Saturday Trends and Indexes 10/18 (MLB, CFL, NHL, Misc.)

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Saturday, October 18

Good Luck on day #292 of 2008!


For College Football and the NFL, see separate threads to be posted and updated:

• “NCAA Week 8 Trends and Indexes 10/16 through 10/18”
• “NFL Week 7 Trends and Indexes 10/19 and 10/20”


For now, the balance of the sports menu in this thread will consist of Major League Baseball, the Canadian Football League, and the NHL until their seasons are played out. Also, general sports news and notes will still be posted here.

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.
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[pm530]

Daily Sports Roundup

Saturday, October 18

The Rays will take a second shot at a berth in the World Series on Saturday, while college football offers up a full day of pigskin action. Here's your Daily Sports Roundup.

The Gridiron Spotlight

The Texas Longhorns knocked off then-No. 1 Oklahoma last week to take over top spot in the rankings, so what are they going to do for an encore on Saturday? Well, if they hope to hold onto that No. 1 position they're going to have to beat No. 11 Missouri, who are coming off their first loss (vs. Oklahoma State). Texas is listed as a 4-point favorite.

No. 2 Alabama will host Mississippi as a 12-point favorite on Saturday, while No. 3 Penn State is favored by 24.5 points at home against Michigan, and No. 4 Oklahoma will try to move back up the polls with a win as 19.5-point home faves versus No. 16 Kansas.

Other Top-10 teams in action on Saturday: No. 6 USC (-42.5) at Washington State, No. 7 Texas Tech (-21) at Texas A&M, Baylor at No. 8 Oklahoma State (-17), and No. 22 Vanderbilt at No. 10 Georgia (-14.5). No. 5 Florida is off. No. 9 BYU lost on Thursday.

Other Notable Events

Tampa Bay looked like they were well on their way to dispatching the Red Sox in Game 5 of the ALCS on Thursday night, but an imploding bullpen allowed Boston to come back from a huge 7-0 deficit and force a Game 6 on Saturday night with an 8-7 victory.

Josh Beckett will be on the mound for the Red Sox on Saturday. Beckett was pounded by the Rays in his first start of the ALCS, giving up eight earned runs on nine hits over 4 1-3 innings of work. The righthander, though, turned in two strong games against Tampa Bay in September, allowing a combined two earned runs over his 14 innings.

James Shields gets the ball for the Rays in Game 6. Shields was tagged with a loss earlier in this series, but he only surrendered two earned runs on six hits over 7 1-3 innings in that contest. The righthander had been scheduled to start for the team in Game 5, but manager Joe Maddon instead decided to go with Scott Kazmir that night.

The Rest of the Schedule

There are 13 games on a busy National Hockey League schedule on Saturday, including a matinee matchup between the Avalanche and the Stars (2:00pm ET). Dallas is looking to bounce back from a poor 1-2-1 start to the season; they were blasted 6-1 by the Blues in their last outing. The 1-3-0 Avs are coming off a 5-2 win over the Flyers.

Also on the NHL's Saturday schedule: the Rangers at Detroit, the Islanders at Florida, New Jersey at Washington, Buffalo at Atlanta, Toronto at Pittsburgh, Boston at Ottawa, Phoenix at Montreal, Minnesota at Tampa Bay, Columbus at Nashville, Chicago at St. Louis, Calgary at Edmonton, and then Philadelphia at San Jose to close out the night.

As well, there are two Canadian Football League games on the Saturday slate; it's Montreal (-8.5) at Toronto, while Calgary is a 10.5-point home favorite versus Winnipeg.

A Peek at the Future

If the Red Sox manage to stave off elimination again on Saturday the ALCS will continue with Game 7 on Sunday - that game is expected to feature a pitching matchup between Boston's Jon Lester and Tampa Bay's Matt Garza . . . Jimmie Johnson holds a 69-point lead on Jeff Burton in the driver standings heading into the Sprint Cup race at Martinsville on Sunday . . . Formula One will stage the Chinese Grand Prix on Sunday.

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[pm530]

Six-pack for Saturday

With college basketball practice starting this weekend, here is some knowledge to get you started thinking about the season.........

-- Eight of the Pac-10 teams lost their leading scorer, so the league figures to be down a little this season.

-- Indiana has one player back from LY, and he scored 28 points in 22 games; they might be really bad this season.

-- Delonte Hall is an assistant coach who recruited Michael Beasley to Kansas State; he makes an astounding $420,000/year, more than most head coaches in D-I make.

-- Was reading some stuff that said the next highest-paid assistant in the country (that they could find) was Joe Holliday at UNC; he makes $265,000. Assistants at national champ Kansas earn $234K.

-- Washington State has a nice program; all three of their assistants make $110,000, and they all just got raises. Big raises ($25,000).

