Saturday Trends and Indexes 10/25 (World Series, NHL, CFL, Misc.)

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Saturday, October 25

Good Luck on day #299 of 2008!


For College Football and the NFL, look for separate threads:

• “NCAA Week9 Trends and Indexes 10/21 through 10/26”
• “NFL Week 8 Trends and Indexes 10/26 and 10/27”

For now, the balance of the sports menu in this thread will consist of Major League Baseball, the Canadian Football League, and the NHL until their seasons are played out. Also, general sports news and notes will still be posted here.

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.
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[pm530]

Daily Sports Roundup

Saturday, October 25

The Top 10 teams in the nation will all hit the gridiron in college football action on Saturday. Here's a look at that slate and everything else in your Daily Sports Roundup.

The Gridiron Spotlight

The Texas Longhorns sit atop both the AP Top 25 and the BCS rankings, and they'll be looking to stay at No. 1 with a victory over No. 7 Oklahoma State on Saturday. The Longhorns are 7-0 both straight-up and against-the-spread this season, and they're listed as 12.5-point home favorites. The Cowboys are also perfect at 7-0 and 6-0 ATS.

Looking to move past Texas in the rankings this weekend will be both No. 2 Alabama and No. 3 Penn State. The Crimson Tide are 6.5-point road favorites against Tennessee, while the Nittany Lions are favored by 2.5 points on the road against No. 10 Ohio State. In other Top 10 action it's No. 4 Oklahoma (-18.5) at Kansas State, Kentucky at No. 5 Florida (-24.5), No. 6 Southern Cal (-16.5) at Arizona, No. 8 Texas Tech at No. 19 Kansas (-1.5), and finally No. 9 Georgia at No. 11 Louisiana State (-2).

Other Notable Events

The Rays tied up the World Series at 1-1 with a win over the Phillies at home on Thursday, and they'll be looking to jump into the series lead with a road victory in Game 3 on Saturday night (8:35pm ET). Tampa Bay will send ALCS MVP Matt Garza to the mound in Philly in Game 3. Garza held the Red Sox to just two earned runs on eight hits over 13 innings of work last round, and he'll be looking to dazzle Philly's batters as well.

Countering for the Phillies will be veteran lefthander Jamie Moyer, who has finally made it to the big stage at the age of 45. Moyer, though, has struggled so far in the playoffs, posting an 0-2 record and a 13.50 ERA against the Dodgers and Brewers. In his start against Los Angeles last round Moyer allowed six earned runs over just 1 1-3 innings.

The Rest of the Schedule

All 30 of the National Hockey League's teams are in action on Saturday, including the Devils and Flyers in Philadelphia in the back end of a home-and-home set. There's another Atlantic Division clash on the slate as well, as the Rangers will be looking to get on another roll when they play at Madison Square Garden against the rival Penguins.

The rest of the NHL's Saturday schedule: Atlanta at Boston, Ottawa at Toronto, Anaheim at Montreal, Carolina at the Islanders, San Jose at Tampa Bay, Los Angeles at Nashville, Columbus at Minnesota, Washington at Dallas, Florida at St. Louis, Detroit at Chicago, Buffalo at Colorado, Edmonton at Vancouver, and Calgary at Phoenix.

As well, there are two Canadian Football League games on the Saturday schedule - Edmonton at Saskatchewan, and Toronto at British Columbia. The Roughriders (10-6, 9-7 ATS) are pegged as 2.5-point home favorites against the Eskimos (9-7, 8-6-2 ATS). The Lions (10-6, 7-8-1 ATS) are favored by 14 over the Argonauts (4-12, 5-10-1 ATS).

A Peek at the Future

A rare Sunday outing for college football sees No. 22 Tulsa listed as 23.5-point favorites against Central Florida . . . first pitch for Game 4 of the World Series is set for 8:30pm ET tomorrow, and as a result there's no Sunday Night Football on the schedule . . . the Chargers and the Saints will play a game over in London, England on Sunday afternoon; San Diego is listed as a 3-point favorite, with the total pegged at 46 points.

