MNF home game in four years; they're 4-0 at home, winning by 7-19-13-10 points (3-0 as home favorite). Packers are off bye- they're 2-1 on road, scoring 32 pg, losing 30-21 in Tampa, winning at Detroit, Seattle; over is 2-0-1 in those three games. Titans turned ball over only eight times (+8) in seven games. AFC South home favorites are 3-6 in non-divisional games; NFC North road dogs are 5-3. This is Packers' first visit to Music City since 2001.

Cowboys (5-3) @ Giants (6-1)- Big Blue KO'd Cowboys from playoffs LY, their first series win in last four tries. Pokes won last two visits here, 23-20/31-20-six of their last seven visits to Swamp had total of 43+. Dallas has much-needed bye on deck to heal wounds; they averaged at least 6.4 ypa in all six Romo starts, but in Johnson's two starts, they've thrown ball for 5.9/2.8 ypa, scoring just 27 points (three TDs on 22 drives)- they are 2-3 in last five games, giving up 26+ points in all three losses. Giants are 4-0 at home, winning by 9-3-38-12 points. Red flag: Giants have two TDs in last ten red zone drives.

Dolphins (3-4) @ Broncos (4-3)- In their last four games, Denver allowed 213-139-155-257 rushing yards, so expect Miami to try and pound ball. Fish are 1-2 on road, winning 38-13 in Foxboro, losing 31-10 in Arizona, 29-28 in Houston. Broncos had bye following 41-7 tank job loss at Foxboro on Monday night in Week 7, their third loss in four games after 3-0 start. Broncos allowed 24+ points in five of last six games. Miami won seven of last nine series games; they're 3-0 vs. spread when they score 24+ points. Five of seven Bronco games went over the total.

Falcons (4-3) @ Raiders (2-5)- Atlanta scored 9-9-14 points in its losses, average of 30.3 in its wins; Raiders are 0-5 if they allow more than 13 points- they gave up 27.3 pg in their three home games, losing 41-14 to Denver, 28-18 to Chargers (beat Jets 16-13 ot). Oakland is 7-4 in series, winning all three here (Falcons were 1-1 vs. Raiders in LA); last four series totals were all 45+. NFC South teams are 14-6 out of their division, 6-4 on road, 6-2 when favored. AFC West teams are 4-7 vs. spread as underdog in non-divisional games. Under is 3-1 in last four Atlanta games, 3-0 in last three Raider tilts.

Eagles (4-3) @ Seahawks (2-5)-Hard to imagine Seneca Wallace doing damage vs. Jim Johnson's defense, which held five of seven foes under 80 yards rushing, and four of last five foes under 6.0 ypa. Health of Westbrook always key for Philly squad that had 192 rushing yards vs. Atlanta, after averaging 81.4 in previous five games. Eagles are 1-2 on road, with average total in the three games, 62.7. NFC West underdogs are 5-11 vs spread in non-division games, 2-4 at home. Underdog is 7-3 vs spread in games involving an NFC East team playing non-division foe on the road. Visitor won last five series games.

Patriots (5-2) @ Colts (3-4)- These rivals are shells of themselves after meeting in three of last five playoff tournaments. Indy in desperate straits after Monday night loss to Titans; they're 1-4 this year if they score less than 31 points. Pats won field position battle in six of seven games this year (were -5 in loss at San Diego)- they gave up 38-30 points in their two losses, but held four of five victims to 16 or less points-- this is their third night game in last four weeks. Indy has zero takeaways (-4) in last two games; they are 2-0 when they win turnover battle, 1-4 when they do not.

Monday, November 3

Steelers (5-2) @ Redskins (6-2)-- Skins are 3-1 at home; they scored 7-17 points in their two losses, scored 23+ in five of six wins. Steelers are 3-1 on road (lost 15-6 at Philly), are 0-2 vs. NFC (also lost 21-14 to Giants). AFC North road dogs are 6-4 against spread this season. NFC East home favorites are 2-2. Pitt has only two takeaways in last four games. Skins have run ball for average of 165.4 ypg over last seven games. Steelers held last three foes under 90 rushing yards. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Redskin games, 1-3 in last four Steeler contests. Pitt is in nation's capital for first time in 20 years.

