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NCAA Week 9
NFL Week 8
2008 Top Play Record for both NCAA and NFL Combined … 37-15
NCAA Record :
Last Week : The Special Game Lost as Missouri got crushed by Texas … the 5 other Top plays went 3-2
NCAA Record to Date:
Special Plays : 1-2 … ( disappointed and concerned )
Top Plays : 19-9
This Week's Games: There are a lot of Top Games this week and many just missed being Tops … I'll give you all I came up with in case you're on the fence with some of the matchups .
Thursday :
Auburn +3 over West Virginia ( just missed )
Air Force -5 over New Mexico ( just missed )
Saturday :
Underdog Game of the Week : Bowling Green + 8 to defeat Northern Illinois
Top Plays:
Kansas -1 over Texas Tech … a classic flip flop play
Hawaii +4 over Nevada … another mind boggling line
Cincinnati -1 over U Connecticut
Louisiana Tech +3 over Army
Purdue –1 over Minnesota … I know we've been burned with The Boils this year with their fat ass coach who can't peel an orange without losing his breath but this line is really wacked out and everyone is saying how Minnesota is the Cinderella Team in their Conference . I'm playing on Purdue once again.
Arkansas +5 over Mississippi
UCLA + 17 over California … I like Rick Neuheisel in this spot.
Middle Tennessee St. +11 over Mississippi St.
Georgia Tech –11 over Virginia … ( I hope this makes BC ‘s Tech Fan happy and I know winning this one will make all of us happy ) … we’ve cashed all year with Virginia but the line tells me the party’s over for the Cavs and this one’s a blow out. Feisty Virginia just beat North Carolina and now they’re a double digit dog to a team who just struggled with Lard Assed and Coachless Clemson , who’s QB is one of the worst I’ve seen in a long while. Feeling is most garden variety bettors will take the points , especially if they saw both teams play last Saturday … and I think they’ll be faked out of their shorts … Lay the wood with Ga. Tech and hopefully we will name the score.
The following Just Missed being Top Plays:
Rutgers +10 over Pittsburgh
Vanderbilt -10 over Duke
Navy -12 over SMU
Colorado St. -8 over San Diego St.
Idaho +15 over New Mexico St. … a possible upset
Ohio St. +3 over Penn St. … this is only a hunch and great big casinos in Vegas are built from hunches … Finally … Penn St. has to play a game against a decent team with a smart coach … up until now they've feasted primarily on weak teams and coaches , wouldn't you agree ? This will be somewhat of an indicator as to how legit they really are , or are they just frauds … Either way , the only team out there who would beat any of the other top 10 teams in the nation is Alabama. If you must play this game , go against the line move ... these 2 Big 10 outfits have a history of crucifying the "public bettor "
High Line Games worth considering :
TCU -31 over Wyoming
Colorado +22 over Missouri
Kentucky +25 over Florida
Ball St -24 over Eastern Michigan
UNLV +23 over BYU
************************************************
NFL Record :
Last Week : 4-0-1 … The Push was Giants / SF Under 46 … some of the guys got Under 46 ½ and 47 which makes me happy … Proving once again that shopping for the best lines is always beneficial .
Another Sweep ( 4-0 on opinions ) last Sunday and Monday Night
Top Plays are now 18-6
First , let's deal with the game in London …
It's a horribly bad break for us that San Diego is playing New Orleans over there … for if the game were at The Superdome ( or in San Diego for that matter ) I would ask you to UNLOAD on the Over and also make a lesser but nevertheless a Big Play on The Chargers .
But … there's no telling what that field will be like condition - wise … we know it will probably be foggy and soggy and damp and divot - scarred and slow … but to what extent is a mystery. We also know that the food there is for the birds. Tough to get a fix on players ( and coaching performance ) when there are so many variables … let's face it … mixing NFL Football and Shepherd's Pie is just plain WRONG.
What I'm saying is that there are too many ifs to make man - sized plays on this game and this Europe nonsense has cheated us out of an what I believe would have been an extraordinary opportunity to make a meaningful score.
As for me I'm making a conservative wager on San Diego -3 and a larger one on The Over 46 … but not nearly as much as I would have if this game were to be played where it's supposed to be played.
I only ever play games in which I have The Edge and although I'm aware I'm giving up a lot of my advantage by playing this game at all , I'll make somewhat of an exception with this one , based on all that I've found in my work.
