NCAAF Week 9 Trends and Indexes 10/21 through 10/26

[Udog]

NCAAF


Friday, October 24

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Tips and Trends
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#12 Boise State at San Jose State [ESPN | 8 PM ET]

Boise State (-7.5, O/U 41): The 13th-ranked Broncos take one of the nation’s top scoring defenses into Spartan Stadium on Friday night to meet San Jose State. Boise State is second in the FBS in scoring defense, allowing 10.5 points per game. It’s given up more than seven points just once this season, in a 37-32 road victory over Oregon. They’re starting to rack up takeaways as well. Boise has 16 takeaways 20 sacks and 11 fourth-down stops in its last four games.

Boise State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 road games.
Boise State is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 conference games.

Key Injuries - DL Joe Bozikovich (shoulder) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

San Jose State: Like Boise State, San Jose State has benefited from a tough defense. The Spartans have given up 16.6 points per game, second among WAC teams. They had six sacks and forced four turnovers in a 31-14 road win over New Mexico State on Saturday. The Spartans are 0-8 in the series and 0-3 under Dick Tomey, who’s in his fourth season. San Jose State has also lost its last nine games against ranked opponents.

Boise State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games in October.
Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Key Injuries - DE Jeff Schweiger (ankle) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20

[pm530]

College Football – Write up

NCAAF
Write-up


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Friday's Game

Boise State struggled to win in last two visits here, winning 23-20 in '06, and 56-49 in OT in '04; home side covered four of last five series games. Broncos are more of defensive than in previous years, allowing seven or less points in four of five games vs D-I foes. They're 2-0 on road, 24-7 winners at Southern Miss (-9.5), 37-32 at Oregon (+10.5). Favorites are 8-4 vs spread in WAC games. San Jose scored 27 ppg in winning three games in row- they covered three of last four tries as an underdog.


Saturday's Games

Top 13 games

Purdue won nine of last ten vs Minnesota, but Boilers lost last four in a row overall, all by 13+ points, getting outscored 57-20 in second half of those games. Purdue is -6 in turnovers the last four games. Gophers are 6-1 after being 1-11 LY; they had last week off after winning at Illinois, their second road win in three tries. Minnesota is 7-1 vs spread in their last eight lined games.

Cincinnati won last three games vs UConn, 28-17/26-23/27-3; Bearcats expect to get QB Pike back from injury here (he is #2, but they had been using #3-4 QBs), while backup Fraser is QB for Huskies again. Cincy is 4-0 in last four games, allowing 13.8 ppg- they won at Akron, Marshall, lost at Oklahoma. Underdogs are 7-1 vs spread in Big East league games. UConn lost last two games, but is playing first home game in 5 weeks.

Wisconsin lost its last four games as once-promising season is in freefall; Badgers won four of last five vs Illinois, winning last two played here, 24-7/30-24, but they've switched QBs, scoring just 13.3 ppg last three games- they're -6 in turnovers the last two. Average total in Illinois' last four games is 60.5; Illini is 1-1 on road, losing 38-24 at Penn State (+14) winning 45-20 at Michigan (+2.5).

Houston Nutt went thru lot of drama in his last years as Arkansas coach; now he brings his Ole Miss Rebels in to play his old team. Nutt beat the Rebels in last four meetings in this series, as Ole Miss lost last two trips here, 35-3/38-3. Hogs lost four of last five games, beating dysfunctional Auburn- they blew 20-7 lead in last 5:00 at Kentucky last week. Rebels lost three of last four. SEC home teams are just 6-17 vs spread in 2008.

Vanderbilt becomes bowl eligible if they beat Duke; their last bowl was 1982-- Commodores won last six games vs Duke, which fell apart in the second half of last game, a 49-31 home loss to Miami, when Duke led in third quarter. SEC home favorites are 10-7 vs spread in non-league tilts. ACC underdogs are 6-2 out of conference. Duke is 23-11 vs spread as a road dog. Vandy covered three of last four as a home favorite.

Home side won last four Alabama-Tennessee games, with Tide losing its last two visits here, 17-13/16-13; three of last four series totals were 39 or less. Vols are struggling on offense- 14 of the 34 points they scored in last week's win were scored by the defense- that was first time Vols had scored more than 14 points in five games- they're +5 in turnovers in last two games. Bama is 2-0 on road (49-14 at Arkansas/41-30 at Georgia), bt in last two games, was outscored 31-3 in second half.

Oregon won last three games vs Arizona State, 31-17/35-23/48-13 but in their last game, a 31-24 home win vs UCLA, they were 5-19/42 passing, as #4 QB isn't much of passer. Arizona State lost last four games, with last three by combined score of 79-24. ASU converted 11 of last 54 on third down, not good. Pac-10 home teams are 13-5 vs spread in league games, 5-3 as underdog.