**Udog** · 10-30-2008, 01:29 PM

NFL

Week 9

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Trend Sheet
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Sunday, November 2

1:00 PM ARIZONA vs. ST. LOUIS
Arizona is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
St. Louis is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games at home

1:00 PM BALTIMORE vs. CLEVELAND
Baltimore is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Baltimore is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Baltimore

1:00 PM DETROIT vs. CHICAGO
Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Chicago is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games

1:00 PM GREEN BAY vs. TENNESSEE
Green Bay is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games
Green Bay is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM HOUSTON vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Houston's last 9 games
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games
Minnesota is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games

1:00 PM JACKSONVILLE vs. CINCINNATI
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM NY JETS vs. BUFFALO
NY Jets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games when playing Buffalo
NY Jets are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Buffalo is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games at home

1:00 PM TAMPA BAY vs. KANSAS CITY
Tampa Bay is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Tampa Bay is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Kansas City is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay

2, 4:05 PM MIAMI vs. DENVER
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Denver is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

4:15 PM ATLANTA vs. OAKLAND
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Oakland is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games

4:15 PM DALLAS vs. NY GIANTS
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Dallas is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
NY Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home
NY Giants are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home

4:15 PM PHILADELPHIA vs. SEATTLE
Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Philadelphia is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Seattle is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
Seattle is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia

8:15 PM NEW ENGLAND vs. INDIANAPOLIS
New England is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games on the road
New England is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Indianapolis is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games at home

Monday, November 3

8:30 PM PITTSBURGH vs. WASHINGTON
Pittsburgh is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Washington is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games

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**Udog** · 10-30-2008, 01:35 PM

NFL

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Top NFL Week 9 Head-to-head Series Trends
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Like any angles or systems that are used to handicap pro football games, the history of two teams in their recent head-to-head matchups should be analyzed fully to uncover value spots. For some of these matchups, past games may mean absolutely nothing to the upcoming game, while for others they may be the decisive factor in determining whether or not to bet the contest.

The intensity of rivalries in pro football doesn’t really come close to that of the college level, where the likes Ohio State-Michigan, or Auburn-Alabama, can make or break those teams’ entire seasons, even if the games mean little in the standings. Does this mean the recent history between the teams in the NFL can be safely ignored? I would obviously say not, since in many cases, coaches will prepare their teams for a specific opponent in consistent fashion. This naturally leads to distinctive patterns forming. It also implies that most NFL head-to-head series trends that form are more due to strategy and less to motivation.

Some of the head-to-head trends can be explained rather easily, while other patterns seem to be just random luck. For instance, you’ll see later why it’s pretty easy to come up with a reason why the underdog in the Indianapolis-New England fares well, while at the same time, searching for a reason as to why Denver hasn’t matched up well with Miami is difficult. In any case, for the seven games below, I’ll do my best to offer up a reason for the success of the trend revealed, plus I’ll provide some insight as to whether or not it might be an angle to follow this Sunday.

If these types of trends interest you, ******* offers up the Top 5 college & pro football head-to-head trends in the Platinum Sheet each and every week. The P.S. is available on a store shelf near you or in the STORE on *******.com.

NY JETS at BUFFALO
* The UNDERDOG is 19-9 ATS (67.9%) in NY JETS-BUFFALO series since '93

Analysis: Meeting two times per season, divisional rivalries are a perfect chance for underdogs to thrive, since they are well familiar with their favored opponents’ tendencies. In the case of the Jets and Bills, the underdog has had success much due to the fact that these teams haven’t been among the higher scoring clubs in the last decade. As such, the favorite in these games has not been able to put the other away. With the Bills being favored here and the Jets having the higher-powered offense, this is a trend that figures to continue in 2008.

NEW ENGLAND at INDIANAPOLIS
* NEW ENGLAND is 18-8 SU & 17-8 ATS vs. INDIANAPOLIS since 1993.
AND
* The UNDERDOG is 9-19 SU but 18-9 ATS in NEW ENGLAND-INDIANAPOLIS series since '92.