That aside , here's the card (and I'm confident with it )
Top Plays:
Totals:
Monday Night Total of the Month … Indianapolis at Tennessee Over 41 … this one is neck and neck with S.D. / N.O. in strength. I can’t imagine having more than 3 or 4 higher rated totals plays for all of the remainder of the season.
Atlanta at Philadelphia Under 46
Seattle at San Francisco Over 41
Arizona at Carolina Under 44 … comes from the very same system ( 2 Overs / 34 Unders ) which gave us Green Bay / Seattle Under and New England / San Diego Under … both winning 2 weeks ago.
Top Side Plays:
Indianapolis +4 to defeat Tennessee on Monday Night is very strong .
Also , Baltimore -7 over Oakland is what I call a " Systems Dominator Game " … everything points toward The Ravens and against The Raiders … also very strong.
Right underneath is Dallas - 2 over Tampa Bay … This also is a very one - sided system game. Tampa Bay's tendencies in this situation are brutal while Dallas' are exceptionally good. What about the QB situation , you ask ? I'm more comfortable with Brad Johnson and a game under his belt than I am with Tony Romo , with whom I have little confidence. I'm sure his teammates are starting to feel the same way … it's awfully tough to gain respect and trust for a QB who fumbles when he so much as hears a fan sneeze in the stands. And his decision making has always stunk under extreme duress. On the other hand , Journeyman Johnson has been a pretty tough customer over the years and ( I'm hoping ) he's less likely to fold under pressure than that other guy.
Regular Plays :
St Louis / New England Over 43 ... both teams went over last week and that scares me a little
Cincinnati / Houston Over 44 ... same comment
Seattle +5 over San Francisco ... even though their coach is a drunk and the team has given up on him.
Opinions:
Jets / KC Under 39
Giants / Pittsburgh Over 42
New England -7 over Rams
Buffalo at Miami .. with Buffalo –1 , this line smells so bad. Normally I’d ask you to make a play on Miami here except their history in this spot is piss poor . I found one very good system on them so I think it’s best to pass this conflicting game altogether … Gun to my head ? … Miami
As Always
The Very Best of Luck ,
Neil
NCAA Week 9
NFL Week 8
2008 Top Play Record for both NCAA and NFL Combined … 37-15
NCAA Record :
Last Week : The Special Game Lost as Missouri got crushed by Texas … the 5 other Top plays went 3-2
NCAA Record to Date:
Special Plays : 1-2 … ( disappointed and concerned )
Top Plays : 19-9
This Week's Games: There are a lot of Top Games this week and many just missed being Tops … I'll give you all I came up with in case you're on the fence with some of the matchups .
Thursday :
Auburn +3 over West Virginia ( just missed )
Air Force -5 over New Mexico ( just missed )
Saturday :
Underdog Game of the Week : Bowling Green + 8 to defeat Northern Illinois
Top Plays:
Kansas -1 over Texas Tech … a classic flip flop play
Hawaii +4 over Nevada … another mind boggling line
Cincinnati -1 over U Connecticut
Louisiana Tech +3 over Army
Purdue –1 over Minnesota … I know we've been burned with The Boils this year with their fat ass coach who can't peel an orange without losing his breath but this line is really wacked out and everyone is saying how Minnesota is the Cinderella Team in their Conference . I'm playing on Purdue once again.
Arkansas +5 over Mississippi
UCLA + 17 over California … I like Rick Neuheisel in this spot.
Middle Tennessee St. +11 over Mississippi St.
Georgia Tech –11 over Virginia … ( I hope this makes BC ‘s Tech Fan happy and I know winning this one will make all of us happy ) … we’ve cashed all year with Virginia but the line tells me the party’s over for the Cavs and this one’s a blow out. Feisty Virginia just beat North Carolina and now they’re a double digit dog to a team who just struggled with Lard Assed and Coachless Clemson , who’s QB is one of the worst I’ve seen in a long while. Feeling is most garden variety bettors will take the points , especially if they saw both teams play last Saturday … and I think they’ll be faked out of their shorts … Lay the wood with Ga. Tech and hopefully we will name the score.
The following Just Missed being Top Plays:
Rutgers +10 over Pittsburgh
Vanderbilt -10 over Duke
Navy -12 over SMU
Colorado St. -8 over San Diego St.