-- Some of these teams put on quite a production for the first night of practice-- the first games are only four weeks or so away. After tonight, not much fun is left for the players this month.

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[pm530]

Saturday's List of 13: College knowledge for a fall Saturday...

13) Purdue has no takeaways in its last three games, scored total of nine points in their last two contests.

12) Home side won last eight UL-Lafayette-Arkansas State games.

11) Home team is 11-4 vs spread in Pac-10 confeence games.

10) Underdogs covered the first six Big East conference games.

9) Miami Hurricanes converted just four of last 32 on third down, are an awful 23 for their last 74 passing the ball.

8) Alabama is 3-17 vs spread in last twenty tries as home favorite.

7) Big East teams are 4-13 vs spread as non-conference favorites.

6) Road team is 13-5 vs spread in MAC conference games.

5) Underdog covered the last five Eastern Michigan-Akron games.

4) Underdog is 11-3 vs spread in ACC conference games.

3) Home team covered two of first nine Sun Belt league games.

2) Underdog is 13-5 vs spread in SEC games so far.

1) Northwestern failed to cover last seven tries as Big 11 fave, but Purdue is 9-17 vs spread in last 26 tries as a road underdog.

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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Long Sheet

CFL
Long Sheet


Week 17

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Saturday, October 18
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MONTREAL (10 - 5) at TORONTO (4 - 11) - 10/18/2008, 3:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 6-4 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 7-3 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WINNIPEG (6 - 9) at CALGARY (10 - 5) - 10/18/2008, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
CALGARY is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 3-2 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 3-2 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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Sunday, October 19
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HAMILTON (3 - 12) at SASKATCHEWAN (9 - 6) - 10/19/2008, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 125-95 ATS (+20.5 Units) in all games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 125-95 ATS (+20.5 Units) in all lined games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 43-24 ATS (+16.6 Units) when playing on a Sunday since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 114-85 ATS (+20.5 Units) in games played on turf since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 5-0 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 5-0 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Write up

CFL
Write-up


Week 17 CFL games

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Saturday, October 18

Montreal (10-5) @ Toronto (4-11)-- Argonauts lost their last six games, scoring 12.3 ppg; they lost 32-14 at home to Als in Week 8 (+5.5), then lost 45-19 at Montreal three weeks later (+8). Argos lost last four home games, all by 18+ points. Montreal won eight of last ten games, scoring 30+ in every game but one this season (Week 3 vs Calgary). Als lost last two road games, allowing 41-44 points. Last five Toronto games stayed under the total.

Winnipeg (6-9) @ Calgary (10-5)-- Stampeders now lead West after big win vs Riders last week, their fifth win in last six games; they lost 32-28 in Winnipeg in Week 5 (-6), as Bombers passed for 450 yards on just 24 completions. Winnipeg won four of last five games- favorite covered last four contests. Bombers are 2-5 on road, with its losses on foreign soil by 14-9-7-13-14 points. Calgary is 4-2 as a home favorite. Under is 7-3 in last ten Winnipeg games.


Sunday, October 19

Hamilton (3-12) @ Saskatchewan (9-6)-- After starting out season 6-0, host lost six of nine games, getting waxed 42-5 in Calgary last week; they won 33-28 in Hamilton in Week 3 (+3.5), in a game where total yardage was 441-431, Riders. TiCats lost seven of last eight games, covered one of last four; they're 2-4 vs spread in last six road games, losing on road by 27-7-13-5-30-31 points. Under is 8-3 in Saskatchewan's last 11 tilts.

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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Additional Trends

CFL

Trends Sheet


Week 17

Saturday, October 18

3:00 PM MONTREAL vs. TORONTO
Montreal is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Toronto
Montreal is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Toronto is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Toronto is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games


6:30 PM WINNIPEG vs. CALGARY
Winnipeg is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing Calgary
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 6 games when playing Calgary
Calgary is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Calgary is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games



Sunday, October 19

3:00 PM HAMILTON vs. SASKATCHEWAN
Hamilton is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Saskatchewan
Hamilton is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
Saskatchewan is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games

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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Previews and Picks

CFL
Previews and Picks


CFL games – Week 17

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Previews and Picks
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Saturday, October 18

Montreal Alouettes (10-5) at Toronto Argonauts (4-11)

Montreal RB Avon Cobourne suffered an ankle injury during last Monday's 42-11 rout of the Hamilton Tiger-Cats. But Dahrran Diedrick did a fabulous job replacing him in the backfield, showing some of the moves that made him a star running back with the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Diedrick had 15 carries for 127 yards but he’ll return to his fullback duties against the Argonauts. Whoever is carrying the ball for the Alouettes should be successful against Toronto’s poor run defense.

Toronto lost six in a row and nothing indicates it will end the streak against the powerful Al's. So far this season, the two sides met twice and the Alouettes prevailed 32-14 and 45-19.