Home side covered nine of last 10 Virginia-Ga. Tech games, with home side winning last three. Virginia was 1-3, sinking fast, but then won three games in row, all as the underdog; they're +6 in turnovers in wins, -8 in losses. Georgia Tech is 6-1, winning its last four games (3-1 vs spread) outscoring those teams in first half, 48-3. Odd thing is, only Tech foe to hold them under 200 rushing yards in last five games was I-AA Gardner Webb. ACC home favorites are 4-8 vs spread.

Oklahoma State led Texas at halftime in four of last five meetings, but is still 0-5 in those games, losing by average score of 46-25. Both teams are unbeaten vs spread this season. OSU is 4-2-1 vs spread in last seven as an underdog, winning SU at Missouri two weeks ago. Colt McCoy has outrageous numbers; in his last two games, vs Oklahoma/Missouri, he is 58-68/665 passing. OSU led 28-14 at half LY, lost 38-35 to Longhorns.

Georgia covered seven of last ten as road dog; LSU is 3-14 as home fave, but slightly better 30% as single-digit favorite. Home team won five of six in this series- they also split pair of SEC title games. LSU had tough couple games last two weeks, losing 51-21 at Florida, then gutting out a 24-17 win last week at South Carolina. Georgia has wins at Arizona St and South Carolina, but is on road for the first time in five weeks.

Texas Tech scored 138 points in its last three games, converting 25 of its last 47 on third down, and running ball better than previous Tech teams. They have problem at K though- might use walk-on here. Oklahoma was 36-53/468 passing vs Kansas last week, gaining 674 yards, so TT likely to do similar damage thru air. Jayhawks covered 10 of last 11 home tilts. Big 12 favorites are 12-6 vs spread, 6-4 at home.

Ohio State has five wins in row since 35-3 loss at USC; last two weeks, they scored two defensive TDs and blocked punt for TD. Penn State is 0-7 in last seven visits here (0-7 vs spread, too). Closest game for JoePa has been 14 points (Illinois, Purdue); they outscored last three foes by a 66-6 margin in second half. OSU has 14 takeaways in last five games, for +10 TO margin. Will lack of tough games hurt Penn State here?

USC has outscored opponents 114-6 in second half of games; they shut out last two opponents, could be walking into Tucson hornet's nest that is buzzing about Lute Olson quitting as hoop coach. Arizona defense has scored in last two games, but also allowed 438-425 yards to Stanford and Cal- they outscored Bears 28-3 in second half last week. Home dogs are 5-3 vs spread in Pac-10 games this season.


Knowledge for rest of card

-- Army covered its last four games; they had won two in row, before a close loss to Buffalo last week. Louisiana Tech is 2-8 vs spread in its last ten non-conference road games.

-- Underdog covered five of last six Maryland games (5-1 SU). NC State allowed 35 ppg in losing its last three games. Home favorites are 4-8 vs spread in ACC league games.

-- Wake Forest scored total of 61 points in splitting its last four games; if they didn't have a +9 turnover ratio, they'd be in trouble. Miami trailed in second half at Duke last game, rallied for an important 49-31 win, but in last four games, they've thrown 11 INTs.

-- Northwestern won eight of last ten vs Indiana, with two of last three going OT; Wildcats are 7-3 vs spread in last ten games as road favorite. Indiana allowed 40 ppg in losing its last five games.

-- North Carolina scored 29+ points in its five wins, 17-13 in its losses; their best WR is out and their #3 QB starts- they had won three games in row before losing in OT at Virginia last week. Boston College is 5-1, but is -7 in turnovers their last two games.

-- Rutgers got its first D-I win of season last week when UConn's FG hit the right upright with 1:12 left; they beat Pitt last three games, by 37-29/ 20-10/20-16 scores. Panthers won last five games, scoring 30 ppg.

-- Texas A&M won last three trips to Iowa State by 29-10 average, but these Aggies allowed 47.7 ppg in losing last three games. Cyclones lost last five games, giving up 35.5 ppg in last four. Big 12 home favorites are 6-4 against spread this season.

-- Florida won last 21 games vs Kentucky, winning last two played in Swamp, 20-3/26-7, but UK covered five of last six in series; Gators have Georgia up next- they scored 89 points in winning last two games, have covered three of four as home favorite this season.

-- Ball State is 7-0, winning home games by 22-21 points; they're 5-1 vs spread this season, and won last three games vs Eastern Michigan, 26-25 38-20/38-16. Eagles lost six of last seven games, but their last three tilts were all decided by seven or less points.

-- UNLV lost tough game at home to Air Force last week; they lost last three games vs BYU, 55-14/52-7/24-14. BYU had first loss last week at TCU, after winning previous four games by 20+ points. UNLV allowed 39.7 ppg in losing last three games by 22-1-13 points.