Idaho +15 over New Mexico St. … a possible upset
Ohio St. +3 over Penn St. … this is only a hunch and great big casinos in Vegas are built from hunches … Finally … Penn St. has to play a game against a decent team with a smart coach … up until now they've feasted primarily on weak teams and coaches , wouldn't you agree ? This will be somewhat of an indicator as to how legit they really are , or are they just frauds … Either way , the only team out there who would beat any of the other top 10 teams in the nation is Alabama. If you must play this game , go against the line move ... these 2 Big 10 outfits have a history of crucifying the "public bettor "
High Line Games worth considering :
TCU -31 over Wyoming
Colorado +22 over Missouri
Kentucky +25 over Florida
Ball St -24 over Eastern Michigan
UNLV +23 over BYU
************************************************
NFL Record :
Last Week : 4-0-1 … The Push was Giants / SF Under 46 … some of the guys got Under 46 ½ and 47 which makes me happy … Proving once again that shopping for the best lines is always beneficial .
Another Sweep ( 4-0 on opinions ) last Sunday and Monday Night
Top Plays are now 18-6
First , let's deal with the game in London …
It's a horribly bad break for us that San Diego is playing New Orleans over there … for if the game were at The Superdome ( or in San Diego for that matter ) I would ask you to UNLOAD on the Over and also make a lesser but nevertheless a Big Play on The Chargers .
But … there's no telling what that field will be like condition - wise … we know it will probably be foggy and soggy and damp and divot - scarred and slow … but to what extent is a mystery. We also know that the food there is for the birds. Tough to get a fix on players ( and coaching performance ) when there are so many variables … let's face it … mixing NFL Football and Shepherd's Pie is just plain WRONG.
What I'm saying is that there are too many ifs to make man - sized plays on this game and this Europe nonsense has cheated us out of an what I believe would have been an extraordinary opportunity to make a meaningful score.
As for me I'm making a conservative wager on San Diego -3 and a larger one on The Over 46 … but not nearly as much as I would have if this game were to be played where it's supposed to be played.
I only ever play games in which I have The Edge and although I'm aware I'm giving up a lot of my advantage by playing this game at all , I'll make somewhat of an exception with this one , based on all that I've found in my work.
That aside , here's the card (and I'm confident with it )
Top Plays:
Totals:
Monday Night Total of the Month … Indianapolis at Tennessee Over 41 … this one is neck and neck with S.D. / N.O. in strength. I can’t imagine having more than 3 or 4 higher rated totals plays for all of the remainder of the season.
Atlanta at Philadelphia Under 46
Seattle at San Francisco Over 41
Arizona at Carolina Under 44 … comes from the very same system ( 2 Overs / 34 Unders ) which gave us Green Bay / Seattle Under and New England / San Diego Under … both winning 2 weeks ago.
Top Side Plays:
Indianapolis +4 to defeat Tennessee on Monday Night is very strong .
Also , Baltimore -7 over Oakland is what I call a " Systems Dominator Game " … everything points toward The Ravens and against The Raiders … also very strong.
Right underneath is Dallas - 2 over Tampa Bay … This also is a very one - sided system game. Tampa Bay's tendencies in this situation are brutal while Dallas' are exceptionally good. What about the QB situation , you ask ? I'm more comfortable with Brad Johnson and a game under his belt than I am with Tony Romo , with whom I have little confidence. I'm sure his teammates are starting to feel the same way … it's awfully tough to gain respect and trust for a QB who fumbles when he so much as hears a fan sneeze in the stands. And his decision making has always stunk under extreme duress. On the other hand , Journeyman Johnson has been a pretty tough customer over the years and ( I'm hoping ) he's less likely to fold under pressure than that other guy.
Regular Plays :
St Louis / New England Over 43 ... both teams went over last week and that scares me a little
Cincinnati / Houston Over 44 ... same comment
Seattle +5 over San Francisco ... even though their coach is a drunk and the team has given up on him.
Opinions:
Jets / KC Under 39
Giants / Pittsburgh Over 42
New England -7 over Rams
Buffalo at Miami .. with Buffalo –1 , this line smells so bad. Normally I’d ask you to make a play on Miami here except their history in this spot is piss poor . I found one very good system on them so I think it’s best to pass this conflicting game altogether … Gun to my head ? … Miami
As Always
The Very Best of Luck ,
Neil
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