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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Long Sheet

CFL
Long Sheet


Week 18

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Saturday, October 25
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EDMONTON (9 - 7) at SASKATCHEWAN (10 - 6) - 10/25/2008, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 74-46 ATS (+23.4 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 5-4 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 5-4 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TORONTO (4 - 12) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (10 - 6) - 10/25/2008, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
TORONTO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) off a division game this season.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 4-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record after 9 or more games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 3-2 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 5-0 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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Sunday, October 26
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WINNIPEG (6 - 10) at MONTREAL (11 - 5) - 10/26/2008, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 7-3 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 5-5 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Write up

CFL
Write-up


Week 18 CFL games

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Saturday, October 25

Edmonton (9-7) @ Saskatchewan (10-6)-- Roughriders are struggling, in 2-4 slide (Ws 37-34 vs Calgary, 30-29 vs TiCats). Home team won first two series games this year, with Riders winning 34-13 in season opener in Regina (-4), then losing 27-10 in Alberta in Week 9 (+6). Eskimos are 2-5 vs spread in last seven games- they're 7-0 this season if they allow less than 30 points, a figure Roughriders scored in only 2 of last 12 tilts.

Toronto (4-12) @ BCLions (10-6)-- Argos lost seven in row, nine of last ten games, one of which was 33-10 home beating by Lions in Toronto in Week 15 (+3). Only one of those nine losses was by less than 16 points (25-16 at Winnipeg); they're 1-5 vs spread in last six tries as a road dog. Lions won six of last seven games, but are ust 3-5 vs spread as a home favorite, with home wins by 9-2-6-5-30 points. Under is 8-1 in last nine Lion games.


Sunday, October 26

Winnipeg (6-10) @ Montreal (11-5)-- Bombers lost twice to Montreal earlier in year, 38-24 in Quebec back in Week 2 (-1), then 39-11 at home in Week 7 (+2). Alouettes outrushed Winnnipeg 321-90 in those games. Montreal won nine of last eleven games, covered last four home games-- they scored 30+ points in every game but one this season, averaging 40.8 ppg in their last five games. Five of last six Bomber games stayed under.

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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Additional Trends

CFL

Trends Sheet


Week 18

Saturday, October 25

6:30 PM EDMONTON vs. SASKATCHEWAN
Edmonton is 3-4-2 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Edmonton is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Saskatchewan is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Edmonton
Saskatchewan is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Edmonton


10:00 PM TORONTO vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Toronto is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
British Columbia is 7-13-1 ATS in its last 21 games
British Columbia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games



Sunday, October 26

1:00 PM WINNIPEG vs. MONTREAL
Winnipeg is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Winnipeg is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Montreal is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
Montreal is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Winnipeg

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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Previews and Picks

CFL
Previews and Picks


CFL games – Week 18

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Previews and Picks
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Saturday, October 25

Edmonton Eskimos (9-7) vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders (10-6) (Saskatchewan -3)

Edmonton was on the verge of beating the Lions last week before collapsing and giving up 20 points in the fourth quarter to finally lose 43-28. But for Danny Maciocia's team, this could provide good news and a possible berth to the Eastern Division semifinals against Winnipeg. The Eastern path would probably be a safer one to the Grey Cup than facing a semifinal on the Western side against the likes of Calgary, B.C., or Saskatchewan.

A loss to the Roughriders in Week 18 will mean Edmonton will play the Bombers in the playoffs. But Saskatchewan hasn’t been playing great football over the past few weeks, which was clear last week in the squeaker against struggling Hamilton.

Will the Riders want to finish their season with some momentum, or would they prefer to play in Winnipeg a week prior to the Grey Cup?

We didn’t learn much from the first two showdowns between these teams earlier this season: The Riders won 34-13 in June when they were red-hot but got crushed 27-10 in late August when they were struggling. Unless the Eskimos desperately want to play in the Eastern semifinals, they should win this one.

Pick: Edmonton (+3)



Toronto Argonauts (4-12) vs. B.C. Lions (10-6) (B.C. -14)

The Lions are still in the hunt for the top spot in the Western Division after a comeback win against Edmonton at Commonwealth Stadium. Buck Pierce had one of his fine games of the year with 25 of 40 passes for 378 yards and three touchdowns.

Running back Charles Roberts added a pair of scores with 168 total rushing yards. The Argonauts have shown some signs of improvement since Don Matthews took over and last year's MVP Kerry Joseph threw for 400 yards last week at Rogers Centre against the Alouettes, but they came short and Montreal won 43-34.

These teams met only once this season and it was a close one, with the Lions winning earlier this month 24-20 in Toronto. But the stakes are too high for them to take the Argos lightly a second time in a row. And this time, they should cover, even with a 14- point spread.

Pick: B.C. (-14)



Sunday, October 26

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (6-10) vs. Montreal Alouettes (11-5) (Montreal -9.5)

This is a meaningless game for both teams as far as the playoff picture is concerned. Winnipeg will host the Eastern Division semifinal and Montreal will host the Eastern Division final the next week.