-- Underdog covered five of last seven Rice-Tulane games, with Tulane winning last two, 38-24/45-31; Rice is 4-3, scoring 42+ points in its four wins, 21-10-28 in losses. Tulane lost last two, but had last week off, as OWls were winning wild 45-40 home game with Southern Miss.

-- Home team won last three Fresno-Utah State games; Bulldogs lost in last visit here 13-12, as 27-point favorites. Aggies are 1-6, losing its last three games by 20-23-27 points. Freso's last three wins are by 1-5-13 points. WAC underdogs are 4-8, 0-2 against the spread.

-- SMU is getting better in first year under Jones, scoring 31-38 points in last two games, losing late leads in both games (they led unbeaten Tulsa in second half)- they're 3-0-1 vs spread in last four games. Navy is 3-3 vs D-I opponents, with wins by 2-7-6 points.

-- Home side won last five Cal-UCLA games, with Bruins losing last two visits here, 45-28/38-24; Bears are 3-0 at home, winning by 7-35-10 pts. Pac-10 home favorites are 8-2 vs spread. UCLA covered last four games their last two losses are by 5-7 points.

-- Road team won four of last five Miami-Kent games; Miami got first win vs D-I opponent last week, Kent is 0-6 vs D-I foes. MAC favorites are 4-10 vs spread at home. Miami is just 9 for last 30 on third down.

-- Oklahoma won last two games vs K-State, 43-21/31-21; Sooners are struggling on defense, allowing 76 points in last two games. K-State has five special teams TDs this year, but their defense has just 4 takeaways in their last five games. Big 12 home underdogs are 2-6 vs spread.

-- Michigan is 2-5, likely staying home for holidays; they've won six in a row vs Michigan State; Spartans lost last eight visits here, and got waxed at home by Ohio State last week, 45-7. Wolverines were outscored 66-6 in second half of their last three games.

-- Florida State won its last three games, scoring 35.3 ppg; they're 21-34 on third down in last two games, getting better QB play than last year, in 40-21 loss in Blacksburg. Hokies scored two TDs at Boston College last week and still lost, completing just 12-27 passes for 90 yards.

-- Northern Illinois is 5-1 vs spread in '08, winning three of last four vs D-I foes- they covered three of last four home games. Bowling Green is 4-0 vs spread on road this year, with only loss 20-7 at Boise St. MAC home favorites are 4-10 vs spread.

-- Idaho won three of last four games vs New Mexico State, but Vandals are 0-18 vs D-I foes last two years (1-5 vs spread in last six); their home losses this season are by 23-35 points. New Mexico State is 2-3, with its wins by 1-3 points.

-- Not only is Wyoming 1-5 vs D-I foes, losing last four by a combined score of 153-23, but now they visit TCU squad they beat 24-21 LY, as Wyoming ran ball for 232 yards. Frogs are 3-0 as home favorite, are off 32-7 beating of previously unbeaten BYU.

-- Toledo lost 38-7 to Northern Illinois last week after beating Michigan the week before; Rockets' last three losses are all by 19+ points. Central Michigan won with its backup QB last week, but he has started before. Chippewas won last three games, scoring 29.7 ppg.

-- Home team won last four South Florida-Louisville games, with Bulls losing last two visits here, 41-9/31-8. Last four series games were all won by 23+ points. Cards scored 77 points in winning its last two games, scoring TDs on special teams in both games. Trap game for the Bulls.

-- Nebraska won last six games vs Baylor by average of 36 points; they scored 30+ points in six of seven games, but lost three of last four tilts, are 3-2 as favorite in '08. Bears are 5-13 vs spread in Big 12 road games, covering one of last eight.

-- Missouri lost last two games, allowing 84 points; home side won four of their last five games vs Colorado, with Buffs losing last two visits to Columbia, 17-9/28-13. Coach Hawkins benched his QB son for while vs K-State last week, put him back in and he led Colorado to 14-13 win.

-- Memphis has major QB injury issues, as #4 QB took redshirt off last week in 30-10 loss at East Carolina; road team won Tigers' last three vs Southern Miss, with Eagles winning 42-21 in last visit here. USM lost its last four games, allowing average of 35.8 ppg.

-- Washington is 0-5, its QB is out for year, its coach about to be fired, and now Willingham's old team, Notre Dame is in Seattle. Irish are 0-2 on road, losing 23-7 at Michigan State, 29-24 at North Carolina (-5 in TOs). Three of Huskies' last four losses were by 21+ points.

-- San Diego State won last three games vs Colorado State, 30-10/17-6/ 24-20, but in losing last three games, allowed 1,203 rushing yards and 146 yards, hideous numbers. Rams lost three of last four games, scoring total of 23 points- they're 0-3 on the road (17-38/7-42/16-49).

