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Got a big week...12-5 heading in. Will have more plays closer to gametime. Good luck whoever you take!
1*: 1/3 to 1/4 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
You can see my past picks at www.byweekpicks.com
3* Miami +1.5 over Buffalo (Probable upgrade to 4*)
Buffalo may be 5-1 but I'm not drinking the Kool-Aid just yet. Their opponents have been terrible and the only above average team they beat is San Diego (and they are only slightly above average). Coming off a big win against the Chargers (even the coach said it was more important than any other regular season games) they won't have enough in their emotional tank to win on the road against a division foe. Buffalo will not be able to run the ball because Miami only allows 3.6 YPR (6th). Miami's pass defense has been struggling, but I still don't buy into Trent Edwards. Miami averages 4.1 YPR (16th) and this should stay similar as the Bills allow the same YPR. In the air Miami is tough throwing for 8 YPPA (6th). Miami does not apply for my super system (point differential needs to be 5), but I do have them as a 1.5 point favorite in this contest. There is a 220-112 money line trend favoring Miami. I see Miami rebounding big here after back to back losses including a home loss to the Ravens last week. This pick will retain its star value as long as Miami is less than a 3 point favorite.
3* Carolina -4 over Arizona (Possible upgrade to 4*)
Until Arizona proves they can win on the road and east coast I will bet against them. They beat SF week 1 on the road, but lost to the Skins and got blown out against the Jets. Their running game is terrible averaging 3.2 YPR (31st). Their strength is their passing game where Warner is averaging 8 YPPA (5th), but the Panther's D only allows 5.8 YPPA(2nd)! They were able to shut down Brees' passing game last week (that's why I bet them) and I look for them to do the same against the Cards. Carolina averages 3.7 YPR (26th), but the Cards allow 4 YPR. Jake Delhommeboy (9th in YPPA) is going to tear up a Cards team that allows 8 YPPA (26th) and 220 YPG in the air. My super system has Carolina-4, so the number is on the money. There is a great money line trend that is a 41-6 straight up winner over the last 5 years (as long as money line is -160 or greater). Zona will not be able too move the ball and they can't win on the east coast…I love the Panthers!
3* Cincinnati +10 over Houston
There teams stats are so similar, I can't believe the line is this high. I understand the Bengals are winless, but this is actually even more reason to play them! Winless teams are great plays in the NFL, especially when they are a big dog. In fact, winless road dogs are 51-18-3 ATS when favored by more than 6 points and playing subpar teams! Houston's running game is average gaining 4.4 YPR and the Bengal's allow the same. In the air Houston throws for 7.4 YPPA, but the Bengals are 6th in the league in pass D only allowing 6.4 YPPA. Fitzpatrick has played average at best (2 TD, 3 INT) but you and I can throw on the Texans who allow 8.5 YPPA (last in league). My super system only has the Texans as a 4.1 point favorite, so as long as the line is 9.5 or higher Cinci qualifies. Also Cincinatti's strength of schedule is on of the toughest in the league. This is actually the first game this year that applies to all of my methods of handicapping; stats, situation, super system, and trends, but I can't lay down a 4* on Fitzpatrick on the road, but I still love them. I actually think that the Bengals can get their first win here and given the value on the money line I would take it for 0.1 units at +330. This is a 3* at +8 or higher.
1* Philadelphia -9 over Atlanta
Atlanta has outplayed expectations this year, but they struggle on the road getting blown out versus Carolina and Tampa Bay. This week they have to travel to a Philly team that is off a bye and has gotten healthier. Atlanta's offensive strength is their running game where they average 5 YPR (2nd), but Philly only allows 3.5 YPR (5th) so this will be stalled. In the air Ryan has been average throwing for 7.2 YPPA (16th) and the Eagles allow 6.9 YPPA (14th). The Eagles running game has been poor this year averaging only 3.7 YPR (25th) but they are expected to get Westbrook back this week and the Falcons allow 4.4 YPR. McNabb looks like his old self and is average 265 YPG (5th) and will face a Hawks D that allows 230 YPG (26th). My super system has the Eagles as 9 point favs. There are 3 money line trends that are all 65% or better (straight up winner), including a 142-58 SU winer, and the team that wins ****** 85% of the time. There is also a 46-20 ATS trend playing on the Eagles because of the high scoring game they played 2 weeks ago. Blowout City!