That said, there is a strong possibility the Bombers will be the Alouettes’ opponents Nov. 15, with the winner staying in Montreal for the Grey Cup. So, this may quite be a game where both teams will want to establish some sort of psychological advantage.

Montreal won both its games against Winnipeg so far this season, a 38-24 victory at home in July and a 39-11 triumph in Winnipeg in August.

Avon Cobourne will be absent for the Alouettes but Mike Imoh has been pretty efficient replacing him. Safety Etienne Boulay, who missed the last three games with an ankle injury, will be back in action.

The Montreal defensive unit will want to redeem itself after giving up 34 points last week to the weakest offense in the CFL.

Pick: Montreal (-9.5)

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[pm530]

MLB - World Series

[pm530]

Major League Baseball – Long Sheet

MLB
Long Sheet

2008 World Series

Saturday, October 25

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TAMPA BAY (105 - 70) at PHILADELPHIA (100 - 73) - 8:20 PM
MATT GARZA (R) vs. JAMIE MOYER (L)
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 100-73 (+8.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 99-72 (+8.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 73-49 (+11.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 52-40 (+5.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 31-19 (+9.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
MOYER is 233-160 (+41.6 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997. (Team's Record)
TAMPA BAY is 105-70 (+31.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 39-27 (+11.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
TAMPA BAY is 68-48 (+18.7 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 62-42 (+15.4 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
TAMPA BAY is 59-40 (+19.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 43-41 (-17.1 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 5-12 (-9.2 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game this season.
MOYER is 24-40 (-23.8 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-1 (+0.0 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.0 Units)

MATT GARZA vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
No recent starts.

JAMIE MOYER vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
MOYER is 8-4 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 2.85 and a WHIP of 1.090.
His team's record is 11-4 (+4.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 10-4. (+6.0 units)

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball - Short Sheet

MLB
Short Sheet


Saturday, October 25th

World Series
Best of Seven
Game Three
Series Tied, 1-1
TV: FOX
Tampa Bay at Philadelphia, 8:20 ET
Matt Garza (R) vs. Jamie Moyer (L)

Garza:
12-18 TSR when favored
TB 7-29 Away off 3+ home games

Moyer:
19-9 TSR when the total is 8.5 to 10
Philadelphia 27-18 as an underdog of +150 or less

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball – Trend Sheet

MLB



Saturday, October 25

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Trend Sheet
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8:00 PM TAMPA BAY vs. PHILADELPHIA
Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games at home

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball - Tips & Trends

MLB



Saturday, October 25

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Tips and Trends
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Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies [FOX | 8:20 PM ET]

Rays (-115, O/U 9): After losing his first postseason start against the White Sox, Matt Garza was money in both outings versus Boston, allowing just two runs over 13 innings of work and striking out 14 batters. Garza has been sensational at home but just average on the road this season where he’s 4-6 with a 4.53 ERA. This will be Garza’s first-ever appearance against the Phillies.

Rays are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague road games.
Rays are 1-4 in Garza's last 5 road starts.

Key Injuries - RP Troy Percival (back) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 5

Phillies (NA): Jamie Moyer hasn’t fared well this postseason, losing both starts after allowing eight runs over 5.1 innings. Both of Moyer’s playoff starts have been on the road but he’s actually pitched better away from home this season. He’s just 6-4 at Citizen’s Bank Park with a 4.61 ERA. Moyer has good career numbers against the Rays though. In 15 career starts versus Tampa, he’s 8-4 with a strong 2.85 ERA.

Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 playoff home games.
Phillies are 0-5 in their last 5 interleague home games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 4

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball – Write up

MLB
Write-up


Saturday, October 25

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Moyer threw 32 pitches to 11 batters in his last start, at LA, and six of 11 batters scored; he had been 2-1, 2.25 in his three starts before that. Garza was Tampa's best pitcher in Boston series, throwing seven solid innings in Game 7 Sunday night. Hitters 3-5 in Rays' lineup ( Longoria--Pena-Crawford) are combined 1-23 so far in series- expect to see Rays' lefty hitters go other way and try to reach bleachers in left-center, which are closer to plate than any AL park (Baltimore is close). Supposed to rain all day Saturday, so I might get wet, but will be worth it to see my first World Series game in person.

