Tuesday Trends and Indexes 10/21 (NHL, World Series, Misc.)

[Udog]

NHL
Long Sheet


Tuesday, October 21


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VANCOUVER (3-3-0-0, 6 pts.) at COLUMBUS (2-3-0-0, 4 pts.) - 10/21/2008, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLUMBUS is 60-43 ATS (+112.2 Units) in home games after a division game since 1996.
COLUMBUS is 19-9 ATS (+29.9 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.
COLUMBUS is 63-49 ATS (+121.9 Units) in home games after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLUMBUS is 4-4 (+1.0 Units) against the spread versus VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
COLUMBUS is 4-4-0 straight up against VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+5.0 Units)

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BOSTON (2-1-0-2, 6 pts.) at BUFFALO (4-0-0-1, 9 pts.) - 10/21/2008, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 181-122 ATS (+30.3 Units) vs. division opponents since 1996.
BOSTON is 20-16 ATS (+43.4 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 10-6-0 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
9 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.5 Units)

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ANAHEIM (1-5-0-0, 2 pts.) at TORONTO (1-2-0-2, 4 pts.) - 10/21/2008, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ANAHEIM is 19-26 ATS (-21.9 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
ANAHEIM is 69-56 ATS (+136.3 Units) in road games after a non-conference game since 1996.
ANAHEIM is 13-2 ATS (+9.5 Units) after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 4-11 ATS (+15.6 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 7-14 ATS (-10.9 Units) in home games first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 30-44 ATS (+82.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 5-14 ATS (-15.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ANAHEIM is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
ANAHEIM is 1-0-0 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.0 Units)

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ATLANTA (2-2-0-1, 5 pts.) at TAMPA BAY (0-2-0-3, 3 pts.) - 10/21/2008, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 0-5 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 0-5 ATS (-7.2 Units) first half of the season this season.
TAMPA BAY is 15-34 ATS (+49.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 8-20 ATS (-16.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 9-7 (+2.6 Units) against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 9-7-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
8 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.7 Units, Under=-1.0 Units)

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WASHINGTON (3-1-0-1, 7 pts.) at CALGARY (1-3-0-1, 3 pts.) - 10/21/2008, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 84-124 ATS (-43.0 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
CALGARY is 10-15 ATS (-15.9 Units) in home games first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-0 (+2.8 Units) against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 2-0-0 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.1 Units, Under=-0.1 Units)

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[Udog]

NHL
Short Sheet


Tuesday, October 21st

Vancouver at Columbus, 7:05 ET
Vancouver: 5-16 SU after failing to cover 3 of their last 4
Columbus: 7-1 SU at home off a blowout loss by 3+ goals to a division rival

Boston at Buffalo, 7:05 ET
Boston: 12-19 SU when playing on back-to-back days
Buffalo: 14-6 SU on Tuesday nights

Anaheim at Toronto, 7:05 ET
Anaheim: 14-6 SU after playing 3 consecutive home games
Toronto: 4-11 SU at home where the total is 5.5

Atlanta at Tampa Bay, 7:35 ET
Atlanta: 10-1 SU off a close home win by 1 goal
Tampa Bay: 0-9 SU after 2 straight close losses by 1 goal

Washington at Calgary, 9:35 ET
Washington: 12-7 SU AWAY after one or more consecutive overs
Calgary: 16-31 SU off a close loss by 1 goal to a division rival

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

MLB


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Phillies vs. Rays: World Series preview and pick
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(+134) Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay Rays (-144)

Tampa Bay comes into the World Series with just two days rest after their classic battle with the Red Sox in the ALCS. Meanwhile, the Phillies will be a full week removed from their pennant clinching victory in Game 5 of the NLCS. A lot of attention will probably be paid to this, but you should pretty much ignore it. If the Rays win, the media will say the long layoff hurt the Phillies; if Philadelphia wins, they will say it’s because the Rays were exhausted from the Red Sox series. Neither are necessarily false, but neither are necessarily true either; notice how nobody is making either of these statements with much confidence right now.

As for the actual games on the field, the Game 1 line is very telling, with the Phillies, on the road, actually being a slight favorite. With Hamels essentially cancelling out Tampa’s home-field advantage, both for the game and for the series, the Rays would have to have a huge advantage in their other three home games to justify laying -144. They do an edge in all three games, with Myers vs. Shields twice, and then Matt Garza potentially pitching another Game 7 against Jamie Moyer. But the Phillies have three home games themselves. They’ll be big favorites when Hamels pitches in Citizen’s Bank Park, and will likely also be favored with Joe Blanton on the hill in Game 5. I don’t know if it’s because the books are trying to hedge against all the preseason Rays futures, but the value here seems to lie in the plus money with Philadelphia.

One slight area of concern there would be the apparent huge gap between the two leagues. The AL’s All-Star Game and World Series dominance is nice anecdotal evidence, but here’s what really matters: there were 252 interleague games played this year, and the AL won 59.1 percent of them. This was no fluke either; the NL didn’t do much better from 2005-2007, winning just 43.5 percent.

Verdict: There’s no question that the AL is the superior league, and Tampa just emerged from the toughest division in that league. But I still don’t think that justifies laying this much chalk against a very strong Phillies team, so I’m going Philadelphia in seven.


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