Pick: Montreal -8



Winnipeg Blue Bombers (6-9) at Calgary Stampeders (10-5)

The Blue Bombers need only one win, or a Toronto loss, to clinch a playoff spot.

Last Friday, against the Argos, the Bombers OL stepped up and opened lanes for running backs Fred Reid and Joe Smith who rushed respectively for 107 and 101 yards. Kevin Glenn completed only 14 of 31 pass attempts for 153 yards.

The question in this matchup is whether or not the Blue Bombers can run the ball as well against Calgary. The answer is most likely no.

Calgary has the stingiest defence against the run, allowing a league-best 84.7 rushing yards per game. The Stampeders are a much better team than the Blue Bombers if you look at almost any statistical category.

Pick: Calgary -10.5



Sunday, October 19

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (3-12) at Saskatchewan Roughriders (9-6)

Once again, the Tiger-Cats are out of the playoff picture.

Jesse Lumsden and Kenton Keith are back in action but both seemed a bit banged up last sunday in Montreal. Quinton Porter, when given enough time, can connect on impressive pass plays and with Preshea Rodriguez, his premier target.

The Saskatchewan Roughriders got whipped 42-5 by Calgary on Sunday, a week after beating the Staps 37-34. Darian Durant has been given the nod to start against the Tiger-Cats. Durant led Saskatchewan to three straight wins early this season. The inflated line should make everyone cautious about this one, but there is too much at stake to imagine the Roughriders letting their guards down in a tight West playoff race.

Pick: Saskatchewan -13

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[pm530]

This Day in MLB

MLB


Saturday, October 18

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This day in Baseball….
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On October 18 in Baseball History...

1910 - The Philadelphia Athletics pounded the Chicago Cubs 9-3 for a 2-0 lead in the World Series. Eddie Collins had three hits, including two doubles, and two stolen bases.

1950 - Connie Mack, at age 87, retired as manager of the Philadelphia Athletics after 50 years, and Jimmy Dykes was named to replace him. Mack, together with Ben Shibe, founded the Athletics in 1901.

1960 - Instituting a mandatory retirement age of 65, New York Yankee co-owners Dan Topping and Del Webb relieve Casey Stengel (1,149-696) as manager.

1967 - The AL approves the Athletics' shift to Oakland. Kansas City is promised a new team by 1971. When Senator Stuart Symington and Kansas City Mayor Ilus Davis threaten action against the move, AL President Joe Cronin reopens talks, and the expansion deadline is moved forward to 1969.

1972 - With runners at second and third and a 3-2 count, the A's fake an intentional walk and strike out Johnny Bench looking in Game Three. Blue Moon Odom fans 11, but Cincinnati's Jack Billingham is the 1-0 winner as the Reds win their first game of the World Series.

1973 - The Mets' Jerry Koosman and Tug McGraw combined to three-hit the Oakland A's and take 3-2 lead in the World Series.

1977 - Reggie Jackson hit three consecutive home runs to lead New York to an 8-4 victory over the Los Angles Dodgers and give the Yankees the World Series title in six games. Jackson drove in five runs, and all three shots came on the first pitch.

1988 - Mark McGwire's home run off Jay Howell in the bottom of the ninth gives Oakland a 2-1 win in Game Three of the World Series.

1992 - Ed Sprague's two-run home run in the ninth inning off Jeff Reardon in Game Two gives Toronto a 5-4 win over Atlanta and evens the World Series.

1997 - The first World Series game ever played in Florida belongs to the Marlins. Moises Alou and Charles Johnson smack back-to-back home runs against Cleveland's Orel Hershiser to make a 7-4 winner of Livan Hernandez in Game One.

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball – Long Sheet

MLB
Long Sheet

If the “Long Sheet” is updated, we will re-post.

American League Championship Series

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Saturday, October 18

BOSTON (100 - 71) at TAMPA BAY (103 - 68) - 8:05 PM
JOSH BECKETT (R) vs. JAMES SHIELDS (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 13-10 (+5.2 Units) against BOSTON this season
13 of 23 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.9 Units)

JOSH BECKETT vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
BECKETT is 5-3 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.93 and a WHIP of 1.155.
His team's record is 5-6 (-4.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-6. (-1.2 units)

JAMES SHIELDS vs. BOSTON since 1997
SHIELDS is 2-5 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 4.81 and a WHIP of 1.212.
His team's record is 2-7 (-5.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-4. (+0.2 units)

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball - Short Sheet

MLB
Short Sheet


Saturday, October 18th

American League Championship Series
Best of Seven
Game Six
Rays Leads, 3-2
TV: TBS
Boston at Tampa Bay, 8:05 ET
Josh Beckett (R) vs. James Shields (R)