-- Home side won four of last five Nevada-Hawai'i games, as Wolf Pack lost last two visits here, 48-16/41-34. Warriors have 24 turnovers in its seven games (-10), allowed 300+ rushing yards in two of last three tilts. Nevada scored 44+ points in each of its last four games.

-- Mississippi State's offense gave up two TD in 34-3 loss in Knoxville last week. Middle Tennessee is 2-5, but beat Maryland, led Louisville last week- they're a capable underdog. SEC home favorites are 10-7 out of conference, Sun Belt road dogs 10-9.

-- Visitor won last three FAU-ULM games; UL-Monroe won last couple visits to FAU, 28-21/33-30ot. Sun Belt home dogs are 1-5 vs spread in league games. Monroe scored 33 ppg in last three games but won a week ago for their first win in six games vs D-I opponents.

-- Home side won last four Troy-North Texas games, but Mean Green were good last time Trojans visited Denton- they're not good now. Troy is 3-2 vs D-I teams, with wins by 14-13-10 points. North Texas is 0-3 as home dog this season, losing at home by 30-32-29 points.

Sunday's game

Tulsa scored 77 points vs UTEP last week; they lost twice to Central Florida LY, including C-USA title game. UCF is 1-4 vs D-I foes, losing 20-14 to Miami in last game, with neither UCF TD scored by offense (total yardage- 216-78, Miami). Tulsa is scoring 55.7 ppg vs D-I teams, with just a +4 turnover margin- they've run ball for 329-286-321-321 in their last four games, just very well balanced offense.

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[pm530]

College Football - Dunkel Index

NCAAF
Dunkel Index

Central Florida at Tulsa

The Knights have struggled to a 2-4 start, but look to take advantage of a Tulsa team that is 4-7 ATS over the last three seasons against teams with a losing record. Central Florida is the underdog pick (+23 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Tulsa favored by just 20. Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (+23 1/2).

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 26

Game 223-224: Central Florida at Tulsa
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 80.230; Tulsa 100.365
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 20; 64
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 23 1/2; 69 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (+23 1/2); Under

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[pm530]

College Football – Long Sheet

NCAAF
Long Sheet


Sunday, October 26

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UCF (2 - 4) at TULSA (7 - 0) - 10/26/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULSA is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
UCF is 2-0 against the spread versus TULSA over the last 3 seasons
UCF is 2-0 straight up against TULSA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

College Football – Short Sheet

NCAAF
Short Sheet


Sunday, October 26th

Central Florida at Tulsa , 8:00 ET ESPN
Central Florida: 8-19 ATS after covering 2 of their last 3 ATS
Tulsa: 6-0 Under after allowing 31+ points BB Games

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[pm530]

College Football – Write up

NCAAF
Write-up

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Sunday's game

Tulsa scored 77 points vs UTEP last week; they lost twice to Central Florida LY, including C-USA title game. UCF is 1-4 vs D-I foes, losing 20-14 to Miami in last game, with neither UCF TD scored by offense (total yardage- 216-78, Miami). Tulsa is scoring 55.7 ppg vs D-I teams, with just a +4 turnover margin- they've run ball for 329-286-321-321 in their last four games, just very well balanced offense.

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[pm530]

College Football – Trend Sheet

NCAAF



Sunday, October 26

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Trend Sheet
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8:00 PM CENTRAL FLORIDA vs. TULSA
Central Florida is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Central Florida is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Tulsa is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Tulsa is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

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[Udog]

NCAAF


Sunday, October 26

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Tips and Trends
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Central Florida at #19 Tulsa [ESPN | 8 PM ET]

Central Florida: Central Florida is going to need its best offensive output of the season to keep up with the explosive Golden Hurricane. The Knights have scored only 12 offensive touchdowns this season. UCF has averaged just 126.7 rushing yards and 121.7 passing yards per game and has converted only 29 percent (28-of-97) of its third-down opportunities. While UCF has struggled on offense, they do have the defense to give Tulsa fits. The Knights defense has picked off 13 passes, registered 13 sacks and has recorded 47 tackles behind the line of scrimmage.

UCF is 11-23-1 ATS in its last 35 road games.
UCF is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following a ATS win.

Key Injuries - QB Michael Greco (leg) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21

Tulsa (-24, O/U 69): The Golden Hurricane leads the nation with 624.7 yards and 56.6 points per game, and they’re off to their best start since 1942. Tulsa racked up 791 yards of offense en route to a 77-35 victory over Texas-El Paso last Saturday. Tulsa has rushed for more than 300 yards in four straight games and has scored at least 62 points in three of those games. While everyone knows about the Golden Hurricane offense, their defense isn’t too shabby either. They rank third in the league against the run (136.1) and 21st nationally in quarterback sacks with 2.7 per game after recording six last week against UTEP.

Tulsa is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home games.
Tulsa is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games overall.

Key Injuries - FB Charles Clay (unknown) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 45