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Playing Football … The Final Report with Adjustments for This Week
Here’s what happened …
Sometimes when lines move, teams and totals qualify or get disqualified as games to wager . This week we are affected by a number of moves, and changes are necessary.
So I think it’s best if I post the card each week on Thursday or Friday so we can avoid a lot of confusion.
Sorry for all these changes, but they’ve benefitted us in the NCAA already with the Thursday games , cancelling The Auburn Play which would have lost last night , and bumping up Air Force to a Top Winning Play. ( totals cancelled out )
This will be the last update … now we are all set ... I Promise.
Saturday NCAA :
I’m reversing ( with good reasons ) the Cincinnati / U Conn game … Make a Top Play on U Connecticut +3 to defeat Cincinnati
I’m also reaffirming that Purdue +2 should be made a Top Play
Michigan +4 was made a Top Play
Sunday NFL :
The Regular Play for Houston / Cincinnati to go Over the Total is now a No Play ... if anything , a leaner to the Under
Seattle +5 over San Francisco Remains a Regular Play and is not going to be upgraded.
Detroit +8 over Washington is added as a Regular
Here is the Entire Final Report for this weekend :
Saturday :
Underdog Game of the Week : Bowling Green + 8 to defeat Northern Illinois
Top Plays:
Kansas -1 over Texas Tech
Hawaii +4 over Nevada
U Connecticut +3 over Cincinnati
Louisiana Tech +3 over Army
Purdue pk over Minnesota
Arkansas +6 over Mississippi
UCLA + 18 over California … I like Rick Neuheisel in this spot.
Middle Tennessee St. +11 over Mississippi St.
Georgia Tech -11 over Virginia
Michigan +4 over Michigan State
The following Just Missed being Top Plays:
Rutgers +10 over Pittsburgh
Vanderbilt -10 over Duke
Navy -12 over SMU
Colorado St. -8 over San Diego St.
Idaho +14 over New Mexico St. … a possible upset
High Line Games worth considering :
TCU -31 over Wyoming
Colorado +22 over Missouri
Kentucky +25 over Florida
Ball St -24 over Eastern Michigan
UNLV +23 over BYU
************************************************
NFL Record :
First , let's deal with the game in London …
It's a horribly bad break for us that San Diego is playing New Orleans over there … for if the game were at The Superdome ( or in San Diego for that matter ) I would ask you to UNLOAD on the Over and also make a lesser but nevertheless a Big Play on The Chargers .
But … there's no telling what that field will be like condition - wise … we know it will probably be foggy and soggy and damp and divot - scarred and slow … but to what extent is a mystery. We also know that the food there is for the birds. Tough to get a fix on players ( and coaching performance ) when there are so many variables … let's face it … mixing NFL Football and Shepherd's Pie is just plain WRONG.
What I'm saying is that there are too many ifs to make man - sized plays on this game and this Europe nonsense has cheated us out of an what I believe would have been an extraordinary opportunity to make a meaningful score.
As for me I'm making a conservative wager on San Diego -3 and a larger on The Over 46 … but not nearly as much as I would have if this game were to be played where it's supposed to be played.
I only ever play games in which I have The Edge and although I'm aware I'm giving up a lot of my advantage by playing this game at all , I'll make somewhat of an exception with this one , based on all that I've found in my work.
That aside , here's the card (and I'm confident with it )
Top Plays:
Totals:
Monday Night Total of the Month … Indianapolis at Tennessee Over 41
Atlanta at Philadelphia Under 46
Seattle at San Francisco Over 40
Arizona at Carolina Under 44
Top Side Plays:
Baltimore -7 over Oakland is what I call a " Systems Dominator Game " … everything points toward The Ravens and against The Raiders … also very strong.
Dallas - 2 over Tampa Bay
Regular Plays :
St Louis / New England Over 42
Seattle +5 over San Francisco ... can't trust Seattle for anything more than a Regular Play.
Detroit +8 over Washington ... Washington is brutal following a home win as a 7+ fave
Opinions:
Jets / KC Under 39
Giants / Pittsburgh Over 42
New England -7 over Rams
Buffalo at Miami .. with Buffalo -1 , this line smells so bad. Normally I’d ask you to make a play on Miami here except their history in this spot is piss poor . I found one very good system on them so I think it’s best to pass this conflicting game altogether … Gun to my head ? … Miami
As Always
The Very Best of Luck ,
Neil
Here’s what happened …
Sometimes when lines move, teams and totals qualify or get disqualified as games to wager . This week we are affected by a number of moves, and changes are necessary.