Analysis: With the success that the New England and Indianapolis franchises’ have enjoyed over the last decade, it’s not a surprise to see that the underdog has thrived in the head-to-head series. That is often how it goes when the teams’ play in the biggest games of the year. Big games rarely disappoint in the NFL. Plus, both teams have been fluid offenses that keep fighting back. It is, however, a surprising, albeit well known, fact that HC Bill Belichick has gotten the best of Colts’ QB Peyton Manning over the years. This year’s meeting will take on a different feel than any in recent memory as both teams are fighting for their playoff lives. This should mean a typically intense dual, but without the usual precise execution. Keep in mind that the last three meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less.

JACKSONVILLE at CINCINNATI
* The FAVORITE is 13-2 SU & 10-3 ATS in JACKSONVILLE-CINCINNATI series since '95.
AND
* JACKSONVILLE is 9-1 SU & 7-2 ATS vs. CINCINNATI since 1998.

Analysis: The Jacksonville-Cincinnati rivalry is not one that you’ll find at the top of most experts’ lists of most anticipated annual matchups. After all, they haven’t been divisional rivals since ’01, and have only met twice in the last six seasons. However, judging from the trend, it’s easy to see that Cincinnati has had trouble adjusting to the Jaguars’ schemes under, first Tom Coughlin, and now Jack Del Rio. Jacksonville has won nine of the last 10 meetings straight up, and with the way things are going this year, figures to make it 10 out of 11. Unless you’re counting on the Bengals to put together their best effort of the year heading into next week’s bye, look for the Jags and favorite to notch another “W”.

DALLAS at NY+GIANTS
* The HOME TEAM is 20-13 SU & 19-12 ATS in DALLAS-NY GIANTS series since '92.
AND
* The UNDER is 17-11 in the NY GIANTS-DALLAS series since 1994.

Analysis: The Dallas-NY Giants HOME TEAM & UNDER trends are perfect examples of NFL trends normalizing over the course of many years. In any divisional series, you should expect physicality and familiarity to play important roles. In terms of the teams being physical, this leads to UNDER’s. One of both of the offenses might be prolific at times, but the mere value placed on valuing possessions in order to win critical division games typically outweighs that. Additionally, because the teams are so familiar with one another, other factors have to weigh in more heavily. In the case of the Giants & Cowboys, the home field advantage most often is the separation. As far as this week’s game, with Dallas’ QB Tony Romo expected to be out, the defending champions have to be smelling blood in the water. I wouldn’t be counting on this downtrodden Dallas team to react positively here.

PHILADELPHIA at SEATTLE
* The ROAD TEAM is 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 games of PHILADELPHIA-SEATTLE series.

Analysis: Prior to the last half of a season, both Philadelphia and Seattle were well-respected among NFC circles, teams capable of winning here, there, or anywhere. While Philadelphia still commands that respect, the Seahawks do not. In fact, they might be the worst road bet in the NFL nowadays. Fortunately for our trend, the Eagles are the road team in this week’s matchup, and for the sixth time in the L7 meetings, the visitor will be the one playing as the chalk. Protégé Andy Reid’s teams are 24-10 SU & 19-14-1 ATS as road favorites, Mentor Mike Holmgren’s Seattle teams are just 5-11 SU & 7-9 as home dogs. Why would it change now?

ARIZONA at ST LOUIS
* The UNDERDOG is 8-2 ATS in ARIZONA-ST LOUIS series since '03.

Analysis: The order of priority for the Arizona and St. Louis franchises in recent years: Offense first, defense much later. That thought, with nothing else considered, leads to underdog success when the teams get together, since poor defensive teams make lousy favorites. How else can you explain that the dog in the L10 games between these teams has averaged a healthy 23.6 PPG. I’ll tell you one thing, if all of you NFL underdog wagers produced that much for you, you’d be a rich man. In this year’s game, with favored Arizona struggling on defense, playing its second straight road game, and the Rams coming on offensively, St. Louis is probably the only way to go in this game.

MIAMI at DENVER
* MIAMI is 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS vs. DENVER since 1998.