Beckett:
0-3 TSR, 9.39 ERA L3 starts
Boston 2-9 at Tampa Bay

Shields:
TB 13-1 at home on Saturday
TB 47-20 as a home favorite

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball – Trend Sheet

MLB



Saturday, October 18

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Trend Sheet
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8:07 PM BOSTON vs. TAMPA BAY
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Boston is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Tampa Bay is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball - Tips & Trends

MLB



Saturday, October 18

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Tips and Trends
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Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays [TBS | 8:07 PM ET]

Red Sox: Josh Beckett will need a much better effort here than in his previous two playoff appearances in which he allowed 18 hits and 12 runs in just 9.1 innings of work. Coming into the postseason, Beckett was 5-3 against the Rays, but they ripped him in Game 2 for eight runs in just 4.1 innings. Both of Beckett’s playoff starts have gone OVER the total.

Red Sox are 2-10 in the last 12 meetings in Tampa Bay.
Red Sox are 1-4 in Beckett’s last 5 road starts vs. Tampa Bay.

Key Injuries - 3B Mike Lowell (back) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4

Rays (-145, O/U 8.5): James Shields will look to turn out the lights on the Red Sox tonight and help the Rays advance to the World Series. Shields lost Game 1 of this series but pitched well, allowing just two runs over 7.1 innings of work. Shields has struggled overall against the Red Sox in his career, going 2-4 with a 5.23 ERA. However, he has been very strong at home, going 9-2 at Tropicana Field with a 2.59 ERA during the regular season and 1-1 in two playoffs starts with a 3.29 ERA.

Rays are 2-7 in Shields' last 9 starts vs. Boston.
The OVER is 14-5 in Tampa Bay's last 19 games on field turf.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 5

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[Udog]

MLB
Dunkel


Boston at Tampa Bay
The Rays look to bounce back from their Game Five meltdown behind starter James Shields, who is 10-3 with a 2.66 ERA in 19 starts at Tropicana Field this season. Tampa Bay is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-145). Here are all of today's games

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 18

Game 925-926: Boston at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Beckett) 15.290; Tampa Bay (Shields) 17.770
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-145); Over

[Udog]

MLB


Saturday, October 18


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Hot Lines: Saturday's best MLB bet
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Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays (-139, 9)

Although the Rays have a 3-2 lead as the AL championship series heads back to St. Petersburg, the Red Sox appear to have the momentum after staving off elimination with the biggest postseason rally in nearly 80 years.

In Game 6 on Saturday, defending World Series champion Boston tries to build off yet another victory in an ALCS elimination game, while Tampa Bay again looks for its first World Series berth in franchise history.

After outscoring the Red Sox 22-5 in winning Games 3 and 4 at Fenway Park to take a 3-1 series lead, the Rays were up 7-0 with two outs in the seventh inning of Game 5 on Thursday. Boston, though, was not about to go down easy.

The Red Sox rallied for four runs in the seventh and three in the eighth to tie the score, and J.D. Drew's two-out RBI single in the ninth drove in the winning run to force a Game 6. It was the largest comeback in a postseason game since the Philadelphia Athletics trailed by eight before a 10-run seventh inning helped them beat the Chicago Cubs 10-8 in Game 4 of the 1929 World Series.

The Red Sox, who rallied from a 3-1 deficit against Cleveland in last year's ALCS and came back from a 3-0 deficit to beat the New York Yankees in the 2004 ALCS, have won eight consecutive ALCS games when facing elimination. Boston went on to sweep the World Series last year and in 2004.

Tampa Bay needs one more victory to win its first AL pennant and is returning to Tropicana Field, where it went a major league-best 57-24 in the regular season.

In Game 6, Maddon will give the ball to James Shields (1-1, 3.29 ERA), who has been his best at home. Boston will counter with Josh Beckett (0-0, 11.57), who is trying to shake off his postseason struggles.

Shields was originally scheduled to pitch Game 5, but Maddon decided to push him back for a possible start at Tropicana Field.

Shields posted a 1.17 ERA in winning his two regular-season starts against the Red Sox in St. Petersburg, compared to a 21.21 ERA in losing his two regular-season starts at Boston.

Beckett entered the postseason 6-2 with a 1.70 ERA in nine career playoff starts, but he's been knocked around this October.

He was tagged for eight runs and nine hits - including home runs by Evan Longoria, Cliff Floyd and B.J. Upton - in 4 1-3 innings of the Red Sox's extra-inning loss in Game 2. Beckett gave up four runs in five innings of Boston's 5-4, 12-inning loss to the Los Angeles Angels in Game 3 of the ALDS.

The right-hander suffered an oblique injury during a bullpen session on Sept. 26, but the MVP of the 2003 World Series for Florida is not using that as an excuse.

"I'm fine," Beckett told the team's official Web site.

Pick: Rays


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