? on the Monday Night Game, Could use Suggestions

[FB Coach13]

Heres what i got goin on, every week i play a parlay type deal put on my my local, its called a "pick 6". You must play 6 games and choose from all the NFL games {sides} and a few select college games and NFL totals. There are several hundred entries in this each week, and there can be multiple winners, and usually are. I am 5 for 5 right now with the Monday night game to go. I have the Under 47 for tonite. So my question is do i bet the over with my local, to try win somehting either way, just let it go and dont bet the total and hope the under comes in, or alittle more daring play the under and try and really hit big. The only thing i worry about is i have it at 47 on the pick 6 by kickoff i have a feeling the total will be at 50 or right below, so if i bet the over i may have a 1-3 point window where i could lose both, that would make me sick. I have been thinking of what i should do since yesterday afternoon and am struggling to come to a decision, so hoping you guys could help. Also i CAN NOT buy points from my local so thats not a option. Thanks in advance for the input, also let me know what you guys think of the total.

FB coach

[Chado1]

First of all how much would you win in the pick 6 thing if the under came through? Second off all depends how confident you feel in it. One rule of thumb I have always heard is to guarantee yourself free money. Basically bet the over for the amount it cost you to get into the pick 6 so that you have a freeroll on it. If it comes through you hit the pick 6 or whatever and if the game goes over you break even because you bet the amount it cost on the over. JMHO...GL!!!

[NoCashMcgraff]

First of all how much would you win in the pick 6 thing if the under came through? Second off all depends how confident you feel in it. One rule of thumb I have always heard is to guarantee yourself free money. Basically bet the over for the amount it cost you to get into the pick 6 so that you have a freeroll on it. If it comes through you hit the pick 6 or whatever and if the game goes over you break even because you bet the amount it cost on the over. JMHO...GL!!!

That is pretty good advice right there - however, and this is just my 2 cents. I would imagine the cost to get into the pick 6 would have to be small, I do not see hundreds of people playing a pick 6 wagering anything big. What I am getting at is - lets say you paid 10 bucks to get in or 20 or even 50 (which I doubt) in my opinion it is DUMB to bet the over for that equal amount. Saving yourself that 10, 20, or 50 bucks in my opinion doesn't accomplish enough.

What I would recommend is and I am just throwing numbers out there bc I dont know what the actualy numbers are - is lets say if your pick 6 hits - you win 500 bucks, I would say bet $250 bucks on the over and guarantee and $250 profit.

I understand your concern with getting middled if the line moves, but I would still probably do it. I definitely do NOT see the line moving 2 or 3 pts by kickoff. Can't you call your book and lock in the over at whatever he has the line at now -to avoid getting screwed if it does go up?

[aces r wild]

If the total was going to be the same, i'd say bet the over and take some free money.
The problem is, as you know, the total is not going to be same and you could lose both.
So in that case, i wouldn't touch the total tonight, just bet the side.

[vols fan]

When you first made the bet you did it to see if you could hit all six and feel the thrill of having it come down to one game.Well now it's here and I say roll with it.any other play is going to take away from the excitement.I would think if theres that many people involved and it's a pick 6 you cant have more than $10 or $20 bucks involved.LET IT HUNT COACH

[NoCashMcgraff]

When you first made the bet you did it to see if you could hit all six and feel the thrill of having it come down to one game.Well now it's here and I say roll with it.any other play is going to take away from the excitement.I would think if theres that many people involved and it's a pick 6 you cant have more than $10 or $20 bucks involved.LET IT HUNT COACH

when I said 10 or 20 bucks - I was referring to the amount EACH person initially put up - not the sum of them all.

[vols fan]

when I said 10 or 20 bucks - I was referring to the amount EACH person initially put up - not the sum of them all.

So was I.He can't have more than $10 or $20 involved(of his own money) so he should let it ride

[Chado1]

I agree fellas under this specific circumstance let it ride ONLY if the initial amount to get in it is such a small amount that it doesnt even matter losing it. However in any other situtations where you have lets say a parlay for like $100, $200 dollars wagered or whatever coming down to one game I have always been told to take the free money and hedge to ensure profit.

[NoCashMcgraff]

So was I.He can't have more than $10 or $20 involved(of his own money) so he should let it ride

lol im an idiot lol, sorry! I read your initial post wrong.

It all boils down to how much he can win. If it is something he considers very large - I would hedge. If it isn't anything too big - I would probably let it ride too.

The fun factor definitely goes away if you hedge - but is he playing for fun or to make money. or both !

[vols fan]

The fun factor definitely goes away if you hedge - but is he playing for fun or to make money. or both !

Thats exactly how I feel also.If you have $10 in it,have fun and let it ride.

[FB Coach13]

U guys are on it cost $10 to get in, and the amount you win depends on how many people entered this week and how many winners there are for this week. The total my local uses is about from 2-3 hours before kickoff and right now its at 48 1/2. Thanks for the opinions guys, greatly appreciated!

[vols fan]

I agree fellas under this specific circumstance let it ride ONLY if the initial amount to get in it is such a small amount that it doesnt even matter losing it. However in any other situtations where you have lets say a parlay for like $100, $200 dollars wagered or whatever coming down to one game I have always been told to take the free money and hedge to ensure profit.

I can gurantee his local ain't keeping up with trying to collect $10,000 each week for a pick 6 parlay if someone hits it at $100 each person.Thats alot of people taking a big chance on a 6 game parlay.$10 or $20 makes it easy and allows alot more people to play with a low buy in.

[vols fan]

U guys are on it cost $10 to get in, and the amount you win depends on how many people entered this week and how many winners there are for this week. The total my local uses is about from 2-3 hours before kickoff and right now its at 48 1/2. Thanks for the opinions guys, greatly appreciated!

If you owe your local some money,i might try to win that back on the total but if your up or just down a little I would let it ride.
******************* WARNING: This logic is why I come home broke from Vegas everytime. I always get up then try to get my money back from the last trip and give it all back

[Kaptain]

do as you wish coach----you've got advice from others in here, some of it makes sense, some of it is BS....some of em even contradict themselves..........
When you made the original 6 picks, did you get our advice on any of em....hell no....

you're a good capper, let er ride....

when I make a play that creates a potential hedge, such as this ,

I don't even look at the HEDGE....If it was good enough IMO earlier to go under, than it ought to be good enough now....

I SAY LEAVE IT ALONE.........go fo the gusto....thats what us crazy gamblers are all about....jusy my honest opinion...

Best to ya---what ever you do

[jmarty6969]

i had this game pegged at 42 can all monday night totals go over the total i say no u r on right side buddy but just my observasion on the matter gl wish i had this delemy