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball - Dunkel Index

MLB
Dunkel Index

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia

The Rays look to take Game Three on the road behind ALCS MVP Matt Garza (2-1, 3.32 in postseason), while the Phillies counter with a struggling Jamie Moyer (0-2, 13.50). Tampa Bay is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115). Here are all of today's games

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 25

Game 955-956: Tampa Bay at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Garza) 17.548; Philadelphia (Moyer) 16.246
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115); Over

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball – Hot lines

MLB


Saturday, October 25

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Hot lines: Saturday, World Series, Game 3
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Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies (+105, 9)

This series shifts to Philadelphia tied at one game apiece after the Rays recovered from a 3-2 loss in Game 1 to beat the Phillies 4-2 on Thursday night at Tropicana Field. The Phillies reached Tampa Bay starter James Shields for seven hits and two walks over 5 2-3 innings, but failed to score against him. They stranded 11 men on base and went 1-for-15 with runners in scoring position, falling to 1-for-28 for the series in RBI situations.

"I'm concerned about us hitting with guys on base, because it looks like at times we might be trying a little too hard. But we can fix that," Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said.

Regardless of whether they fix that problem, playing at home usually aids the Phillies. They went 48-33 there during the regular season, and have won all four of their postseason games at Citizens Bank Park, which nicely complements their home run-reliant offense.

For that home-field advantage to matter, Philadelphia's top hitters will need to recapture their strokes. Slugger Ryan Howard is 2-for-9 with four strikeouts in the World Series, while Pat Burrell is 0-for-6. Leadoff man Jimmy Rollins has had the worst time of all, going 0-for-10 in the first two games after batting .143 (3-for-21) in the NLCS against Los Angeles.

"The only thing I can see is Jimmy is swinging hard," Manuel said. "That comes from trying too hard."

Without their shortstop on base, the Phillies suffer. They went 42-15 in the regular season when Rollins scored a run, and 50-55 when he didn't.

Few balls were hit hard against Garza (2-1, 3.32 ERA) in the ALCS. The 24-year-old right-hander became the youngest MVP in the history of that series by limiting Boston's vaunted lineup to two runs and eight hits over 14 innings to win both of his starts. He outpitched Jon Lester in Sunday's Game 7, yielding one run, two hits and three walks in seven innings while striking out nine.

The youthful Garza will be opposed by a pitcher old enough to be his father. Jamie Moyer (0-2, 13.50) has waited 45 years - 22 of them spent in the major leagues - to make his World Series debut, but he may need to wait one more day.

The National Weather Service is forecasting a 90 percent chance of rain for Saturday, raising the possibility of the first World Series rainout since Game 4 of the 2006 series between St. Louis and Detroit. Neither manager has revealed plans for his pitching rotation in the event of a postponement.

The Phillies lost only twice in the first two rounds of this postseason, with both those defeats charged to Moyer. The left-hander got hit hard Oct. 12 in Game 3 of the NLCS at Los Angeles, yielding six runs and six hits in 1 1-3 innings of a 7-2 defeat.

Pick: Rays

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball – Pitching Matchup

MLB


Saturday, October 25

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The payoff pitch: Game 3 World Series mound matchup
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Matt Garza (Tampa Bay Rays) vs. Jamie Moyer (Philadelphia Phillies)

Matt Garza RHP (11-9, 3.70 ERA)

Garza was the hero in Game 7 if the ALCS, putting the Red Sox to bed with a seven-inning gem, allowing just one run on two hits. He struck out nine batters and walked three to send Tampa Bay to the World Series.

The win improved Garza's postseason record to 2-1 with a 3.32 ERA in three October starts. He will face a hostile, title-hungry Philadelphia crowd Saturday but has experience dealing with the jeers of Philly fanatics. Garza quieted the Fenway fans with a solid Game 2 performance.

Garza has good zip on his fastball and is mixing his pitches up with breaking balls. The Phillies big hitters had a tough time finding their swing in the first two games of the series.

Jamie Moyer LHP (16-7, 3.71 ERA)

Moyer has had plenty of time to rest his old bones. The left hander hasn't taken the bump since Game 3 of the NLCS October 12. Hopefully that's enough time to erase the memory of that start. Moyer was beat up by the Dodgers, giving up six runs on six hits in just over one inning of work.

The defeat dropped Moyer's playoff record to 0-2 this season and puts his career numbers in October at 3-3 with a 4.11 ERA in seven postseason starts.

Moyer was never known for his velocity. While the tricky veteran can out-think most young batters, which the Rays have in spades, his non-existent fastball might not be enough to overpower Tampa Saturday night.

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