1*: 1/3 to 1/4 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
You can see my past picks at www.byweekpicks.com
3* Miami +1.5 over Buffalo (Probable upgrade to 4*)
Buffalo may be 5-1 but I'm not drinking the Kool-Aid just yet. Their opponents have been terrible and the only above average team they beat is San Diego (and they are only slightly above average). Coming off a big win against the Chargers (even the coach said it was more important than any other regular season games) they won't have enough in their emotional tank to win on the road against a division foe. Buffalo will not be able to run the ball because Miami only allows 3.6 YPR (6th). Miami's pass defense has been struggling, but I still don't buy into Trent Edwards. Miami averages 4.1 YPR (16th) and this should stay similar as the Bills allow the same YPR. In the air Miami is tough throwing for 8 YPPA (6th). Miami does not apply for my super system (point differential needs to be 5), but I do have them as a 1.5 point favorite in this contest. There is a 220-112 money line trend favoring Miami. I see Miami rebounding big here after back to back losses including a home loss to the Ravens last week. This pick will retain its star value as long as Miami is less than a 3 point favorite.
3* Carolina -4 over Arizona (Possible upgrade to 4*)
Until Arizona proves they can win on the road and east coast I will bet against them. They beat SF week 1 on the road, but lost to the Skins and got blown out against the Jets. Their running game is terrible averaging 3.2 YPR (31st). Their strength is their passing game where Warner is averaging 8 YPPA (5th), but the Panther's D only allows 5.8 YPPA(2nd)! They were able to shut down Brees' passing game last week (that's why I bet them) and I look for them to do the same against the Cards. Carolina averages 3.7 YPR (26th), but the Cards allow 4 YPR. Jake Delhommeboy (9th in YPPA) is going to tear up a Cards team that allows 8 YPPA (26th) and 220 YPG in the air. My super system has Carolina-4, so the number is on the money. There is a great money line trend that is a 41-6 straight up winner over the last 5 years (as long as money line is -160 or greater). Zona will not be able too move the ball and they can't win on the east coast…I love the Panthers!
3* Cincinnati +10 over Houston
There teams stats are so similar, I can't believe the line is this high. I understand the Bengals are winless, but this is actually even more reason to play them! Winless teams are great plays in the NFL, especially when they are a big dog. In fact, winless road dogs are 51-18-3 ATS when favored by more than 6 points and playing subpar teams! Houston's running game is average gaining 4.4 YPR and the Bengal's allow the same. In the air Houston throws for 7.4 YPPA, but the Bengals are 6th in the league in pass D only allowing 6.4 YPPA. Fitzpatrick has played average at best (2 TD, 3 INT) but you and I can throw on the Texans who allow 8.5 YPPA (last in league). My super system only has the Texans as a 4.1 point favorite, so as long as the line is 9.5 or higher Cinci qualifies. Also Cincinatti's strength of schedule is on of the toughest in the league. This is actually the first game this year that applies to all of my methods of handicapping; stats, situation, super system, and trends, but I can't lay down a 4* on Fitzpatrick on the road, but I still love them. I actually think that the Bengals can get their first win here and given the value on the money line I would take it for 0.1 units at +330. This is a 3* at +8 or higher.
1* Philadelphia -9 over Atlanta
Atlanta has outplayed expectations this year, but they struggle on the road getting blown out versus Carolina and Tampa Bay. This week they have to travel to a Philly team that is off a bye and has gotten healthier. Atlanta's offensive strength is their running game where they average 5 YPR (2nd), but Philly only allows 3.5 YPR (5th) so this will be stalled. In the air Ryan has been average throwing for 7.2 YPPA (16th) and the Eagles allow 6.9 YPPA (14th). The Eagles running game has been poor this year averaging only 3.7 YPR (25th) but they are expected to get Westbrook back this week and the Falcons allow 4.4 YPR. McNabb looks like his old self and is average 265 YPG (5th) and will face a Hawks D that allows 230 YPG (26th). My super system has the Eagles as 9 point favs. There are 3 money line trends that are all 65% or better (straight up winner), including a 142-58 SU winer, and the team that wins ****** 85% of the time. There is also a 46-20 ATS trend playing on the Eagles because of the high scoring game they played 2 weeks ago. Blowout City!
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