Analysis: All seven of the recent matchups making up this trend between Denver and Miami occurred between 1998 & 2005. Both franchises were in transition off of great quarterbacking eras and achieving only moderate success for most of that period. It does little to explain why Miami has had its way with the Broncos. If you have a reason as to why, I’d love to hear it. In any case, for the 2008 matchup, Denver has the better team but can’t cover a spread for its life, regardless of the number. It that continues, chalk another “W” up for Miami, at least on the betting ticket.

**Udog** · 10-30-2008, 09:00 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Baltimore at Cleveland
The Browns return home after upending Jacksonville and will look to build on their 11-2 ATS mark over the last three seasons against a team with a winning record as they take on a Baltimore team that is just 6-13 ATS on the road. Cleveland is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Browns favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-1 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 2

Game 399-400: Houston at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 130.774; Minnesota 133.240
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+4 1/2); Under

Game 401-402: Jacksonville at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 132.343; Cincinnati 121.327
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 11; 36
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 8; 40
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-8); Under

Game 403-404: Tampa Bay at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 136.889; Kansas City 124.550
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 12; 42
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 9; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-9); Over

Game 405-406: Baltimore at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 130.742; Cleveland 134.446
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 3 1/2; 34
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 36
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-1 1/2); Under

Game 407-408: NY Jets at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 130.057; Buffalo 132.562
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 2 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 5 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+5 1/2); Under

Game 409-410: Arizona at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 131.319; St. Louis 125.027
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 6; 52
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3; 48
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-3); Over

Game 411-412: Detroit at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 119.744; Chicago 138.989
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 19; 38
Vegas Line: Chicago by 13; 43
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-13); Under

Game 413-414: Green Bay at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 133.540; Tennessee 142.951
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 9 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 5 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-5 1/2); Under

Game 415-416: Miami at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 128.701; Denver 128.434
Dunkel Line: Even; 54
Vegas Line: Denver by 3; 49
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+3); Over

Game 417-418: Atlanta at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 126.459; Oakland 126.636
Dunkel Line: Even; 46
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3; 41
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+3); Over

Game 419-420: Dallas at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 134.505; NY Giants 141.064
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 6 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 9; 41
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+9); Under

Game 421-422: Philadelphia at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 134.638; Seattle 130.760
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 4; 40
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 7; 43
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+7); Under

Game 423-424: New England at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: New England 135.093; Indianapolis 138.481
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 3 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 5 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: New England (+5 1/2); Over

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 3

Game 427-428: Pittsburgh at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 136.823; Washington 134.854
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2; 33
Vegas Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+1 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 11-01-2008, 09:35 AM

NFL

Week 9

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Tips and Trends
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Sunday, November 2

Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans [FOX | 1 PM ET]

Packers: Al Harris took another step toward making what would be an unbelievably quick return to the Packers lineup after suffering a lacerated spleen on September 21st.The Pro Bowl cornerback was on the practice field this week but Packers head coach Mike McCarthy said the team’s medical staff is taking a cautious approach with Harris and won’t rush him back into a game. Even when Harris comes back, Green Bay needs to fix a rush defense that’s giving up 140 yards per game.

Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
Packers are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 road games.

Key Injuries - LB A.J. Hawk (groin) is probable.
CB Al Harris (spleen) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17

Titans (-5.5, O/U 41.5): The Titans remained the NFL’s only undefeated team after dismantling the Colts on Monday night. Tennessee is now 7-0 and is perfect ATS the spread this season. Quarterback Kerry Collins shouldered more of the load last week with the Colts crowding the line to take away the run. Collins responded hitting 24 of 37 passes for 193 yards. He was 6 of 8 for 55 yards on Tennessee’s key fourth-quarter touchdown march that made the score 24-14. However, the ground game is still Tennessee’s bread and butter. They average an NFL-best 145 yards per game rushing.

Titans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
Titans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win.

