Superbowl Matchup (Excel)

[dave T]

SUPERBOWL: GIANTS OVER TITANS

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: TITANS OVER STEELERS
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP: GIANTS OVER COWBOYS

AFC EAST: BILLS
AFC NORTH: STEELERS
AFC SOUTH: TITANS
AFC WEST: CHARGERS
AFC WILDCARDS: RAVENS AND JETS

NFC EAST: GIANTS
NFC NORTH: BEARS
NFC SOUTH: BUCS
NFC WEST: CARDINALS
NFC WILDCARDS: COWBOYS AND EAGLES


TOP 10 TEAMS:

1.) GIANTS
2.) TITANS
3.) COWBOYS
4.) EAGLES
5.) STEELERS
6.) BUCS
7.) PANTHERS
8.) REDSKINS
9.) BEARS
10.) BILLS


TOP 10 OFFENSES:

1.) COWBOYS
2.) GIANTS
3.) BRONCOS
4.) CHARGERS
5.) SAINTS
6.) FALCONS
7.) CARDINALS
8.) EAGLES
9.) TEXANS
10.) PACKERS


TOP 10 DEFENSES:

1.) STEELERS
2.) TITANS
3.) RAVENS
4.) PANTHERS
5.) GIANTS
6.) BUCS
7.) REDSKINS
8.) EAGLES
9.) BEARS
10.) BILLS


TOP 10 OFFENSIVE YARDS PER POINT:

1.) PACKERS
2.) CHARGERS
3.) BEARS
4.) CARDINALS
5.) JETS
6.) EAGLES
7.) TITANS
8.) STEELERS
9.) BILLS
10.) 49ERS


WEEK 8 LINE (EXCEL):

HOU -6' vs Cin
BAL -8 vs Oak
CAR -4 vs Ari
DAL -1 vs Tam
Was -6' @ DET
MIA Pk vs Buf
NE -11 vs Stl
Sdg Pk vs Nor
NYJ -12 vs Kc
PHI -6 vs Atl
JAX -4 vs Cle
PIT -1 vs Nyg
SFO -6 vs Sea
TEN -10 vs Ind


-dt

[jmarty6969]

i have always loved this program u put up buddy

thanks a million times over

[frankb03]

When does your program spit out its official picks?

[dave T]

i have always loved this program u put up buddy

thanks a million times over

No problem man....thanx for posting....

dave

[dave T]

When does your program spit out its official picks?

I am most comfortable with each team having 6 games under their belt, which means this week would be the start.

I like to look for crazy lines. Last year the Broncos were favored by 2.5 at Houston, but the program had Houston -4.5 instead of +2.5. Houston rolled 31-13. There's a number of examples like that.

Another thing I'm interested in this year is the Offensive Yards per point. The last five seasons the Top Six teams are over 70% ATS from weeks 8-15 if you ignore double digit games and lay no more than -5.0 on the road.

It's rare, but occasionally one of the Top Six teams in OYPP will be a sizable underdog. I would stay away from them if they are a dog of a touchdown or more.

This week two of the teams have byes (Grb, Chi); one is a double digit game (Nyj); and the other 3 are "plays" (Ari, Phi, Sdg).

I like that soft line on the Rams-Patriots game. I'm thinking about a 2-team tease with Pats/Philly....

p.s.-That Indy-TEN game is a soft line too, but I'm not crazy about going against the Colts in a virtual must win game and coming off a loss looking to rebound. Prefer to look for reasons to go "with" Manning and not against.

gl,
dave

[***THA FIX***]

Thanks Dave good stuff!!!

[BillMill71]

Thanks Dave

[poskid]

Dave I need a quick clarification for the top 6. do we ignore road dogs of more than 5 or road favs of more than 5??? Or do we ignore >5 point games whenever the team is on the road???

PK

[frankb03]

Another thing I'm interested in this year is the Offensive Yards per point. The last five seasons the Top Six teams are over 70% ATS from weeks 8-15 if you ignore double digit games and lay no more than -5.0 on the road.

Using your criteria here's the Top 6 teams in YPP. The first number represents the YPP followed by this weeks line.

Packers 11.87 bye
Chargers 11.94 -3
Bears 11.98 bye
Cards 12.20 +4
Jets 12.34 -13
Eagles 12.55 -9

[frankb03]

Dave I need a quick clarification for the top 6. do we ignore road dogs of more than 5 or road favs of more than 5??? Or do we ignore >5 point games whenever the team is on the road???

PK

lay no more than -5.0 on the road.

My guess is we ignore road favorites of more than 5.

[dave T]

Dave I need a quick clarification for the top 6. do we ignore road dogs of more than 5 or road favs of more than 5??? Or do we ignore >5 point games whenever the team is on the road???

PK

Go WITH the Top Six teams in Offensive Yards Per Point (the lower the number, the better) unless of course they are playing head to head, then it's a cancel out. I post these each week in my Superbowl thread just beneath the Top Defenses.

If you do that, it has a solid winning record for the last 5 seasons. But you can eliminate some 50/50 stuff, I call them juice burners, if you do this...

1.) Just stay away from double digit games.

2.) Lay up to -5.0 on the road, but no more.

3.) Although it's rare, if a Top Six team in OYPP is an underdog of +7.0 or more, I would lay off the game.

If you like a lot of action, you can ignore the criteria. But over 5 seasons each one of them are virtual 50/50 bets, give or take a percentage point or two.

I think in my Week 6 or 7 posting I listed the actual ATS records. It's pretty solid.

This season it's 6-3 ATS weeks 5-7 using the criteria, but over the last 5 seasons it's only 25-20 ATS using the criteria during weeks 5-7, which is far below the percentage for weeks 8-15.

I do not look at results for weeks 16 and 17 with any system for a number of reasons...

gl,
dave

[poskid]

Thanx Dave

PK