So I think it’s best if I post the card each week on Thursday or Friday so we can avoid a lot of confusion.
Sorry for all these changes, but they’ve benefitted us in the NCAA already with the Thursday games , cancelling The Auburn Play which would have lost last night , and bumping up Air Force to a Top Winning Play. ( totals cancelled out )
This will be the last update … now we are all set ... I Promise.
Saturday NCAA :
I’m reversing ( with good reasons ) the Cincinnati / U Conn game … Make a Top Play on U Connecticut +3 to defeat Cincinnati
I’m also reaffirming that Purdue +2 should be made a Top Play
Michigan +4 was made a Top Play
Sunday NFL :
The Regular Play for Houston / Cincinnati to go Over the Total is now a No Play ... if anything , a leaner to the Under
Seattle +5 over San Francisco Remains a Regular Play and is not going to be upgraded.
Detroit +8 over Washington is added as a Regular
Here is the Entire Final Report for this weekend :
Saturday :
Underdog Game of the Week : Bowling Green + 8 to defeat Northern Illinois
Top Plays:
Kansas -1 over Texas Tech
Hawaii +4 over Nevada
U Connecticut +3 over Cincinnati
Louisiana Tech +3 over Army
Purdue pk over Minnesota
Arkansas +6 over Mississippi
UCLA + 18 over California … I like Rick Neuheisel in this spot.
Middle Tennessee St. +11 over Mississippi St.
Georgia Tech -11 over Virginia
Michigan +4 over Michigan State
The following Just Missed being Top Plays:
Rutgers +10 over Pittsburgh
Vanderbilt -10 over Duke
Navy -12 over SMU
Colorado St. -8 over San Diego St.
Idaho +14 over New Mexico St. … a possible upset
High Line Games worth considering :
TCU -31 over Wyoming
Colorado +22 over Missouri
Kentucky +25 over Florida
Ball St -24 over Eastern Michigan
UNLV +23 over BYU
************************************************
NFL Record :
First , let's deal with the game in London …
It's a horribly bad break for us that San Diego is playing New Orleans over there … for if the game were at The Superdome ( or in San Diego for that matter ) I would ask you to UNLOAD on the Over and also make a lesser but nevertheless a Big Play on The Chargers .
But … there's no telling what that field will be like condition - wise … we know it will probably be foggy and soggy and damp and divot - scarred and slow … but to what extent is a mystery. We also know that the food there is for the birds. Tough to get a fix on players ( and coaching performance ) when there are so many variables … let's face it … mixing NFL Football and Shepherd's Pie is just plain WRONG.
What I'm saying is that there are too many ifs to make man - sized plays on this game and this Europe nonsense has cheated us out of an what I believe would have been an extraordinary opportunity to make a meaningful score.
As for me I'm making a conservative wager on San Diego -3 and a larger on The Over 46 … but not nearly as much as I would have if this game were to be played where it's supposed to be played.
I only ever play games in which I have The Edge and although I'm aware I'm giving up a lot of my advantage by playing this game at all , I'll make somewhat of an exception with this one , based on all that I've found in my work.
That aside , here's the card (and I'm confident with it )
Top Plays:
Totals:
Monday Night Total of the Month … Indianapolis at Tennessee Over 41
Atlanta at Philadelphia Under 46
Seattle at San Francisco Over 40
Arizona at Carolina Under 44
Top Side Plays:
Baltimore -7 over Oakland is what I call a " Systems Dominator Game " … everything points toward The Ravens and against The Raiders … also very strong.
Dallas - 2 over Tampa Bay
Regular Plays :
St Louis / New England Over 42
Seattle +5 over San Francisco ... can't trust Seattle for anything more than a Regular Play.
Detroit +8 over Washington ... Washington is brutal following a home win as a 7+ fave
Opinions:
Jets / KC Under 39
Giants / Pittsburgh Over 42
New England -7 over Rams
Buffalo at Miami .. with Buffalo -1 , this line smells so bad. Normally I’d ask you to make a play on Miami here except their history in this spot is piss poor . I found one very good system on them so I think it’s best to pass this conflicting game altogether … Gun to my head ? … Miami
As Always
The Very Best of Luck ,
Neil
It's always noon somewhere! 
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