Key Injuries - DE Kyle Vanden Bosch (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 23

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants [FOX | 4:15 PM ET]

Cowboys: The Cowboys snapped a two-game losing streak by beating the Bucs last week, even though they were held to just 172 yards of offense. And now there is talk of replacing ineffective quarterback Brad Johnson with journeyman Brooks Bollinger. Johnson will likely start on Sunday but he’ll be on a very short leash. Whoever the quarterback is this week, they could be short handed. Pro Bowl tight end Jason Witten injured his ribs against the Bucs and his status for Sunday is up in the air.

Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Cowboys are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC.

Key Injuries - QB Tony Romo (knee) is OUT.
TE Jason Witten (ribs) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 10 (UNDER - Total Play of the Day)

Giants (-8.5, O/U 41): The Giants are coming off an impressive win over the Steelers last week in Pittsburgh. New York showed once again that they have one of the best offensive and defensive lines in the NFL. The Giants sacked Ben Roethlisberger five times, while Eli Manning wasn’t dropped once. The defense also doubled its season output in interceptions, picking off four Roethlisberger passes. The Giants now have eight interceptions and 26 sacks for the season.

Giants are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 20

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts [NBC | 8:15 PM ET]

Patriots: Even without Tom Brady, the Patriots still sit atop the AFC East heading into this game with the Colts. The good news for the Pats is quarterback Matt Cassel is coming off the best game of his young career and seems to be getting more comfortable in New England’s offense. Against the Rams, Cassel finished 21 of 33 for 267 yards and a touchdown. Of his 12 incompletions, four were dropped passes and one was thrown away on a scramble toward the sideline. Running back Sammy Morris (knee) could be out for at least three weeks, though the team has not disclosed any information on his long-term status.

Patriots are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC.
Patriots are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

Key Injuries - RB Sammy Morris (knee) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17

Colts (-6, O/U 44): After losing to the Titans on Monday night, the Colts have gone from underachieving to desperation. Sitting at 3-5, Indy needs a win tonight over the Patriots to keep its fading playoff hopes alive. The Colts offense has been really struggling without Joseph Addai, averaging just 73 yards per game. That’s put more pressure on Peyton Manning and because of that, he’s been turning the ball over like he did earlier in his career. On defense, the Colts can’t stop anyone from running the ball on them. They are last in the NFL in rush defense, allowing 144 yards per game. They are hoping that will change if reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year Bob Sanders can return.

Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Colts are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Key Injuries - RB Joseph Addai (hamstring) is questionable.
WR Reggie Wayne (knee) is questionable.
S Bob Sanders (ankle) is questionable

PROJECTED SCORE: 28 (Side Play of the Day)

Monday, November 3

Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Redskins [ESPN | 8:30 PM ET]

Steelers: Receiver Santonio Holmes will return this week and go back to his starting job at split end. There will be no more disciplinary action taken against Holmes, who was charged last week with possession of a small amount of marijuana. QB Ben Roethlisberger returned to the injury list this week with a sore shoulder after he was sacked five times and hit another 10 times by the Giants last Sunday. The Steelers offensive line needs to do a better job of protecting Big Ben against tough defenses like the one they will face tonight. The Steelers could be getting one of their top playmakers for this game back in RB Willie Parker, who is almost fully recovered from a sprained MCL.

Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.

Key Injuries - RB Willie Parker (knee) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17

Redskins (-1.5, O/U 36.5): There is a good news, bad news situation surrounding the Redskins injury front. The bad news is there are a lot of guys banged up but the good news is most of them are expected to play Monday night. Head coach Jim Zorn expects five-time Pro Bowl offensive tackle Chris Samuels (knee) and rookie safety Chris Horton (ankle) to return against the Steelers. Zorn also believes that defensive tackle Cornelius Griffin, who missed the Detroit game with a sprained shoulder, will play on Monday, as will NFL rushing leader Clinton Portis (hip, ankle) and ace receiver Santana Moss (hamstring). The Skins will need all the offense they can get against a Steelers defense that only allows 15.7 points and 236 yards per game.

Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win.
The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Redskins last 8 Monday games.

Key Injuries - RB Clinton Portis (ankle) is probable.
WR Santana Moss (hamstring) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20

Announcement

NFL Week 9 Trends and Indexes 11/02 and 11/03

NFL Week 9 Trends and Indexes 11/02 and 11/03

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