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  • Goofy @SS Line of the Week...

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    The Tennessee Titans are favored by only 4 points at Home over the Colts. That's way off. That should be the line if they were playing at Indy.

    Either the Titans are not getting much respect or, more likely, Manning is getting a WHOLE LOT. Peyton Manning deserves the respect, but he can't do it by himself.

    The Colts are in a virtual must win situation--which makes going against them a scary prospect, especially with the venerable Manning at the helm. But to go with them you would have to take the brunt of a really bad line.

    I've been burned on this situation a number of times in the past. That is, when a long-time Dominant team in a particular division is in a must win versus a Divison opponent. I usually jump on the incumbent, and I usually get burned. Could this be one of those situations?

    I could be. The more I look at the game the more inclined I am to see this game as one that represents a changing of the guard in the AFC South. Whether that's the case or not, one thing is for sure...this is a Goofy @SS Line! It's a very weak and soft line, a situation that you don't get often...a very strong team at home at a very small number. This line should be in the neighborhood of -10.

    BANK IT: TITANS -4.0

    I could be wrong, but I think Tennessee will finally get their long overdue respect in this spot on Monday night. I think it is a statement game (I hate that term) that officially catapults them into the AFC Superbowl Favorite seat.

    Moreover, if the Titans roll, the Colts will be going home off two losses. This will compliment a potential GAME OF THE YEAR Status Double 30-10 Peak Situation. If the Patriots peak against the Rams (30-10), they will be a go against at the Colts Week 9. In the dbl 3010 setting, the Colts would be a play anyway, but it will be all the better if we get the Colts coming home off 2 straight losses. And if the Titans roll big, then the Colts are off two BIG losses, which not only means BOUNCE BACK, but also means better value in the line...

    Roll Pats...Roll Titans...

    -dave

  • #2
    the way I see it----the BOOKS might be wanting you to take the TITANS...

    gl to ya ---thanks as always DAVE----best to ya


    Don't make me go Cajun on your Ass!

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Kaptain View Post
      the way I see it----the BOOKS might be wanting you to take the TITANS...

      gl to ya ---thanks as always DAVE----best to ya
      You may be right Kapt. It's a tough call. The Colts really need this game and may get it. Indy is the "technical" play, the Titans are the "stat" play.

      What I often see happen is this: A team in the technical position gives it all they got, but in the end, they fail to get the cover vs the bad line; however, they "would have" covered against the correct line.

      Say the Colts lose by a touchdown. Whoever had the Colts by handicapping the game technically got it right...that is, if they had the Colts +9 or +10. I'm amazed at how often this happens ever since I've been using excel. So their thinking on the game was correct, but they got burned on a bad line.

      Saying all that, no one, including myself, will be surprised if the Colts win the game. I'm torn between which position is correct:

      Will the Colts win the must win game? Or is this a changing of the guard? If it's played on Sunday, it's a pass. But if I want a little Monday action, who to choose?

      Since the two opposing positions carry equal weight idealogically, it's a coin flip on which line of thinking to go with. The fact that the line is a joke makes up my mind, but not for a big play.

      If things line up right, the Big Play comes Week Nine...

      dave

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      • #4
        hey dave t check out coverboys thread for the week this might explain alot
        MLB 2012***100-98 +$215 OR +2.15 UNITS
        HUGE PLAYS 2-1

        NFL 2011-2012** 6-10
        0-0TOP PLAYS

        NCAA FBL 2011-2012**** 26-23

        4-1 TOP PLAYS


        GOY 33-12 ALL SPORTS

        AS of 6/3/12

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        • #5
          Originally posted by dave T View Post
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          The Tennessee Titans are favored by only 4 points at Home over the Colts. That's way off. That should be the line if they were playing at Indy.
          Pubic sentiment. The public is not ready to jump off the Indy wagon. That being said I don't agree the line should be Titans -10 at Tenn. IMO -6 or -7 would be accurate.

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          • #6
            good luck with Tenn., Dave T!

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            • #7
              Originally posted by frankb03 View Post
              Pubic sentiment. The public is not ready to jump off the Indy wagon. That being said I don't agree the line should be Titans -10 at Tenn. IMO -6 or -7 would be accurate.
              Thanx for posting. Ten points with the Colts seems surreal, it raised my eyebrows too. It's just a consensus/average line based on the three xl models, but it doesn't take into consideration all the variables, just numbers..

              gl,
              dave

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              • #8
                Originally posted by tech fan View Post
                hey dave t check out coverboys thread for the week this might explain alot

                Thanx man...

                http://www.bettorschat.com/forums/al...e-10-23-a.html

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                • #9
                  The line is all based on the QB's, yes Tennessee's Defense is much better than the Colts, but this is Kerry Collins against Peyton Manning. I see a let down by the Titans, but I could be wrong also.

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                  • #10
                    It's time for Tennessee to join the rest of the league...like Peyton in this one but GL
                    Great Day To Win

                    MLB 2008 (19-23-1) +3.0 units

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by ELJUGO View Post
                      It's time for Tennessee to join the rest of the league...like Peyton in this one but GL
                      There are some very good cappers here on the Colts. I've already got my play in @ -4.0, but I might come in on the other side and eat the juice. I'm undecided. My first thought was that the Colts really gotta' have the game and would bounce back after being trashed at Green Bay, but I've been burned a number of times in this exact situation. It's just a light play, so I'll probably leave it as it is. I'm still feeling like the this is the Titans game to silence the critics. They have the numbers to do it, they just have to avoid turnovers and mistakes...

                      dt

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